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Old
04-09-2017, 04:52 PM
  #1
Wood Stick
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Upcoming RFAs (Tatar, AA, XO)

Tomas Tatar is 26 years old, 25G 21A 46P this season. 45 points last season, 56 the year prior and 40 in his first year. Been a 20 goal guy pretty much every season in the NHL.

Xavier Ouellet is in his first NHL season and has been steady. Not much offensive kick at 13 points but took over as a regular beating out Marchenko and Sproul early on.

Andreas Athanansiou will be 23 years old in the summer. 2 NHL seasons. 9G 14P in 39 last year and 18G 31P in 64 games this season. Looks to be a 20 goal scorer right now.

Any idea on contracts that you'd do for these guys or what they will get? Starting the off-season a tad early here. Obviously won't be re-signed until after the expansion draft.

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Old
04-09-2017, 05:22 PM
  #2
Bondurant
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I don't know much about hockey economics and don't pay too much attention to them. If AA has an agent worth a grain of salt I think he'll be able to work a favorable deal. Especially considering what some other Wings, like Abdelkader, are making. Hope he's secured for the long haul.

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04-09-2017, 05:27 PM
  #3
Nightmare on Helm St
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Tatar: 5yr x 4.5AAV
XO: 2yr x 1.2 AAV
AA: 2yr x 2.6 AAV

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Old
04-09-2017, 05:55 PM
  #4
odin1981
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AA 2-2.5 per year 2-3 years. XO around 1.5-2.0 for 3 years. And the widest variance will be Tatar somewhere around 4-5 million per year say 4-6 years (we know Kenny) if he isn't traded before UFA hits.

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Old
04-09-2017, 06:03 PM
  #5
Wood Stick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odin1981 View Post
AA 2-2.5 per year 2-3 years. XO around 1.5-2.0 for 3 years. And the widest variance will be Tatar somewhere around 4-5 million per year say 4-6 years (we know Kenny) if he isn't traded before UFA hits.
I have no issues with 4.5M AAV for 5 years or so with Tats. He's a consistent 45-50 point guy and it will cover his entire prime. I think XO signs a short-term 1-2 year year deal though. AA makes sense on a 2 year deal too. Tats is the big one here though.

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Old
04-09-2017, 07:09 PM
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RedWingzz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightmare on Helm St View Post
Tatar: 5yr x 4.5AAV
XO: 2yr x 1.2 AAV
AA: 2yr x 2.6 AAV
Sounds about right. I think if we can get AA or XO for a 3rd year at or around that cap hit, we should do it. I'm fine with 5x5 for Tatar too.

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Old
04-09-2017, 07:15 PM
  #7
Shaman464
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No reason to send AA or XO love letters. Combined they shouldn't get more than about 3.2 million per year and try to sign them for at least 2 years. Both have shown flashes, but neither have been consistent or game changing. Holland needs to show that he can play hardball with players with lots of team control left.

As for Tatar, he should get what Nyquist is getting. Anything less would be an insult.

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Old
04-09-2017, 07:18 PM
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tsweeney
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I don't think AA gets over 1.5M. The Wings generally don't overpay on the bridge contract. Sheahan in 13-14 was arguably had better or equal stats to AA and he got 950k for 2 years. He was given much greater defensive responsibilities and scored close to AAs amount for that deal and got 2.075. There is no damn way that AA gets 2.6 AAV.

I could see 2/2.6M or 1.3m a year before the other way.

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Old
04-09-2017, 08:53 PM
  #9
Sentinel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaman464 View Post
neither have been consistent or game changing.
AA has not been consistent, but he pretty much DEFINES "game changing."

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Old
04-09-2017, 08:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsweeney View Post
I don't think AA gets over 1.5M. The Wings generally don't overpay on the bridge contract. Sheahan in 13-14 was arguably had better or equal stats to AA and he got 950k for 2 years. He was given much greater defensive responsibilities and scored close to AAs amount for that deal and got 2.075. There is no damn way that AA gets 2.6 AAV.

I could see 2/2.6M or 1.3m a year before the other way.
I'm with you on thinking the RFA numbers are a bit high.

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Old
04-09-2017, 08:58 PM
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Tatar should get Nyquist money/term.

AA will get low-balled by Kenny, probably 1.5m per for a couple of years.

XO will get a similar deal.

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Old
04-09-2017, 09:15 PM
  #12
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Tats will get over paid, will not protect xo any way in favor of old use less D men you guys know who. AA and Mantha are being run out of town by the Trash and Ass connection!!! No faith in the people running things any more.

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Old
04-09-2017, 09:28 PM
  #13
odin1981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wood Stick View Post
I have no issues with 4.5M AAV for 5 years or so with Tats. He's a consistent 45-50 point guy and it will cover his entire prime. I think XO signs a short-term 1-2 year year deal though. AA makes sense on a 2 year deal too. Tats is the big one here though.
Most D men I have seen 2nd contract normally get 3 year extensions to milk as much of the rfa as they can from what I remember. If XO develops into a stable top 4 over the 3 years at 2 per year it is a bargain for a top4 d-man.

I could see the organization push for a 3 year for AA also. He flirted with 40 points this year I can see the team wanting to milk a third year as well.

I just hope that tats is signed for less than 6 years but knowing kenny it wouldn't shock me if he got 7.

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Old
04-09-2017, 11:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightmare on Helm St View Post
Tatar: 5yr x 4.5AAV
XO: 2yr x 1.2 AAV
AA: 2yr x 2.6 AAV
Seems about right. I think Tats might get more and AA maybe a bit less.

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Old
04-10-2017, 02:48 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel View Post
AA has not been consistent, but he pretty much DEFINES "game changing."
No, McDavid, Crosby, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Federov, Matthews, etc are (or were) all game changing. A few slick goals are nice and all, but game changing he is not.

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Old
04-10-2017, 03:08 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaman464 View Post
No, McDavid, Crosby, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Fedorov, Matthews, etc are (or were) all game changing. A few slick goals are nice and all, but game changing he is not.
Agree, AA is exciting to watch, but he isn't going to take over games all by himself very often, if ever.

Hopefully the wings trade Tatar, 5 million is way too much to watch him play like crap all year, then turn it on, in the final 20 games, once we are completely out of playoff contention. His hot streak at seasons end, REEKS of upping his contract price! Nyquist can go too!

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Old
04-10-2017, 05:30 AM
  #17
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Tatar seems like a safe bet for 20-25 goals a year. So you could give him a long contract, but with a little less per year because of his limited ceiling. If he wants more than 5.5 (lets say)millions per, then let him go.

AA should get a new contract. No opinion on Oullet.

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Old
04-10-2017, 05:51 AM
  #18
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Locking up Tatar to Nyquist money would continue to clog up the forward ranks with good but not great players and offer you almost no flexibility to make changes.

I really think you have to move one of him or Nyquist for a defender, even if it's not an elite defender. If you don't do this, you're going to run out the identical roster next year and have no cap space.

Cap space finally frees up in 2018-2019, but it's not the good kind of cap space. It's space that is freed up by Mike Green's contract expiring and requiring the team to sign Larkin, Mantha, and Mrazek. Even if we assume no raise for Mrazek, you've got a huge hole without Green and Larkin and Mantha are locks to increase their payday.

What I'm saying is our boy Kenny needs to be careful with his contracts because things are pretty jammed up right now. I don't think we're going to get a lot of magical LTIR cap help, either. And even if you do, that makes off-season juggling very complicated. To the point you might see the desire to unload another dead contract ala Datsyuk.

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04-10-2017, 07:08 AM
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Aa could be a goal scoring machine. But Mantha is a better game changer or would be

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04-10-2017, 07:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bench View Post
Locking up Tatar to Nyquist money would continue to clog up the forward ranks with good but not great players and offer you almost no flexibility to make changes.

I really think you have to move one of him or Nyquist for a defender, even if it's not an elite defender. If you don't do this, you're going to run out the identical roster next year and have no cap space.

Cap space finally frees up in 2018-2019, but it's not the good kind of cap space. It's space that is freed up by Mike Green's contract expiring and requiring the team to sign Larkin, Mantha, and Mrazek. Even if we assume no raise for Mrazek, you've got a huge hole without Green and Larkin and Mantha are locks to increase their payday.

What I'm saying is our boy Kenny needs to be careful with his contracts because things are pretty jammed up right now. I don't think we're going to get a lot of magical LTIR cap help, either. And even if you do, that makes off-season juggling very complicated. To the point you might see the desire to unload another dead contract ala Datsyuk.
How low do you get on the quality ladder before dealing Nyquist/Tatar becomes too much of a losing proposition? I don't see a point in dealing either for a mid-pairing D, especially if that D is making a similar salary.

Our first option has to be loading the expansion draft with a bunch of ugly contracts and hoping Vegas takes one just because the smaller contracts are pretty worthless to them. If they take one of Helm/Gator/Dekeyser/Howard, we could make out pretty well.

I'm not against moving Nyquist/Tatar at all, just no real interest in seeing us dump them for an expensive, minimal upgrade. I'd rather have picks at that point. Holland will probably be trying to bring in new talent this summer, but I'd consider it a bigger success if he can ship out some excess baggage.

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Old
04-10-2017, 08:10 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightmare on Helm St View Post
Tatar: 5yr x 4.5AAV
XO: 2yr x 1.2 AAV
AA: 2yr x 2.6 AAV
This is pretty much what i'm thinking as well.

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Old
04-10-2017, 01:58 PM
  #22
Bench
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Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
I don't see a point in dealing either for a mid-pairing D, especially if that D is making a similar salary. [...]

I'd rather have picks at that point.
The point is you actually help the blueline?

And as for wanting picks instead, you're not thinking like Holland. If I was posting from the perspective of how I'd manage things, it there would be talk about completely tearing the team apart. Instead I'm looking at the salary structure of things and hoping they don't load up another forward with a $4-5 million dollar deal for the next 5 years.

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Old
04-10-2017, 02:04 PM
  #23
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Nyquist/Tatar (+ a small add?) for Tanev seems like a perfect move honestly. Seems doable based on the values in the Tanev thread on the Trade board.

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Old
04-10-2017, 02:30 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bench View Post
The point is you actually help the blueline?

And as for wanting picks instead, you're not thinking like Holland. If I was posting from the perspective of how I'd manage things, it there would be talk about completely tearing the team apart. Instead I'm looking at the salary structure of things and hoping they don't load up another forward with a $4-5 million dollar deal for the next 5 years.
Middle pairing guys can be had for very modest prices if you just play your cards right.

Personally, I think it would only make sense to trade Tatar or Nyquist for an up and coming promising D prospect. Someone with little or (more likely) no experience, but with top pairing level potential. I don't think Holland would take that type of risk though, and not sure how often those guys get moved. But it's the only situation I see that really makes sense.

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Old
04-10-2017, 02:30 PM
  #25
Winger98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bench View Post
The point is you actually help the blueline?

And as for wanting picks instead, you're not thinking like Holland. If I was posting from the perspective of how I'd manage things, it there would be talk about completely tearing the team apart. Instead I'm looking at the salary structure of things and hoping they don't load up another forward with a $4-5 million dollar deal for the next 5 years.
I didn't know I was supposed to be posting as Holland? I thought someone else already had that gimmick. If I'm thinking like Holland, it's sign Tatar, be unable to make any trade, sign a vet D in late July who is just looking for a paycheck for next season, and figure injuries will sort out the roster in camp. I know that sounds like a parody, but I'll be damned if that's not essentially what he's done for a few years now.

For me, I'm not sure I see a mid-pairing D as being that great of an upgrade over the kids we have. And I'd rather just play the kids, and keep Tatar/Nyquist while working to unload some other contracts. And if we can't move any of those other guys - just pick your bad contract you want to move, it's all the same, really - I'd probably be looking at just biting the bullet and buying Howard or even Ericsson out next summer.

And, for the record, despite what it seems others view them, I would see guys like Fowler and Trouba as top pair guys. I know it seems there is a Norris or Bust vein to blueline acquisitions, but those guys are at least a clear step above the sort of guys I'm thinking of when we're talking mid-pairing.

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