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What will it take for the Habs to be a contender

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Old
02-21-2011, 12:12 AM
  #51
Melvin Udall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
Yup. Habs are a middle of the pack team...nothing more, nothing less.

"Contenders" should never be mentioned in the same sentence as this team. And that's with a healthy Markov and Gorges.

JayBee,

You hit the nail on the head.

As I said earlier.......show me a team that consistantly finishes between the middle of the league and the bottom of the league and I'll show you a team that consistantly drafts players who will keep them there!




GO HABS

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02-21-2011, 12:24 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
More shooting luck. Another top-6 forward. And a healthy defense.

But mostly, more shooting luck. Their underlying numbers are excellent because they tend to carry the play at even-strength (something they haven't done in 15 years). But they haven't been able to buy a goal all year, even though their offense is leaps and bounds better than last year's.

Luck?

Surely you jest!

Maybe that's why Flyers are leading the East and Canucks are leading the Western Conference....L U C K!

Haven't head anything this funny in a long time....LUCK!


LUCK is when the PENS won the draft lottery in 2005 and chose Crosby.

Bad Luck is the ultimate excuse that (some) fans use when they have finally run out of excuses as to why their team is somewhere between not competative and down right terrible!



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02-21-2011, 12:37 AM
  #53
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I think what the team needs is two consistent power forwards on the top 2 lines. What that means is 2 guys, lets say Patches and AK for example, being a threat to score night in night out. We "sometimes" get that from one of these guys, and "never" get it from both in the same game. If two power forwards can be dangerous, game in game out, that will open up the ice for our small, speedy skilled guys. That is the only way we'll ever be able to compete for the big prize. That's why the inconsistent AK needs to be traded and someone else more consistent needs to replace him. Pacioretty is just now coming into his own, but he's not dominant yet. I drool at that St. Louis deal that just went down. Imagine if you could throw out Backes one shift, then Stewart the next. That's sick.

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02-21-2011, 12:46 AM
  #54
MathMan
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Originally Posted by King Kool Aid View Post
Luck?
Luck.

The Habs are one of the unluckiest shooting teams in the league. They're 4th on shots per game, and 26th in goals per game.

They are a much better team than last year, but somehow, they generate over 15% more shots compared to last year... and manage to score less. That's bad luck.

Average shooting luck would not put the Habs ahead of the Flyers, but they would be ahead of the Bruins given average shooting luck.

Luck plays a huge part in hockey in many areas. Failure to recognize this is failure of analysis, plain and simple. And shooting percentage is one of the most luck-driven factors of hockey success there is.

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02-21-2011, 12:49 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
So, 1 top 6 forward and a healthier Markov, and you consider this team a contender?
Markov, Gorges, and say a tough-minutes outscoring ES guy like a Dustin Penner, and this is probably one of the top 2 or 3 clubs in the conference, if not outright the best.

Considering that Montreal is probably about 4th-5th as it is, and that's despite all the injuries, it really wouldn't take all that much. Heck, one could argue they already are an outside contender on the strength of that alone.

The big problem is that they have the worst shooting luck in the league, which fools people into thinking that they suck. That and the fact that they sucked utterly last year, but this year's team is an entirely new animal.

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02-21-2011, 01:06 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Markov, Gorges, and say a tough-minutes outscoring ES guy like a Dustin Penner, and this is probably one of the top 2 or 3 clubs in the conference, if not outright the best.

Considering that Montreal is probably about 4th-5th as it is, and that's despite all the injuries, it really wouldn't take all that much. Heck, one could argue they already are an outside contender on the strength of that alone.

The big problem is that they have the worst shooting luck in the league, which fools people into thinking that they suck. That and the fact that they sucked utterly last year, but this year's team is an entirely new animal.
This is ridiculous.

It be the case if we replaced Gomez with a superstar center, but no, a healthy Markov and Gorges and a Penner does not make us the best in the East.

And, Markov has been injury prone for awhile -- at what point do we count that in to the equation and consider it the make-up of the team instead of dismissing it? This team IS Markov AND his injury issues.

Sorry, but we are very far from giving Philly a run for their money

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02-21-2011, 01:12 AM
  #57
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Halak, D'agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Latendresse, Bouillon, Robidas, Grabovski

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02-21-2011, 02:11 AM
  #58
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1) A relatively healthy defense (and by relatively healthy, I mean no more or no less healthy than the average team)

2) An upgrade on 2nd line centre

3) A top 6 winger upgrade

Even now, I believe the habs have the type of goalie that they can jump on and ride deep, if the defense can get a bit healthier.

There's really not a whole lot separating the teams in the east, outside of philly.

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02-21-2011, 03:32 AM
  #59
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A young superstar first liner that can only be acquired through drafting high or a club trying to destroy themselves like Colorado. Otherwise we're just patching every couple years with new veterans. We have a good young core right now and I really wish we'd stop going after thirty somethings and try and get younger like Toronto, without the fail.

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02-21-2011, 07:13 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb View Post
Healthy Dmen would be a great start tbh.
Health (especially on defence) will make us a contender. Our depth is average, but it's not bad. We need a regular line-up that we can rely on to be there game-in, game-out. Our breakout game is horrible right now.

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02-21-2011, 07:22 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Luck.

The Habs are one of the unluckiest shooting teams in the league. They're 4th on shots per game, and 26th in goals per game.

They are a much better team than last year, but somehow, they generate over 15% more shots compared to last year... and manage to score less. That's bad luck.

Average shooting luck would not put the Habs ahead of the Flyers, but they would be ahead of the Bruins given average shooting luck.

Luck plays a huge part in hockey in many areas. Failure to recognize this is failure of analysis, plain and simple. And shooting percentage is one of the most luck-driven factors of hockey success there is.
Did it ever come into play during your analysis that maybe our shots aren't going in due to lack of quality rather than lack of luck?

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02-21-2011, 07:30 AM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
I'll never blame a shooter/goals scorer for not having enough assists, as they are often not known for being passers. Gionta is not a play maker.

Do yourself a favour and have a look at the guys who have more goals than Gionta. Then, look at how much they're making. Then come back with the recap. I promise you that you'll be surprised by the results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KILLger View Post
Funny how when one says a certain player needs to give more he instantly becomes a basher...

Out of those right wingers, other than two of them (Grabner and Stafford), they all have about twice as many assists which makes their points total less ridiculous.
He might not be a playmaker but he's on pace for a whooping 13 assists... He needs to provide a bit more help to his linemates.

Concerning salaries, do yourself a favor and have a look at the guys who have more points and goals than Gionta then look at how much they're making then come back with the recap. I promise you that you'll be surprised by the results.
Out of those 10 RW above him, other than Briere, Nash and Iginla, pretty much everyone else make as much or less as him.

If you don't consider the RW position, he's 35th in goals and 150th in points... If you feel that's worth 5M$ a year...

All in all, I'm not saying Gionta is playing like crap but him, Gomez and Cammaleri need to give more than what they're currently giving if this team is to be successful.
45-50 points seasons aren't worth 5M$+
If you have only one guy like that on your team, it can be ok but right now, you have 17M$ worth of guys giving you around 135-150 points a season...

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02-21-2011, 07:37 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Kool Aid View Post
JayBee,

You hit the nail on the head.

As I said earlier.......show me a team that consistantly finishes between the middle of the league and the bottom of the league and I'll show you a team that consistantly drafts players who will keep them there!




GO HABS
And people have called me a hater for saying this time and time again.

You are in trouble when your excuse for lack of offense hinges on a D-man who hasn't played in 2 seasons and a defensive d-man who hasn't scored more than 5 goals in a season.

There is so much wrong with the team...I can't be the only one that sees this.

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02-21-2011, 07:39 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody View Post
Did it ever come into play during your analysis that maybe our shots aren't going in due to lack of quality rather than lack of luck?
Habs seem to think that they can score from the boards, apparently.

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02-21-2011, 07:40 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
Habs seem to think that they can score from the boards, apparently.
Anything to keep their fresh manicures from chipping.

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02-21-2011, 07:40 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flapshots View Post
Funny how when one says a certain player needs to give more he instantly becomes a basher...

Out of those right wingers, other than two of them (Grabner and Stafford), they all have about twice as many assists which makes their points total less ridiculous.
He might not be a playmaker but he's on pace for a whooping 13 assists... He needs to provide a bit more help to his linemates.

Concerning salaries, do yourself a favor and have a look at the guys who have more points and goals than Gionta then look at how much they're making then come back with the recap. I promise you that you'll be surprised by the results.
Out of those 10 RW above him, other than Briere, Nash and Iginla, pretty much everyone else make as much or less as him.

If you don't consider the RW position, he's 35th in goals and 150th in points... If you feel that's worth 5M$ a year...

All in all, I'm not saying Gionta is playing like crap but him, Gomez and Cammaleri need to give more than what they're currently giving if this team is to be successful.
45-50 points seasons aren't worth 5M$+ and if you have one guy like that on your team, it can be ok but right now, you have 17M$ worth of guys giving you around 125 points a season...
If you take out second assists how many points do those guys with more assists than Gionta have though? I'm not going to praise a player more because he touched the puck before another player made a play to a guy who finished. Point totals don't matter if the person helps you win games. Gionta scores goals and that's what he's paid to do.

$5,000,000 isn't that much considering how much the cap goes up each year and there's not many people you can get better than Gionta for 5 million out of free agency. The reason most of those guys are making less than Gionta is because of their age, and being drafted by the club they're with. Would you really want Johan Franzen at 4 million until time ends?

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02-21-2011, 07:42 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody View Post
Anything to keep their fresh manicures from chipping.
I guess healthy d-men will somehow change this.

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02-21-2011, 07:44 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
This is ridiculous.

It be the case if we replaced Gomez with a superstar center, but no, a healthy Markov and Gorges and a Penner does not make us the best in the East.

And, Markov has been injury prone for awhile -- at what point do we count that in to the equation and consider it the make-up of the team instead of dismissing it? This team IS Markov AND his injury issues.

Sorry, but we are very far from giving Philly a run for their money
Do people realize that Markov had more points (8) than Hamrlik last year while playing barely most than 41 games ?
Plekanec has been on the ice for 90 goals we scored last year. The highest total for a Hab.
Markov, 73...(thats was the pace of Sedin and Crosby over the full season)

His presence alone should be enough to bring you at the very least (and im probably underestimating that number) 25 goals/year, while reducing the goalscoring chances of your opponents, too...

We are also seeing the effect of Gorges on the PK, by his absence, as the unit is not that solid anymore...the fatigue must play, too, but that means you have to play Picard more than you were expecting, you are playing Weber more than you were expecting etc...

For the winger part, its different, its not like we're missing that piece because of an injury. But we are just, at worst, 6 points behind Boston. Seriously, with Markov and Gorges, mathematically, we should be in front of them.

Does it make us contenders ? Its semantics anyway, but we should be sitting on the top of our division, but i guess that some would complain about something else.

(Take away Chara/Pronger for the whole season, we'll see if the Bruins/Flyers are that good)

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02-21-2011, 07:44 AM
  #69
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LOL @ crapping on the top goal scorer on the team for not having enough assissts.

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02-21-2011, 07:48 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Rutabaga View Post
Do people realize that Markov had more points (8) than Hamrlik last year while playing barely most than 41 games ?
Plekanec has been on the ice for 90 goals we scored last year. The highest total for a Hab.
Markov, 73...(thats was the pace of Sedin and Crosby over the full season)

His presence alone should be enough to bring you at the very least (and im probably underestimating that number) 25 goals/year, while reducing the goalscoring chances of your opponents, too...

We are also seeing the effect of Gorges on the PK, by his absence, as the unit is not that solid anymore...the fatigue must play, too, but that means you have to play Picard more than you were expecting, you are playing Weber more than you were expecting etc...

For the winger part, its different, its not like we're missing that piece because of an injury. But we are just, at worst, 6 points behind Boston. Seriously, with Markov and Gorges, mathematically, we should be in front of them.

Does it make us contenders ? Its semantics anyway, but we should be sitting on the top of our division, but i guess that some would complain about something else.

(Take away Chara/Pronger for the whole season, we'll see if the Bruins/Flyers are that good)
The game is played on the ice. Too much talk about "what we could be" and not enough talk about "what we are".

Bruins could be a far better team with a healthy Savard. Markov, well, the old Markov was a hell of a player...but if you think he all of a sudden makes the team's glaring problems magically go away, I don't know what to tell you.

The only 30 goal scorer the Habs had while Markov was there was Kovalev (I believe). Habs have had trouble scoring for years....yes, even when Markov was healthy....so I don't know how you can say Markov is the reason why this team can't score worth a lick.

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Old
02-21-2011, 07:49 AM
  #71
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Pacioretty - Plekanec - Gionta
Gagne - Richards - Cammalleri
Pouliot - Desharnais - Langenbrunner
Eager - White - Bradley

Markov - Gorges
Pitkanen - Subban
Gill - Erskine

Price
Osgood

BOLD = UFA's this summer

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Old
02-21-2011, 07:56 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
Gionta is on pace for 28 goals this year and that, after a very rough start to the season. This would equal his second best total career-wise. Really, what are people expecting?
I don't expect anything more from him, this is who he has been his entire career, and the reason I've stated on a numerous occasions that he was a poor signing. His dozen assists to go with them 28 goals is terrible. He isn't a whole lot better than Gomez. Ideally both should be let go, but I'd settle for just Gomez.

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02-21-2011, 07:56 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by MattKOTW View Post
Would you really want Johan Franzen at 4 million until time ends?
Hell yes and I'm sure most Montreal fans also would

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02-21-2011, 08:01 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
The game is played on the ice. Too much talk about "what we could be" and not enough talk about "what we are".

Bruins could be a far better team with a healthy Savard. Markov, well, the old Markov was a hell of a player...but if you think he all of a sudden makes the team's glaring problems magically go away, I don't know what to tell you.

The only 30 goal scorer the Habs had while Markov was there was Kovalev (I believe). Habs have had trouble scoring for years....yes, even when Markov was healthy....so I don't know how you can say Markov is the reason why this team can't score worth a lick.
Well, we're talking about what is missing on our team, hypothetically, so talking about an healthy/injured player is valid, i think.

Missing an important piece like Savard is obviously a huge loss. But they have Bergeron and Krejci.
Like losing Cammalleri for a year would not be a drama for us.
With the cap, you have to make a choice in you depth.
Everyone is saying that we're not contenders, but every single teams have weaknesses.

For instance, i dont have a big confidence in Vancouver secondary players. Philadelphia and Detroit have great teams, yes, but they also have huge question marks in the net !
Behind Chara, how solid is the Boston's defense ? (They're lucky that Burke is an idiot, though.)

You just cannot have a perfect complete team, you have to make decisions, and sometimes, they're not good, but here, you're just unlucky. It could be worse, because if Plekanec is out, Larsson is ours, but still, the grass is not always greener on the neighbour's garden !

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02-21-2011, 08:04 AM
  #75
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This is not the year for us to be contenders. Maybe 2-3 years down the road, though.

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