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Old
01-27-2011, 06:26 PM
  #1
HogtownSabresfan
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Sabres playoff math

Consider how the Sabres have played over the last 35 games. They are 20-12-3 after a 3-9-2 start.
That is .614 hockey and would translate into 100 points over the season. At present pace it would give them 40.5 points over the rest of the year or 91 points.
What does it mean? Even at that pace we are a borderline playoff team and one more losing streak, which is likely, and they’re done.
Plus, there is the matter of Miller. He cannot start every game. In March they have 16 games in 30 days. Lalime must start at least two of them, you have to figure.
Bad starts just kill you.

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01-27-2011, 06:58 PM
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Yep.

Points needed to make playoffs in Eastern Conference post-lockout:

2010 - 88 pts (Montreal and Philly)
2009 - 93 (Montreal)
2008 - 94 (Ottawa and Boston)
2007 - 92 (Isles)
2006 - 92 (Tampa)

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01-27-2011, 07:15 PM
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Sabres.html

Right now, we're 2 games above .500, with a 17.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Sell, sell, sell. Get anything you can for UFAs-to-be, especially Connolly. Bring up some kids from Portland and see what you've got. Shop the overpaid guys, hard - Poms, Hecht, Morrisonn, etc. And entertain all serious offers for most of the rest.

This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot. It's about doing an honest evaluation of the core talent on this team, and realizing that it's just not good enough. Maximize the value of what we have right now, and try to make serious improvements by the start of next season.

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01-27-2011, 07:26 PM
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I would trade Connolly anyway even if we're otherwise buyers. He hasn't really contributed that much to our recent run and he's not that great of a playoff player.

Other than that, I doubt there will be any 2nd rounder for Torres/Moore-type trades this season (thankfully), what with the Pegula situation.

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01-27-2011, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Kassian View Post
I would trade Connolly anyway even if we're otherwise buyers. He hasn't really contributed that much to our recent run and he's not that great of a playoff player.

Other than that, I doubt there will be any 2nd rounder for Torres/Moore-type trades this season (thankfully), what with the Pegula situation.
I'm with you. I still want to push for the playoffs but Connolly brings nothing. At the same time, other teams know this. Can we even get a 3rd rounder for him at this point? Plus, he's a decent cap hit. I can't understand how a guy in his contract year just mails it in. It's crazy. He plays hard and he might have squeezed another deal for maybe $2.5-$3million per year on a three-year.
I bet tiny Tim will sign a one-year contract close to $2-million to prove himself and be out of the NHL in two years.

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01-27-2011, 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot.
Playoff home games = $$$$$

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01-27-2011, 08:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Sabres.html

Right now, we're 2 games above .500, with a 17.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Sell, sell, sell. Get anything you can for UFAs-to-be, especially Connolly. Bring up some kids from Portland and see what you've got. Shop the overpaid guys, hard - Poms, Hecht, Morrisonn, etc. And entertain all serious offers for most of the rest.

This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot. It's about doing an honest evaluation of the core talent on this team, and realizing that it's just not good enough. Maximize the value of what we have right now, and try to make serious improvements by the start of next season.
This is all true.

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01-27-2011, 09:12 PM
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My gut is telling me 92 is going to be the number this year. With 33 games remaining, Buffalo will have to 19-11-3. Essentially, they're going to have to play the way they have since their wretched start.

February 13-26 will be the bellwether:

Feb 13: vs NYI
Feb 15: @ Mon
Feb 16: vs TOR
Feb 18: vs STL
Feb 20: vs WAS
Feb 23: vs ATL
Feb 25: vs OTT
Feb 26: vs DET

They gotta get their home mojo going, because that's seven of eight games at home. That stretch will likely determine if they're buyers or sellers.

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01-27-2011, 11:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Sabres.html

Right now, we're 2 games above .500, with a 17.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Sell, sell, sell. Get anything you can for UFAs-to-be, especially Connolly. Bring up some kids from Portland and see what you've got. Shop the overpaid guys, hard - Poms, Hecht, Morrisonn, etc. And entertain all serious offers for most of the rest.

This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot. It's about doing an honest evaluation of the core talent on this team, and realizing that it's just not good enough. Maximize the value of what we have right now, and try to make serious improvements by the start of next season.
Yes it is. At least, it's about aiming for that at a minimum.

No team even close to an 8th spot is going to truly sell.

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01-27-2011, 11:59 PM
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Yes it is. At least, it's about aiming for that at a minimum.

No team even close to an 8th spot is going to truly sell.
Correct. Percentages and stats are generally worthless in sports anyway.

Not that I don't agree that they should sell, because they should, but it isn't going to happen as long as they're this close to a spot.

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01-28-2011, 02:35 AM
  #11
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It wouldn't surprise me if selling actually increased our team's chances. Veterans are vital to a team's success but Jochen Hecht, Craig Rivet and Mike Grier haven't exactly been carrying the team this year.


I don't think Buffalo has much to work with in terms of trading chips though to be honest. So people screaming sale, sale, sale may be disappointed. Buffalo also doesn't exactly have a lot of bodies at the moment so if we do sell we are going to need to get some cheap players that can step into the line-up right now. I fully expect some more our crap for a draft pick your crap for a draft pick type deals this season.

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01-28-2011, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by HogtownSabresfan View Post
I'm with you. I still want to push for the playoffs but Connolly brings nothing. At the same time, other teams know this. Can we even get a 3rd rounder for him at this point? Plus, he's a decent cap hit. I can't understand how a guy in his contract year just mails it in. It's crazy. He plays hard and he might have squeezed another deal for maybe $2.5-$3million per year on a three-year.
I bet tiny Tim will sign a one-year contract close to $2-million to prove himself and be out of the NHL in two years.
If a team that is serious about a run wants to stash him down on the 3rd or 4th line in case of injuries to their premier players, I can see it happening, provided there is cap room.

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01-28-2011, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Moskau View Post
It wouldn't surprise me if selling actually increased our team's chances. Veterans are vital to a team's success but Jochen Hecht, Craig Rivet and Mike Grier haven't exactly been carrying the team this year.
We have no idea how those players have contributed to the recent success. Hecht is usually good in the second half, and watching Grier during the last pre-game skate, he seems to spend a lot of time supporting the younger guys on the team.

I'm not against selling, but I'm not under any delusion that it wouldn't impact the team on the ice.

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01-28-2011, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by schadenfreude View Post
We have no idea how those players have contributed to the recent success. Hecht is usually good in the second half, and watching Grier during the last pre-game skate, he seems to spend a lot of time supporting the younger guys on the team.

I'm not against selling, but I'm not under any delusion that it wouldn't impact the team on the ice.
I think we have pretty good idea on Rivet?

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01-28-2011, 10:43 AM
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playoffs, why are we talkin bout the playoffs?

yeah lets make the playoffs and go get swept by philly and get another mediocre pick.

let face it ppl, with our "top 2" point producing centers out we're done. The team needs to dump those overpaid non producing players we have and give the guys in portland some time like stated before.

you ppl that constantly keep clinging to playoff hopes are the main cause of why this team keeps sucking. Mr Darcy gets scared to move anyone cuz then he thinks the teams playoff caliber and we get screwed in the off season when theres nobody to get, i.e. whats going to happen this upcoming off season if we dont move players for a center now since connollys the 2nd best center on the list of UFA's.

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01-28-2011, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Boose30 View Post
you ppl that constantly keep clinging to playoff hopes are the main cause of why this team keeps sucking. Mr Darcy gets scared to move anyone cuz then he thinks the teams playoff caliber and we get screwed in the off season when theres nobody to get, i.e. whats going to happen this upcoming off season if we dont move players for a center now since connollys the 2nd best center on the list of UFA's.
I...
I didn't know....

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01-28-2011, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Right now, we're 2 games above .500, with a 17.6% chance of making the playoffs.

This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot. It's about doing an honest evaluation of the core talent on this team, and realizing that it's just not good enough. Maximize the value of what we have right now, and try to make serious improvements by the start of next season.
Agree with that. I wonder what the Chance is we will miss the playoffs by 4 or more points
75% ?

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01-28-2011, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
My gut is telling me 92 is going to be the number this year. With 33 games remaining, Buffalo will have to 19-11-3. Essentially, they're going to have to play the way they have since their wretched start.

February 13-26 will be the bellwether:

Feb 13: vs NYI
Feb 15: @ Mon
Feb 16: vs TOR
Feb 18: vs STL
Feb 20: vs WAS
Feb 23: vs ATL
Feb 25: vs OTT
Feb 26: vs DET

They gotta get their home mojo going, because that's seven of eight games at home. That stretch will likely determine if they're buyers or sellers.
And those are all very winnable games. I have my fingers crossed.

Quote:
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you ppl that constantly keep clinging to playoff hopes are the main cause of why this team keeps sucking. Mr Darcy gets scared to move anyone cuz then he thinks the teams playoff caliber and we get screwed in the off season when theres nobody to get, i.e. whats going to happen this upcoming off season if we dont move players for a center now since connollys the 2nd best center on the list of UFA's.
That's funny, I thought it had more to do with the management/coaches/players.

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01-28-2011, 11:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Sabres.html

Right now, we're 2 games above .500, with a 17.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Sell, sell, sell. Get anything you can for UFAs-to-be, especially Connolly. Bring up some kids from Portland and see what you've got. Shop the overpaid guys, hard - Poms, Hecht, Morrisonn, etc. And entertain all serious offers for most of the rest.

This isn't about squeaking into the 8th spot. It's about doing an honest evaluation of the core talent on this team, and realizing that it's just not good enough. Maximize the value of what we have right now, and try to make serious improvements by the start of next season.
That statistical model is pretty pointless. Its pretty much guessing by using simulated seasons going forward based on past performance. Its not very predictive and is more of a reactive to the lastest level of play by a team. It can't account, going forward, for the many variables that are unquantifiable like the play of callups, trades, future injuries, how the team reacts to major injuries, how players react to being given bigger roles, players getting hot or cold, etc.


That model essentially wrote off our chances of making the playoffs after we lost to Calagry 5-2. It was the game right after Roy was injured. We were listed as having a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. Basically we were done.

A model that essentially said this team is done in no way saw the Sabres going 9-3-1 in their next 14gms after the Calgary game (nor did any of us).

Thats because pro sports is unpredictable and many things that happen can't be put in a neat statistical box.


Last edited by joshjull: 01-28-2011 at 12:13 PM.
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01-28-2011, 11:39 AM
  #20
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That statistical model is pretty pointless. Its pretty much guessing at future outcomes based on past results. It can't account for the many variables that are unquantifiable going forward like the play of callups, trades, future injuries, how the team reacts to major injuries, how players react to being given bigger roles, players getting hot or cold, etc.


That model essentially wrote off our chances of making the playoffs after we lost to Calagry 5-2. It was the game right after Roy was injured. We were listed as having a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. Basically we were done.

They're using simulated seasons going forward based on past performance. The problem with that is it can't account for things that can't be accounted for like what I listed above. A model that essentially said this team is done in no way saw the Sabres going 9-3-1 in their next 14gms after the Calgary game (nor did any of us).

Thats because pro sports is unpredicatble and many things that happen can't be put in a neat statistical box.
The model clearly didn't take into account how much better the team would perform without Derek Roy.

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01-28-2011, 11:50 AM
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The model clearly didn't take into account how much better the team would perform without Derek Roy.

Exactly

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01-28-2011, 12:21 PM
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The model clearly didn't take into account how much better the team would perform without Derek Roy.
Awesome.

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01-28-2011, 12:47 PM
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That statistical model is pretty pointless. Its pretty much guessing by using simulated seasons going forward based on past performance. Its not very predictive and is more of a reactive to the lastest level of play by a team. It can't account, going forward, for the many variables that are unquantifiable like the play of callups, trades, future injuries, how the team reacts to major injuries, how players react to being given bigger roles, players getting hot or cold, etc.


That model essentially wrote off our chances of making the playoffs after we lost to Calagry 5-2. It was the game right after Roy was injured. We were listed as having a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. Basically we were done.

A model that essentially said this team is done in no way saw the Sabres going 9-3-1 in their next 14gms after the Calgary game (nor did any of us).

Thats because pro sports is unpredictable and many things that happen can't be put in a neat statistical box.
At some point, decisions have to be made about what to do. This is obviously just a model, and no one can predict the future, but there are pretty large enterprises that exist simply by guessing the odds and taking bets on those odds. It's not perfect, but in the long run, the house wins.

This team going 9-3-1 is a statistical anomaly, and the rest of the season has, and will likely continue to, bear that out. If we weren't sellers before Roy went down, I think the objective facts
very strongly suggest that we should be.

As fans - we can hope for the best, or even believe that it's a good possibility. But if you're a GM - you're not doing your job by coming into work every day wearing rose colored glasses, continuing to believe that your hand picked core is suddenly going to be good enough when the last 3 and half seasons have shown that it's not.

If, at the deadline, we can get the most value for our expiring UFAs and other players that aren't in our future plans, then we're hurting the team by holding onto those players betting on long odds.

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01-28-2011, 02:12 PM
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At some point, decisions have to be made about what to do. This is obviously just a model, and no one can predict the future, but there are pretty large enterprises that exist simply by guessing the odds and taking bets on those odds. It's not perfect, but in the long run, the house wins.

This team going 9-3-1 is a statistical anomaly, and the rest of the season has, and will likely continue to, bear that out. If we weren't sellers before Roy went down, I think the objective facts
very strongly suggest that we should be.

As fans - we can hope for the best, or even believe that it's a good possibility. But if you're a GM - you're not doing your job by coming into work every day wearing rose colored glasses, continuing to believe that your hand picked core is suddenly going to be good enough when the last 3 and half seasons have shown that it's not.

If, at the deadline, we can get the most value for our expiring UFAs and other players that aren't in our future plans, then we're hurting the team by holding onto those players betting on long odds.
A couple of things

1. The house always wins? Please don't try and drag this statistical model into the realm of casinos (the house). It in no way has the level of statistical certainty that games at a casino have. There is too much of an unmeasurable human factor in pro sports to have that level of certainty.


2. Which of these stretches is the anomaly?

-first 14 games on the season, 8pts of a possible 28pts or 29% (3-9-2)
-next 21 games, 24pts of a possible 42pts or 57% (11-8-2)
-last 14 games, 19pts of a possible 28pts or 68% (9-4-1)


3. The current standings and the teams the Sabres are battling

7. Montreal --> 50gms 59pts
8. Atlanta ---> 52gms 57pts
9. Carolina --> 50gms 56pts
10. Buffalo --> 49gms 51pts
11. Florida --> 49gms 49pts


10 of our remaining 33 games left (30%) are against these 4 teams.

Montreal -> 8pts ahead, we have a game in hand and play them 3x
Atlanta --> 6pts ahead, we have 3 games in hand and play them 2x (1 more win than us. If we catch them its a tie breaker in our favor)
Carolina -> 5pts ahead, we have a game in hand and play them 3x
Florida ---> 2pts behind, we play them 2x


Montreal would be a pretty tough to catch. But Atlanta and Carolina are very catchable. We also have a decent amount of control over our chances with them due to the amount of games in hand we have as well as the number of times we play them.

Thats hardly looking at things through rose colored glasses. We are hardly a lock to make it but we have a pretty solid chance.

4. I'm all for trading UFA's to be and RFA's to be that don't fit into things now or going forward. Guys like Connolly, Rivet, Grier, Nieds or Butler. But I'm not trading away someone like Monty with us in a playoff race and he is a big part of the defense.

5. If you want to retool the roster, the trade deadline is not the best time to do it. The offseason when teams have more cap space and can take on bigger contracts is when you try and move out players you don't think fit into your plans. You would have far more teams in play for potential moves than you would at the trade deadline.

6. Whats with the mentality that if the team isn't Cup material, why bother trying to make the playoffs?


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01-28-2011, 04:30 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
A couple of things

1. The house always wins? Please don't try and drag this statistical model into the realm of casinos (the house). It in no way has the level of statistical certainty that games at a casino have. There is too much of an unmeasurable human factor in pro sports to have that level of certainty.


2. Which of these stretches is the anomaly?

-first 14 games on the season, 8pts of a possible 28pts or 29% (3-9-2)
-next 21 games, 24pts of a possible 42pts or 57% (11-8-2)
-last 14 games, 19pts of a possible 28pts or 68% (9-4-1)


3. The current standings and the teams the Sabres are battling

7. Montreal --> 50gms 59pts
8. Atlanta ---> 52gms 57pts
9. Carolina --> 50gms 56pts
10. Buffalo --> 49gms 51pts
11. Florida --> 49gms 49pts


10 of our remaining 33 games left (30%) are against these 4 teams.

Montreal -> 8pts ahead, we have a game in hand and play them 3x
Atlanta --> 6pts ahead, we have 3 games in hand and play them 2x (1 more win than us. If we catch them its a tie breaker in our favor)
Carolina -> 5pts ahead, we have a game in hand and play them 3x
Florida ---> 2pts behind, we play them 2x


Montreal would be a pretty tough to catch. But Atlanta and Carolina are very catchable. We also have a decent amount of control over our chances with them due to the amount of games in hand we have as well as the number of times we play them.

Thats hardly looking at things through rose colored glasses. We are hardly a lock to make it but we have a pretty solid chance.

4. I'm all for trading UFA's to be and RFA's to be that don't fit into things now or going forward. Guys like Connolly, Rivet, Grier, Nieds or Butler. But I'm not trading away someone like Monty with us in a playoff race and he is a big part of the defense.

5. If you want to retool the roster, the trade deadline is not the best time to do it. The offseason when teams have more cap space and can take on bigger contracts is when you try and move out players you don't think fit into your plans. You would have far more teams in play for potential moves than you would at the trade deadline.

6. Whats with the mentality that if the team isn't Cup material, why bother trying to make the playoffs?
I agree, but a quick note on the "wins" tiebreaker. This year the tiebreaker isn't just straight wins, it's (Wins - SO wins)

I don't know how many SOW Atlanta has - and if we'd continue to hold the tiebreaker or not, just putting it out there.

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