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Messier overrated?

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Old
02-06-2013, 01:08 AM
  #326
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckoning View Post
You do realize of course, that a players PPG will decline the longer his career goes on? Comparing the career PPG of someone who played well into his 40s with players who were retired by their early 30s will obviously favour the player with the shorter career. It's incredibly misleading.

And if you still feel that PPG is a valid comparison tool, shouldn't it also be pointed out that Messier's career playoff PPG is higher than all the players you listed except for Gretzky and Lemieux?
despite having way more playoff games than most of them.

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02-06-2013, 01:35 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Who were the opponents? Were any other notable players missing? Who was in net? The W/L record from a few games doesn't tell us anything if we don't have details.
vs boston: 1-3 loss
NYR outshot boston 40-33
healy vs ranford
record vs boston: 3-1

vs buffalo: 3-3 tie
NYR outshot buffalo 58-34
healy vs hasek
record vs buffalo: 2-1-1

vs florida: 3-5 loss
NYR outshot florida 41-33
richter vs vanbiesbrouck
record vs florida: 2-2-1

vs NJD: 2-4 loss
NJD outshot NYR 35-25
richter vs brodeur
record vs NJD: 1-2-2

vs philadelphia: 3-1 win
NYR outshot philadelphia 36-18
richter vs hextall
record vs philadelphia: 3-1-1

vs TBL: 2-3 loss
TBL outshot NYR 29-24
healy vs puppa
record vs TBL: 2-2-1

vs washington: 1-4 loss
washington outshot NYR 33-27
richter vs carey
record vs washington: 2-3-1




'96 flyers without lindros: 3-5-1

vs calgary: 3-1 win
flyers outshot calgary 30-20
hextall vs kidd
record vs calgary: 2-0

vs hartford: 6-1 win
flyers outshot hartford 39-22
snow vs reese/burke
record vs hartford: 3-0-1

vs NJD: 2-4 loss
flyers outshot NJD 29-27
roussel vs terreri
record vs NJD: 2-4-0

vs NJD: 2-3 loss
NJD outshot flyers 33-28
hextall vs brodeur
record vs NJD: 2-4-0

vs NJD: 5-1 win
NJD outshot flyers 35-21
hextall vs brodeur/schwab
record vs NJD: 2-4-0

vs pittsburgh: 4-7 loss
flyers outshot pittsburgh 37-35
snow/roussel vs barrasso/wregget
record vs pittsburgh: 2-2

vs washington: 2-2 tie
flyers outshot washington 20-19
hextall vs carey
record vs washington: 2-2-1

vs florida: 2-4 loss
florida outshot flyers: 26-16
hextall vs vanbisbrouck
record vs florida: 2-2-1

vs boston: 2-4 loss
boston outshot flyers 24-21
hextall vs ranford
record vs boston: 2-2

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02-06-2013, 01:46 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
My problem with stats like that, is that things like who those games were played against, and either team's record against those opponents with either guy in the lineup, gets thrown in the wash. It matters, too (imo), that the Rangers, for example, were ~12 points clear of 8th place Tampa Bay by the time Messier went down for the final stretch of the '95/96 regular season. Compounding that problem was dealing with having replaced Ferraro and Laperriere with 1 goal of Kurri, McSorley, and Churla - loading up at the deadline... but that's yet another tangent.

Point is, how deep are we willing to go to see if those records actually mean anything or not? I mean, observation alone is a pretty valuable tool, too. Does it play second fiddle to trivia?
in all stages of Messier's career, the team was much worse off in the games he didn't play. Yes, even in Vancouver.

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02-06-2013, 03:23 AM
  #329
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Messier one of the all time greats.

Far better than any other centers of his time not named Gretzky or Lemieux.

Guys like Yzerman and Sakic a good tier below...

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02-06-2013, 12:39 PM
  #330
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
in all stages of Messier's career, the team was much worse off in the games he didn't play. Yes, even in Vancouver.
Sure, but the comparison wasn't made to himself, it was made to games played by another team without another player (Fedorov in this case). If you have a way to assign a value to a specific player's potential worth for a specific game/portion of a specific season for purposes of cross-league comparison with other players on other teams, I'd love to see it. It'd be neat to have a framework for discussing whether NYR without Messier for 6 games is actually a bigger loss than, say, DET going without Fedorov for 6 "equivalent" games.

Otherwise, I maintain that the "typical" Team A record without Player A vs Team B record without Player B comparisons sadly lack in substance. Surely games won/lost against "top teams" without Player A "mean more" than games won/lost against "bottom teams" in the same situation.

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02-06-2013, 01:04 PM
  #331
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Messier was an all around player. Scoring, playmaker, strong, fast, faceoffs, toughness, penalty killing, powerplay, clutch and healthy. He was a true leader and because he did not win that many Hart trophys and there were flashier guys playing with or against him than people dismissed Messier. Forgetting all the records hes broke, forgetting all the plays hes made both in the regular season and playoffs.

During his time, you needed his toughness but no one during his time was able to have that intensity and that skill all in one.

He was the Gordie Howe of the 80s and 90s and even the 2000s. He may not have been #1 in Edmonton during their 4 but he was a consistent 2 or 3 and there was many times he did show up as their #1 guy. Many times.He was also their most valuable during the 5th cup. And though he didnt have the best reg season in 94 but he showed up clutch and better than ever in the time needed most.

Initimidation, and lets not forget where he stands on the all time list for total points, total games and PPG. I am sure if they recorded hits, he would also be high on the list

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02-06-2013, 03:11 PM
  #332
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Yep.

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02-06-2013, 03:57 PM
  #333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
in all stages of Messier's career, the team was much worse off in the games he didn't play. Yes, even in Vancouver.
Well, of course... sadly, the Canucks didn't have a better center than him. Although, for 6M a season, they easily could have.

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02-06-2013, 04:11 PM
  #334
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
1996 Rangers
With Messier: 40-21-13
Without Messier: 1-6-1

1996 Red Wings
With Fedorov: 59-12-7
Without Fedorov: 3-1-0
Not enough games missed by either play to draw any conclusions. I suppose it makes for a great narrative, but nothing else.

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02-06-2013, 04:15 PM
  #335
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Not enough games missed by either play to draw any conclusions. I suppose it makes for a great narrative, but nothing else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckoning View Post
Similar to Hockey Outsider's thread about Sakic, I decided to look up Messier's gamelogs to see if there was a significant difference in how his teams did when he was and wasn't in the lineup. Unfortunately, the logs of Hockey-Reference only go back to the '87-'88 season, so I don't have the data from his first 8 seasons, but here's the rest of his career:

Edmonton ('87-'88 to '90-'91):
With Messier: 142-103-36; .569
Without Messier: 15-21-3; .423

NY Rangers ('91-'92 to '96-'97):
With Messier: 224-152-45; .586
Without Messier: 13-20-6; .410

Vancouver ('97-'98 to '99-'00):
With Messier: 71-103-33; .423
Without Messier: 7-24-8; .282

NY Rangers ('00-'01 to '03-'04):
With Messier: 108-145-24; .433
Without Messier: 20-29-2; .412

Is that sample size big enough for you?

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02-06-2013, 11:00 PM
  #336
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Corey Perry? Jose Theodore?
Perry was third in scoring, and led the league in goals. Many, MANY people value goals over assists. He's also a physical player. Hiller was one of the best goalies in the league that year statistically. Visnovsky was 4th in Norris voting and was a postseason all-star, and led all defensemen in scoring with 68 points. Perry nabbed the 1st-team spot at RW, and teammate Selanne was 4th! Ryan Getzlaf, who only played 67 games, scored 76 points and was 7th in center voting. Bobby Ryan was 12th in LW voting. The Ducks had four ELITE forwards. What made Perry more valuable than St. Louis or D.Sedin, who outscored him? What made him more valuable than top-ten scorers Iginla, Zetterberg, or Ovechkin? All of the last three had large gaps to the next player on their team just like Perry, but they didn't have a bunch of other high-end scorers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
despite having way more playoff games than most of them.
And all or almost all are in his prime. How rare is it for a guy to have played a large number of playoff games in his career, but none/almost none outside of his prime?

The Red Wings went to the Campbell Conference Finals in 1987 and 1988. What if they go that deep or further every year through 1994, plus Yzerman isn't injured for the 1988 run? Let's say an average of 16 games per postseason (the same as was played in 1987). We'll take 1987 at face, and then project further years to 16 games each. That gives Yzerman these numbers:

1987: 16GP, 5-13-18
1988: 16GP, 5-16-21
1989: 16GP, 13-13-26
1990: No playoffs
1991: 16GP, 7-7-14
1992: 16GP, 4-7-11
1993: 16GP, 9-7-16
1994: 16GP, 5-16-21
Total: 128GP, 48-79-127

It's true that Messier has more impressive playoff scoring numbers. However, in the 80s he was in his prime and never had to worry about the opposing team's top defensive units. With New York he had almost no defensive duties placed upon him; hi main role was to go out and score. Yzerman was used in a defensive role against top players as far back the mid 80s. Such as 1987, when Demers put him against Gretzky in the playoffs to shut Gretzky down.

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02-06-2013, 11:03 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
Is that sample size big enough for you?
Who were the opponents.

If you're so insistent that Messier was insanely valuable everywhere (even Vancouver) then get that information and show it. Show us that the opponents weren't already better teams, or that the teams the Wings faced without Fedorov weren't cakewalks, etc.

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02-06-2013, 11:45 PM
  #338
Kyle McMahon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Who were the opponents.

If you're so insistent that Messier was insanely valuable everywhere (even Vancouver) then get that information and show it. Show us that the opponents weren't already better teams, or that the teams the Wings faced without Fedorov weren't cakewalks, etc.
So two full seasons worth of missed games isn't enough for you to draw a conclusion. Pretty sure over the course of around 170 missed games there was a healthy dose of good, bad, and average opponents. It's pretty ridiculous to assume otherwise.

Since you brought up the 87 and 88 Campbell finals in some sort of fantasy scenario where Yzerman plays 16 playoff games every year, it reminds me of a real quote I saw. After the Oilers beat the Wings in 1988, Demers summed up the series loss by saying "too much Mark Messier". Gretzky was having the playoff run of all time, yet Demers felt Messier was the tipping point. Interesting.

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02-07-2013, 12:00 AM
  #339
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
So two full seasons worth of missed games isn't enough for you to draw a conclusion. Pretty sure over the course of around 170 missed games there was a healthy dose of good, bad, and average opponents. It's pretty ridiculous to assume otherwise.

Since you brought up the 87 and 88 Campbell finals in some sort of fantasy scenario where Yzerman plays 16 playoff games every year, it reminds me of a real quote I saw. After the Oilers beat the Wings in 1988, Demers summed up the series loss by saying "too much Mark Messier". Gretzky was having the playoff run of all time, yet Demers felt Messier was the tipping point. Interesting.
In 1988, Yzerman was also out injured until game three of the CCF.

If you recall, Yzerman was controlling Gretzky in 1987. A half-healthy Yzerman played the final three games of the 1988 CCF, but the big thing is that with John Chabot as your only capable defensive center, you have to pick between putting him on Gretzky or Messier. If Chabot's playing against Gretzky, then who was Messier against? Oates? Burr? He basically had total freedom because of Yzerman's injury crippling the Wings' defensive depth.

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02-07-2013, 12:04 AM
  #340
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
So two full seasons worth of missed games isn't enough for you to draw a conclusion. Pretty sure over the course of around 170 missed games there was a healthy dose of good, bad, and average opponents. It's pretty ridiculous to assume otherwise.
naw, messier was a lazy crafty batard. always pretended to be hurt against the tough teams. always was magically healthy again when it was time to play vancouver or LA.

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02-07-2013, 12:07 AM
  #341
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
naw, messier was a lazy crafty batard. always pretended to be hurt against the tough teams. always was magically healthy again when it was time to play vancouver or LA.
Instead of insinuating things with misspelled jokes, why don't you just say them open-faced?

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02-07-2013, 12:11 AM
  #342
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Instead of insinuating things with misspelled jokes, why don't you just say them open-faced?
Ridiculous arguments often promp silly responses. I mean seriously, 170 missed games over a career in which his team performed much worse than when he was healthy, and you need to see who the opponents were?

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02-07-2013, 12:20 AM
  #343
vadim sharifijanov
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excuse me for trying to class this place up with a little french

http://dictionary.reverso.net/french-english/batard

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02-07-2013, 12:30 AM
  #344
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
In 1988, Yzerman was also out injured until game three of the CCF.

If you recall, Yzerman was controlling Gretzky in 1987. A half-healthy Yzerman played the final three games of the 1988 CCF, but the big thing is that with John Chabot as your only capable defensive center, you have to pick between putting him on Gretzky or Messier. If Chabot's playing against Gretzky, then who was Messier against? Oates? Burr? He basically had total freedom because of Yzerman's injury crippling the Wings' defensive depth.
Dude. The Ded Things got bounced in five games ffs.

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02-07-2013, 12:39 AM
  #345
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Perry was third in scoring, and led the league in goals. Many, MANY people value goals over assists. He's also a physical player. Hiller was one of the best goalies in the league that year statistically. Visnovsky was 4th in Norris voting and was a postseason all-star, and led all defensemen in scoring with 68 points. Perry nabbed the 1st-team spot at RW, and teammate Selanne was 4th! Ryan Getzlaf, who only played 67 games, scored 76 points and was 7th in center voting. Bobby Ryan was 12th in LW voting. The Ducks had four ELITE forwards. What made Perry more valuable than St. Louis or D.Sedin, who outscored him? What made him more valuable than top-ten scorers Iginla, Zetterberg, or Ovechkin? All of the last three had large gaps to the next player on their team just like Perry, but they didn't have a bunch of other high-end scorers.



And all or almost all are in his prime. How rare is it for a guy to have played a large number of playoff games in his career, but none/almost none outside of his prime?

The Red Wings went to the Campbell Conference Finals in 1987 and 1988. What if they go that deep or further every year through 1994, plus Yzerman isn't injured for the 1988 run? Let's say an average of 16 games per postseason (the same as was played in 1987). We'll take 1987 at face, and then project further years to 16 games each. That gives Yzerman these numbers:

1987: 16GP, 5-13-18
1988: 16GP, 5-16-21
1989: 16GP, 13-13-26
1990: No playoffs
1991: 16GP, 7-7-14
1992: 16GP, 4-7-11
1993: 16GP, 9-7-16
1994: 16GP, 5-16-21
Total: 128GP, 48-79-127

It's true that Messier has more impressive playoff scoring numbers. However, in the 80s he was in his prime and never had to worry about the opposing team's top defensive units.
Quote:
With New York he had almost no defensive duties placed upon him; hi main role was to go out and score. Yzerman was used in a defensive role against top players as far back the mid 80s.
Such as 1987, when Demers put him against Gretzky in the playoffs to shut Gretzky down.
Flat out wrong on so many levels.

Messier was the primary defensive zone faceoff taker in every season as a Ranger except for the few months Criag Mactavish played.

Did you watch the 1994 or 1997 playoffs? Messier and Anderson were the secondary PK team (Mactavish and Larmer/Tikkanen were first) and Messier and Tikkanen in 1997. Messier logged a ton of ice time from draws in the defensive zone.

You mention 1987 with Yzerman. How about 1992, 1993 and 1994 when Yzerman was torched left and right by Roenick, Gilmour and Larionov?

Yzerman played on a line with Gerry Gallant and Dino Ciccarelli..as stupid as Bryan Murray is/was, even he didnt match up Yzerman against top lines. When he did in the early 1990s, it burned the Wings.

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02-07-2013, 12:39 AM
  #346
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Originally Posted by SaintPatrick33 View Post
Dude. The Ded Things got bounced in five games ffs.
But Yzerman controlled a concussed Gretzky! It was so much better than anything Messier has ever done!

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02-07-2013, 12:45 AM
  #347
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
But Yzerman controlled a concussed Gretzky! It was so much better than anything Messier has ever done!
And don't you know that coward Messier shot himself in the foot to avoid playing tough opponents then magically healed himself when the weak sisters came to town

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02-07-2013, 12:48 AM
  #348
seventieslord
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Yes... "what if" Yzerman routinely took his teams as far as Messier took his. Indeed.

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02-07-2013, 12:54 AM
  #349
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
naw, messier was a lazy crafty batard. always pretended to be hurt against the tough teams. always was magically healthy again when it was time to play vancouver or LA.
Not seeing much evidence of this. In his last few years of Edmonton that there's data for on hockey-reference, he missed as many games against 500- teams as he did against 500+ ones. In Vancouver, he missed more games against bottom-half teams than top half (keeping in mind how incredibly terrible the Canucks were without him). Didn't look like a lot of dodging going on. Selective memory?

edit- oops, but anyway, at least I confirmed for myself that the sample size for Messier's games missed is as fair as you could expect it to be


Last edited by revolverjgw: 02-07-2013 at 01:08 AM.
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02-07-2013, 12:58 AM
  #350
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Not seeing much evidence of this. In his last few years of Edmonton that there's data for on hockey-reference, he missed as many games against 500- teams as he did against 500+ ones. In Vancouver, he missed more games against bottom-half teams than top half (keeping in mind how incredibly terrible the Canucks were without him). Didn't look like a lot of dodging going on. Selective memory?
He's being sarcastic.

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