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ATD Chat Thread XV

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Old
02-02-2017, 04:38 PM
  #1
jarek
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ATD Chat Thread XV

And go!

The last bit of the previous thread was about potential trade scenarios involving the Leafs and Jets for Trouba.

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Old
02-02-2017, 08:46 PM
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Sounds like a bit too much Trouba.

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Old
02-02-2017, 09:04 PM
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Quote:
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Sounds like a bit too much Trouba.
I was gonna say that but I bit my tongue. Thanks for that.

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Old
02-02-2017, 09:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Engine View Post
Sounds like a bit too much Trouba.
His parents are Trouba makers.

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Old
02-02-2017, 11:09 PM
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Old
02-03-2017, 02:27 AM
  #6
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Best of all, Trouba means Moron in Czech.

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Old
02-03-2017, 02:53 AM
  #7
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Gonna be nice to draft top 2 again.

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Old
02-04-2017, 09:57 PM
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Wow, what the hell was that Bruins - Leafs game?

It was a gutsy win but the better team definitely lost.


Last edited by jarek: 02-04-2017 at 10:17 PM.
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Old
02-04-2017, 10:37 PM
  #9
seventieslord
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Quote:
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Wow, what the hell was that Bruins - Leafs game?

It was a gutsy win but the better team definitely lost.
That was fugly. Leafs i their heels the last 30 minutes. Scared ****less of losing and powerless to stop it from happening.

Yet still they scored their way out of this one.

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Old
02-04-2017, 10:38 PM
  #10
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
That was fugly. Leafs i their heels the last 30 minutes. Scared ****less of losing and powerless to stop it from happening.

Yet still they scored their way out of this one.
Hopefully not too many more of those on the horizon. They need to win in confident fashion. I'd say the season up to this point has been a resounding success but they need to stay competitive on a consistent basis.

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Old
02-04-2017, 10:39 PM
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Whats the proposal for trouba kappenan and a 2nd ?

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Old
02-04-2017, 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Whats the proposal for trouba kappenan and a 2nd ?
I sure hope so.

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Old
02-04-2017, 11:02 PM
  #13
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Whats the proposal for trouba kappenan and a 2nd ?

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Old
02-05-2017, 09:58 AM
  #14
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Leafs are rebuilding its scty yr 3 of the rebuild im under no dosallusion. About the playoffs i hooe they fail and we get another stud dman

Unless its bozak komarov polak or martin movng im not interested in making a trade.

I would never move nylander

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Old
02-05-2017, 08:23 PM
  #15
ResilientBeast
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So I'm goofing around with consolidated stats looking at just goals right now. Would post this in the draft thread but the undrafted rules exists eventually if people like what it represents and like the methodology I'll make a thread out of it. I'm attempting to transpose the PCHA players to the NHA using a variety of measures such as GPG differences and the effect of offensive contributions by each position. Even though Dunderdale and Taylor are tied, after crunching the numbers on how much offence was derived from the rover position in the PCHA, Taylor's contribution is slightly more impressive. Then compared to offensive contribution of centers in the NHA since Taylor would play the same position as Dunderdale in a consolidated NHA.

1913-14 Consolidated NHPCHA
  1. Tommy Smith - 39
  2. Gordon Roberts - 31
  3. Cyclone Taylor - 30.19
  4. Harry Hyland - 30
  5. Tommy Dunderdale - 28.21
  6. Jack McDonald - 27
  7. Eddie Oatman - 24.12
  8. Joe Malone - 24
  9. Scotty Davidson - 23
  10. Jack Darragh - 23

A quick fudge for points
  1. Tommy Smith - 45
  2. Gordon Roberts - 44
  3. Cyclone Taylor - 43.77
  4. Harry Hyland - 42
  5. Scotty Davidson - 36
  6. Jack Walker - 36
  7. Jack McDonald - 35
  8. Dubbie Kerr - 31.89
  9. Tommy Dunderdale - 31.83
  10. Eddie Oatman - 28.65


Last edited by ResilientBeast: 02-05-2017 at 08:57 PM.
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Old
02-05-2017, 10:35 PM
  #16
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Not very knowledgable about Football, but is Tom Brady now undisputably the greatest quarterback of all-time? Who was the competition, Joe Montana?

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Old
02-05-2017, 11:56 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Leafs are rebuilding its scty yr 3 of the rebuild...
It's year 50 of the rebuild. They're gonna win the SC in 2067.

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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Not very knowledgable about Football, but is Tom Brady now undisputably the greatest quarterback of all-time? Who was the competition, Joe Montana?
Agreed. The sad thing for the Falcons and their fans is that they threw away a field goal. The game never should have gone to OT.

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Old
02-06-2017, 12:16 AM
  #18
Dreakmur
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResilientBeast View Post
So I'm goofing around with consolidated stats looking at just goals right now. Would post this in the draft thread but the undrafted rules exists eventually if people like what it represents and like the methodology I'll make a thread out of it. I'm attempting to transpose the PCHA players to the NHA using a variety of measures such as GPG differences and the effect of offensive contributions by each position. Even though Dunderdale and Taylor are tied, after crunching the numbers on how much offence was derived from the rover position in the PCHA, Taylor's contribution is slightly more impressive. Then compared to offensive contribution of centers in the NHA since Taylor would play the same position as Dunderdale in a consolidated NHA.

1913-14 Consolidated NHPCHA
  1. Tommy Smith - 39
  2. Gordon Roberts - 31
  3. Cyclone Taylor - 30.19
  4. Harry Hyland - 30
  5. Tommy Dunderdale - 28.21
  6. Jack McDonald - 27
  7. Eddie Oatman - 24.12
  8. Joe Malone - 24
  9. Scotty Davidson - 23
  10. Jack Darragh - 23

A quick fudge for points
  1. Tommy Smith - 45
  2. Gordon Roberts - 44
  3. Cyclone Taylor - 43.77
  4. Harry Hyland - 42
  5. Scotty Davidson - 36
  6. Jack Walker - 36
  7. Jack McDonald - 35
  8. Dubbie Kerr - 31.89
  9. Tommy Dunderdale - 31.83
  10. Eddie Oatman - 28.65
First, if you are going to equalize for goals per game, you also have to for equalize games per season.

Second, the fudge seems completely arbitrary.

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Old
02-06-2017, 08:08 AM
  #19
ResilientBeast
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
First, if you are going to equalize for goals per game, you also have to for equalize games per season.

Second, the fudge seems completely arbitrary.
Did that already, my thought was just equalizing games and gpg neglects the differences between 7 and 6 man hockey.

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Old
02-06-2017, 09:22 AM
  #20
Dreakmur
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResilientBeast View Post
Did that already, my thought was just equalizing games and gpg neglects the differences between 7 and 6 man hockey.
Before you do that, I think you should first have a good idea what the difference is. Does having more guys on the ice actually reduce the scoring numbers? If so, does it have a greater impact on certain positions? If so, how much exactly?

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Old
02-06-2017, 09:36 AM
  #21
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Before you do that, I think you should first have a good idea what the difference is. Does having more guys on the ice actually reduce the scoring numbers? If so, does it have a greater impact on certain positions? If so, how much exactly?
I have the data, so far for all of the PCHA and then 1913-14 NHA

Here's the distribution of goals by position

PCHA
R - 0.228
C - 0.244
W - 0.180
W - 0.180
D - 0.084
D - 0.084

NHA
C - 0.338
W - 0.233
W - 0.233
D - 0.098
D - 0.098

Just straight comparing, the rover has a 0.094 affect on the scoring numbers of centers which is the highest. (These numbers are the fraction of total goals scored by that position)

Now the total goals scored each game in the PCHA was 10.043 this year while the NHA's was 8.62. I don't have my spreadsheet fully populated but after 1917-18 season in which MacKay moved to rover and Taylor moved to center it appears the Patricks had changed the role of rover to be more of a defensive one.

In 1909-10 and 1910-11 in the NHA, the rover was responsible for 0.243 and 0.233 goals league wide. These seasons the total goals per game averages was 12.93 and 10.42. Which then dropped to 9.28 when the rover was eliminated. So having more players on the ice would seem to increase scoring, now comparing goalies the PCHA ones weren't as great as their NHA counterparts, so it could be explained that way.

Obviously the drops in GPG can be explained other was I'm sure but I think this is an interesting exercise.


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Old
02-06-2017, 12:23 PM
  #22
seventieslord
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I'm going to do a consolidated leaderboard for last year's NHL and OHL.

The NHL was 2.61 GPG, the OHL was 3.40. The NHL season is 82 games long, the OHL 68.

So to compare points from OHL to NHL, just multiply by 0.77 X 1.21 = 0.93 to account for scheduling differences and the higher scoring level.

Consolidated leaderboard:

Kevin Leblanc: 118
Christian Dvorak: 113
Mitch Marner: 108
Patrick Kane: 106
Dylan Strome: 103
Matthew Tkachuk: 100
Andrew Mangiapane: 99
Alex DeBrincat: 94
Travis Konecny: 94
Mike Amadio: 91
Jamie Benn: 89
Sidney Crosby: 85
Christian Fischer: 84
Spencer Watson: 83
Joe Thornton: 82
Erik Karlsson: 82
Hunter Garlent: 81
Johnny Gaudreau: 78
Joe Pavelski: 78
Blake Wheeler: 78
Eric Cornel: 77


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-07-2017 at 07:10 PM.
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Old
02-06-2017, 12:37 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'm going to do a consolidated leaderboard for last year's NHL and OHL.

The NHL was 2.61 GPG, the OHL was 3.40. The NHL season is 82 games long, the OHL 68.

So to compare points from OHL to NHL, just multiply by 0.77 X 1.21 = 0.93 to account for scheduling differences and the higher scoring lead.

Consolidated leaderboard:

Kevin Leblanc: 118
Christian Dvorak: 113
Mitch Marner: 108
Patrick Kane: 106
Dylan Strome: 103
Matthew Tkachuk: 100
Andrew Mangiapane: 99
Alex DeBrincat: 94
Travis Konecny: 94
Mike Amadio: 91
Jamie Benn: 89
Sidney Crosby: 85
Christian Fischer: 84
Spencer Watson: 83
Joe Thornton: 82
Erik Karlsson: 82
Hunter Garlent: 81
Johnny Gaudreau: 78
Joe Pavelski: 78
Blake Wheeler: 78
Eric Cornel: 77
I think you realize how ridiculous it is to compare the OHL to the PCHA right? The PCHA was faaaaaaaaaar closer to the NHA than the OHL is to the NHL.

You have your system of trying to apply VsX to soviet scoring and transpose them to the NHL and then fudge it based on your beliefs about the players abilities. So why chirp attempting to do so in a more objective way for the split league era?

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Old
02-06-2017, 01:10 PM
  #24
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ResilientBeast View Post
I think you realize how ridiculous it is to compare the OHL to the PCHA right? The PCHA was faaaaaaaaaar closer to the NHA than the OHL is to the NHL.

You have your system of trying to apply VsX to soviet scoring and transpose them to the NHL and then fudge it based on your beliefs about the players abilities. So why chirp attempting to do so in a more objective way for the split league era?
(not my beliefs, the beliefs established by the projects here and in the HOH section).

Yes, obviously the PCHA was closer to the NHA/NHL. I prefer you don't see this as a "chirp" but as a reductio ad absurdum argument for why you should not simply assume they are equal at all times and the pitfalls that can arise when you do.

You call what you're doing objective; I disagree. By deciding to treat the PCHA, NHA, NHL, and W(C)HL as always equal, you are already making a subjective judgment, and by treating that as a standard for all seasons, you're going to make yourself a slave to that methodology, even when it goes against your better judgment.

Subjective season by season judgments will do a better job. There aren't so many seasons that one couldn't calibrate it fairly well within an hour. Subjectivity isn't a dirty word; the numbers are what they are; they're the objective part; what you do from there is subjective no matter what, so just be subjective and also smart.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-06-2017 at 01:22 PM.
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Old
02-06-2017, 01:15 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
(not my beliefs, the beliefs established by the projects here and in the HOH section).

Yes, obviously the PCHA was closer to the NHA/NHL. I prefer you don't see this as a "chirp" but as a reductio ad absurdum argument for why you should not simply assume they are equal at all times and the pitfalls that can arise when you do.

You call what you're doing objective; I disagree. By deciding to treat the PCHA, NHA, NHL, and W(C)HL as always equal, you are already making a subjective judgment, and by treating that as a standard for all seasons, you're going to make yourself a slave to that methodology.

Subjective season by season judgments will do a better job. There aren't so many seasons that one couldn't calibrate it fairly well within an hour. Subjectivity isn't a dirty word; the numbers are what they are; they're the objective part; what you do from there is subjective no matter what, so just be subjective and also smart.
Fair sorry for the overreaction, you yourself have called them "well informed fudges" but attempting to trivialize the idea by using the OHL was terrible. It's far more likely Taylor is top 3 in scoring that season than Marner is in your example.

I'm at first trying to build the system out and then I can worry about trying to move the needle in the right direction. My first step is trying to work out the role of the rover in the offence (which changed over the course of the PCHAs existence)

I just to finish the positional percentage data for the NHA/NHL and then I'll post the tables in the HOH to get some discussion going.

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