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The next 2 games are CRITICAL

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Old
01-25-2011, 11:19 AM
  #1
SLang
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The next 2 games are CRITICAL

As we break down the playoff picture (and let's not kid ourselves, with the hole this team has dug themselves their playoffs start NOW), these next 2 games are critically important.

We play San Jose at home tomorrow, and Minnesota in MIN on 2/1. They gotta beat San Jose because of the obvious divisional situation, and to head into the all star break on a high. Get some rest, then take it to Minnesota next Wednesday.

Then, they continue the big road trip for two games (Edmonton and Calgary) which would be nice to win for the points to counter anything the opposition ahead of us in the conference is doing, but it's not like we're having to leapfrog those teams. In essence, those two suck, and we should beat them, but in reality any team can win on any night. And any Kings team might show up any given night.

Then the really tough part of the trip, 6 games against non-conference teams. Gotta go at least .500 here - Pens, Caps, Flyers, Blue Jackets, Rangers, Islanders.

After that, there are only 4 games against either non-conference teams (CBJ) or teams below them (St Louis, Cal, Edm).

Everything else is a game against a conference rival that is currently ahead in the standings.

To look at how much the Kings control their own destiny, games left against conference rivals ahead of them as of 1/25 are (not including tomorrow's SJ game next Wed's Min game):

Van: 2 games, currently trail by 16 points
Det: 2 games, currently trail by 11 points
Dal: 3 games, currently trail by 10 points
Nsh: 1 game, currently trail by 7 points
Ana: 4 games, currently trail by 5 points
Pho: 2 games, currently trail by 4 points
Chi: 0 games, currently trail by 3 points
Col: 2 games, currently trail by 3 points
SJ: 2 games, currently trail by 2 points (making tomorrow's game critical)
Min: 1 game, currently trail by 0 points (making Wed's game critical)

So, assuming they keep pace overall with the other teams in terms of wins/losses/OTL's the rest of the season, they REALLY need the next 2 games. Wins in those two alone are HUGE for their playoff chances. Win over Min leapfrogs them, and win over SJ ties them. So SJ and Min are definitely catchable.

Obvously, catching Van, Det, Dal, and probably Nsh are out of the question. Maybe Chi too as the Kings are done with them for the year.

Phoenix will be tough to catch with only 2 games against and trailing by 4 points. Similar story with Col but I feel the Kings can win those two so it might be doable.

They REALLY control their own destiny vs. Anaheim trailing by 5 but with 4 games left. I got a feeling those last wo games of the season are going to determine whether of not they make the playoffs.

In short, they can pass Anaheim, San Jose, and Minnesota, for an 8th place finish, but hopefully Col too for 7th so we don't have to face Van in the first round. Pretty tall order passing 4 teams this late in the season, I know. Their current GD suggests they can do it, and they HAVE to start getting to OT in games they've been losing. This league-lowest 1 OTL point stuff is ********.

But, in the end, like Smyth said last night - they need to worry about 20 minutes at a time. Win each 20 minutes, and they do it.

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01-25-2011, 12:05 PM
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Andrew Knoll
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San Jose is the huge game IMO, four-point game that gives the Kings a chance to bank up points before the road trip. If they can pull out wins over Boston and San Jose here, it almost atones for that horrendous home stand they had.

The trip is about 50/50 games they should win on paper versus games they should lose on paper. They are almost all no-risk games with several Eastern Conference teams and then some interdivisional games against teams that probably won't make it from the West. Other than Anaheim, they don't have any four-point games or games that they cannot freely carry into overtime or a shootout. I think they need 12 points hell or high water, it can be six wins or three wins and six overtime losses, it doesn't matter they need the points.

There are winnable games there with Minnesota, the Islanders, Calgary, Edmonton and Columbus. That Alberta swing is almost a guaranteed split for any decent team, hard to sweep but with the quality of those teams it's not easy to lose twice either. Minnesota game is a toss-up, their team is all over the place, some nights they are pretty good.

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01-25-2011, 12:35 PM
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Why should we fear Vancouver in the 1st round? We're 2-0 against them so far this season, including their home opener and a convincing 4-1 victory on our ice. They should be afraid of US.

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01-25-2011, 12:51 PM
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While I think it's important to focus on just making the playoffs - IF they get there I would rather face the Wings - we match up better against them, and we're 2-0 against them also this year (including a convincing 5-0 win on their home ice).

Not to mention Van took us out last year in the 1st round.

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01-25-2011, 01:15 PM
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To be reasonably certain that they will make the playoffs, the kings have to finish with 93 points, going 18 - 11 - 4 in their last 33 games for winning perentage of .606. If we do that our chances of making playoffs are at 85.9%

Finishing with 94 points or above give us a 95% chance of playoff games.
95pts 20 - 11 - 2 .636 winning percentage = 98.6% chance of playoffs
94pts 19 - 11 - 3 .621 winning percentage = 94.9% chance of playoffs

Bottom line is we cant lose more than 11 games in regulation. We need every win we can get. If we lose more than a third of our games, its goodnight Irene.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...fic/Kings.html

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01-25-2011, 01:16 PM
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I look at it this way - right now and 7th and 8th seeds are getting 1.14 points per game (56 points in 49 games). If that pace holds, it's going to take 93-94 points to make the playoffs (thanks to parity).

If the Kings win Wednesday and go 6-3-1 on the 10-gm road trip, we'll be at 68 points in 60 games (1.133). A 7-3 road trip put us at 1.15 and back on pace to make the playoffs.

Bottom line - we've still got some serious winning to do. The 2-10 streak was brutal.

First step is a huge game on Wednesday. Really need a win there going into the All-Star break.

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01-25-2011, 01:42 PM
  #7
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The percentage swings caused by one win or loss right now on Diehard's link are amazing, and emphasize the point.

How many regular season games, in January, can you say that a regulation loss will result in nearly a 10% lowering of the chance of making the playoffs? That's ****ing nuts.


Last edited by SLang: 01-25-2011 at 01:52 PM.
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01-25-2011, 01:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyInARoom View Post
Why should we fear Vancouver in the 1st round? We're 2-0 against them so far this season, including their home opener and a convincing 4-1 victory on our ice. They should be afraid of US.
No team should fear any other team in the playoffs but right now I think both Vancouver in the West and Philadelphia in the East are rather strong top seeds that anyone would want to avoid if possible. They have all the skill of the other elite teams and considerably more depth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SLang View Post
While I think it's important to focus on just making the playoffs - IF they get there I would rather face the Wings - we match up better against them, and we're 2-0 against them also this year (including a convincing 5-0 win on their home ice).
Not to mention Van took us out last year in the 1st round.
A relatively healthy Wings team is just as dangerous and that was maybe the least convincing 5-0 win I have seen. Quick stole that game, he played the best 60 minutes of his career as Detroit played their game by dominating possession and getting plenty of chances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
To be reasonably certain that they will make the playoffs, the kings have to finish with 93 points, going 18 - 11 - 4 in their last 33 games for winning perentage of .606. If we do that our chances of making playoffs are at 85.9%

Finishing with 94 points or above give us a 95% chance of playoff games.
95pts 20 - 11 - 2 .636 winning percentage = 98.6% chance of playoffs
94pts 19 - 11 - 3 .621 winning percentage = 94.9% chance of playoffs

Bottom line is we cant lose more than 11 games in regulation. We need every win we can get. If we lose more than a third of our games, its goodnight Irene.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...fic/Kings.html
Precisely, they have to get it done one way or another. The NHL is not the NFL, no circles on the schedule and game-by-game calls, you just have to get hot and win. In any sport you've got to rip off long winning streaks to get it done.

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01-26-2011, 06:05 AM
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I'll be at the game in Minnesota, and the karma of my Simmonds jersey has yet to fail me or the Kings yet. The one game I didn't wear it they last, lesson learned and it won't be made again...

Great breakdown though on the rest of the season.

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01-26-2011, 07:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyInARoom View Post
Why should we fear Vancouver in the 1st round? We're 2-0 against them so far this season, including their home opener and a convincing 4-1 victory on our ice. They should be afraid of US.
I hope L.A. gets another shot at Vancouver in the playoffs this year.

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01-26-2011, 10:15 AM
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If the Kings lose the next two games, the next two are even more critical. And then the two following that followed by...

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01-26-2011, 11:41 AM
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Butch 19
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Originally Posted by jimmy1100 View Post
If the Kings win Wednesday and go 6-3-1 on the 10-gm road trip, ....
.... I will streak across Staples center ice wearing a beer-drinking helmet just before the opening faceoff, screaming Go KINGS GO!! - Go KINGS GO!! on Thur Feb 24 vs. Minn.

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01-26-2011, 11:56 AM
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If we win this game against the Sharks we are back to 1 point out of the playoffs. Huge game.

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01-26-2011, 11:56 AM
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TonySCV
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If the Kings continue to play like this.. they'll be in the playoffs. If they don't, they won't be. That's pretty much all there is to it.

The Kings have 11 regulation losses they can "afford" to use for the rest of the season. If they can keep the losses in regulation to 11 or less, they're in.

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01-26-2011, 12:29 PM
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Blue And Orange
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All games are citical for the Kings. Come on Kings, you guys are my 2nd favourite team, my oilers are pretty much out of the playoffs for the fifth stragiht year!! GO KINGS (and go oilers)!

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01-26-2011, 01:09 PM
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jimmy1100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Butch 19 View Post
.... I will streak across Staples center ice wearing a beer-drinking helmet just before the opening faceoff, screaming Go KINGS GO!! - Go KINGS GO!! on Thur Feb 24 vs. Minn.
I'm rooting for it to happen. But you don't have to do it before the game. You'd have paid good $ for the tix, so after the game (maybe during the 3 stars?) would be fine.

Hell, I'd be so happy at that point I'd pitch in $ to bail you out of jail.

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01-26-2011, 02:53 PM
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KINGS17
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Aw c'mon you guys we can still win these two games and get a top 10 pick. Oh wait, wrong year.

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01-26-2011, 02:57 PM
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Aw c'mon you guys we can still win these two games and get a top 10 pick. Oh wait, wrong year.

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01-27-2011, 12:53 AM
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20-12.

=95 Pts.

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01-27-2011, 01:43 AM
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5 points out of 4th, 4 points out of 14th...this is going to be a hell of a road trip!

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01-27-2011, 11:00 AM
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SLang
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OK, we got our win against San Jose. Gave up a point doing it but I don't care because I think the Sharks are going to scratch their way into the playoffs anyway.

I think it has to be Anaheim, Colorado, and Minnesota on the outside looking in after the 82nd game.

Now, let me tell you why the NEXT 2 games are extremely critical!.......oh, I guess you already know.....

When it comes to the latest losing streak, I'm subscribing to the old adage that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. And the Kings aren't dead yet.

On to the next 20 minutes!

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01-27-2011, 11:16 AM
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I think it's safe to say the next 32 games are "critical" but if they get pistol whipped on the upcoming 10 game road trip after the AS break they are done.

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