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What Progress have the Jackets Made if Any this Year?

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Old
03-15-2011, 10:00 AM
  #1
TaketheCannoli
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What Progress have the Jackets Made if Any this Year?

This subject comes up in many threads, usually threads that are inappropriate and it cause the thread to get hi-jacked. What progress have the Jackets made if any this season?

I thought this post of Pete's is a good start:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pete goegan View Post
As I said, I do see improvement, though not nearly enough. For instance, the goalies are not the sole problem, but they still are not good enough and need upgrading. Overall, there still remains a major gap in the level of skill on the Jackets when compared to the better teams in the league. I think it has improved and there is potential in the pipeline, but we still have not fully recovered from the (Mac)Lean years! Upgrades to the defense remain most pressing, but Mason and Garon can't be totally absolved of blame, either.

The biggest change I've seen, this season, is the development in the ability and resolve to come back from a one or two goal deficit. Even early in this season, falling behind meant losing big. As the season went on, we saw the team begin to come back and make a game of it. The thrashings stopped, though not enough comebacks resulted in wins. This, along with the progress of some of the younger guys, gives me some hope for next season. If, of course, the Scotties can bring in more talent! In that, I completely agree with you.
That is a huge difference right there. I assume the credit goes to the entire coaching staff.

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03-15-2011, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by leek View Post
I assume the credit goes to the entire coaching staff.
I agree with you, leek, most of the credit for that must go to Arniel and his new staff. I would say, too, that the addition of energetic guys like Calvert, Clitsome, and, more recently, Upshall has improved the ability to put goals on the board and not lose heart when down a goal or two. Could another factor also be further maturation of the leadership, specifically Nash and Umberger? That's really hard to judge from the outside, though.

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03-15-2011, 10:52 AM
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One thing I'm optimistic about: With a first-year coach and basically the same roster we had last season, this team is over .500.

Raise your hand if you had a bad feeling coming into the season that this team would finish with less than 30 wins as a part of "rebuilding" and "transition".

This team has had a couple hot stretches (14-6-0, 14-3-3), with the killer being they've had two crappy stretches to wash them out (6-14-5 or whatever, then 1-4-3). They need to find a way to be more consistent on the good side of things.

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03-15-2011, 10:55 AM
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We come back from more one and two goal leads? Sure. We also give up a lot of two goals leads.

I'm kind of confused how we can claim progress here or credit anyone.

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03-15-2011, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
We come back from more one and two goal leads? Sure. We also give up a lot of two goals leads.

I'm kind of confused how we can claim progress here or credit anyone.
So then I am to assume you would expect every game to be a shutout? In the past, if we were down 2 goals you may as well throw on your coat and head out the door. Nowadays I see more people staying to the end of the game because they know we'll try and fight back.

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03-15-2011, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by PirateJack View Post
So then I am to assume you would expect every game to be a shutout?
Fail. Pure silliness. Nothing I said should have drawn you to that conclusion.

Quote:
In the past, if we were down 2 goals you may as well throw on your coat and head out the door. Nowadays I see more people staying to the end of the game because they know we'll try and fight back.
Yeah, I know I'm thrilled watching two goal leads disappear at an alarming rate. Two steps forward... Two steps back...


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03-15-2011, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
We come back from more one and two goal leads? Sure. We also give up a lot of two goals leads.

I'm kind of confused how we can claim progress here or credit anyone.
You have a point. does this speak to resilience, over-confidence or lack of blue line?

Could it be inadherence to the system?

I have seen the team slip into a 1-4 delay defense at times. I'm not sure if Berry or Arniel is calling it or if the players are trying to burn the clock down. Whatever it is, they seem to struggle when they become passive.

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03-15-2011, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by leek View Post
You have a point. does this speak to resilience, over-confidence or lack of blue line?

Could it be inadherence to the system?
Could be issues with the system itself as well. However, I'm not sure the problem is sitting back, protecting a lead. We've seen some of them disappear in the first or second period.

We have some major defensive zone lapses and then there is the occasional bad goal from the goal tender.

We're middle of the pack when leading after two. #10 when leading after one. Both acceptable, if one is unspectacular. But we are 21st when scoring first and middle of the pack when trailing after one.

Really, we can't claim much progress other then moral victories (never giving up). That's expansion team mentality. We can't win consistently enough with an average 5 on 5 team with below average special team play. The numbers just don't work.

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03-15-2011, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
Could be issues with the system itself as well. However, I'm not sure the problem is sitting back, protecting a lead. We've seen some of them disappear in the first or second period.

We have some major defensive zone lapses and then there is the occasional bad goal from the goal tender.

We're middle of the pack when leading after two. #10 when leading after one. Both acceptable, if one is unspectacular. But we are 21st when scoring first and middle of the pack when trailing after one.

Really, we can't claim much progress other then moral victories (never giving up). That's expansion team mentality. We can't win consistently enough with an average 5 on 5 team with below average special team play. The numbers just don't work.
So is your position that the team has made zero progress this season?

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03-15-2011, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by leek View Post
So is your position that the team has made zero progress this season?
Actually, that's not what I said. I am not sure where you got that from the post you quoted, but I'll give you a breakdown.

Even strength is a little better. PP is worse. PK is a little worse. We've increased our SOG's by 2 and reduced the SA by 1. We scoring .1 more goals per game and giving up .08 goals less.

We are winning a little more often scoring first. We are winning more often when trailing. We are holding on to leads better.

If you look at our stats, they resemble what we had two years ago other then our 5-on-5 is worse (a lot), our PP is better, and our PK is a little worse. We out-shot opponents at a much wider margin in 2008/9. While not really increasing our goal scoring from two years ago, we are giving up goals at a much higher pace.

What is this telling me? We had better puck possession in 2008/9. For all the changes in the offensive system, it hasn't translated into an improvement from our "defensive" system in 2008/9.

We've made some progress from last year, but we still fighting to get to the level of play we had two years ago. For all the claims that we're coming back and not giving up, it hasn't shown up in the stat sheets. However we are holding leads at a pace similar to 2008/9.

So, it really boils down to what you mean by progress. Taking two steps after falling back two steps, I don't find to be progress.

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03-15-2011, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
Actually, that's not what I said. I am not sure where you got that from the post you quoted, but I'll give you a breakdown.

Even strength is a little better. PP is worse. PK is a little worse. We've increased our SOG's by 2 and reduced the SA by 1. We scoring .1 more goals per game and giving up .08 goals less.

We are winning a little more often scoring first. We are winning more often when trailing. We are holding on to leads better.

If you look at our stats, they resemble what we had two years ago other then our 5-on-5 is worse (a lot), our PP is better, and our PK is a little worse. We out-shot opponents at a much wider margin in 2008/9. While not really increasing our goal scoring from two years ago, we are giving up goals at a much higher pace.

What is this telling me? We had better puck possession in 2008/9. For all the changes in the offensive system, it hasn't translated into an improvement from our "defensive" system in 2008/9.

We've made some progress from last year, but we still fighting to get to the level of play we had two years ago. For all the claims that we're coming back and not giving up, it hasn't shown up in the stat sheets. However we are holding leads at a pace similar to 2008/9.

So, it really boils down to what you mean by progress. Taking two steps after falling back two steps, I don't find to be progress.
I understand from the first part I bolded you are saying there is some progress, then from the end of your post, the portion I bolded seems to say to me that no progress has been made.

I'm probably as disappointed as anyone in the team, so I can accept either opinion, just trying to understand your position on this.

I do believe there is some forward progress, but not enough. As Pete pointed out, the team has stopped quitting. Even in 08-09, I thought they quit when down by two goals, with one notable exception that I recall, a comeback from 2 down in the 3rd period against the Avalanche. I believe the team has a few more skilled players than in years past, notably Calvert, Clitsome, Brassard and arguably Voracek's development this season. Unfortunately, talent has been added more slowly than seems necessary to stay ahead of the teams in front of the Jackets in the standings and probably not quickly enough to stay ahead of the Oilers. Only the Blues rival the Jackets in this slow growth in the West.

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03-15-2011, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
Even strength is a little better. PP is worse. PK is a little worse. We've increased our SOG's by 2 and reduced the SA by 1. We scoring .1 more goals per game and giving up .08 goals less.

We are winning a little more often scoring first. We are winning more often when trailing. We are holding on to leads better.

If you look at our stats, they resemble what we had two years ago other then our 5-on-5 is worse (a lot), our PP is better, and our PK is a little worse. We out-shot opponents at a much wider margin in 2008/9. While not really increasing our goal scoring from two years ago, we are giving up goals at a much higher pace.

What is this telling me? We had better puck possession in 2008/9. For all the changes in the offensive system, it hasn't translated into an improvement from our "defensive" system in 2008/9.

We've made some progress from last year, but we still fighting to get to the level of play we had two years ago. For all the claims that we're coming back and not giving up, it hasn't shown up in the stat sheets. However we are holding leads at a pace similar to 2008/9.So, it really boils down to what you mean by progress. Taking two steps after falling back two steps, I don't find to be progress.
Tasty food for thought. I might call it two forward and a stumble and a half back, but that's just quibbling. Whether I fully agree or not, that's an interesting analysis.


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03-15-2011, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by leek View Post
I understand from the first part I bolded you are saying there is some progress, then from the end of your post, the portion I bolded seems to say to me that no progress has been made.

I'm probably as disappointed as anyone in the team, so I can accept either opinion, just trying to understand your position on this.
We've only progressed to 90% of 08/09. I'm looking over the body of work. With that view we're back to square one.

If you're just looking this year from last, yes there have been improvements made. Much like there was progress from 07/08 to 08/09.

What funny is we're right back to where we were in a few ways. This feels a lot like how I felt going into the 08/09 off season.

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03-15-2011, 02:23 PM
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Goaltending has gotten worse imo, progressively over the last 2 seasons. Until this problem is properly addressed, it will be difficult to gauge the impact of the new system.

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03-15-2011, 02:30 PM
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Goaltending has gotten worse imo, progressively over the last 2 seasons. Until this problem is properly addressed, it will be difficult to gauge the impact of the new system.
The impact of the new, offensive system is putting more of a strain on the goaltenders.

We knew that going in.

I'd say our defense has gotten worse over the last 2 years and we won't be able to properly gauge the effectiveness of the system/our players until we get a leader on the backend who is capable of QB'ing a powerplay.

Just like we can't accurately gauge Nash's abilities until he gets a respectable top line center to work with, we can't gauge Mason's abilities until he gets a respectable top defensive pairing to work with. The longer both positions go unfilled, the longer this franchise just treads water.

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03-15-2011, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by pete goegan View Post
Tasty food for thought. I might call it two forward and a stumble and a half back, but that's just quibbling. Whether I fully agree or not, that's an interesting analysis.
Glad I could contribute. In all honesty, I still maintain we can win enough to compete for that 8th spot with a competent coach, no matter the system.

We throw around old school NHL, yet look at the run NJ has made. They may run out of gas before the end of the year but you can certainly win with JL style of play in the post lock-out era.

We just need to make the necessary moves to the roster. Now that we're committed to this style, the Klesla move seems to be a good one. Once healthy Klesla should feel comfortable with their style of play.

We changed directions, now Howson needs to fill in the needed pieces. If not we're going to continue to struggle. Our system really exposes players now and we don't have the bullets that the elite teams do.

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03-15-2011, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
I'd say our defense has gotten worse over the last 2 years and we won't be able to properly gauge the effectiveness of the system/our players until we get a leader on the backend who is capable of QB'ing a powerplay.
I think a look at the Goals Against numbers argue for more help on the backend than just a PP QB (though that's certainly necessary).

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We changed directions, now Howson needs to fill in the needed pieces.
And isn't that the elephant in the room: can he or will he make the necessary moves to complete the roster?

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03-15-2011, 02:48 PM
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And isn't that the elephant in the room: can he or will he make the necessary moves to complete the roster?
All I can say is that his moves are hit and miss when dealing with a short negotiation window. We the biggest move he has made (trade or FA) was Vermette and he pursued that one for a long time. Juice, Tyutin, and Commie was his big splash and I'm not sure if the positives exceeded the negatives in that group.

Whatever we end up getting will likely be very modest.

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03-15-2011, 05:35 PM
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Add: the emergence of Nash as a leader. This was a major question last October.

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03-15-2011, 08:10 PM
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Getting such good play from Calvert and Clitsome gets my hopes up for what Johan, Moore, and Savard will be able to do.

And man is Upshall looking good out there..

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03-15-2011, 08:13 PM
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I think the biggest difference heading into 2011-12 can be if Brass and Jake can be 25+ goal scorers or 60-70 point guys. They've got enough experience and showed flashes, but they need to elevate their games to the next level.

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03-15-2011, 08:21 PM
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Fail. Pure silliness. Nothing I said should have drawn you to that conclusion.
I'm all about pure silliness, that's how I stay a fan

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03-15-2011, 11:32 PM
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We've only progressed to 90% of 08/09. I'm looking over the body of work. With that view we're back to square one.

I absolutely do not agree with this statement based on one fact: the rosters. I agree that we're at a similar performance level but take into account the names that were contributors on the 08/09 list that are no longer around:

Jason Chimera [Age: 29 in 08/09]
Raffi Torres [Age: 27]
Manny Malholtra [Age: 28]
Michael Peca [Age: 34]
Frederick Modin [Age: 34]
Jason Williams [Age: 28]

Whether you agree with letting those players go or not, it is practically indisputable that even if we are getting the same results as we did in 08/09 we are doing so with a much younger roster that has more room to grow.

Do you think Modin was all of a sudden double his output to 20 Goals a season? Or that Michael Peca would end up with much more than ~25 points a season? We had guys that were playing major roles for our team that were CLEARLY at the end of their careers. There was very little chance that these players were going to get much better. As they got older it was actually much more likely that their production would tail off.

Granted we do have some old dudes on our roster now [Moreau, Clark, and Rivet] but they are neither holding down major roles on the team nor is any one of them signed beyond this season. That means, assuming we let those three walk away, that other than Garon, Pahlsson and Hejda, everyone on this team will be 30 years old or younger with most of our contributing players still awaiting or just reaching their prime playing years. [Keep in mind that both Garon and Hejda are free agents at the end of this year so they could perhaps be gone as well.]

In addition, with all that money coming off the books at the end of this season and the ripening of our young guys, if we can get some solid contributions through free agency or trades we will be in a very good position for the next few years. That all depends on Howson though, which is a topic for another thread. Imagine if we can get a solid #1 defender and/or another legitimate top line player. That would have a huge ripple effect. No longer [or at least less often] would we be forced to play our guys over their abilities [a #3-4 Defenseman being asked to play as a top pairing. A 2nd or third line Center or winger being asked to produce like a true #1].

The results may be the same but the means with which they are achieved gives context to the entire comparison. Barely squeaking into [or missing] the playoffs with a roster of young guys is more acceptable than it is with a roster loaded with veterans because the young guys still have potential and room to grow.

Just my 2 cents. Am I happy with the outcome of this season? Not at all, but I recognize that this team has a great chance to become much better much faster than the team that was swept in the playoffs.

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03-16-2011, 07:45 AM
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I absolutely do not agree with this statement based on one fact: the rosters. I agree that we're at a similar performance level but take into account the names that were contributors on the 08/09 list that are no longer around:

Jason Chimera [Age: 29 in 08/09]
Raffi Torres [Age: 27]
Manny Malholtra [Age: 28]
Michael Peca [Age: 34]
Frederick Modin [Age: 34]
Jason Williams [Age: 28]
An interesting argument. Sort of. Performance wise, we are right back where we were two years ago. If you are saying younger players are more developed. Yes. Still doesn't address the holes we have in the lineup. The only player that has a remote chance of filling one of those holes, on our roster, is Brass.

What's interesting is that not one player you addressed above is one defense. Which is the area, outside of #1 center, I beat on two years ago. It's also the position where numerous upgrades have changed hands over the last two years.

Was it a desire to develop DM instead if Manny? No. We didn't replace the secondary scoring in JW or Torres.

You talked about Modin, but what does that have to do with anything? Would I rather have Boll then Chimera? Probably. Moreau? Clark?

So what you are saying is that we replaced some getting old dudes with older dudes while not addressing secondary scoring in any meaningful way? Yes. We haven't addressed the defense in any meaningful way? Yes. Is this team any closer to competing for the number 4 or 5 spot in the West then we were two years ago? No. Is our top line more dangerous then at any point in our history? Debatable. Nash/Vermette/Juice had better production last year.

Nash is trending back to his goal total from last year, despite being "rested" and "fresh". Jake is producing about the same despite the additional responsibility. Brassard isn't producing anywhere near that rookie year. If it wasn't for Calvert and Clitsome, it is quite likely our record would look more like last year at this point. Thank goodness for those two players. To be fair, Jake and Brass are feeling their way around while player against the other teams top players. So even a push, at this point, is a positive. I will be very curious to see how they finish out the year.

I look up and down our roster and I see all the minus players, including the new guy Upshall. I hope it's all lessons being learned and not ceiling issues with the players. Although I can look at the roster and see players that are playing in roles they don't belong in.

Do I feel some comfort that Calvert is probably going to replace Juice? Yes. Do I feel comfortable that Tyutin and Clitsome are getting the top minutes on defense? No. Do I like that Johansen is going to to push some players next year and the years following? Yes. Does that mean it's going to work out? No. We could still be facing issues up the middle 2 and 3 years from now. Hopefully not.

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03-16-2011, 05:25 PM
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Well the team has gotten better. This team already has as many wins as we had all of last year.

Our weakest points continue to be inconsistent goaltending. Mason can be really good to start the year, then starts letting in the stupidest goals, and can't recover until the season's basically almost over.

Our 3rd line hasn't really produced at all. Umberger had to move up to the 2nd line thanks to Huselius being injured nearly all year, leaving a 3rd line with Dorsett, Moreau, Pahlsson, and Clark most of the year. Moreau has don't basically nothing, and Clark was good early in the year but since the first like 20 games he's been invisible.

Our 4th line has actually been pretty good this year.

I think this team will continue to get better next season because they seem to be progressing. The top line continues to get better and next year we should have more scoring depth once Clark and Moreau are off the books.

The biggest problem for next years team will be what to do about the inconsistent goaltending and if we can get someone with a bit more of a veteran and #1D feel on the blue line. The only other questions about next years forwards is what to do about the young players like Filatov, Calvert, and Johansen.

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