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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VI

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:10 PM
  #951
BillyShoe1721
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Via list, papershoes selects D Bill Hajt


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Old
03-03-2011, 05:14 PM
  #952
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The Philadelphia Firebirds are happy to select the final piece to their 2nd line, a man that could do it all, who has fallen an average of 124 picks compared to his draft position in the last 5 drafts, a tremendous value pick at this point, LW Brian Sutter


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03-03-2011, 05:14 PM
  #953
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nice hair cut

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:16 PM
  #954
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
The Philadelphia Firebirds are happy to select the final piece to their 2nd line, a man that could do it all, who has fallen an average of 124 picks compared to his draft position in the last 5 drafts, a tremendous value pick at this point, LW Brian Sutter

Debated trading up for him, don't think he deserved to fall further than Brent. Nice pick.

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:20 PM
  #955
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He doesn't deserve to be picked after Brent. Brian is the best Sutter.

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:20 PM
  #956
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
Via list, papershoes selects D Bill Hajt

WTF?

He was supposed to fall into the late 400s or early 500s like he usually does.

Here's a fun fact:

# of times a defenseman was a top pairing PKer on a Top 3 NHL PK (1967-68 to 2007-08)

Chris Chelios 9
Bill Hajt 6
Ray Bourque 5
Denis Potvin 5
Mike Ramsey 4
Serge Savard 4
Scott Stevens 4
Tim Horton 4
Nicklas Lidstrom 4
Terry Harper 3
Guy Laponte 3
Bill White 3
Jim Shoenfeld 3
ATD undrafted 3
ATD undrafted 3
MLD defenseman 3
AA defenseman 3

Source = pnep

Not bad company.

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:21 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
who was better during his career?
Bobby Clarke for sure. Maybe Bryan Trottier.

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:23 PM
  #958
TheDevilMadeMe
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I think the Sutter family all tends to go too early, but this is actually pretty good value for Brian.

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:27 PM
  #959
TheDevilMadeMe
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I'm currently writing a bio for my selection and will be so pissed if Nalyd takes him (especially since I definitely need him more than Nalyd).

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Old
03-03-2011, 05:45 PM
  #960
BillyShoe1721
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I'm guessing he's a forward.

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:07 PM
  #961
nik jr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Bobby Clarke for sure. Maybe Bryan Trottier.
can you validate that statistically?

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:14 PM
  #962
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Damn. Jarvis and Sanderson was my list... I'll puck in twenty minutes.

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:15 PM
  #963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
Via list, papershoes selects D Bill Hajt

He kind of looks like jim carey in dumb and dumber. Nice pick hajt is an underrated defensemen

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:25 PM
  #964
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The Minnesota Fighting Saints select Lester Patrick, coach

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:42 PM
  #965
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
The Minnesota Fighting Saints select Lester Patrick, coach
Damn, I was strongly considering him with the 2nd of my two upcoming picks. Last of the second tier coaches left, perhaps. And a great choice for an offensive-minded team like yours has turned out to be.

My pick is coming shortly.

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Old
03-03-2011, 06:51 PM
  #966
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The Swamp Devils are thrilled to select the most underrated superstar of the dead puck era, I guy I think has been the best overall offensive package for a long time, probably better than many of the centers selected recently:

Zigmund Palffy, RW

For a 7+ year stretch in the heart of the dead puck era, Palffy scored 89 points per 82 games played
(adjusted to an average of 240 goals per team, this equals 44 goals, 50 assists, 94 points per 82 games played). This is basically Paul Kariya level. I don’t judge players on a “per game” basis, so I don’t think Palffy is as good as Paul here. But he’s long due to have been selected. Statistically, he performed very well defensively versus his generally terrible off-ice comparables. While GF/GA numbers are definitely team based, I think it’s pretty clear that Palffy wasn’t a Bure or Kovalchuk without the puck. See the overpass quote on the bottom for details.

And despite Palffy’s injury problems, he managed to finished to finish top 10 in NHL scoring 4 times (5, 8, 9, 10). Now, a top 10 finish is an arbitrary cutoff, but just to get an idea of how rare 4 Top 10s is in the modern era, here are some drafted modern players who didn’t meet the standard. (This is not an exhaustive list)

Three top 10 finishes: Gilmour, Modano, Fleury, Naslund, Heatley, Richards*
Two top 10 finishes: Fedorov, Sundin, Lindros, Lafontaine, Datsyuk, Zetterberg,* Hossa, Elias, Malkin, Roenick, Mogilny, Turgeon
One top 10 finish: K Stevens
Zero top 10 finishes: Roberts, Tkachuk, Nieuwendyk, Damphousse, Clark, Bondra

*projected after this year.

Keep in mind, this is just top 10 seasons in points, a relatively simplistic measurement of regular season offensive consistency, and says nothing about a player’s overall game.

Top 30 finishes for Palffy (30 teams, so why not?):
Points: 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 23rd
Goals: 5th, 5th, 8th, 15th, 15th, 20th
Assists: 13th, 18th, 19th, 28th

Want to see something sad/hilarious? Check out the injury-depleted LA Kings Roster of 2002-03. Palffy finished 19th in the league in assists that season. He also had more assists than any teammates had points! Talk about a one-man show!

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass
Palffy was a terrific scorer and playmaker. His numbers compare very well to other offence-first wingers of the past 2 decades.

All numbers are for the players prime or best 7-8 consecutive years worth of seasons. For Palffy, this is almost his whole career. Most others didn't do much outside of the years I selected. All numbers are per 82 games. I also left Jagr and Selanne out - their numbers are considerably better than this group's numbers.

ESGF=even strength goals for, ESGA=even strength goals against, ESP=even strength points, PPP= power play points, GF/GA On = goals for/against ratio with the player on the ice at even strength, GF/GA Off = goals for/against ratio with the player off the ice at even strength (for a rough estimate of team strength). All numbers are adjusted to a scoring level of 240 goals per season.

PlayerYearsSeasonsESGFESGAGAPtsESPPPPSHPGF/GA OnGF/GA Off
Ziggy Palffy96-047.377156445094563541.280.80
Pavel Bure93-027.637468524293592861.080.93
Paul Kariya95-037.807160425193543731.180.81
Dany Heatley02-096.187562434791563421.200.83
Markus Naslund99-066.786456414890513811.141.01
Jarome Iginla01-097.707156444690563121.260.87
Keith Tkachuk95-027.017764464389582731.200.90
Alexander Mogilny93-017.486859414688533131.150.96
Ilya Kovalchuk02-096.656672474187523510.920.81
XXX03-095.877068394786542841.040.84
Martin St. Louis02-096.627064344983522561.090.81
Peter Bondra95-027.166355503180492661.150.93
Palffy was the highest scorer of this group per game. At even strength, his scoring numbers are similar to Bure, Tkachuk, Heatley, Iginla, Kariya, Mogilny, and XXX. On the power play, only Kariya and Naslund are better, and Kovalchuk is similar.

Also, Palffy had very respectable defensive results. His goals against are similar to Iginla's, lower than all the other top scorers of this group, and far lower than Bure and Kovalchuk's. His team can't get too much credit for that - his team's off-ice results are worse than any other player among this group!

While I haven't come across anything on Palffy's defensive game beyond a single first-place Selke vote in one season, I'll argue that he was at least respectable defensively. Sometimes half the battle is showing up - see Bure and Kovalchuk.

In the end, among this group, Palffy's numbers are the most similar to Kariya's and Iginla's. Neither Kariya nor Iginla were impact players outside of these years, and both were drafted far ahead of Palffy. While Iginla brings leadership and some physical play, and isn't a great comparable, I think Kariya is a good match.

Why is Palffy drafted after Kariya and the rest of these players? Durability is one, Palffy missed games due to injury in several seasons. This meant that his scoring finishes weren't as high as they could have been, and he didn't make any all-star teams. However, durability is far less valuable in the ATD, especially for players past the first unit, as we have spares who are pretty good players themselves.

Palffy also played on terrible teams, out of the spotlight, for almost his whole career, and rarely played in the playoffs. I rarely saw him play, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. As a result of that, his reputation wasn't as high as it could have been and he gets underrated.
Palffy rarely had a chance to play in the playoffs, but put up a respectable 19 points in 24 playoff games, playing on an LA Kings team that never went into the playoffs with home ice advantage (finishing 5th, 7th, 7th in the West).

He also has 43 points in 30 career World Championship games, for whatever that is worth.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 03-03-2011 at 07:56 PM.
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Old
03-03-2011, 07:03 PM
  #967
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Mooseheads select LW, Gaye Stewart.

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:11 PM
  #968
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TDMM, my post you quoted doesn't say so but I think the numbers I posted are adjusted for scoring level. Palffy actually scored 89 points per 82 games.

Edit: Saw it the second time through. Scoring level of 240 goals per team season.


Last edited by overpass: 03-03-2011 at 07:24 PM.
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Old
03-03-2011, 07:14 PM
  #969
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
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TDMM, my post you quoted doesn't say so but I think the numbers I posted are adjusted for scoring level. Palffy actually scored 89 points per 82 games.
That makes more sense. I'll edit it. By the way, I hate the fact that we can't quote posts in deleted threads elsewhere. Putting your table back together manually was a royal PITA

Edit: And now that I looked at it, I still screwed it up. Trying to fix it now.

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:34 PM
  #970
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Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
Via list, papershoes selects D Bill Hajt
As if his penalty kill wasn't strong enough already...

From 75-76 to 85-86 Buffalo had the best PK in the league. And Hajt killed more penalties than any other defenceman in the league over this time (virtually tied with Robinson and Salming).

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:36 PM
  #971
TheDevilMadeMe
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Looks like papershoes is trying to win games 0 to -1

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:39 PM
  #972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The Swamp Devils are thrilled to select the most underrated superstar of the dead puck era, I guy I think has been the best overall offensive package for a long time, probably better than many of the centers selected recently:

Zigmund Palffy, RW

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneberg View Post
Mooseheads select LW, Gaye Stewart.

Both great picks at this point if you ask me. I was kind of hoping Gaye Stewart would be my second old timer finally selected but you beat me to him.

The fact he won two cups with the Maple Leafs just makes him even better.

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:53 PM
  #973
Dreakmur
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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
can you validate that statistically?
Can you validate your claim that Jarvis was the best statistically?

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:54 PM
  #974
TheDevilMadeMe
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I'm just happy to get off the non-vintage-players schneid.

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Old
03-03-2011, 08:10 PM
  #975
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I'm just happy to get off the non-vintage-players schneid.
Palffy is a good pick at this point. Top 10 in points 4 times, I was hoping to get him with my next pick seeing as I need RW's lol, you *******.

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