Certain similarities in where this organization is at remind me of the Gauthier/Martin takeover point in early 1997 (96-97 season). So I'm going to try to identify the key moves and talent build up that started to turn that team into a contender starting just a few seasons after, picking 2003 as a matured endpoint for that team becoming a serious contender. (Draft analysis focuses mostly on 1st rounders)
1996-97 Season:
All of the teams last 5 1st rounders are still in the organization:
92 Yashin (22), 93 Daigle (21), 94 Bonk (20), 95 *Redden (19y), 96 Phillips (18)
Alfie was 23/34 yo.
Of players playing in 1996-97, only (4) Alfie, Redden, Bonk and Van Allen are going to play on the 2003 President's trophy winning team that almost made the SCF's... and Van Allen left, then came back. Those who became or returned significant assets will continue to be discussed.
1997 Draft, we're about to draft a significant forward for our future: Marian Hossa
2011 Draft, we better be about to draft a significant forward for our future: TBA.
1997-98 Season:
Redden (20) starting 2nd season, Phillips is a rookie.
Rundblad (20/21) and Cowen (20) will both be rookies.
Yashin (23), Alfie (24), Bonk (21),
Other significant players: McEachern (28), Arvedson (25), Kravchuk (30), Laukanen (27), York (27), Rhodes (28), Tugnutt (29)
Other significant players: Arvedson (30), Schaefer (25), Fisher (22), Smolinski (30), Leschyshyn (32), Varada (26), Van Allen (35), Neil (23)
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Becoming a legit contender took 6 seasons from the moment Hossa was drafted. This seems an awfully long time... Why?
1) The Yashin-Chara deal likely set us back.
Though not always lauded for his postseason play, Yashin was 7-3-4-7 in the first round for the NYI and coming off of Hart nominee seasons... while Chara was a bit of a project that season. Ottawa lost in Game 7 of the 2nd round against Toronto, nearly making the 3rd round vs. the Cinderella Carolina Hurricanes. While the long term ramifications would have been terrible, for at least this one season; we were set back by this trade. Not to mention his holdout in 1999-00 in between our first two 100 point seasons.
2) Lack of Experience.
Look at those teams above... in an effort to stay budget conscious, those teams were comprised mostly of youngsters or late emerging Euros and minor leaguers. 90% of the team didn't know much about the playoffs and quite of few of them had trouble facing it for the first few times. An established, less budget conscious team could offer better support for it's young players.
For example, going into the 2003 playoffs; Alfie and Bonk were our elder statesmen:
Alfie (29) - 44 playoff games, 2nd round twice.
Bonk (26) - 36 playoff games, 2nd round twice.
Spezza may or may not ever become the leader that Alfie is, but he definitely has a lot to more advice to share at the same age that could be beneficial to youngsters coming in.
3) Lack of size and toughness.
Many of the players we had back then were a lot smaller than they are now (Alfie, Hossa, Havlat, White, McEachern, Redden, Rachunek, York) and the team was disproportionately loaded with finessse style players. Our toughness was almost entirely contained in the bottom pairing and 4th line... which isn't effective toughness.
4) Goaltending.
Though it wasn't able to cost us as much as it did when the team was good enough to win...
1999 playoffs = 0.887
2000 playoffs = 0.905
2001 playoffs = 0.899
That's two of our 100 point seasons being tanked partly because of goaltending.
All 6 100 point seasons looks like this:
1999 playoffs = 0.887
2001 playoffs = 0.899
2003 playoffs = 0.924 ... 3rd round exit.
2004 playoffs = 0.906
2006 playoffs = 0.900 ... 2nd round exit.
2007 playoffs = 0.907 ... SCF exit. Emery's SV% dropped from 0.917 to 0.907 in last game v. Anh.
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Basically, 6 years should probably be seen as a maximum. The only way it should even take that long is if we start screwing up picks and they fail to live up to expectations.
*wasn't sure who to compare Karlsson to, but Yashin was a pre-1997 asset so I used Chara. EK produces like Chara, but obviously not a good comparable. I suppose that would leave a #4 with the offense of Rachunek and the defense of a Chara or Phillips (depending on how Cowen turns out).
I suppose this was just an exercise to guage where we might be in terms of a build up we've gone through before.
A comparable scenario might be if could miraculously draft both "Hossa" and "Havlat" as key offensive contributors this summer (we expect 1 of them). Then we'd be lookind at approximately 4 seasons before those two and the D-men hit the same age and stage of development as Hossa, Havlat, Redden, Phillips, Chara. Though time could be added for busts or lost assets... or shaved off if we aren't thrifty, small, soft, completely inexperienced, devoid of goaltending or counting on ****ers.
Great read. If our two first round picks turn into legitimate top 6 forwards in this year draft we can be back into contention within 3-4 years. That is probably the quickest time frame for the rebuilt. I wouldn't be surprised if we made the playoffs in that time, but no way we will go deep.
"1996-97 Season:
All of the teams last 5 1st rounders are still in the organization:
92 Yashin (22), 93 Daigle (21), 94 Bonk (20), 95 *Redden (19y), 96 Phillips (18)
Alfie was 23 yo."
we have nothing anywhere NEAR the quality of those 5 1st rounders in our lineup or in our organization, and we don't have a 23 year old alfie lying around either.
"1996-97 Season:
All of the teams last 5 1st rounders are still in the organization:
92 Yashin (22), 93 Daigle (21), 94 Bonk (20), 95 *Redden (19y), 96 Phillips (18)
Alfie was 23 yo."
we have nothing anywhere NEAR the quality of those 5 1st rounders in our lineup or in our organization, and we don't have a 23 year old alfie lying around either.
You don't think we can draft better players than Bonk, Daigle, and Phillips? Our first this year will be similar to Yashin and we have Rundblad coming in as an answer to Redden.
You don't think we can draft better players than Bonk, Daigle, and Phillips? Our first this year will be similar to Yashin and we have Rundblad coming in as an answer to Redden.
We could but as of right now, we don't have them in the system which was the point he was trying to make.
We could but as of right now, we don't have them in the system which was the point he was trying to make.
I would say Daigle and Phillips are covered by Cowen and one of our forward prospects, maybe even Butler. Redden is covered by Rundblad and Bonk, surely a good player isn't someone who is that hard to find. Even Regin might be able to cover for him.
"1996-97 Season:
All of the teams last 5 1st rounders are still in the organization:
92 Yashin (22), 93 Daigle (21), 94 Bonk (20), 95 *Redden (19y), 96 Phillips (18)
Alfie was 23 yo."
we have nothing anywhere NEAR the quality of those 5 1st rounders in our lineup or in our organization, and we don't have a 23 year old alfie lying around either.
we have nothing anywhere NEAR the quality of those 5 1st rounders in our lineup or in our organization, and we don't have a 23 year old alfie lying around either.
sure we do, his name is Jakob Silfverberg and he is 20.
I would say Daigle and Phillips are covered by Cowen and one of our forward prospects, maybe even Butler. Redden is covered by Rundblad and Bonk, surely a good player isn't someone who is that hard to find. Even Regin might be able to cover for him.
Alfie - Spezza
Bonk - Michalek
Redden - Rundblad
Phillips - Cowen
*Chara - Karlsson (yes, I know. Worst comparable. Offense is there and that's it)
If anything, I'd expect Regin to be something along the lines of White as secondary scoring depth. Perhaps in the 2nd line LW/back-up scoring C role I always expected that Vermette would assume.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Synthetek
sure we do, his name is Jakob Silfverberg and he is 20.
Uh, not something I'd want to project or count on moving forward.
Let's be extremely happy with a 50 point two-way player, if he even gets there.
Alfie - Spezza
Bonk - Michalek
Redden - Rundblad
Phillips - Cowen
*Chara - Karlsson (yes, I know. Worst comparable. Offense is there and that's it)
If anything, I'd expect Regin to be something along the lines of White as secondary scoring depth. Perhaps in the 2nd line LW/back-up scoring C role I always expected that Vermette would assume.
Yeahh Michalek is a better comparison, I was overly fixated on finding a C to compare to Bonk.
