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ATD 2011 Draft Thread V

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Old
02-24-2011, 12:58 AM
  #876
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Originally Posted by Dwight View Post
I'm gonna do it! I'm gonna do it! You can't stop me!

You think I'm afraid? I may be young, but I've been preparing for this moment for years...years

I ain't afraid! I'm going through hell and back, and I'm DAMN proud to pick

Vsevolod Bobrov, W
Anddddd theres the guy I've been trying to trade up for.

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02-24-2011, 01:06 AM
  #877
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Absolutely laughable that you exclude Orr and Esposito in your comparison to make Cashman look better, when they are the primary 2 reasons he had as many points as he did!

What are you going to do next? Draft Rob Brown and exclude Mario Lemieux from the percentages?
I knew you were going to say that. But here's the thing:

Prentice was Bathgate's wingman throughout all of his best seasons.
Tonelli spent a lot of time (or was it all the time?) with Bossy and Trottier.
Cashman played with Espo and Orr, but had 4 60-point seasons, 4 of his best 7 seasons in the post-Orr and Espo era, at age 30-35.

I figure it all evens out.

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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I deleted it when 70s picked him. I figured he'd make a better bio anyway
Yeah, I will.... in like 2 months

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Good luck with that....
Haha! That's exactly what I thought.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Makes sense that he and Tkatcuk went right next to each other. Their scoring is very similar, but we know more about Tkachuk - both good and bad. I'd say Tkachuk is probably more physically intimidating, but less disciplined (only because we know he's an extreme at both ends and don't know that for sure about Doc).
These two are going to be selected really close to eachother going forward.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Of course you would take Tkachuk over them. All you can remember is Tkachuk being expected to lead his team in the playoffs and failing miserable.

What doesn't stand out in memory is that neither Kevin Stevens nor Rick Tocchet had a chance to fail, because neither one was expected to lead his team anywhere, because neither was good enough to be the key player on his team, like Keith was.

Edit: In the ATD, where Keith is a complimentary player and defenses can't focus on him? I'd definitely take him over the other two, especially Tocchet (at least Stevens was a very good scorer when he played with Mario).


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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I never thought that Green was that good offensively. I always viewed him as a stay-at-home, physical defenceman. Konstantinov do have an higher (albeit short) peak over Green, but they definitely are similar defenceman in term of style and value. Excellent selection at this point.
Konstantinov should probably be taken about 20-40 picks ahead of Green, hey?

Green does have a great offensive peak with the 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, but his finishes take a dive after that.

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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I've read many instances talking about the work of Tonelli defensively. His Selke record also seems to be agree with those statement (3, 5, 6, 8). I might have push the envelop with 'elite', but he was definitely a strong defensive player, better than both Prentice and Cashman.
Hey, who's to say in Prentice's long career that he wouldn't have had a selke record at least that good if the award only existed that whole time?

Tonelli is probably the best defensively of the trio, but on the other hand, I've never seen a guy get so close to the selke so often without killing penalties regularly.

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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I want, no I REQUEST, a detailled biography on Bodrov.
You won't like what he finds!

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Old
02-24-2011, 01:09 AM
  #878
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You won't like what he finds!
How so? Do I have a preconceive image of Bodrov that I wouldn't knoe about?

Going to work, cya!

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02-24-2011, 01:10 AM
  #879
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Konstantinov should probably be taken about 20-40 picks ahead of Green, hey?
Depends how you value peak.

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02-24-2011, 01:12 AM
  #880
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You're not 100% incorrect there. I read that he was a crunching hitter in one scouting report, and then a couple years later that he didn't clear the crease with as much authority as they wanted. Overall I think he's still a plus physically.

I'm actually a little confused about what to do with Neilson. He's good in the three areas you look for in a defenseman. Is he the puck mover of the pair? His offensive totals say he can be. Then I'd want a stay at home guy. Or is that Neilson? Meaning I should get a puckmover.

Or, with him being so balanced, do I just look for another balanced guy?
I also read one source that called him a bodychecker. The problem is that I found 7 or 8 sources that said otherwise. I think he's a guy who can handle power forwards - because he strong and mobile - but he's not a physical presence. I may be wrong, however, and I look forward to seeing what you can dig up.



Neilson doesn't need a specific type of partner. He can play with anybody. I do think that he is probably used best with an offensive guy. He's very steady as a stay-at-home guy, but he can also handle the puck well enough to help a break-out.

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OK, I may be wrong on this. I don't have any interest in smearing Green, so I'll leave it at that.... for now.
Don't say anything about him that you wouldn't say to his face

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02-24-2011, 01:14 AM
  #881
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Did Seve Bobrov ever drop. He's a top 10 Soviet according to many.

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02-24-2011, 01:14 AM
  #882
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I knew you were going to say that. But here's the thing:

Prentice was Bathgate's wingman throughout all of his best seasons.
Tonelli spent a lot of time (or was it all the time?) with Bossy and Trottier.
Cashman played with Espo and Orr, but had 4 60-point seasons, 4 of his best 7 seasons in the post-Orr and Espo era, at age 30-35.

I figure it all evens out.
Gillies played with Bossy and Trottier most of the time. Tonelli usually played on lower lines.

Hey, I'm the one who went after Prentice for having his stats inflated by Bahtgate.

But that's nothing like playing with Espo and Orr. That entire team was a bunch of outliers compared to the rest of the league, with the offense driven by Espo and Orr. How many of Cashman's points came from digging the puck out of the corners (which he was elite at) and just throwing it into the slot, knowing Espo would take care of things from there?

I get the point of removing outlier players from comparisons, but not when those players are the guys the player you are comparing played with!

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02-24-2011, 01:15 AM
  #883
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Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
Depends how you value peak.
They have similar peaks, don't they?

I've had Konstantinov before, but he was my #6 guy, so I didn't put much work into him.

Oh the good old days..... when I had Bobby Orr, Sprague Cleghorn, Guy Lapointe, the Gold Dust Twins, and Vlad Konstantinov as my blueline.... and still lose in the 1st round of the play-offs

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02-24-2011, 01:16 AM
  #884
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Did Seve Bobrov ever drop. He's a top 10 Soviet according to many.
Competition is the big question mark.

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02-24-2011, 01:16 AM
  #885
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Depends how you value peak.
Their peak is similar - both were a 2nd Team All Star once.

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02-24-2011, 01:17 AM
  #886
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Hey, I'm the one who went after Prentice for having his stats inflated by Bahtgate.
Bathgate will inflate everybody's stats. He's that good

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Old
02-24-2011, 01:18 AM
  #887
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Their peak is similar - both were a 2nd Team All Star once.
Yet Konstantinov was 2nd in Norris voting.

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Old
02-24-2011, 01:21 AM
  #888
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What exactly made Bert Corbeau suddenly worthy of being picked in the 300s?

As recently as ATD8, he was a MLDer. He then went from 541 to 464 to 459, which seemed ok, but then suddenly rocketed to 317 in ATD12 by a rookie GM. When questioned on it, he didn't reply IIRC. There was no new evidence presented and he still appears very mediocre compared to his drafted contemporaries.

The mistake was repeated last draft and he was taken 298th. I guess EB completes the canonization this time around by taking him in the early 300s again.

Besides toughness, one thing he does seem to have going for him is a decent offensive resume. His percentages of the 1st-place scoring defensemen in his best seasons are: 81, 61, 61, 59, 56, 48, 48, 29. This translates into about a 55-point outlier season, and six seasons from 33-46 points in a modern context. Which is much, much more significant than the last early defenseman EB's bio painted as passable offensively.

Still, to go this early he had better be damn good defensively, and not just tough.

Finally he belongs to a GM willing to do some work to sell him. I look forward to seeing what EB finds on him. He appears to be about the 12th-best defenseman of a generation; other stronger generations barely have that many selected already.

One thing is for sure - the statistical noise in this bio is going to drive me batsh!t crazy, particularly in the playoffs!

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Old
02-24-2011, 01:22 AM
  #889
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HomeNugget was there at 10h22 pm , did he left a list to someone?

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Old
02-24-2011, 01:28 AM
  #890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
Yet Konstantinov was 2nd in Norris voting.
That's a 1 year peak. Not much of a sample size.

Green's 1 year peak was 3rd in Norris voting, with Bobby Orr ahead of him.

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02-24-2011, 01:30 AM
  #891
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
How so? Do I have a preconceive image of Bodrov that I wouldn't knoe about?
knoe, not that I knoe of anyway.

My point was that if Dwight looks for all info, good and bad, about Bobrov, you won't like Bobrov once you've read it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Did Seve Bobrov ever drop. He's a top 10 Soviet according to many.
And in a soviet vaccuum, he ceratinly is.

But this is not a soviet vaccuum. The most important thing is how the player performed against the very best, or how well his performances can be translated to performances against the best.

the generation after Bobrov played against Canadian amateurs, some of whom became NHLers. And they dominated them. That looks good for them. I imagine translating Firsov and Starshinov into the NHL in their time, and I think they could star.

Bobrov's generation played against Canadian amateurs with no hope of playing in the NHL. And they dominated them once and got dominated another time, with mixed results a couple other times. That doesn't look good for them. I try to put Bobrov into an NHL context, and if he wasn't much better than Canadian scrubs, how can I imagine he would be an NHL player at all, let alone star? And keep in mind, at pick 30X, we're still looking at legitimate star players for the most part.

In a seventieslord-only ATD, Sologubov wouldn't be picked yet, and Bobrov would still have a ways to go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Gillies played with Bossy and Trottier most of the time. Tonelli usually played on lower lines.
How sure are you of this? icetime stats seem to indicate that Tonelli was with them in perhaps all but two seasons. He frequently was top-3 on the team in ES minutes among forwards (along with Trotts & Boss), with a good 2 minutes more than Gillies.

Quote:
But that's nothing like playing with Espo and Orr. That entire team was a bunch of outliers compared to the rest of the league, with the offense driven by Espo and Orr. How many of Cashman's points came from digging the puck out of the corners (which he was elite at) and just throwing it into the slot, knowing Espo would take care of things from there?

I get the point of removing outlier players from comparisons, but not when those players are the guys the player you are comparing played with!
Like I said, this accounts for three of his best 7 seasons. Other than that, he did not have any top-100 caliber players with him. The others did, for a long time. It evens out.

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02-24-2011, 01:36 AM
  #892
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Gillies played with Bossy and Trottier most of the time. Tonelli usually played on lower lines.
Bossy and Trottier had long careers, and didn't always play with the same linemates (or even with each other). Put simply, they played with Gillies earlier and Tonelli later.

Edit: Just checked the HSP files and it appears that the switch was made about 2/3 of the way through the 1981-82 regular season - it was Gillies-Trottier-Bossy before that and Tonelli-Trottier-Bossy the rest of the season and through the playoffs. Gillies never cracked 50 points in a season after that, so I won't bother looking any later.


Last edited by overpass: 02-24-2011 at 01:44 AM.
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Old
02-24-2011, 01:38 AM
  #893
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im going to sleep but to be honest I only have a 1 player plan so who can take it?

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02-24-2011, 01:39 AM
  #894
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im going to sleep but to be honest I only have a 1 player plan so who can take it?
I can

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02-24-2011, 01:39 AM
  #895
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im going to sleep but to be honest I only have a 1 player plan so who can take it?
I got ya if ya need. I'll be here a while.

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02-24-2011, 01:40 AM
  #896
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In a seventieslord-only ATD, Sologubov wouldn't be picked yet, and Bobrov would still have a ways to go.
You should do that some time. I'd follow it.

I hear Bobby Fischer would play 8 games of Chess against himself at time.

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02-24-2011, 01:45 AM
  #897
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I've got reens list when is the clock up...?

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02-24-2011, 01:47 AM
  #898
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
I've got reens list when is the clock up...?
6 Hours and 10 minutes from nowish.

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02-24-2011, 01:50 AM
  #899
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6 Hours and 10 minutes from nowish.
Oh snap. Well I may have to relay his list on to someone else then I don't know if I'll make it til 6 AM pacific time.

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02-24-2011, 01:51 AM
  #900
seventieslord
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You should do that some time. I'd follow it.

I hear Bobby Fischer would play 8 games of Chess against himself at time.
It's a little dream of mine. I mean, I could start a thread right now and have at 'er, but it would be epic self-indulgence.

That's nice of you to say you'd follow it though.

I always thought one day I'd do a book like that. Just start a mock 80-team draft where they each take 25 players/coaches and then make each pick strategically from there, playing the part of each GM. It would start with the clear BPA for probably 200 picks and only after that would position be a consideration.

Since I look for offense first and foremost and prefer not to have guys who can "just" check or fight or kill penalties, the final list would look a lot like an all-time top-2000 list. To understand what I mean, look at the 3rd and 4th lines of my last 4 ATD teams.

(although - since such a high percentage of the best forwards are centers, I'd absolutely have to draft any C/W as a winger in order to keep the balance; I would hate to get to 2000 picks and see a bunch of good centers I'd rather take over the past 100 wingers)

I did a sort of a dry run when I ran the mock "A" draft (after AA, before Beer league) last year - you saw that, right?

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