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01-25-2011, 09:09 AM
  #76
Snoil11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post

22-6-4. Give or take a win. Thats the record Calgary needs to have to just make the playoffs.
This one needs more explanation. Last time, a team needed 100 points to just make the play-offs was in...oh, I have to dig deeper...let's wait, I have it in a few seconds...gosh, that never happened before.

Ok, you said, give or take a win. But surprisingly, it has never happened before, that a team needed 98 points to sneak in as the 8th-placed team either.

The last three years, 91 points were sufficient to make the play-offs. The most, any 8th-placed team had to have after the lock-out were the 96 points the Flames got in 2006-2007.

Looking at the 92 point-threshold (cause the Flames have such lousy tie-breakers), the Flames would need a record of 18-10-4. It is still a huge uphill-battle, but prolonging the record they have since Feaster took over, it is feasible.

I don't say they make it (actually, I believe they won't make the play-offs, but I hope I am wrong), but I am sick and tired of naysaysers like you, who keep telling on any occasion how bad the Flames are and are more happy when their own forecasts come true than when the Flames have success.


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01-25-2011, 09:12 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Roughneck View Post
You're being one of those lame *******s who will keep spouting the end and all that so you can say "I told you so" when it happens, but if they make the playoffs you'll say something like "wow, I've never been so happy to be wrong" aren't you? I hate those people.




Why would they need that? Other teams playing like Edmonton will certainly make it easier, but a 6-4 ten game stretch by Calgary with some 4-6 stretches from other teams is enough to eliminate games in hand and put Calgary ahead. While that requires help, its not as difficult as you make it out to be. This team gave up more points to fall out of the playoffs last year than its required to gain to make it in right now this year.

No. Were i actually making a prediction, i could be one of those people. Im just saying 22-6-4 isnt happening. Not exactly a prophecy deserving of an "I told you so"

edit: I also said give or take a win. 98-100 is the region wherein most people project eighth spot to be at. Does 21-7-4 sound more realistic? How about 20-8-4. Heck, how bouts 19-8-5. Any of these really make it much more likely?

edit in response to edit: Colorado was eighth last year with 95 points. You are simply wrong. Look at point projections. Id go as low as 96. Personally i think its going to be higher. Even at that, 20-8-4. Thats Detroit esque numbers. Which is what i have repeatedly said, Calgary will need to maintain the entirety of the season if they want that last spot.


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01-25-2011, 09:19 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
edit: I also said give or take a win. 98-100 is the region wherein most people project eighth spot to be at. Does 21-7-4 sound more realistic? How about 20-8-4. Heck, how bouts 19-8-5. Any of these really make it much more likely?
See above. This number is garbage.

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01-25-2011, 09:22 AM
  #79
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Avalanche are in 8th place right now, on pace for 94 points.

19-8-5 would be enough to get the Flames 95 points, that doesn't guarantee them a spot, but that record or better is entirely possible the way the Flames are playing right now.

Two four game win streaks mixed in with a total record of 11-8-5 isn't unrealistic at all.

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01-25-2011, 09:22 AM
  #80
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its really not as hard as everyones making it out to be. people are just making the easy prediction so they can say i told you so at the end of the year. lame



and btw....flames next three games are very winable games against the blues, preds and blue jackets. win those three and we could be seeing ourselves in 8th. a 6 game win streak is alot to ask for, but after wins over the three teams we've beat this week i dont think beating the other two and nashville again is as hard as it seems.

either way with 30 something games left this year and with everything lining up we could be back in a playoff position in as little as 3-4 games its not as impossible as all you bold predicters are saying



GO FLAMES GO!!!

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01-25-2011, 09:23 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Snoil11 View Post
See above. This number is garbage.
See above. You are stating statistical inaccuracies and negating point projections.

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01-25-2011, 09:26 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Snoil11 View Post
The last three years, 91 points were sufficient to make the play-offs. The most, any 8th-placed team had to have after the lock-out were the 96 points the Flames got in 2006-2007.

Looking at the 92 point-threshold (cause the Flames have such lousy tie-breakers), the Flames would need a record of 18-10-4. It is still a huge uphill-battle, but prolonging the record they have since Feaster took over, it is feasible.
Just wanted to quote this before you realized it was wrong and deleted it. Dont expect La and San Jose to keep pace. Nor Colorado. 96 is a generous number. 20-8-4. Thats being generous.

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01-25-2011, 09:28 AM
  #83
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How is it statistically inaccurate to note that 91 points would have been sufficient for Colorado to make the play-offs?
I know, this point of view does not fit your doomsday and "I-told-you-so"-mentality, but you can tackle the problem of the 8th-seed from both sides.

Btw, my point still stand, that your 98/100-point prediction is an unprecedented event. Does not mean, it cannot happen, but it is rather unlikely.

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01-25-2011, 09:33 AM
  #84
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colorado was eighth with 95 points. Were another team to take eighth spot, they would have needed 96 (or more wins). Since Calgary wont be winning any tiebreakers, they need 1 point higher.

Its not just me saying the west is going to be insane this year. Many people are predicting around 98, give or take a game.

Colorado is currently on pace for 94. Thats not even taking into account the very real probability that either LA or San Jose are going to pick it up and end up with around 100.

More unlikely than 20-8-4? If not, then what does that say about your continued objections?

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01-25-2011, 09:35 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
Just wanted to quote this before you realized it was wrong and deleted it. Dont expect La and San Jose to keep pace. Nor Colorado. 96 is a generous number. 20-8-4. Thats being generous.
lol, this is priceless.

You wanted to quote before he realized it was wrong and deleted it? hahaha

He's exactly right.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 89 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 90 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 91 was enough for 8th

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01-25-2011, 09:36 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
Just wanted to quote this before you realized it was wrong and deleted it. Dont expect La and San Jose to keep pace. Nor Colorado. 96 is a generous number. 20-8-4. Thats being generous.
I love, how everything turns out the worst possible way in your world. Personally, I expect LA and San Jose to make it, same for Chicago, but there are quite a few other teams who have to be taken into account.

Some more nuggets for you: 19 out of the 32 remaining games are at home. While the Saddledome has hardly been a fortress in recent years, our record at home is still better than on the road.

And while speaking of scenarios: why do you rule out the possibility that Kipper finally gets out of his funk and plays the way we are used to it?

Again, I don't think, we'll make it, but it is still possible. Heck, even the guys over at Sports Club Stats, give the Flames a 12%-chance of making it, although their methods do not even consider events which are not reflected in the box score.


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01-25-2011, 09:39 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
Colorado is currently on pace for 94. Thats not even taking into account the very real probability that either LA or San Jose are going to pick it up and end up with around 100.
Fine, let them get 100 points, I don't even think that this is out of the realm of possibility. But 100 points will get them a much higher seed than just 7th or 8th-place. Book it.

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01-25-2011, 09:41 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by BurnEmUp View Post
lol, this is priceless.

You wanted to quote before he realized it was wrong and deleted it? hahaha

He's exactly right.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 89 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 90 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 91 was enough for 8th

No it wasnt enough for eighth because Colorado was in eighth and had 95. Its not in context. We are talking about what it takes to get eighth place, not the differential between eighth and ninth. If someone wanted to make the playoffs last year, they would have needed at least 95 points. Same thing for this year, though i project 98-100.

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01-25-2011, 09:44 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Snoil11 View Post
Fine, let them get 100 points, I don't even think that this is out of the realm of possibility. But 100 points will get them a much higher seed than just 7th or 8th-place. Book it.
why do you argue with him? he's been spouting the same rhetoric since the day he joined the board... people need to ignore him because he's just a canucks fan trying to piss off flames fans

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01-25-2011, 09:44 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoil11 View Post
Fine, let them get 100 points, I don't even think that this is out of the realm of possibility. But 100 points will get them a much higher seed than just 7th or 8th-place. Book it.
Possibly, but that puts Colorado, on pace for 94 into ninth. If they both end up with around 100, which is very likely, then that puts 94 down into tenth.

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01-25-2011, 09:46 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BurnEmUp View Post
lol, this is priceless.

You wanted to quote before he realized it was wrong and deleted it? hahaha

He's exactly right.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 89 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 90 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 91 was enough for 8th
I think there is something wrong with your numbers. Below is corrected since you would need +1 over the 8th place team and not +1 over 9th place team.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 92 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 92 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 96 was enough for 8th

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01-25-2011, 09:47 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
No it wasnt enough for eighth because Colorado was in eighth and had 95. Its not in context. We are talking about what it takes to get eighth place, not the differential between eighth and ninth. If someone wanted to make the playoffs last year, they would have needed at least 95 points. Same thing for this year, though i project 98-100.
To get 8th place you have to be ahead of the 9th place team and behind the 7th place team.

7th
8th
9th

To get 8th place last year the Avalanche needed only 91 points.

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01-25-2011, 09:47 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
why do you argue with him? he's been spouting the same rhetoric since the day he joined the board... people need to ignore him because he's just a canucks fan trying to piss off flames fans
Thats not fair. I have stuck up for many flames players on the main boards (so long as they deserve it).

Its funny you know, the flames mentality. If one isnt delusional in his view of the current state of the franchise, then they are blasphemers meant to be ignored. Personally, i find lucidity an admirable trait.

And i was born in Calgary, and moved to vancouver as a pre-teen right when Bure was drafted. Of course i ended up becoming a Canucks fan. Doesnt mean i lost my love for the Flames though.

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01-25-2011, 09:50 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by BurnEmUp View Post
To get 8th place you have to be ahead of the 9th place team and behind the 7th place team.

7th
8th
9th

To get 8th place last year the Avalanche needed only 91 points.

That doesnt matter, because they had 95. If another team wished to take eighth spot away, which is the current scenario you guys are arguing, they would have needed at least 95/96.

Whats the big deal? Im stating a perfectly reasonable thing and getting **** on for it. Acceptance people, acceptance.

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01-25-2011, 09:54 AM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
Possibly, but that puts Colorado, on pace for 94 into ninth. If they both end up with around 100, which is very likely, then that puts 94 down into tenth.
Assuming all other teams continue at their current pace. Seeing that two of the teams ahead of San Jose and LA are Phoenix and Anaheim and seeing that all these four teams play in the same division, I hardly see how two of those teams keep the current pace while the other two teams vastly improve.

San Jose: 10 games against Anaheim, Phoenix, LA
LA: 9 games against Anaheim, Phoenix, San Jose
Phoenix: 7 games against Anaheim, LA, San Jose
Anaheim: 8 games against LA, Phoenix, San Jose

I guess you solve this puzzle by saying that they will just win all their games against the Flames and >70% of those games go to OT, eh?

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01-25-2011, 09:54 AM
  #96
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To make the playoffs you have to finish ahead of the 9th place team.

How many points did it take for the Avalanche (who finished 8th) to be ahead of the 9th place team?

The answer is 91.

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01-25-2011, 09:57 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by BurnEmUp View Post
To make the playoffs you have to finish ahead of the 9th place team.

How many points did it take for the Avalanche (who finished 8th) to be ahead of the 9th place team?

The answer is 91.

Lol. This is almost humorous. Just to let you know i have a degree in advanced relativistic geometry. Your math is brutal. Just sayin....

a quote from another lucid voice

>>I think there is something wrong with your numbers. Below is corrected since you would need +1 over the 8th place team and not +1 over 9th place team.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 92 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 92 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 96 was enough for 8th<<

Ninth place points is irrelevant. If you want in, you need more than eighth place. Last year Colorado had 95. Irrelevant they only needed 92, because they had 95. So were a team, oh lets say like Calgary, to take that away, they would need 96. Get it yet?

edit: I just dont understand the intense objections. Most respected analysts are predicting eighth spot to be around 98 points.

edit: ps Snoil I predict Anaheim to fall out of contention. So you can negate their games. And yes, its perfectly logical that Phx, La and SJ or Colorado all end up around 100 points.


Last edited by Nachoman AlfieSavage*: 01-25-2011 at 10:12 AM.
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01-25-2011, 10:02 AM
  #98
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Why the hell won't we just throw away our "statistics" and see what our team can do for our city!? THAT is what being a flame fan is all about! We DON'T need to over analyze every little stat to see if we can make it or not! It REALLY irritates me that you guys HAVE to shove statistics in our face...being a Flames fan is hoping and enjoying some good hockey and enjoy the bloody ride! If we make it? GREAT! If not? Another year then! ENJOY THE RIDE!

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01-25-2011, 10:10 AM
  #99
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Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
Lol. This is almost humorous. Just to let you know i have a degree in advanced relativistic geometry. Your math is brutal. Just sayin....

a quote from another lucid voice

>>I think there is something wrong with your numbers. Below is corrected since you would need +1 over the 8th place team and not +1 over 9th place team.

07/08 - 8th Nsh 91 points / 9th Edm 88 points - 92 was enough for 8th
08/09 - 8th Ana 91 points / 9th Min 89 points - 92 was enough for 8th
09/10 - 8th Col 95 points / 9th Stl 90 points - 96 was enough for 8th<<

Ninth place points is irrelevant. If you want in, you need more than eighth place. Last year Colorado had 95. Irrelevant they only needed 92, because they had 95. So were a team, oh lets say like Calgary, to take that away, they would need 96. Get it yet?
Where did you get your degree from? I clearly stated that you would need 96 points in the 09/10 season to be 8th. 92 would have bagged you 8th for the previous 2 seasons (07/08 and 08/09).

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01-25-2011, 10:14 AM
  #100
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Originally Posted by NewtonsApple View Post
There is no way Calgary is making the playoffs.

I don't know. If they keep playing like they have been lately, there's a chance they make the playoffs. It's getting past the first round that I'm not convinced they can do. Winning is contagious, no doubt about it. Even though I would love to see us draft high this year, I can't deny that I'm enjoying this little winning streak they've got going. Unfortunately I've been let down by this team too many times to allow myself to get my hopes too high, so I'll take a wait and see approach.

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