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Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

C Tomáš Hertl (2012, 17th overall, San Jose)

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Old
04-12-2012, 12:27 AM
  #76
Phion Keneuf
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^ fair enough. Different views I guess. I thought Forsie made some nice plays and was dominant at times, just couldn't finish. Collberg was awesome when I saw him play throughout the tourny.

Yea I agree on you observations on Hertl. Kid will be really solid. Wonder it the Yotes will draft him. Would be a good fit imho.

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04-12-2012, 01:48 PM
  #77
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As to the stats of all those Czechs in the Extraliga comparables --a further analysis needs to be done --remember that Hertl played on a lousy team that got relegated I believe--in any case they were a bottom feeder team in the league-that he stood out on a poor team (in the standings) may be more impressive than sOME of those other Czechs who later went to the NHL ---SOME of them probably played on top or at least mid-level teams in the standings in their time --so with a better surrounding cast --usually it means more points in scoring IF you get similar minutes to the comparables median minutes times... So another stat ---Time played -is crucial too!

IF Hertl needed more playing time than the median time for these comparables THEN his stats are less impressive...IF he did it in less time played then the opposite is true...IF he did it with about the same time as the median amount of minutes played--AND further if he did it mostly at ES instead of mere PP points then compare the PP to ES points ratio and time played in each aspect to the other comparables--IF you did ALL that analysis we'd get a truer picture of his accomplishment..In the plain vanilla of the stats alone as they are,he looks to be pretty impressive for a kid in the men's league..but if there are further confirmations from the extra analysis of those other states like Time played per game and PP to ES ratio THEN it could add or subtract from the impression. For instance IF JAGR played on a better team,played more minutes per game,averaged more PP time per game ,had a beetter PP to Es points ratio --then we might think Hertl's numbers could be greater too if he got similar opportunity...

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04-12-2012, 02:37 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
As to the stats of all those Czechs in the Extraliga comparables --a further analysis needs to be done --remember that Hertl played on a lousy team that got relegated I believe--in any case they were a bottom feeder team in the league-that he stood out on a poor team (in the standings) may be more impressive than sOME of those other Czechs who later went to the NHL ---SOME of them probably played on top or at least mid-level teams in the standings in their time --so with a better surrounding cast --usually it means more points in scoring IF you get similar minutes to the comparables median minutes times... So another stat ---Time played -is crucial too!

IF Hertl needed more playing time than the median time for these comparables THEN his stats are less impressive...IF he did it in less time played then the opposite is true...IF he did it with about the same time as the median amount of minutes played--AND further if he did it mostly at ES instead of mere PP points then compare the PP to ES points ratio and time played in each aspect to the other comparables--IF you did ALL that analysis we'd get a truer picture of his accomplishment..In the plain vanilla of the stats alone as they are,he looks to be pretty impressive for a kid in the men's league..but if there are further confirmations from the extra analysis of those other states like Time played per game and PP to ES ratio THEN it could add or subtract from the impression. For instance IF JAGR played on a better team,played more minutes per game,averaged more PP time per game ,had a beetter PP to Es points ratio --then we might think Hertl's numbers could be greater too if he got similar opportunity...
I'm sure that's all relevant here, and I think the guys at hockey prospectus spit out a formula that attempts to account for all that. But either way, when Hertl is the #1 guy in the draft based on point equivalencies its impressive..

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04-12-2012, 03:02 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
As to the stats of all those Czechs in the Extraliga comparables --a further analysis needs to be done --remember that Hertl played on a lousy team that got relegated I believe--in any case they were a bottom feeder team in the league-that he stood out on a poor team (in the standings) may be more impressive than sOME of those other Czechs who later went to the NHL ---SOME of them probably played on top or at least mid-level teams in the standings in their time --so with a better surrounding cast --usually it means more points in scoring IF you get similar minutes to the comparables median minutes times... So another stat ---Time played -is crucial too!

IF Hertl needed more playing time than the median time for these comparables THEN his stats are less impressive...IF he did it in less time played then the opposite is true...IF he did it with about the same time as the median amount of minutes played--AND further if he did it mostly at ES instead of mere PP points then compare the PP to ES points ratio and time played in each aspect to the other comparables--IF you did ALL that analysis we'd get a truer picture of his accomplishment..In the plain vanilla of the stats alone as they are,he looks to be pretty impressive for a kid in the men's league..but if there are further confirmations from the extra analysis of those other states like Time played per game and PP to ES ratio THEN it could add or subtract from the impression. For instance IF JAGR played on a better team,played more minutes per game,averaged more PP time per game ,had a beetter PP to Es points ratio --then we might think Hertl's numbers could be greater too if he got similar opportunity...
You're reading too much into stats. Hudler was a PPG player during his draft year, basically carrying one of the weaker teams in the league on his small shoulders.
Havlát was not even a PPG in the season after his draft (and had 5 points the year he was drafted), playing on the line with the best point compiler in the league. Milan Michálek had 8 points in his draft year.

It's all about projection. Different development curves, a different kind of game in NA.
Hertl was a PPG player earlier in the year, his production was dropping as the season progressed. Slavia Prague are a weak team atm, they didn't get relegated though.

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Old
04-19-2012, 12:59 PM
  #80
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Couple of minutes ago, Hertl was announced as the winner of Extraliga Rookie of the year award. It's voted by TV hockey journalists.

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Old
04-20-2012, 06:39 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
I'm sure that's all relevant here, and I think the guys at hockey prospectus spit out a formula that attempts to account for all that. But either way, when Hertl is the #1 guy in the draft based on point equivalencies its impressive..
League Equivalencies are typically much simpler than that. You're giving the stats way too much credit. Heck, you can only get the type of data you guys are asking for in the NHL going back to 1997-98. So as you can imagine, it is fairly non-existent in other leagues. If it is factored in at all, it's done manually after the fact.

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04-20-2012, 06:51 AM
  #82
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The reason that Hertl isn't near the top of everyone's draft boards, you have to see how his game translates to North America. Why take a risk on a guy when you can get a guy proven in NA. With that said, he will ultimately be underrated for this reason, and will fall below the top couple of forwards, at which point he will be a bargain. I think you could make a fair case that he's a top 5 forward in this draft.

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Old
04-20-2012, 10:15 AM
  #83
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How does Hertl compare to say Patrick Berglund of the Blues?

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04-23-2012, 11:45 AM
  #84
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If he falls to the 33rd pick, I'm gonna do cartwheels.

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Old
04-23-2012, 12:46 PM
  #85
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How does Hertl compare to say Patrick Berglund of the Blues?
Berglund's a better skater.

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Old
04-24-2012, 12:27 AM
  #86
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Berglund's a better skater.
What about at draft time? As a Blues fan, I feel Berglund's skating has come along nicely since he was drafted.

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05-19-2012, 01:35 AM
  #87
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C Tomas Hertl - HC Slavia Praha, Czech Extraliga

Can anyone provide some in depth commentary on this kid? He's described as a playmaking forward in The Hockey News draft preview, with ice awareness and the ability to make plays being his best attributes.

He's not a top ranked prospect, he's in the 20-30 range, but nevertheless is he capable of being a #1 centre type? What's his ceiling?

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Old
05-19-2012, 02:16 AM
  #88
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http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...856&highlight=

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05-19-2012, 10:05 AM
  #89
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Thanks. Should have known there was already a thread on him. Mods can lock this if they wish.

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Old
06-06-2012, 03:48 PM
  #90
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Detailed profile of Hertl complete with exclusive quotes from:

Jiri Fischer
Aaron Vickers, FC
Ross MacLean, ISS

The Next Ones profile of Hertl
http://thehockeywriters.com/tomas-he...spect-profile/

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06-07-2012, 12:00 AM
  #91
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This looks like a guy the panthers might have on their radar and is slotted to go around 23rd.

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06-22-2012, 09:38 PM
  #92
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Big dude to play down the middle for SJS, perhaps to eventually replace Big Joe one day.

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06-23-2012, 01:27 AM
  #93
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I'm happy with this pick. Hopefully he'll develop into a solid top six center for us as Thornton begins to decline.

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Old
07-09-2012, 02:45 PM
  #94
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I've watched Hertl a lot this season, and as said above, if he has one flaw in his game it is his skating. I think that would hold him back from being a number one centre on a side, but he certainly has enough about him to be able to take a number two spot on a side. However, he is able to contribute on the backend, so could drop to the third if needs be.

He's the sort of player that racks up the points quietly. Perhaps doesn't have "elite" level scoring touch, but he can certainly put the puck away/set people up.

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11-25-2012, 04:17 PM
  #95
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Great start to the season for Tomas Hertl, with 10+8 in 23 games. Last season he had 12+13 in 38 games, so he is well ahead of that pace. Can't wait to see how he does at the WJC, as he was awesome last year.

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11-25-2012, 06:31 PM
  #96
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How is his skating?

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11-25-2012, 07:09 PM
  #97
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How is his skating?
His top speed is average, it's his acceleration that stands out as distinctly below average. The Sharks org, however, has a history of turning below average skaters into average skaters, so we'll see.

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12-20-2012, 08:32 PM
  #98
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His top speed is average, it's his acceleration that stands out as distinctly below average. The Sharks org, however, has a history of turning below average skaters into average skaters, so we'll see.
I have watched him in several matches this season. Exactly as you wrote, his acceleration is what holds him back from being among the top prospects (for now). I mean he improved a little bit this autumn, but still, he shall work on that. For Czech elite league it is not a big problem, as the game is more about witty passing than aggressive skating here, but in the NHL it would be Hertl's crucial problem.


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Old
01-30-2013, 07:02 AM
  #99
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He scored 2 goals last game against Liberec. Recentlly 35GP, 15G + 10A = 25 points
Hertl is in national team nomination for 3rd stage of EHT in Sweden.

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03-20-2013, 04:42 PM
  #100
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Any updates on Hertl? I'm sorry if this kind of bump isn't allowed. I have no way of knowing how he's doing

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