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ATD 2011 Draft Thread III

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Old
02-07-2011, 09:22 PM
  #176
VanIslander
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Chaos theory is a last ditch effort to explain the relationship between two or more apparently unconnected events. The draft list order and the gaps between picks are staggering to the intellect without resort to something as tenuous as chaos theory. There have been some real wonky picks and gaps between picks this draft. Guess that comes with the territory since it's a 40-teamer this time around.

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02-07-2011, 09:35 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustOneOfTheGuys View Post
Chaos theory is a last ditch effort to explain the relationship between two or more apparently unconnected events. The draft list order and the gaps between picks are staggering to the intellect without resort to something as tenuous as chaos theory. There have been some real wonky picks and gaps between picks this draft. Guess that comes with the territory since it's a 40-teamer this time around.
But at the same time the top 115 of this draft is eerily identical to the top 115 last time....give or take only 2 or 3 players. Obviously everyone is looking ocver what happened last draft to help them decide.

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02-07-2011, 10:11 PM
  #178
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Seriously... I can't ****ing decide what direction to take my team with this next pick. I have so many different conflicting ideas. I've considered a million different factors.

It's getting to the point where I might just trade down way down... any takers?

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02-07-2011, 10:22 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Seriously... I can't ****ing decide what direction to take my team with this next pick. I have so many different conflicting ideas. I've considered a million different factors.

It's getting to the point where I might just trade down way down... any takers?
I would.... but I doubt you want to take the 233rd pick off my hads

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02-07-2011, 10:22 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Seriously... I can't ****ing decide what direction to take my team with this next pick. I have so many different conflicting ideas. I've considered a million different factors.

It's getting to the point where I might just trade down way down... any takers?
I've been trying to move up for a while now...I think my guy(s) will be there at your pick.

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02-07-2011, 10:30 PM
  #181
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Ok guys i've been waiting all night to pick. How much time till i can select

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02-07-2011, 10:33 PM
  #182
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Ok guys i've been waiting all night to pick. How much time till i can select
current clock expires in about 2.5 hours.

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02-07-2011, 10:39 PM
  #183
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current clock expires in about 2.5 hours.
I'll be up for about an hour or so. I'll check back but I might need to send someone a 2 player list

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02-07-2011, 10:39 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
Seriously... I can't ****ing decide what direction to take my team with this next pick. I have so many different conflicting ideas. I've considered a million different factors.

It's getting to the point where I might just trade down way down... any takers?
I believe it was David Conte who said that if you don't love tha BPA then trade down. That's why I traded the 97th.

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02-07-2011, 10:43 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by JFA87-66-99 View Post
I'll be up for about an hour or so. I'll check back but I might need to send someone a 2 player list
I pick one spot after and will be around for six or seven hours.

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02-07-2011, 10:44 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by JFA87-66-99 View Post
I'll be up for about an hour or so. I'll check back but I might need to send someone a 2 player list
You should send someone a list anyways.

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02-07-2011, 10:47 PM
  #187
hungryhungryhippy
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
I believe it was David Conte who said that if you don't love tha BPA then trade down. That's why I traded the 97th.
Yeah, I got into the habit of doing that in my last draft, and I think it hurt me (the lack of decisiveness).

Regardless, it looks like I'm trading down because I got an appealing offer from someone.

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02-07-2011, 11:07 PM
  #188
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trading up is where it's at ( just kidding )

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02-07-2011, 11:14 PM
  #189
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Trading up is good and bad. You have to give up someone to make it interesting, so losing the depth hurts.

If Gilbert Perreault is sitting there to be taken at #110 then trading up is a good thing, for example.

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02-07-2011, 11:24 PM
  #190
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I'll be back on here at 10 Triple H.

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02-07-2011, 11:26 PM
  #191
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Next pick is up at 12:56am EST, about an hour and a half from now. I'll be ready to update the list then.


Last edited by Derick*: 02-08-2011 at 12:17 AM.
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Old
02-07-2011, 11:53 PM
  #192
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
If Gilbert Perreault is sitting there to be taken at #110 then trading up is a good thing, for example.
There are at least 4 other undrafted centers I would have take instead of Perreault. Not sure why he's so highy rated.

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:00 AM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
There are at least 4 other undrafted centers I would have take instead of Perreault. Not sure why he's so highy rated.
Perreault was awesome , I don't know what's not to like about this player , he didn't win but he performed in the playoff and was so talented.I'm not sure where you see 4 other better center than Perreault but we definately don't have the same definition of better that's for sure.Agree to disagree.

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02-08-2011, 12:31 AM
  #194
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Winnipeg Falcons selects, Brendan Shanahan.

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:32 AM
  #195
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Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
Perreault was awesome , I don't know what's not to like about this player , he didn't win but he performed in the playoff and was so talented.I'm not sure where you see 4 other better center than Perreault but we definately don't have the same definition of better that's for sure.Agree to disagree.
He was a good, but not great, offensive producer, and he didn't bring a whole lot else to the table.

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:45 AM
  #196
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
There are at least 4 other undrafted centers I would have take instead of Perreault. Not sure why he's so highy rated.
There are certainly cases for a few of them.

However - the point about Perreault being limited by the smaller ice surface is legitimate. If I remember correctly, overpass demonstrated that he had the same PPG at home as on the road, when other stars of his ilk scored x% more at home. There's no other explanation other than the arena.

Part of me wants to say, "too bad, great players adjust", but the adjuster in me wants to take a closer look at this. Wouldn't a fair look at Perreault's offensive abilities just be a matter of multiplying the PPG in half his games by whatever x% is? With that known, we could then present a list of "what-if" points finishes and judge him accordingly.

Let me see if I can find that post...

(3 minutes later)

found it:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p...t#post21094435

So Perreault scored 4% more at home. The average high scorer scored 21% more at home. Other top scorers came close to perreault's 4%, but Perreault clearly appears to be an outlier, plus the guy at 6% was playing in another undersized rink.

So Perreault, based on his road scoring, scored at just 86% the rate that he was expected to at home. The reciprocal is 1.163. This is what his home scoring should be "multiplied" by to be adjusted. His road scoring is fine as-is and constitutes, assumedly, half of his games. Therefore, what we would need to do to his "raw" point totals is just multiply by 1.082.

Here is what his best seasons then look like:

Year Pts Rk AdjP Rk
1975-76 113 3 122 2
1979-80 106 4 115 4
1976-77 95 5 103 4
1977-78 89 8 96 5
1974-75 96 9 104 7
1972-73 88 14 95 5
1971-72 74 15 80 12
1978-79 85 15 92 9
1970-71 72 16 78 8
1983-84 90 24 97 14
1984-85 83 31 90 24
1982-83 76 36 82 27

Ten times top-14 in points is a pretty sweet offensive record for post-expansion players. Not many guys have done that.

Disclaimer: To buy into this, you have to completely, 100% agree with Perreault's home inefficiency being the rink's fault.

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:53 AM
  #197
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Who has JFA's list? Please hurry, I need to go to bed right now, and need to get some trade stuff out of the way depending on who the next pick is.

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02-08-2011, 12:54 AM
  #198
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
There are certainly cases for a few of them.

However - the point about Perreault being limited by the smaller ice surface is legitimate. If I remember correctly, overpass demonstrated that he had the same PPG at home as on the road, when other stars of his ilk scored x% more at home. There's no other explanation other than the arena.

Part of me wants to say, "too bad, great players adjust", but the adjuster in me wants to take a closer look at this. Wouldn't a fair look at Perreault's offensive abilities just be a matter of multiplying the PPG in half his games by whatever x% is? With that known, we could then present a list of "what-if" points finishes and judge him accordingly.
Hmmm... I actually forgot about that Buffalo barn factor. Make that only 1 center that I'd definately take ahead of Perreault... and a coupe that I'd have to think about

Of course, if you do buy into that, you'd also have to buy that the rink would have an equal benefit to the defensive players who played on that same rink.

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:57 AM
  #199
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Hmmm... I actually forgot about that Buffalo barn factor. Make that only 1 center that I'd definately take ahead of Perreault... and a coupe that I'd have to think about

Of course, if you do buy into that, you'd also have to buy that the rink would have an equal benefit to the defensive players who played on that same rink.
We'll get to that.

But if the difference actually works out to 8% in the same way - there's no way two players in such different situations should only be a few percent apart

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Old
02-08-2011, 12:58 AM
  #200
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Can we stop throwing more random quotes into the threads every time we find one? I realize we want to get exposure for our players so... how about after every five quotes?

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