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ATD 2011 Draft Thread III

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Old
02-07-2011, 06:27 PM
  #151
hungryhungryhippy
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On one hand a line with the two Hull's playing together looks so awesome, but it's also such a waste (law of diminishing returns).

In real life, it would look like this I think:

Hull - XXX - XXX
XXX - Forsberg - Hull

but the fantasy world of the ATD is a different story

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02-07-2011, 06:27 PM
  #152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
I think it would take more than billions , but it is almost sure to happen yeah.Or they could all write the same thing.
Well it depends on how much time you have as well of course.

According to "The Blind Watchmaker" by Richard Dawkins (great book about the applications of probability to science) it actually might not happen because monkeys dont type randomly. They favor certain keys and type them repeatedly. So if you put a monkey in front of a typewriter it wouldn't be ajbeuyxoiemebydixhvylaioijhx so much as kkkkkllllslslllllllllsssskkkkslllllllllllllllll.

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02-07-2011, 06:27 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
I think it would take more than billions , but it is almost sure to happen yeah.Or they could all write the same thing.
Someone tell LL to get all his buddies on it so we can find out.

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Old
02-07-2011, 06:28 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by vancityluongo View Post
Someone tell LL to get all his buddies on it so we can find out.
I lol'ed , and still waiting for your pm reply.

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Old
02-07-2011, 06:30 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
On one hand a line with the two Hull's playing together looks so awesome, but it's also such a waste (law of diminishing returns).

In real life, it would look like this I think:

Hull - XXX - XXX
XXX - Forsberg - Hull

but the fantasy world of the ATD is a different story
Probably the most sense given the real life situations- Bobby playing with rather poor linemates (him and Mikita didn't play together, at ES at least), Brett doing his best work with one of the greatest playmakers ever.

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Old
02-07-2011, 06:32 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Probably the most sense given the real life situations- Bobby playing with rather poor linemates (him and Mikita didn't play together, at ES at least), Brett doing his best work with one of the greatest playmakers ever.
Exactly.

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02-07-2011, 06:33 PM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cognition View Post
Well it depends on how much time you have as well of course.

According to "The Blind Watchmaker" by Richard Dawkins (great book about the applications of probability to science) it actually might not happen because monkeys dont type randomly. They favor certain keys and type them repeatedly. So if you put a monkey in front of a typewriter it wouldn't be ajbeuyxoiemebydixhvylaioijhx so much as kkkkkllllslslllllllllsssskkkkslllllllllllllllll.
but if they're a billion monkeys typing together it's almost sure some smarter monkeys will do something differant and the other are likely to imitate them and all of this bringing some strange competition vibe which would ressemble an evolution.They would probably break that habit sooner or later.

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02-07-2011, 06:42 PM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
but if they're a billion monkeys typing together it's almost sure some smarter monkeys will do something differant and the other are likely to imitate them and all of this bringing some strange competition vibe which would ressemble an evolution.They would probably break that habit sooner or later.
Maybe, but the odds would be lower than if the keystrokes were randomized.

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02-07-2011, 06:46 PM
  #159
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I'm not debating that Tremblay was a great playoff performer, I'm saying that Beliveau was better. Beliveau's got plenty of quotes that say he was great in the playoffs too.

Quote:
Just as dangerous during the high-pressure playoffs, he notched 79 goals and 176 points in 162 Stanley Cup games. ...
http://books.google.com/books?id=SYE...ed=0CDwQ6AEwAg

Quote:
In '65 he won the first ever Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP and he was almost as good in his last year in '71.
http://books.google.com/books?id=B55...ayoffs&f=false

Quote:
Jean Beliveau and Terry Sawchuk, two of the greatest Stanley Cup performers in NHL history,...
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...playoffs&hl=en

Quote:
Beliveau sparks team to playoff win...
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...playoffs&hl=en

Quote:
It was Beliveau whose sensational goal scoring and playmaking keyed the Canadiens to their seven game Stanley Cup triumph over the Chicago Blackhawks last spring.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...playoffs&hl=en

Quote:
Jean Beliveau and Henri Richard are playing their best hockey right now.

-In reference to playoffs, published April 10th, 1965
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...playoffs&hl=en

Quote:
In recent years, the Canadiens have been a super team only if Beliveau, the veteran captain, was capable of making them that way.

Beliveau, almost single-handedly, carried Canadiens into the playoffs and on to a Stanley Cup championship.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...playoffs&hl=en

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:18 PM
  #160
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*yawn* ....

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:18 PM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
On one hand a line with the two Hull's playing together looks so awesome, but it's also such a waste (law of diminishing returns).

In real life, it would look like this I think:

Hull - XXX - XXX
XXX - Forsberg - Hull

but the fantasy world of the ATD is a different story

Bobby will be a man on his own in that case since this is a 40 team draft, unless he wants to ignore defence until the end.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:24 PM
  #162
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Now that Hooley Smith is taken, I don't feel bad about posting this:

... speedy Ottawa club ... Individually and collectively, Dave Gill, the manager of the Senators, has gathered together a great hockey outfit. It has developed team play to a high point of perfection and as skaters and stick handlers Ottawa has stars who are masters at their particular lines of endeavor on the ice. On the forward line there are Frank Nighbor at centre and Hooley Smith and Cy Denneny at the wing position. Here is a trio which can sweep down the rink in unison and with speed which is likely to upset the most stubborn wall of defense at any time. - New York Times, Jan. 10, 1926

And a nice quote on King Clancy:

Although weighing only 160 pounds, he is a constant hazard to much heavier players.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:30 PM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Hull - XXX - XXX
XXX - Forsberg - Hull

but the fantasy world of the ATD is a different story
Other GMs will be evaluating your team based on how it's imaged it would fare in the real world if assembled, so there is no different story. This is not a computer simulation. It's a reflection on the counterfactual conditions of reality, on what-ifs and on our best estimation of actual dynamics, capabilities and performances as evidenced in hockey history. Putting all three stars on the top line could work in some cases, but in others it clearly is contrary to how those players play best. Bobby Hull as 1st line left wing and Forsberg as 2nd line pivot (if on the same team) is best for an ATD squad, for several reasons.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:30 PM
  #164
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Do you guys ever get to the point where you have no idea who to take? I mean, you know which guys you want to take, you just can't decide which one to actually decide on because the pick could lead your team in so many different directions.

I don't even know what position my next pick should be, I keep flip-flopping.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:31 PM
  #165
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I know exactly who I want with my next pick.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:32 PM
  #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Do you guys ever get to the point where you have no idea who to take? I mean, you know which guys you want to take, you just can't decide which one to actually decide on because the pick could lead your team in so many different directions.

I don't even know what position my next pick should be, I keep flip-flopping.
I think most are looking at it like ''Ok in round 3 I'm taking a defenceman...which one is the best'' etc. I don't think anyone is taking the BPA at this point or then how the hell does Gilbert Perreault fall to 112.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:38 PM
  #167
hungryhungryhippy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustOneOfTheGuys View Post
Other GMs will be evaluating your team based on how it's imaged it would fare in the real world if assembled, so there is no different story. This is not a computer simulation. It's a reflection on the counterfactual conditions of reality, on what-ifs and on our best estimation of actual dynamics, capabilities and performances as evidenced in hockey history. Putting all three stars on the top line could work in some cases, but in others it clearly is contrary to how those players play best. Bobby Hull as 1st line left wing and Forsberg as 2nd line pivot (if on the same team) is best for an ATD squad, for several reasons.
Oh, I agree with you. Heck, I probably analyze teams and matchups more subjectively than anyone else; I'm more interested in creativity and team building than stat-based relativity (which is how I think most people end up evaluating teams, contrary to the first sentence of your post).

I just think that, from my perceptions, the way coaches and General Managers build and run teams in real life is a lot different than the way we imagine they have to be when we look at teams on paper (aesthetically). There are all sort of stigmas that exist in such a format.

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02-07-2011, 07:43 PM
  #168
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Also, I have fixed up the Denneny bio, so if you guys are interested, check it out (linked in my roster post). I'll be adding as much more as I can find.

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:45 PM
  #169
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Chaos Theory.

Quote:
28. Al MacInnis, D
51. Chris Pronger, D
106. Scott Niedermayer
Quote:
38. Milt Schmidt, C
40. Syl Apps Sr., C
53. Mats Sundin, C
57. Joe Malone, C
70. Henri Richard, C
102. Nels Stewart, C
112. Gilbert Perreault, C
Quote:
59. Frank Mahovlich, LW
71. Dickie Moore, LW
89. Anatoli Firsov, LW
92. Alexander Ovechkin, LW
96. Cy Denneny, LW

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:48 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Do you guys ever get to the point where you have no idea who to take? I mean, you know which guys you want to take, you just can't decide which one to actually decide on because the pick could lead your team in so many different directions.

I don't even know what position my next pick should be, I keep flip-flopping.
I always know who to pick , but I'm a genius , so I don't count

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Old
02-07-2011, 07:57 PM
  #171
hungryhungryhippy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustOneOfTheGuys View Post
Chaos Theory.
What's chaos theory?

Nice to see you around though, btw, you've been pretty quiet this draft. I hope that "1 foot out the door" title under your name isn't an allusion to the ATD.

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02-07-2011, 07:58 PM
  #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
LL could have taken Perreault and had the best 1st line in the draft easily....Lindsay-Perreault-Conacher, sick.
I mulled over him offcourse but i needed a quality top 20 dman and i felt that neidermyer was the choice that i had to make.

Ill be sure to plant phil kessel there instead lol

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02-07-2011, 08:08 PM
  #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
What's chaos theory?

Nice to see you around though, btw, you've been pretty quiet this draft. I hope that "1 foot out the door" title under your name isn't an allusion to the ATD.
If I'm not mistaken, the theory that everything is kind of connected in a chaotic manner (specific, I know). Essentially, everything affects everything else in a sense. A butterfly flaps it's wings in Brazil and thus their is a hurricane in Florida.

Or something like that- that's about what I remember from a small presentation I saw once for it.

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02-07-2011, 08:18 PM
  #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
What's chaos theory?

Nice to see you around though, btw, you've been pretty quiet this draft. I hope that "1 foot out the door" title under your name isn't an allusion to the ATD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
If I'm not mistaken, the theory that everything is kind of connected in a chaotic manner (specific, I know). Essentially, everything affects everything else in a sense. A butterfly flaps it's wings in Brazil and thus their is a hurricane in Florida.

Or something like that- that's about what I remember from a small presentation I saw once for it.
Not exactly. It's a deterministic system (i.e. no randomness, everything that happens in it is based on the initial conditions) where slight changes at one point cause exponentially large changes later on, making it impossible to track because our measuring instruments are never perfectly precise. So it appears random despite not being random.

For instance, if you drop a roll along a perfectly flat slope, and you know its exact size, and weight, and the friction, and the air resistance, etc. you can calculate exactly where it will be one minute later. None of those calculations will be infinitely accurate, but that doesn't matter, because if your calculation of its, say, weight is only a percent or so off, your calculation of where it will be later will only be a percent or so off, so you know where it will be within a fairly small range.

However, if you drop a ball down a surface with lots of hills and troughs at random places and tons of curves, all different degrees and shapes, it's impossible to calculate where it will be a minute later. If you calculation of the speed at which you rolled it, or its weight, or the wind resistance, is off by just 1%, that 1% difference will become exponentially larger when a hill it hits differently puts it in a totally different direction, which will make it hit another hill in a way you weren't close to expecting, and so on and so on, so that it ends up in a place completely different from where you expected.

Basically, a chaotic system is one where the effects of an inaccuracy in initial measurement (and no measurement is perfectly accurate) will grow exponentially, making it impossible to track. A non-chaotic system is where the inexactness of the initial measurements is roughly proportionate to the inexactness of the results.

The term "chaos theory" makes it sounds a lot more cosmological and philosophical than it really is, and that's why you hear about it from high schoolers trying to impress their friends all the time. It's not some kind of theory about the universe. It's a mathematical fact that it exists. The only question is what systems it applies to and which it doesn't, but that's not a major intellectual question, just a question of the physical nature of the system in question.

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Old
02-07-2011, 08:22 PM
  #175
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I don't think there is anything new in these quotes, but it's nice to get it from the mouths of people who were on the ice with Nels Stewart.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooper Smeaton
Take a goal-scorer like Stewart. In today’s game he’d score 100 goals. He was terrific in front of the net, a big strong fellow who had moves like a cat. Stewart never seemed to be paying any attention to where the puck was and, if you were checking him, he’d even hold little conversations with you; but the minute he’d see the puck coming his way, he’d bump you, take the puck, and go off and score.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Hewitson
There were some who had exaggerated reputations. Take Nels Stewart of the Maroons. He held the career goal-scoring record before Rocket Richard broke it but I never thought he was such a great player. Nels was big and tall but awfully lazy. He wouldn’t backcheck and he’d just stand around the net waiting for the centering pass, then flip the puck in. That much he could do. We used to say that Nes stood in one spot all the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myles Lane
Nels Stewart was another great. He was slow but deadly with the stick and tremendous around the net.
... basically, all stuff we already knew

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