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Drew Stafford, the real deal ?

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Old
02-10-2011, 12:47 PM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joechip View Post
No, it is not. JB. Stafford is on pace for nearly 50 goals right now. Barring injury this season we would be talking an extension in the $5-6 million range, not $4. You know this. Money and term are based on comps and current performance. That salary (which I think should be front-loaded) takes into consideration his past. I don't think Stafford's changed. I don't believe people change. I believe circumstances change as do incentives through time and that causes people's behaviour to change. He changed his approach to the game and it's paid dividends. He's still the same person he was 3 years ago... the difference is his circumstance/experiences and he's altered his behaviour to fit. It's worked, he's going to get paid.

I understand your position and just disagree with it. You are over-valuing the past about a contract whose value is based on the future. Commodity contracts don't work that way, insurance contracts do.

Ta,
I understand how an agent would want to rely on a career season to project future value. But, no good GM would look at Stafford and pay him like a 50 goal scorer.

Stafford averages around 70 games played a season and the best case scenario is that he plays 64 games this year.

Stafford is not on a 50 goal pace. He's on pace to score 37 goals and 55 points this year IF he maintains his GPG & PPG pace and stays healthy. Neither of those are givens.

And as far as comparables go, are guys like Jeff Carter and Phil Kessel comparables or Hecht?

I'd lean towards Hecht.

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02-10-2011, 01:05 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
I understand how an agent would want to rely on a career season to project future value. But, no good GM would look at Stafford and pay him like a 50 goal scorer.

Stafford averages around 70 games played a season and the best case scenario is that he plays 64 games this year.

Stafford is not on a 50 goal pace. He's on pace to score 37 goals and 55 points this year IF he maintains his GPG & PPG pace and stays healthy. Neither of those are givens.

And as far as comparables go, are guys like Jeff Carter and Phil Kessel comparables or Hecht?

I'd lean towards Hecht.
And what is Hecht paid? $3.5 mil? Stafford is younger than Hecht was when he got that contract. Hecht hit 20 goals one time in his career. So, how is it out of line to say that Stafford is not going to get via comparables (which Zip listed in grave detail earlier in the thread) $3.5 to $4 per and -4 years? How is it even rational to think that that's not going to happen? 37 goal scorers are not going to command $4mil + in the market?

20 goals in 34 games is a 49 goal pace over 82 games. That's what I meant. That's eye-popping. And cannot be chalked up to just, "Well he's in a contract year. Feh." 10-15% increase in output, I would agree with you. But, what he's doing now is in a different plane of existence than in his previous years of play... on a less successful team playing similar numbers of minutes.

Something's not the same as it ever was. Except public perception based on previous disappointments.

Ta,

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02-10-2011, 01:05 PM
  #103
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http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/...Y3gcb97QFivLYF

http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=744

How does signing Lupul for 4 yrs & $17M after his career year in 2008-09 look now?

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02-10-2011, 01:42 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/...Y3gcb97QFivLYF

http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=744

How does signing Lupul for 4 yrs & $17M after his career year in 2008-09 look now?
Or Cheechoo for that matter. Neither of those guys fell off because of laziness. FOUL! JB. And you know that too. Both of those guys got wracked with nasty injuries. One of them is out of the league b/c he can't skate, not because he doesn't want to.

A better example is Afinogenov. An even better one is everyone's whipping boy 'round these parts... Pominville. Or how about Eric Staal? He'll never hit 50 goals again. Future projecting players is no easy matter.

That said, the comps are out there and Stafford's playing within range of them therefore that's going to be his price.

If you want to low ball him and offer no term, then you can guarantee he's gone come UFA status if he doesn't flame out. What do you think this 2 year deal was? That was the 'show me what you've got' contract. He has shown it, now you still want more proof?

Ta,

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02-10-2011, 01:46 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/...Y3gcb97QFivLYF

http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=744

How does signing Lupul for 4 yrs & $17M after his career year in 2008-09 look now?
Not that great. How does that relate to Stafford?

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02-10-2011, 02:25 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
Not that great. How does that relate to Stafford?
Lupul's career numbers leading up to getting that nice extension look a lot like Stafford's.

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02-10-2011, 02:33 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joechip View Post
If you want to low ball him and offer no term, then you can guarantee he's gone come UFA status if he doesn't flame out. What do you think this 2 year deal was? That was the 'show me what you've got' contract. He has shown it, now you still want more proof?

Ta,
The two year deal proved this:

[Assuming that he stays healthy the rest of the year and remains on current pace for 64gp 37g 55pts]

He's a 68gp 26g 45pt player

Kind of like the year Niklas Hagman had last year.

I wouldn't want to give Hagman 4 yrs $17M.

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02-10-2011, 02:51 PM
  #108
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give Stafford 4 yrs/ 15.0 / 3.75 per

3.0/3.0/4.0/4.0

see if he bites...

i think he'll be looking for 4.0-4.5 per. if thats the case, give him:
2 yrs/8.2/4.1 per

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02-10-2011, 02:52 PM
  #109
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I think we can all agree as Sabres fans we would love to have Stafford be from now on a 60+ pt. producer. The split is simply IF he will be. Some do, some don't. I have doubts he will, but i would love it if he is!
And if he is .... pay him 3+/per for the next 4-5 years. I can't help think of Hecht, Pominville, and Connolly as decisions that have blown up in the face. But i think of Roy and Miller where that it has paid off. Decisions, decisions ...

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02-10-2011, 02:58 PM
  #110
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Comparables. That's what sets the market.

Quote:
1) Wojtek Wolski [25]: 20 G, 32 A, 52 pts-- Signed 2yr/$7.6m ($3.8 cap hit) at 24 yrs old**

2) Milan Michalek [26]: 24 G, 27 A, 51 pts--Signed 6yr/$26m ($4.33 cap hit) at 23 yrs old

3) Drew Stafford [25]: 24 G, 25 A, 49 pts-- Making $2.3m this season, 25 yrs old

4) David Backes [26]: 22 G, 26 A, 48 pts-- Signed 5yr/$22.5m ($4.5 cap hit) at 26 yrs old

5) R.J. Umberger [28]: 22 G, 25 A, 47 pts-- Signed 4yr/$15m ($3.75 cap hit) at 26 yrs old

6) Andrei Kostitsyn [26]: 22 G, 25 A, 47 pts-- Signed 3yr/$9.75m ($3.25 cap hit) at 23 yrs old**

7) Tuomo Ruutu [27]: 20 G, 27 A, 47 pts-- Signed 3yr/$11.4m ($3.8 cap hit) at 26 yrs old

8) Joffrey Lupul [27]: 23 G, 23 A, 46 pts-- Signed 4yr/$17m ($4.25 cap hit) at 25 yrs old
The average cap hit of the seven other players on that list is around $3.95. That number has to be adjusted somewhat because it doesn't take into account how many of those years are RFA years and how many are UFA years, but the point remains that this is Stafford's market, and all the lamenting about the past isn't going to change this.

By the way, assuming Stafford received something like $3.8m per season and the cap rises to around $61m, Stafford's cap hit would be approximately 6.2% of the team's cap. Six ****ing percent. Some people want to move a guy with 30+ goal potential--and it may not be potential after this year--because they don't want to pay him 6/100 of the team's cap.

Even assuming we gave Stafford $3.8 per, the Sabres would still have $18+ mil in cap space. More than enough to sign a top-pairing PPQB, a top-end top-6 player, and give the RFA's their raises. Then, after next season, players like Hecht, Goose, and Morrisonn will all come off the cap or receive salary adjustments (read: pay decreases).

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02-10-2011, 02:59 PM
  #111
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The length of the term is more important than the price of the term for Stafford. I don't mind overpaying him for a 2-3 year contract...he's easily worth the risk, but I wouldn't sign him to a 5 year contract...he's not worth that risk.

What if he continues to play this way? It'll be a much greater loss than any amount of money we are talking here if we let him walk. Everybody has complained we need a top 6 forward with size and scoring...now we have one and people want to get rid of him over a couple million dollars?

This isn't luck. Stafford isn't Cheechoo playing with the best playmaker in the league. His talent is real. He can take a game over; we've seen it before. He's always had talent. The only thing that he's lacked is work ethic.

Contract year or not- I think he's worth the risk.

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02-10-2011, 03:02 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
Lupul's career numbers leading up to getting that nice extension look a lot like Stafford's.
Lupul hasn't been productive because he missed almost a year due to injuries and infections. Are you predicting the same for Stafford?
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angele...ory?id=5892715

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02-10-2011, 03:06 PM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
Lupul's career numbers leading up to getting that nice extension look a lot like Stafford's.
Anybody can pick and choose players to make their argument. The fact is, some players regress and others don't. There's really no point in throwing out random names as there are many names for both sides of the argument.

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02-10-2011, 03:07 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
give Stafford 4 yrs/ 15.0 / 3.75 per

3.0/3.0/4.0/4.0

see if he bites...

i think he'll be looking for 4.0-4.5 per. if thats the case, give him:
2 yrs/8.2/4.1 per
I'd avoid the two-year deal. IIRC, he is RFA for two more seasons after this one. Such a deal would take him right up to UFA. Regier (and most GM's, for that matter) loathes giving players deals that end coincident with their RFA status. They usually end one year before, or one year (or more) after RFA status expires. I'd give him a one-year deal, but I don't think he's going to take another "prove it" contract. I'd also give him a three-year deal (3/$11.4 sounds good--which is precisely Tuomo Ruutu's contract), and I'd probably even go to a fourth year if I had to, if for no other reason than Roy's, Pominville's, and Vanek's next contracts, if any, will all be resolved by then. But I definitely wouldn't do a two-year deal.

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02-10-2011, 03:20 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
give Stafford 4 yrs/ 15.0 / 3.75 per

3.0/3.0/4.0/4.0

see if he bites...

i think he'll be looking for 4.0-4.5 per. if thats the case, give him:
2 yrs/8.2/4.1 per
I give Drew 4 - 4.5 if shows up like this ....


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02-10-2011, 03:30 PM
  #116
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You would give Stafford 4+mil. if he grabs an opponent after a bad hit on his teammate? WOW

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02-10-2011, 04:09 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by 71Zamboni View Post
You would give Stafford 4+mil. if he grabs an opponent after a bad hit on his teammate? WOW
Can you be any more negative? Or do you just loathe Drew Stafford?

4th in the league in goals/game. In. The. League.

Has shown a willingness to stick up for teammates even if outmatched (see "Neil, Chris").

Big, fast, talented.

Sign him now.

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02-10-2011, 04:48 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htsportplaya View Post
Can you be any more negative? Or do you just loathe Drew Stafford?

4th in the league in goals/game. In. The. League.

Has shown a willingness to stick up for teammates even if outmatched (see "Neil, Chris").

Big, fast, talented.

Sign him now.
someone that 'gets it'

Thanks

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02-10-2011, 06:16 PM
  #119
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Negative about Stafford? Asking legit questions about where he is compared to where he was, and discussing where he will be is negative? Look around, i am not the only one wondering these things. Let me state it again, since you fail to read all the posts before spewing. I HOPE he will be a 60+ pt. producer for the BUFFALO SABRES. If he can be, then cool, pay him big, sign him long. I am not sold on him absolutely being that good for the next 4-5 yrs. I HOPE he will be.

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02-10-2011, 06:28 PM
  #120
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Count me among the unconvinced. I'd happily be wrong about him having turned the corner. Right now, I'm still not sure he's there yet. *shrug* Perhaps being too often bitten by the deals they've handed out and watching plenty of players fall back to earth has made me wary, but I wouldn't mind being wrong about him.

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02-10-2011, 06:31 PM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 71Zamboni View Post
Negative about Stafford? Asking legit questions about where he is compared to where he was, and discussing where he will be is negative? Look around, i am not the only one wondering these things. Let me state it again, since you fail to read all the posts before spewing. I HOPE he will be a 60+ pt. producer for the BUFFALO SABRES. If he can be, then cool, pay him big, sign him long. I am not sold on him absolutely being that good for the next 4-5 yrs. I HOPE he will be.
What you don't understand is that if he does become a 60+ point player, your 1-2 year contract bought you nothing except a bigger bill at the end of it. At that point you better HOPE his agent is a moron.

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02-10-2011, 06:32 PM
  #122
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I'm not convinced he's turned the corner for good either. However, with the way he's been playing this year I think the risk is worth the reward with regards to re-signing him. At least we know for sure what his potential is now. Hopefully Darcy will be proactive and sign him to a good contract before the season is over.

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02-10-2011, 06:56 PM
  #123
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Lets put it this way.

Tim Connolly is worthless to the Buffalo Sabres this year, but at the deadline, he'll probably fetch us something (2nd/3rd rounder, whatever).

Stafford is similar in that his talent will always be there, and even if we sign him to a good-sized deal right now & he disappears, he'll still be trade-able.

Unless we're getting a similar impact player, you don't trade him right now. If you're going to trade him for picks/prospects/whatever, you resign him and at least give him a chance to prove he's figured it out.

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02-10-2011, 07:03 PM
  #124
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So the sabres should sign stafford to 4+ mil. without a second thought, just like they signed Hecht, pominville and Connolly. And doesn't Darcy look dumb now. If Stafford walks away from a 2 yr deal then so be it. I would think he would be thankful for the compliment of the Sabres wanting him for another 2 yrs. And if he is offended, bu-bye. If he has 2 60+ pt seasons, then yes you sign him to a 4-5 yr 5+ mil/per deal. If he returns to the Stafford of 4 prior seasons, then won't that be a "thank god" moment. Sorry it's just how I see it. I need to see more than 40 games in a season before I throw "elite" money at him. We just have a different POV.

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02-11-2011, 07:24 AM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Comparables. That's what sets the market.



The average cap hit of the seven other players on that list is around $3.95. That number has to be adjusted somewhat because it doesn't take into account how many of those years are RFA years and how many are UFA years, but the point remains that this is Stafford's market, and all the lamenting about the past isn't going to change this.

By the way, assuming Stafford received something like $3.8m per season and the cap rises to around $61m, Stafford's cap hit would be approximately 6.2% of the team's cap. Six ****ing percent. Some people want to move a guy with 30+ goal potential--and it may not be potential after this year--because they don't want to pay him 6/100 of the team's cap.

Even assuming we gave Stafford $3.8 per, the Sabres would still have $18+ mil in cap space. More than enough to sign a top-pairing PPQB, a top-end top-6 player, and give the RFA's their raises. Then, after next season, players like Hecht, Goose, and Morrisonn will all come off the cap or receive salary adjustments (read: pay decreases).
I could live with a 2 year deal like Wolski received.

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