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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VI

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Old
02-25-2011, 11:57 PM
  #126
EagleBelfour
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Davydov.. basically, he's a lesser Ragulin.
So, excellent defensively, under average offensively and very physical? That's not the read I had on Davydov at all!

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02-26-2011, 12:07 AM
  #127
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Kings of the Ice said he was very fast and agile, and very strong defensively. I think I might have overstated his physicality though, he only ever took 2 penalties or less in any tournament and the book doesn't explicitly state that he was a physical player.

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02-26-2011, 12:09 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Davydov.. basically, he's a lesser Ragulin.
Sounds about right...175 spots makes a big difference.

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So, excellent defensively, under average offensively and very physical?
That's the impression I get of him as well. Obviously not as physical and defensive as Ragulin. Davydov would be average offensively based on my readings.

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02-26-2011, 12:34 AM
  #129
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In addition, while you have a valid point about his post-season power play production, you neglect to mention that his ES production was almost identical- and, when broken down on a per-game basis, was consistently among the best. When the guy is scoring as many ES goals in one round as others did the entire post-season, it's harder to rag on the guy, isn't it?
I am aware of Tkachuk's even strength goalscoring resume, in fact I posted it myself. It is ok, but there are a number of wingers still available who were comparable even strength goalscorers, some of whom will be available much later, and a couple of whom were almost certainly better all-around even strength players than Tkachuk. Maybe you're not aware of them; I will point them out when they are drafted.

And yes, Tkachuk's even-strength goalscoring in the postseason is actually ok. He maintained something close to his regular season rates at even strength, so you can't really see that as a negative. It's his disasterous postseason powerplay production that really defines his reputation as a choker. Problem here is that, in an all-time sense, Keith was never that great an even strength player to begin with, especially when his lack of playmaking, mediocre speed and indifferent defense are taken into account.


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02-26-2011, 12:54 AM
  #130
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I almost took Vitaly Davydov with my last pick. I was hoping he'd drop but was doubtful. Nice Pick!

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Old
02-26-2011, 12:58 AM
  #131
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Well, Nels wasn't too bad of a playmaker. He had quite a number of pretty solid years. So I wouldn't say it a terribly bad thing for Dunderdale to compare to him in playmaking.
Stewart's playmaking was pretty bad for such a scorer. He's one of the most unbalanced goals/assists scorers in history, especially for a center. Interestingly enough, in both of Stewart's top-10 assists seasons, he was tied for second in assists on the Maroons - behind Noble the first time and Smith the second time.

But I think even the comparison to Stewart is pretty apt, and Joe Nieuwendyk wasn't such a great playmaker, either. I don't think it's nearly as hard to build a line around these guys as Devil seems to, though in a 40 team draft it's going to be harder because high-end playmaking from the wing is rare, especially after pick #300. But, I mean...put Dunderdale or Nieuwendyk on a line with Recchi or St. Louis or Morris or Rousseau, for example, and the unit would function just fine - the wing and center would just flip-flop their traditional roles.

Nieuwendyk and Dunderdale are both currently the only player on their respective teams' second lines. I look forward to seeing what their GMs do with the wingers.

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02-26-2011, 01:19 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
An interesting thing about Harper's 8th in Norris voting:

NORRIS: (162-162)
1. Harry Howell, NYR 113 (79-34)
2. Pierre Pilote, Chi 95 (32-63)
3. Bobby Orr, Bos 36 (10-26)
4. Tim Horton, Tor 34 (19-15)
5. J.C. Tremblay, Mtl 18 (9-9)
6. ***, Det 8 (0-8)
7. ***, Chi 7 (0-7)
T8. Terry Harper, Mtl 5 (5-0)

He was 8th, but two guys ahead of him had no first place votes, whereas he got 5.
In 1965-66, the voting was done in two stages - halfway through the season, and at the end of the year. The results are shown (first half votes - second half votes).

Harper got 5 votes during the first half of the season (not sure how many are 1st, 2nd, 3rd) and none in the second half. The defensemen in 6th and 7th only got votes in the second half of the season.

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02-26-2011, 01:25 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
In 1965-66, the voting was done in two stages - halfway through the season, and at the end of the year. The results are shown (first half votes - second half votes).

Harper got 5 votes during the first half of the season (not sure how many are 1st, 2nd, 3rd) and none in the second half. The defensemen in 6th and 7th only got votes in the second half of the season.
Ahh, I see. That's interesting. So he was good enough to grab votes in the first half, and none in the second, the fact that he still managed an 8th seems pretty good to me.

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02-26-2011, 01:38 AM
  #134
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Kimberley Dynamiters select D Ken Morrow.

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Old
02-26-2011, 01:47 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I knew a lot of my information was off, but I also knew the best way to get it right was to post it in this thread and hope you read it and cared enoough to correct it.

I appreciate the help.


In your playmaking study, Dunderdale had 3 top-10s in assists and 6 top-20s. That's what I was basing my comment about top-10s on.
Your welcome, but that was pretty lazy of you. If you're trying to get me to buy you an SIHR membership myself, you came awfully close this morning.

The 3rd, 4th, 4th probably equate to top-10s literally speaking, but percentage-wise they are mediocre, and not as impressive as that one 5th he had. They actually do a great job of highlighting the problems that you'll run into when trying to use that study to compare players from then to now. A 10th back then simply isn't a 10th today... or even a 20th.

What it can be very useful for, however, is for comparing players from around the same time: 1910-1940, for example, all compares pretty well. the whole O6 era compares well within itself, and so does the post-expansion era (although the bottom ends of the leaderboards were occasionally pretty pathetic in the 70s)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Well, Nels wasn't too bad of a playmaker. He had quite a number of pretty solid years. So I wouldn't say it a terribly bad thing for Dunderdale to compare to him in playmaking.
Yeah he was. It was not the age of specialization. high goalscorers got a lot of assists almost by default. Stewart had about half as many assists as his goal totals said he should have.

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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
An interesting thing about Harper's 8th in Norris voting:

NORRIS: (162-162)
1. Harry Howell, NYR 113 (79-34)
2. Pierre Pilote, Chi 95 (32-63)
3. Bobby Orr, Bos 36 (10-26)
4. Tim Horton, Tor 34 (19-15)
5. J.C. Tremblay, Mtl 18 (9-9)
6. ***, Det 8 (0-8)
7. ***, Chi 7 (0-7)
T8. Terry Harper, Mtl 5 (5-0)

He was 8th, but two guys ahead of him had no first place votes, whereas he got 5.
Nah, that's an 8th. nothing more. But still, he was probably the BDA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Stewart's playmaking was pretty bad for such a scorer. He's one of the most unbalanced goals/assists scorers in history, especially for a center. Interestingly enough, in both of Stewart's top-10 assists seasons, he was tied for second in assists on the Maroons - behind Noble the first time and Smith the second time.

But I think even the comparison to Stewart is pretty apt, and Joe Nieuwendyk wasn't such a great playmaker, either. I don't think it's nearly as hard to build a line around these guys as Devil seems to, though in a 40 team draft it's going to be harder because high-end playmaking from the wing is rare, especially after pick #300. But, I mean...put Dunderdale or Nieuwendyk on a line with Recchi or St. Louis or Morris or Rousseau, for example, and the unit would function just fine - the wing and center would just flip-flop their traditional roles.

Nieuwendyk and Dunderdale are both currently the only player on their respective teams' second lines. I look forward to seeing what their GMs do with the wingers.
You are 100% correct on this, and saved me from a long post.

Recchi and St. Louis are such unique players. I hoped to get the chance to steal one of them and if I had, I'd have taken Dunderdale myself.

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Old
02-26-2011, 01:51 AM
  #136
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Nah, that's an 8th. nothing more. But still, he was probably the BDA.
Yeah, I wasn't planning on pimping it all that much, and HO quickly corrected me on what it really meant. But yeah, I agree, I looked and looked and I don't think anyone else on the board has his 2 top-10 Norris finishes (other than some active guys who have as many top-10 Norris finishes as they have ATD credible seasons total).

I also don't think that a better partner existed for Lester Patrick at this point. From my readings, Harper was a rock-solid defensive d-man who liked to use his strength to his advantage (didn't read anything about him being a physical monster, but certainly that he used his strength to stop opposing players), and on top of that, he's a right handed shot.

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02-26-2011, 02:01 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Yeah, I wasn't planning on pimping it all that much, and HO quickly corrected me on what it really meant. But yeah, I agree, I looked and looked and I don't think anyone else on the board has his 2 top-10 Norris finishes (other than some active guys who have as many top-10 Norris finishes as they have ATD credible seasons total).

I also don't think that a better partner existed for Lester Patrick at this point. From my readings, Harper was a rock-solid defensive d-man who liked to use his strength to his advantage (didn't read anything about him being a physical monster, but certainly that he used his strength to stop opposing players), and on top of that, he's a right handed shot.
If you extend that criteria to include all-star voting (where the results are similar yet much more extensive while still semi-reliable) you will see there are plenty of guys with two top-10s... and they are better than 9th and 10th.

However, Harper was maybe the best defensive D-man at one time, and with his offensive numbers he was probably less likely to get votes.

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02-26-2011, 02:03 AM
  #138
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Keep in mind, that Harper's competition seemed to be pretty fierce at times. He wasn't going to crack the top-10 very often with the guys he was competing against, especially considering he wasn't an offensive dman.

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02-26-2011, 02:11 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Keep in mind, that Harper's competition seemed to be pretty fierce at times. He wasn't going to crack the top-10 very often with the guys he was competing against, especially considering he wasn't an offensive dman.
same thing with the other guys I can see.

I'm not criticizing. Point is, a lot of guys were top-10 in voting twice or more, and higher than 9th/10th.

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02-26-2011, 02:16 AM
  #140
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
same thing with the other guys I can see.

I'm not criticizing. Point is, a lot of guys were top-10 in voting twice or more, and higher than 9th/10th.
Fair enough.. to be fair, a lot of the AST voting is missing for some of Harper's career, but then again, that's probably true for a lot of guys still available as well.

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02-26-2011, 02:18 AM
  #141
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Fair enough.. to be fair, a lot of the AST voting is missing for some of Harper's career, but then again, that's probably true for a lot of guys still available as well.
ASG appearances when not a member of the cup-winning team can also be used as a proxy for sub-4th all-star voting throughout the O6 era.

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02-26-2011, 02:27 AM
  #142
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That's true..

Harper was in the ASG in '65, '67, '73 and '75. I think only the 1967 year was when he joined it as part of the cup winning team. Incidentally, that's also the year he placed 8th in Norris voting.

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02-26-2011, 02:34 AM
  #143
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That's true..

Harper was in the ASG in '65, '67, '73 and '75. I think only the 1967 year was when he joined it as part of the cup winning team. Incidentally, that's also the year he placed 8th in Norris voting.
You can check this by clicking on the ASG listed in harper's hockey-reference profile. in both his first two ASG he was a member of the cup winners. The other two are legitimate, but are conference-based and he was in the weak conference, so they don't tell us much except that he was an above-average player those years.

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02-26-2011, 04:09 AM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Nieuwendyk and Dunderdale are both currently the only player on their respective teams' second lines. I look forward to seeing what their GMs do with the wingers.
I admit I seriously considered Claude Lemieux on RW, but the lack of playmaking gave me doubt. Well, the choice has been made for me last night, so...

Bill Mosienko, RW


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02-26-2011, 04:44 AM
  #145
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Sorry, was having internet complications.

LW: Marty Pavelich

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Old
02-26-2011, 06:33 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
An interesting thing about Harper's 8th in Norris voting:

NORRIS: (162-162)
1. Harry Howell, NYR 113 (79-34)
2. Pierre Pilote, Chi 95 (32-63)
3. Bobby Orr, Bos 36 (10-26)
4. Tim Horton, Tor 34 (19-15)
5. J.C. Tremblay, Mtl 18 (9-9)
6. ***, Det 8 (0-8)
7. ***, Chi 7 (0-7)
T8. Terry Harper, Mtl 5 (5-0)

He was 8th, but two guys ahead of him had no first place votes, whereas he got 5.
He got 5 points in 1st half voting, and 0 in the 2nd half.

Voting was still 5-3-1, so he has at most 1 1st or 2nd place vote in the first half.

There were 18 voters, and max was 90 points in each half, and 180 total.


Last edited by BM67: 02-26-2011 at 06:41 AM.
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Old
02-26-2011, 09:55 AM
  #147
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Recchi and St. Louis are such unique players. I hoped to get the chance to steal one of them and if I had, I'd have taken Dunderdale myself.
Would you take Dunderdale over Nieuwendyk, in the battle of the goofy names? Sort of a tough one, and says a lot, I think, about how we value old vs. modern players. In this case, I think Nieuwendyk is actually helped by being a modern player because we know more about him. We know that he was specifically an all-time great at tipping airborne pucks in front of the net, for example. We know that he was a strong (though somewhat overrated, IMO) playoff performer. Dunderdale has those three goals titles out west, but he remains mostly faceless to us. We don't really know if his high PIM totals mean he was a puckwinner, an enforcer, or just a sloppy mess.

Tough choice, I think.

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02-26-2011, 09:57 AM
  #148
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With the 339th pick, the Inglewood Jacks will be selecting the only Art Ross Trophy winner left and the only Hart Trophy winner left from 1955-present: Henrik Sedin. Sedin will fit in nicely with our squad as a decent two-way center, but really where he will provide his spark is on the offensive end with his superior playmaking ability. More of a bio coming later on because I'm still a little drunk from last night and don't feel like writing one now.

(Hedberg and vancityluongo have been PMed)


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Old
02-26-2011, 10:17 AM
  #149
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With the 339th pick, the Inglewood Jacks will be selecting the only Art Ross Trophy winner left and the only Hart Trophy winner left from 1955-present: Henrik Sedin. Sedin will fit in nicely with our squad as a decent two-way center, but really where he will provide his spark is on the offensive end with his superior playmaking ability. More of a bio coming later on because I'm still a little drunk from last night and don't feel like writing one now.
EXCELLENT pick. I knew that he would fall, and unfairly so, into the 300's. This guy is someone who should be selected in the mid 200's at least. Not only does he have a very strong playmaking record, but his intangibles game has improved tremendously over time. Not only that, but he's on his way this season to another assists crown, probably top-5 in points and a case for the Hart trophy as well. I was planning on stealing him myself, but I don't think Sedin and Martinec would work very well, because Henrik isn't a super fast skater.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised though, arrbez took him last draft too.

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02-26-2011, 10:18 AM
  #150
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OP is updated. My updates will be sporadic today, as I am busy all day, so if someone wants to keep tabs on things, go right ahead.

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