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The Cap Forces the Kings to Trade Away Salary Next Year

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Old
03-01-2011, 11:05 PM
  #51
johnjm22
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Gary Bettman: NHL revenue on upswing
Quote:
"In a very difficult economic environment, we continue to hold our own," Bettman told the San Jose Mercury News on Sunday night. "The projections are that revenue will be up 4 or 5 percent."
If that holds true, then I assume that CAP goes up by a corresponding amount.

4.5% of 59.4M = 2.67M

11-12 NHL CAP estimate: 59.4M + 2.67M = 62.07M

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Old
03-02-2011, 12:55 AM
  #52
Monarchist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeadInjury View Post
Martinez, Richardson and Lewis won't be getting significant raises.

Simmonds isn't a $3 million player. People were saying similar things about Johnson's and Quick's first RFA contracts and they signed for way less.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DAkings20 View Post
Williams is getting 3.6M on his new deal, Simmonds should get no more than half that at the max.

I would say anywhere from 1.3M-1.6M is about right.
OK, I rethought the Simmonds issue and while I still am not confident on any specific number or term, particularly if he gets an offer sheet, $3 million is the high side but very possible if the contract eats UFA years (which we don't have to do). It depends on the offer sheet situation (Hjalmarsson got $3.5 million/year) and how he does going forward. Franzen, Briere, Claude Lemieux, some players are paid for what they can do in the playoffs. Some people have Simmonds slotted in as first line RW on the other thread, though we all know Murray sets his lines with a slot machine on a good day and a rubix cube on a bad one, so no one will get full time there, but look what happened to Cheechoo after he was made better by players around him: a $3 million/year contract.

I was wrong to say $3 million is guaranteed and it's more of a ceiling and something I think is close to the target, especially compared to $1.3-$1.6 million.

As far as the supporting cast I believe the CBA mandates raises in a qualifying offer, and a lot of guys are making between the minimum and $1 million, so even if they haven't earned raises they get them.

Also, it's a bit worrying that the 4th line might have no experience at all. It would be nice to have Zus reduced to 4th line minutes so he would never be too tired to skate at his full speed (Lord spare us), winning faceoffs, shutting down skilled guys and embarrassing them by cycling it in their zone.

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Originally Posted by ukyo View Post
I keep hearing this argument (not just with Smyth, but for other players with cap hits higher than their salaries), and while it technically makes sense, I cannot think of a time when it would be practical. Has a team ever traded for such a player just to reach the cap floor? I really think that for as long as the Kings are buyers rather than sellers, we are stuck with Smyth.
It's not just to reach the floor. The cost of having a player is $ and cap space. Rich teams can pay more $ and breach the spirit of the cap as long as they find takers for the low $, high cap years. There were articles about this during the Giguere trade.

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Originally Posted by wicker View Post
I feel that Smyth is moveable because he is simply going to be in the last year of his contract, if it comes to that.

Also, in regards to Schenn making the team next season... I think he does. He will be more physically ready for the long haul than Lokti, and if his previous preseasons are anything to go by, he's going to bust his ass to make it. He was one of the last guys to get cut his first year, made it this year but had to be sent down because there was no room, and with Zus gone, he'll make it next season.
Smyth has a NMC, I think. Agree on Schenn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
11-12 NHL CAP estimate: 59.4M + 2.67M = 62.07M
I agree with not panicking, the Kings are *very* far from the worst hit if the cap doesn't go up. It might even be best if some of the other teams get screwed by that, with much less pain suffered here in comparison. Worst case scenario, guys get injured and we move into the wonderful world of icing 10 man rosters for a while or whatever the Devils and Flames have done the last few years.

Money not used gets banked, so a team that is $2 million under the cap adding a player 2/3 through the season can take on a $6 million salary. Just a thought for rentals, though having a solid team gel in a year of dominance (or decade+, like the Wings) is good too.

Having cap space also lets you get benefits from other capped stressed teams - see empty arenas in Winnipeg, Quebec, and Hamilton for evidence of that. (I would say see the full rink in Atlanta, but...well...)

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:29 AM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
These are the minimum qualifying offers for our current roster RFAs.

Richardson $945,000
Martinez $918,750
Simmonds $862,749
Lewis $843,413

And, more than likely, this is what DL will give them:

Richardson $970,000 (x2)
Martinez $950,000 (x3)
Simmonds $1,295,000 (x4)
Lewis $900,000 (x2)


Anyway, that's what I would do if I were DL.

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:42 AM
  #54
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The younger guys like Simmonds, Lewis, Martinez, etc really need to step it up if they want big raises.

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:51 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Monarchist View Post
How much will Doughty cost to resign? Obviously it depends on the term. Brent Seabrook, who like Doughty was not eligible for arbitration, got $5.8 million/year for a five year contract, which takes up one of his UFA years.
Brent Seabrook is a 25 year old who has played 6 years in the league and was most certainly eligible for arbitration. His contract also bought 4 UFA years not one. Those contracts aren't comparable.

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:48 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by KingsFan7824 View Post
I don't think you have to worry about big ticket free agents, because those guys don't sign with the Kings or any team ,the further west you go. .
How much further? The Farralones? Hawaii? Guam?

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Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Sadly, no English though.

The bonus cushion disappearing will be an issue for sure. That said, we've seen other organizations work magic with the cap that were seemingly "doomed". I'm not worried given Lombardi's obsessiveness with... everything.
I concur.

And while the OP is very well thought out, it seems a tad reactionary. I actually laughed when I saw the thread title. I thought, Great, we finally make a BIG MOVE to get a talented player, and someone is now (overly) concerned that we have cap problems. I think I now have a slight bit of insight into those that claim DL just can't win, no matter what he does.

I, for one am not concerned about the player named CAPSPACE. I am sure there are a lot of other teams that will pick him up. Thats the thing about him, he isnt that valuable unless we actually use him.

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Old
03-02-2011, 10:58 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
I, for one am not concerned about the player named CAPSPACE. I am sure there are a lot of other teams that will pick him up. Thats the thing about him, he isnt that valuable unless we actually use him.
What I find to be curious is that, going into the playoffs, it looks like we'll have CAPSPACE on our roster. He'll be wearing # $4.17 million.

Was this intentional? Or was DL anticipating a recall of Schenn specifically for the playoffs?

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:15 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
I actually laughed when I saw the thread title. I thought, Great, we finally make a BIG MOVE to get a talented player, and someone is now (overly) concerned that we have cap problems.
I love the Penner move, I was concerned when Mitchell was signed for two years instead of one.

There is something big I forgot, though: Schenn's bonus is assumed reachable only as long as it is reachable. On day one of the season, Schenn looks like a $3.14 million cap hit and the Kings can't go above the cap since Schenn might earn that. However, once the conditions become unreachable, all the cap space is gotten back, retroactively he counts for no more than he actually makes.

So if a condition is to average one goal per 60 minutes over the first 20 games, the Kings could get space back then. If a condition is to have a certain CORSI rating through 40 games, the Kings could get it back then - and if they don't, that means Schenn is destroying everyone anyway.

Unless I'm wrong about how that works.

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:32 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
These are the minimum qualifying offers for our current roster RFAs.

Richardson $945,000
Martinez $918,750
Simmonds $862,749
Lewis $843,413
It's actually less than that for Simmonds and Martinez since the qualifying offer is based on a player's Paragraph 1 NHL salary, not his cap hit (the cap hit includes performance bonuses whereas the Paragraph 1 NHL salary does not).

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Old
03-03-2011, 04:02 PM
  #60
Andrew Knoll
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I did a quick numbers crunch on this for an article about a month and a half ago, I really do not think they will have any difficulty signing Doughty or Simmonds.

To assume a $6.5M cap hit seems heavy, look at the deals Deano has gotten done recently, he'll find a way to keep the number low whether it's a super-long deal or a cross-that-bridge-when-we-come-to-it arrangement where he gets his RFA eligible years paid and a small number of UFA years covered if any.

I think you're looking at $6-7M in raises for Doughty and Simmonds.

Schenn at $3.14, hmmm, how are you calculating the bonus without him reaching any incentives yet? Foreseeable bonuses? I've heard varying numbers on what he would have cost them had he played this season, it should carry over into next year since either way it's year one of his ELC. Further, I wouldn't worry about the bonus cushion, if it comes out of the next CBA that will not apply retroactively, the 2012-2013 season would be the first year without any cushion even if it's removed in 2011-2012.

Loktionov, if he recovers well, will probably be a roster player next year and he'll be on an ELC, too as well.

I think the Kings can sign Doughty and Simmonds without any problem, basically return this team minus Handzus (unless he takes a big pay cut). They can't go out and dabble for any big names but they did just add a significant player, that is pretty much their FA acquisition since he's under contract for next year and still in his 20s.

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Old
03-03-2011, 04:20 PM
  #61
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I just remembered something that makes me worry much less about Simmonds as an RFA. I had been thinking he could just refuse to sign and see what the most insane offer sheet thrown at him was: remember, for $3 million/year a team would only have to give up a second round draft pick! That's Colby Armstrong money, and why I was worried.

But the Kings can take him to arbitration for a two year contract, after which he will be an RFA again. This blocks him from ever seeing offer sheets. Arbitration is a big risk for everyone, so they would compromise on a contract before any arbitration hearing, probably for a contract that is good for Simmonds by being four years and taking him to UFA, and good for the Kings by being a low cap hit.

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Old
03-03-2011, 04:21 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam View Post
It's actually less than that for Simmonds and Martinez since the qualifying offer is based on a player's Paragraph 1 NHL salary, not his cap hit (the cap hit includes performance bonuses whereas the Paragraph 1 NHL salary does not).
Indeed. Sometimes I forget that the numbers listed are the player's CAP hits and not their actual salary.

The actual MQO's should look more like this:
Simmonds .578m
Martinez .695m

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Knoll View Post
Schenn at $3.14, hmmm, how are you calculating the bonus without him reaching any incentives yet? Foreseeable bonuses? I've heard varying numbers on what he would have cost them had he played this season, it should carry over into next year since either way it's year one of his ELC. Further, I wouldn't worry about the bonus cushion, if it comes out of the next CBA that will not apply retroactively, the 2012-2013 season would be the first year without any cushion even if it's removed in 2011-2012.
I believe all of Schenn's potential earnings, paid or not, will count against the CAP in 11-12.

(C) If the NHLPA exercises its option to extend this Agreement
to September 15, 2012, consistent with Section 3.1(b) of
this Agreement, then for the 2011-12 League Year, all of
the above-described Performance Bonuses that could be
earned by the Players under SPCs with a Club shall be
counted against such Club's Upper Limit
for that League
Year (with no opportunity for the Clubs to "carry over" any
charges to their Upper Limit for the following League
Year).

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Old
03-04-2011, 04:18 AM
  #63
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I'm all for easing in youngsters but at this point it looks like Lokti Could show Stoll a thing or two. and NHL experience be damned, you still gotta believe that Schenn is even better than Lokti. If they are both ready than they are READY. I don't see "the Jamie Storr thing" happening with either of them if they are thrown to the wolves...in which case I would be all for a Smyth and Stoll trade for none to minimal cap hits in return. Is there any team that has cap space at the draft that could use an over priced character winger who grinds and still puts up points? how about A face off wiz, Grinder, 3rd liner center with a hard point shot, and all the same grit and character as Smyth? How about a package for both?

If we unloaded Smyth, Stoll, Drewiske, on draft day what could we get back?

...cause as you can see (below) we would have a lot of wiggle room for a contract but the UFA market seems weak as all hell this year. Also note that I waaaayyy over paid most of the RFA's just to prove a point. With exception to Doughty I don't think any of the RFA's would be rewarded as much as I gave them but I used "worst case contract negotiation scenarios" to show that moving the two "dead weight (as I see them) contracts" would free up enough cap space to over pay all of our priceless RFA's and still be competitive in acquiring a new top line player.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Dustin Penner ($4.250m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Scott Parse ($0.900m) / Andrei Loktionov ($0.816m) / Dustin Brown ($3.175m)
Oscar Moller ($1.300m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.140m) / Brad Richardson ($1.300m)
Kyle Clifford ($0.870m) / Trevor Lewis ($0.803m) / Wayne Simmonds ($2.500m)
/ / Kevin Westgarth ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / Willie Mitchell ($3.500m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.400m) / Matt Greene ($2.950m)
Drew Doughty ($6.500m) / Vyacheslav Voinov ($0.816m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($1.800m) / Jonathan Bernier ($1.250m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,603,725; BONUSES: $2,602,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $4,796,275



Please critique my useless work thinking this up!


Last edited by Manbearpig17: 03-04-2011 at 04:27 AM.
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Old
03-04-2011, 04:29 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manbearpig17 View Post
I'm all for easing in youngsters but at this point it looks like Lokti Could show Stoll a thing or two. and NHL experience be damned, you still gotta believe that Schenn is even better than Lokti. If they are both ready than they are READY. I don't see "the Jamie Storr thing" happening with either of them if they are thrown to the wolves...in which case I would be all for a Smyth and Stoll trade for none to minimal cap hits in return. Is there any team that has cap space at the draft that could use an over priced character winger who grinds and still puts up points? how about A face off wiz, Grinder, 3rd liner center with a hard point shot, and all the same grit and character as Smyth? How about a package for both?

If we unloaded Smyth, Stoll, Drewiske, on draft day what could we get back?

...cause as you can see (below) we would have a lot of wiggle room for a contract but the UFA market seems weak as all hell this year. Also note that I waaaayyy over paid most of the RFA's just to prove a point. With exception to Doughty I don't think any of the RFA's would be rewarded as much as I gave them but I used "worst case contract negotiation scenarios" to show that moving the two "dead weight (as I see them) contracts" would free up enough cap space to over pay all of our priceless RFA's and still be competitive in acquiring a new top line player.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Dustin Penner ($4.250m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Scott Parse ($0.900m) / Andrei Loktionov ($0.816m) / Dustin Brown ($3.175m)
Oscar Moller ($1.300m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.140m) / Brad Richardson ($1.300m)
Kyle Clifford ($0.870m) / Trevor Lewis ($0.803m) / Wayne Simmonds ($2.500m)
/ / Kevin Westgarth ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / Willie Mitchell ($3.500m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.400m) / Matt Greene ($2.950m)
Drew Doughty ($6.500m) / Vyacheslav Voinov ($0.816m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($1.800m) / Jonathan Bernier ($1.250m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,603,725; BONUSES: $2,602,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $4,796,275



Please critique my useless work thinking this up!
How about no?

Smyth and Stoll still have plenty to contribute to this team.

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Old
03-04-2011, 09:09 AM
  #65
Capn Brown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manbearpig17 View Post

FORWARDS
Dustin Penner ($4.250m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Scott Parse ($0.900m) / Andrei Loktionov ($0.816m) / Dustin Brown ($3.175m)
Oscar Moller ($1.300m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.140m) / Brad Richardson ($1.300m)
Kyle Clifford ($0.870m) / Trevor Lewis ($0.803m) / Wayne Simmonds ($2.500m)
/ / Kevin Westgarth ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / Willie Mitchell ($3.500m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.400m) / Matt Greene ($2.950m)
Drew Doughty ($6.500m) / Vyacheslav Voinov ($0.816m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($1.800m) / Jonathan Bernier ($1.250m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,603,725; BONUSES: $2,602,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $4,796,275



Please critique my useless work thinking this up!


1) Smyth is a lot more valuable than you believe. Lombardi will re-sign him (next summer) rather than trade him.

2) If Cal Clutterbuck ($1.4 million) isn't a $2 million player, what makes you think Simmonds is?

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03-04-2011, 09:37 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capn Brown View Post
1) Smyth is a lot more valuable than you believe. Lombardi will re-sign him (next summer) rather than trade him.

2) If Cal Clutterbuck ($1.4 million) isn't a $2 million player, what makes you think Simmonds is?
QFT.

Overpaid Simmonds and Doughty by about $1M, and I just can't see DL going into next season with his #2 and 3 centers essentially being rookies.

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03-04-2011, 09:43 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
Overpaid Simmonds and Doughty by about $1M, and I just can't see DL going into next season with his #2 and 3 centers essentially being rookies.

Yeah, that too.

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