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For those who doubt Dubnyk over Schwarz

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06-27-2004, 12:44 AM
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OilerFan4Life
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For those who doubt Dubnyk over Schwarz

Hey guys! Im kinda new here so dont rough me up too badly, but for those who think taking Dubnyk over Schwarz is a mistake, hear me out.

Would you rather have a small european goaltender (could be an issue with new equipment rules) or would you rather take an Alberta boy like Dubnyk who is an absolute monster in goal and also WHL scholastic player of the year??

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06-27-2004, 12:47 AM
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Yeah small european goalies that are compared to Hasek. Who would want that?


My only positive in regards to Dubnyk over Schwarz is this. Brian Burke loved Schwarz and we all know how good he is at picking goalies . So maybe Dubnyk will turn out to be the better goalie.

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06-27-2004, 12:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elphy101
Yeah small european goalies that are compared to Hasek. Who would want that?


My only positive in regards to Dubnyk over Schwarz is this. Brian Burke loved Schwarz and we all know how good he is at picking goalies . So maybe Dubnyk will turn out to be the better goalie.
compared to Hasek eh??? Well I didnt know that if your compared to an NHLer your gonna turn into him

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06-27-2004, 12:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilerFan4Life
Would you rather have a small european goaltender (could be an issue with new equipment rules) or would you rather take an Alberta boy like Dubnyk who is an absolute monster in goal and also WHL scholastic player of the year??
Not quite a fair comparison in your descriptions. It should probably be more along the lines of...

European goaltender - perhaps a little on the small size - with the best puck-stopping skills and glove in the draft. Smart, huge goaltender who is projected to play like a Sean Burke type goaltender.

One might have trouble with size. The other has problems with consistency and maybe even having too much size if he keeps growing.


I think the big thing isn't that Dubnyk is picked over Schwarz - that's a judgement call that none of us here are qualified to make - but I think it's more along the lines of picking him a little too early.

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06-27-2004, 12:54 AM
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I also wanted to know whether you guys think that Dubnyk would be a favourite to make the WJC team? There hasnt been an Oiler on Canada's world junior team for like 5-6 years.

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06-27-2004, 12:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momentai
Not quite a fair comparison in your descriptions. It should probably be more along the lines of...

European goaltender - perhaps a little on the small size - with the best puck-stopping skills and glove in the draft. Smart, huge goaltender who is projected to play like a Sean Burke type goaltender.

One might have trouble with size. The other has problems with consistency and maybe even having too much size if he keeps growing.


I think the big thing isn't that Dubnyk is picked over Schwarz - that's a judgement call that none of us here are qualified to make - but I think it's more along the lines of picking him a little too early.
I think it was a matter of not knowing who was going to still be available later on. This was a *supposed* weak draft with alot of unpredictibility. Every team's list probably differed alot after the 10th pick. Devan *probably* was still going to be available at 25, but Lowe wasn't leaving that to chance (Like last year with Pouliot)

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06-27-2004, 01:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
I think it was a matter of not knowing who was going to still be available later on. This was a *supposed* weak draft with alot of unpredictibility. Every team's list probably differed alot after the 10th pick. Devan *probably* was still going to be available at 25, but Lowe wasn't leaving that to chance (Like last year with Pouliot)
Perhaps... but when Schwarz fell to Lowe at 14, there had to be some interest there floating around. Even if you only drop a couple spots, it's likely at least one will be available to you. The Pouliot pickup was just as much a risk as this one - perhaps even more so. Pouliot was slated to go around the early 20's so a team right before Edmonton could have selected him first. Dubnyk was likely to go later... with or without unpredictably the risk doesn't seem enough for me.

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06-27-2004, 01:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
Devan *probably* was still going to be available at 25, but Lowe wasn't leaving that to chance (Like last year with Pouliot)
Debates about who's better (Dubnyk vs. Schwartz) aside.......

I agree with you here that Lowe wasn't leaving anything to chance. From what I understand, St. Louis was pretty keen on Dubnyk at #17 - and this seems to be confirmed somewhat in that they another goalie prospect in Schwartz. My guess would be that Lowe picked Dubnyk at #14 for fear of losing him at #17. With 8 other picks to go, it appears he didn't want to take the chance of losing out on a top notch goalie prospect.

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06-27-2004, 01:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by momentai
Perhaps... but when Schwarz fell to Lowe at 14, there had to be some interest there floating around. Even if you only drop a couple spots, it's likely at least one will be available to you. The Pouliot pickup was just as much a risk as this one - perhaps even more so. Pouliot was slated to go around the early 20's so a team right before Edmonton could have selected him first. Dubnyk was likely to go later... with or without unpredictably the risk doesn't seem enough for me.
For the record though, I would have taken Schwarz over Dubnyk 10 out of 10 times.
Talent and potential-wise, I think you have to give the edge to Schwarz right now.

I think 2 things swung the choice the other way (Considering Lowe was set on taking a goalie at 14):

1. The uniqueness & rarity of the situation. A top ranked goalie prospect who'll probably grow into a 6'6/6'7 frame.

2. The ability to keep a Very close eye on the development (I think the Niinimaki/Mikhnov overseas situations have soured the Oil brass. And we know how easy a goalie's development is compared to forwards or defencemen.)

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06-27-2004, 01:20 AM
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I wouldn't be surprised if their were no teams in the immediate vicinity that were willing to move up.

Nashville like Radulov(Poile had to be sure that Edmonton wasn't taking a russian, and it was sensed that Lowe had no interest in him)

New York Islanders took Nokelainen(he had to know that lowe liked Korposikoski more, he could feel pretty confident of Nokelainen falling I think)

St. Louis took Schwarz(however St. Louis already traded for a goalie, they only took schwarz because he fell so far and was too hard to pass up, I don't see them willing to give up assets to move up in this case. Especially when it is unlikely that NYI (Dipietro) or Nashville (Vokoun, Finley)would take a goalie anyway.

Montreal is set in goal as well( they have Theodore, Garon, Michaud and a couple of others, no need for Schwarz or to move up to get Chipchura, I think Gainey was confident he would fall)

Calgary traded down(they don't need a goalie either with Kipper, Krahn, Medvedev and a few others. And I don't see them wanting to trade up to acquire any of Radulov, Nokelainen or Chipchura)

That's five picks down. I'm not sure the Oilers could risk going much further down, without worrying about both Schwarz and Dubnyk being selected on them.

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06-27-2004, 01:39 AM
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I was one who was very disapointed in the drafting of Dubynk. I am from Kamloops so I have had the chance to watch him play a game or two. TSN is pretty darn on the money when they say this guy is huge (although he uses these super flat pads ... strangest thing ever) but he has a ton of trouble with puck handling and does seem to have mental break downs. I was actually suprised he was in the first round ..... he seems ok but I have a lot of fears about this kid from what I saw from him in the playoff games vs the Giants .....

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06-27-2004, 01:46 AM
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How about Dubnyk vs Deslauriers instead? Could they not have picked, say, Chipchura or Nokelainen to go with Schremp?

 
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06-27-2004, 01:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patch101
I was one who was very disapointed in the drafting of Dubynk. I am from Kamloops so I have had the chance to watch him play a game or two. TSN is pretty darn on the money when they say this guy is huge (although he uses these super flat pads ... strangest thing ever) but he has a ton of trouble with puck handling and does seem to have mental break downs. I was actually suprised he was in the first round ..... he seems ok but I have a lot of fears about this kid from what I saw from him in the playoff games vs the Giants .....
Last year Lowe did something which will, for a while, pit 2 players against each other in the minds of Oiler fans (Pouliot vs. Parise). This year is no different (Dubnyk vs. Schwarz). If it was up to me, I would have picked the latter in both cases easily, but what do I know? At least this year we got a great consolation prize at 25.

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06-27-2004, 02:01 AM
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have to agree was disappointed with the oil picking devan over marek. i hope it pans out, however i was happy with the 25th pick.

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06-27-2004, 02:09 AM
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I've said many times that I thought that Schwarz could be, when all is said and done, mentioned in the same breath with the likes of Sawchuk, Plante, Dryden, Roy, Brodeaur, Hasek et al, so needless to say, I was quite disappointed today.

That being said, I think that Kevin Lowe is an innovator. I think he potentially sees an increase in the size of the nets in the future, a radical decrease in the size of equipment, or both. Having a goalie who's 6'7 (or even taller) might be the way of the future. So, I'll trust that Lowe and the scouts know something that I don't, and hope that Dubnyk has one heck of a career, regardless of what Schwarz does (although, now I'll have to become a partial Blues fan)

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06-27-2004, 02:48 AM
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My worst nightmare right now Dubnyk tanks turns into a Turek

my pipe dream would him turning into the Sean Burke that took Phoenix to the playoffs

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06-27-2004, 05:12 AM
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This is all just quibbling - if we took Schremp at #14 and Dubnyk with the 2nd pick - everyone would be praising Lowe.

Maybe - just maybe - the Oiler staff knows thing or 2 and thought St Louis wanted Dubnyk as well. The Oilers were not the only team to pass on Schwarz - a lot of other teams did as well and that DOES means something.

We had a great first round that addressed both needs - goaltending and skilled forward. Who cares which order we took them.

By the way - the Comrie trade now netted us Woywitka and Schremp - nice

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06-27-2004, 05:36 AM
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I'm not upset with the Dubnyk pick. I remember watching the Czechs implode at the WJC this past season and Schwarz wasn't that impressive when the pressure got bigger. Clearly scouts see him more, but I personally was confused that the guy I saw at the WJC was the top goalie prospect at the time (he was no Luongo, Denis or Dipietro). A lot of goalies picked in the first round seem to be busts. Dubnyk could be another Valiquette, or he could be an even bigger Burke. The key may just be to have some more heat on Delauriers. He's going to be starting in the AHL for at least one season and I think it's important to push him 2,3 and 4 years from now.

As for Schremp. I'm very happy. This kid displays some great skill but for me the most important thing is his desire to be a professional hockey player and play in the NHL. Bonsigniore did not have that edge. He should learn fairly quickly, at his first camp, that you have to work your butt off the be an NHL player. He'll have to back up his talk and I for one think he'll do it. He's a great talent, certainly on par and likely better than Comrie. Schremp and Pouliot give the Oilers some legitimate high skill guys. Pouliot was taken, to a large extent, because of his character. Schremp because of his skill. We can't trade for those kind of guys and therefor must draft them. I'm glad they are getting some top end skill. The "busts" seem to be a little less frequent these days with all the testing and interviewing the teams do so I like the odds for these two centermen.

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06-27-2004, 05:58 AM
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Let's not forget the key aspect....

European.

I think that had more to do with it than anything.

With Rita's development being stalled because of being in Europe, with Mikhnov's lengthy stay in Europe and with the Oilers unable to keep tabs on Niinimaki, you'd have to think he Oilers were a bit weary.

They didn't pick a single kid out of Europe, all 4 picks are currently playing in North America.

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06-27-2004, 05:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HemskyFreak83
My worst nightmare right now Dubnyk tanks turns into a Turek

my pipe dream would him turning into the Sean Burke that took Phoenix to the playoffs
Turek has won more playoff series than Burke has

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06-27-2004, 06:41 AM
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Shwartz has had only one year of being a starting goalie in europe and it was on a questionable taem---I just question Dubby head

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06-27-2004, 09:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windowlicker
2. The ability to keep a Very close eye on the development (I think the Niinimaki/Mikhnov overseas situations have soured the Oil brass. And we know how easy a goalie's development is compared to forwards or defencemen.)
This is very astute, and is a factor that I haven't considered. Mikhnov's situation is making me crazy, and Niinimaki's development (injury notwithstanding) seems uncertain, so this may well be a consideration for the Oiler management. Well said.

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06-27-2004, 10:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xerburt
Debates about who's better (Dubnyk vs. Schwartz) aside.......

I agree with you here that Lowe wasn't leaving anything to chance. From what I understand, St. Louis was pretty keen on Dubnyk at #17 - and this seems to be confirmed somewhat in that they another goalie prospect in Schwartz. My guess would be that Lowe picked Dubnyk at #14 for fear of losing him at #17. With 8 other picks to go, it appears he didn't want to take the chance of losing out on a top notch goalie prospect.
Hmm, if St. Louis was also going to pick Dubnyk over Schwartz then maybe the Oilers are on to something?

-edit to correct typo-

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06-27-2004, 11:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilerFan4Life
Hey guys! Im kinda new here so dont rough me up too badly, but for those who think taking Dubnyk over Schwarz is a mistake, hear me out.

Would you rather have a small european goaltender (could be an issue with new equipment rules) or would you rather take an Alberta boy like Dubnyk who is an absolute monster in goal and also WHL scholastic player of the year??
Not a big deal but Dubnyk is actually a Saskatchewan boy. He's from Regina.

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06-27-2004, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kerrly
Not a big deal but Dubnyk is actually a Saskatchewan boy. He's from Regina.
Thats not what he said in his interview with the Journal this morning. He was born in Calgary but his mom grew up in Edmonton and was a huge Oiler fan.

He said he was an Alberta boy and was glad to be picked by an Alberta team. He never mentioned Regina.

Edit - nope he was born in Regina but he said Calgary was home so he considers himself an Alberta boy.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 06-27-2004 at 11:44 AM.
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