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Pace needed to make the playoffs

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Old
02-13-2011, 03:10 PM
  #1
WhereIsIt
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Pace needed to make the playoffs

We have 24 games left. In our last 24 games we've gotten 33 points. If we play at the same level for the next 24 games we will end up with around 97 points. Post-lockout in the West, 97 point has always been enough to get into the playoffs, ranging from 5th-8th. But can we maintain this pace? Is this pace enough to get in this year?

We need something like 16-7-1 or 15-8-3. I think we have a pretty good shot, especially given how close we've been able to keep the games. If we play the way we have been lately it's not likely that we lost 8 games in regulation the rest of the way.

I'm going to take it a step further and do the same thing for the teams we are chasing:

Wild: 27 games left.
Last 27 games: 35 points.
Pace: 100 points

Ducks: 26 games left.
Last 26 games: 35 points.
Pace: 101 points

Sharks: 26 games left.
Last 26 games: 31 points.
Pace: 97 points

Coyotes: 25 games left.
Last 25 games: 30 points.
Pace: 97 points.

Preds: 26 games left.
Last 26 games: 28 points.
Pace: 95 points.

Kings: 27 games left.
Last 27 games: 26 points.
Pace: 89 points.

Hawks: 26 games left.
Last 26 games: 27 points.
Pace: 89 points.

Projected Standings:
4. Ducks (101)
5. Wild (100)
6. Sharks (97)
7. Coyotes (97)
8. Flames (97) not sure about the tiebreak situation here
9. Preds (95)
10. Kings (89)
11. Hawks (89)

So while the current standings suggest that the Ducks and Wild are our main competition for the playoffs (as they are in 7th and 8th), I would suggest that we be cheering very hard against whoever is playing the Sharks, Coyotes, and the Preds.

Just something to keep in mind as we roll along here!

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Old
02-13-2011, 03:57 PM
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FLAMES666
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Tie break starts by regulation wins so you can basically count Calgary not to win any tie breaks considering they have 7 or so shootout wins

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02-13-2011, 04:01 PM
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Yeah that's what I thought, so I put them in 8th.

It'll be interesting to see how close the end result is to this projection, if anything.

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02-13-2011, 04:54 PM
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Why do you assume that all teams will play in their last, say, 25 games, like they have in their previous 25 games (vs. how they have played all season)?

Other than the obvious reason as using the smaller smaple size favours the Flames who have had their hottest portion of the season recently.

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02-13-2011, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slappipappi View Post
Why do you assume that all teams will play in their last, say, 25 games, like they have in their previous 25 games (vs. how they have played all season)?

Other than the obvious reason as using the smaller smaple size favours the Flames who have had their hottest portion of the season recently.
Have you taken any future telling courses?

The best analysis of future events is from monitoring past events. The only thing that should be changed (to avoid a small sample size) is to increase the games to 30 previous games, and take the points per game average. You would do this to avoid using t-distribution and settle for a normal distribution.

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02-13-2011, 06:04 PM
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Kipper needs to play better than he has lately. Players need to stop getting injured. Iginla needs to put up the points. Merely playing like he has isn't good enough.

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Old
02-13-2011, 08:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lordstanleychaser View Post
Have you taken any future telling courses?

The best analysis of future events is from monitoring past events. The only thing that should be changed (to avoid a small sample size) is to increase the games to 30 previous games, and take the points per game average. You would do this to avoid using t-distribution and settle for a normal distribution.
You missed my point. You should look at the entire season, not cherry pick Calgary's hottest period.

Avoid the small sample size by increasing it to 55 games.

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02-13-2011, 09:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slappipappi View Post
You missed my point. You should look at the entire season, not cherry pick Calgary's hottest period.

Avoid the small sample size by increasing it to 55 games.
A sample size of 30 is sufficient to fall under the central limit theorem. I clearly didn't miss your point at all. I understand that you think that he was picking calgary's hottest streak, but SINCE D. Sutter stepped down the team has been playing completely different. If anything look at pre and post Dutter records. It is very clear you don't know much about statistics, nor do you follow the team closely enough to make an apt judgment.

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02-13-2011, 09:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lordstanleychaser View Post
Have you taken any future telling courses?

The best analysis of future events is from monitoring past events. The only thing that should be changed (to avoid a small sample size) is to increase the games to 30 previous games, and take the points per game average. You would do this to avoid using t-distribution and settle for a normal distribution.
There's a limit to how accurate taking a sample of previous events can be when trying to use it to predict the future. Especially when you apply it to a dynamic situation like a hockey season.
You would be right in saying that Calgary reaches about 97 points if they keep up their pace. At the same time, you need to assume a whole spectrum of possibilities from injuries, to trades to teams simply imploding (or getting hot as well). Too many variables to account for to give that prediction any accuracy. OP gives some interesting things to chat about but only that much.

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02-13-2011, 10:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Xelstyle View Post
There's a limit to how accurate taking a sample of previous events can be when trying to use it to predict the future. Especially when you apply it to a dynamic situation like a hockey season.
You would be right in saying that Calgary reaches about 97 points if they keep up their pace. At the same time, you need to assume a whole spectrum of possibilities from injuries, to trades to teams simply imploding (or getting hot as well). Too many variables to account for to give that prediction any accuracy. OP gives some interesting things to chat about but only that much.
Uhm. Exactly. People can use statistics to analyze and get a basic idea, but it will rarely ever be able to predict a future event. Hence why you don't see people winning big from casinos/lotterys/hockey etc. A statistic is merely a guideline, nothing more. I am trying to show that with a sample size of the last 30 games the flames can show to be relatively close to an average pace, disregarding huge injuries (the standard of deviation won't account for that). There is an entire possibility that the flames can lose the rest of the season, and an equally likely probability that they can win the entire season as each games results are independent trials..

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02-13-2011, 10:27 PM
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I wasn't trying to favor the Flames at all. I used the amount of games remaining because a) its easier, and b) recent games are more telling of the play of the team down the stretch. Calgary and Minnesota (and perhaps Chicago?) are playing like completely different teams lately, and if I were to use the pace from the start of the year it wouldn't recognize that.

And all that stats stuff the lordstanleychaser said sounds so familiar from that stats class I wasn't playing attention in, haha. I do see your point about using 30 games for everyone and dividing it though, that does make more sense.

Not trying to predict the future either, just trying to offer the best possible guess I can that's not based on pure speculation or hunches.

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02-13-2011, 10:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kotalik Fanboy View Post

And all that stats stuff the lordstanleychaser said sounds so familiar from that stats class I wasn't playing attention in, haha. I do see your point about using 30 games for everyone and dividing it though, that does make more sense.


At least me taking stats for the last few years has payed off somewhat

The sole reason for 30, is that it creates a large enough pool of data to compile a decent distribution with that being said, the potential for a high standard of deviation still may occur as it is only a population sampling and not a true distribution.

If we look at the reasoning behind the sample though, we see that the Flames are trending towards a brighter outcome than the beginning of the season, thus if we used the ppg based on day 1, we have a far smaller chance of making the playoffs, as opposed to how they are playing NOW.

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02-14-2011, 04:21 AM
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Me Like Hockey! Hockey Good! Me Like Flames Win Cup!

Stats. Pfffft...

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02-14-2011, 04:29 AM
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CPRSRPUNKS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C For Choke View Post
Kipper needs to play better than he has lately. Players need to stop getting injured. Iginla needs to put up the points. Merely playing like he has isn't good enough.
The last sentence was a joke right? He's been working his ass off and now sits 11th in scoring. He is on pace to beat his totals from last season. What more do you want from a guy with no center and an injured guy not there to feed him passes?

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02-14-2011, 01:23 PM
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The last sentence was a joke right?
It was the players need to stop getting injured thing that made me laugh.

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Old
02-14-2011, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by C For Choke View Post
Iginla needs to put up the points.

Iginla just needs to continue playing the way he's playing right now and not change a single thing about his game.

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