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Why The NHL Draft Process Is Overrated

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Old
03-03-2011, 10:24 AM
  #26
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Thank god you aren't a lawyer, with that opening statement.

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03-03-2011, 11:14 AM
  #27
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That OP was one of the worst examples of cherry picking data...

No doubt you can build a team of undrafted players better than drafted players. It doesn't change the fact that most of the talent is found in drafted players.

If the draft is a total crapshoot, how is it that first rounders are statistically more likely to make it to the NHL? How is it that the likelihood of making it to the NHL decreases with every round? Clearly, it's not completely random. The best kids tend to be picked in the first round and the ones with the least potential (or the ones least likely to reach it) get picked later. It doesn't matter that you can point at outliers: there is a clear statistical trend which supports the notion that the draft is not completely random.

What you are doing is the equivalent of pointing out a bunch of days on which the weatherman was wrong, and using this to argue that the climate sciences have no value. That's not honest. One could point out that there is a clear correlation between weather predictions and what actually happens. You will never be able to get rid of the random fluctuation, but over time, it is minimized.

Just because the process has some element of chance to it does not make it random. NHL scouts are paid to find the kid most likely to make it, and they are doing a good job of it.

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03-03-2011, 12:26 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Capitano View Post
Moral of the story, draft the right players.
And, not only that, but develop them properly afterward. Since we could develop a few serviceable NHLers with 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th-rounders, some of us did freak out.

But there is no point in tanking this year around, nor to get first-rounders from playoff teams on draft day. Because we're not going to lose all the remaining games even if we tanked. We must stay the course until the playoffs.

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03-03-2011, 01:41 PM
  #29
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I think we can all agree that GM's and Head Scouts make their living in the first 2 rounds in the entry drafts. Any success after those rounds is pure fluke. Here's the Habs 1st and 2nd round drafting over the past 20 years.

We're looking for GREEN players here.

Note: I've left out the 2008 - 2010 drafts, as those players have not had a shot at the NHL yet.



Red = Bust
Green = Developed and contributed to Habs (5+ seasons)
Purple = NHL success but traded/left Habs before their prime (minimum 350 GP/ 200 GP for goalies)
Dark Orange = Traded before their prime, jury is still out
Blue = Still with Habs, jury is still out

1988 Entry 20 1 Eric Charron D Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 130 2 7 9 127
1988 Entry 34 2 Martin St. Amour L Verdun Junior Canadiens [QMJHL] 1 0 0 0 2


1989 Entry 13 1 Lindsay Vallis R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 1 0 0 0 0
1989 Entry 30 2 Patrice Brisebois D Laval Titan [QMJHL] 1009 98 322 420 623
1989 Entry 41 2 Steve Larouche C Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 26 9 9 18 10

1990 Entry 12 1 Turner Stevenson R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 644 75 115 190 969
1990 Entry 39 2 Ryan Kuwabara R Ottawa 67's [OHL]

1991 Entry 17 1 Brent Bilodeau D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
1991 Entry 28 2 Jim Campbell R Northwood Prep (N.Y.) 285 61 75 136 268
1991 Entry 43 2 Craig Darby C Albany Academy (N.Y.) 196 21 35 56 32


1992 Entry 20 1 David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 167 10 26 36 165
1992 Entry 33 2 Valeri Bure R Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 621 174 226 400 221
1992 Entry 44 2 Keli Corpse C Kingston Frontenacs [OHL]

1993 Entry 21 1 Saku Koivu C TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 922 223 503 726 693
1993 Entry 47 2 Rory Fitzpatrick D Sudbury Wolves [OHL] 287 10 25 35 201

1994 Entry 18 1 Brad Brown D North Bay Centennials [OHL] 330 2 27 29 747
1994 Entry 44 2 Jose Theodore G St. Jean Lynx [QMJHL] 571 1 16 17 34

1995 Entry 8 1 Terry Ryan L Tri-City Americans [WHL] 8 0 0 0 36

1996 Entry 18 1 Matt Higgins C Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 57 1 2 3 6

1996 Entry 44 2 Mathieu Garon G Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 267 0 5 5 28

1997 Entry 11 1 Jason Ward R Erie Otters [OHL] 336 36 45 81 171
1997 Entry 37 2 Gregor Baumgartner R Laval Titan College Francais [QMJHL]


1998 Entry 16 1 Eric Chouinard C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 90 11 11 22 16
1998 Entry 45 2 Mike Ribeiro C Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL] 644 148 330 478 272


1999 Entry 39 2 Alexander Buturlin R CSKA Jr. (Russia)
1999 Entry 58 2 Matt Carkner D Peterborough Petes [OHL] 133 3 16 19 328


2000 Entry 13 1 Ron Hainsey D U. of Lowell [H-East] 470 33 127 160 228
2000 Entry 16 1 Marcel Hossa L Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 237 31 30 61 106

2001 Entry 7 1 Mike Komisarek D U. of Michigan [CCHA] 455 13 59 72 595
2001 Entry 25 1 Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard [Russia] 128 15 19 34 86
2001 Entry 37 2 Duncan Milroy R Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 5 0 1 1 0


2002 Entry 14 1 Chris Higgins L Yale University [ECAC] 397 103 88 191 138
2002 Entry 45 2 Tomas Linhart D Pardubice Jr. (Czech)

2003 Entry 10 1 Andrei Kostitsyn R CSKA Moscow [Russia] 308 82 93 175 145
2003 Entry 40 2 Cory Urquhart C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL]
2003 Entry 61 2 Maxim Lapierre C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL] 315 40 43 83 295

2004 Entry 18 1 Kyle Chipchura C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 157 10 18 28 119

2005 Entry 5 1 Carey Price G Tri-City Americans [WHL] 190 0 6 6 25
2005 Entry 45 2 Guillaume Latendresse R Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 295 76 52 128 157

2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 21 0 0 0 8
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4

2007 Entry 12 1 Ryan McDonagh D Cretin Derham Hall H.S. (Minn.) 24 0 5 5 8
2007 Entry 22 1 Max Pacioretty L Sioux City Musketeers [USHL] 120 18 29 47 86
2007 Entry 43 2 P.K. Subban D Belleville Bulls [OHL] 61 7 23 30 90




4 players in 20 years. Our drafting has been mediocre, but our developing has been atrocious!!!

On a positive note, looking at the past couple of years, we have 5 players from 5 drafts that may contribute significantly to the Habs.

(Kostitsyn, Price, Carle, Pacioretty, Subban)


Last edited by Jerky: 03-03-2011 at 01:52 PM.
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Old
03-03-2011, 01:47 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Lefley View Post
I am a longtime observer of hockey and I have had the good fortune of getting some really interesting information from 2 different sources over the years: 1) a longtime US college scout who has worked for 2 different teams, including a recent Cup winner 2) a now retired physician who was on the staff of an NHL team for over 25 years.
I'm curious, what did these 2 sources tell you? I have a feeling it was nothing related to your post.

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03-03-2011, 02:18 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by TheBuriedHab View Post
Drafting is probably the most important part of an organization. Guys Like Pacioretty, Subban and Price will never hit the open market. Getting guys with Size and Skill is almost impossible in trades and ufa unless you overpay big time. When you go out and try to build a core through ufa like we tried to, you overpay for okay players.
Add proper development and organizational vision.

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Old
03-03-2011, 02:23 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerky View Post
I think we can all agree that GM's and Head Scouts make their living in the first 2 rounds in the entry drafts. Any success after those rounds is pure fluke. Here's the Habs 1st and 2nd round drafting over the past 20 years.

We're looking for GREEN players here.

Note: I've left out the 2008 - 2010 drafts, as those players have not had a shot at the NHL yet.



Red = Bust
Green = Developed and contributed to Habs (5+ seasons)
Purple = NHL success but traded/left Habs before their prime (minimum 350 GP/ 200 GP for goalies)
Dark Orange = Traded before their prime, jury is still out
Blue = Still with Habs, jury is still out

1988 Entry 20 1 Eric Charron D Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 130 2 7 9 127
1988 Entry 34 2 Martin St. Amour L Verdun Junior Canadiens [QMJHL] 1 0 0 0 2


1989 Entry 13 1 Lindsay Vallis R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 1 0 0 0 0
1989 Entry 30 2 Patrice Brisebois D Laval Titan [QMJHL] 1009 98 322 420 623
1989 Entry 41 2 Steve Larouche C Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 26 9 9 18 10

1990 Entry 12 1 Turner Stevenson R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 644 75 115 190 969
1990 Entry 39 2 Ryan Kuwabara R Ottawa 67's [OHL]

1991 Entry 17 1 Brent Bilodeau D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
1991 Entry 28 2 Jim Campbell R Northwood Prep (N.Y.) 285 61 75 136 268
1991 Entry 43 2 Craig Darby C Albany Academy (N.Y.) 196 21 35 56 32


1992 Entry 20 1 David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 167 10 26 36 165
1992 Entry 33 2 Valeri Bure R Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 621 174 226 400 221
1992 Entry 44 2 Keli Corpse C Kingston Frontenacs [OHL]

1993 Entry 21 1 Saku Koivu C TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 922 223 503 726 693
1993 Entry 47 2 Rory Fitzpatrick D Sudbury Wolves [OHL] 287 10 25 35 201

1994 Entry 18 1 Brad Brown D North Bay Centennials [OHL] 330 2 27 29 747
1994 Entry 44 2 Jose Theodore G St. Jean Lynx [QMJHL] 571 1 16 17 34

1995 Entry 8 1 Terry Ryan L Tri-City Americans [WHL] 8 0 0 0 36

1996 Entry 18 1 Matt Higgins C Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 57 1 2 3 6

1996 Entry 44 2 Mathieu Garon G Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 267 0 5 5 28

1997 Entry 11 1 Jason Ward R Erie Otters [OHL] 336 36 45 81 171
1997 Entry 37 2 Gregor Baumgartner R Laval Titan College Francais [QMJHL]


1998 Entry 16 1 Eric Chouinard C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 90 11 11 22 16
1998 Entry 45 2 Mike Ribeiro C Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL] 644 148 330 478 272


1999 Entry 39 2 Alexander Buturlin R CSKA Jr. (Russia)
1999 Entry 58 2 Matt Carkner D Peterborough Petes [OHL] 133 3 16 19 328


2000 Entry 13 1 Ron Hainsey D U. of Lowell [H-East] 470 33 127 160 228
2000 Entry 16 1 Marcel Hossa L Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 237 31 30 61 106

2001 Entry 7 1 Mike Komisarek D U. of Michigan [CCHA] 455 13 59 72 595
2001 Entry 25 1 Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard [Russia] 128 15 19 34 86
2001 Entry 37 2 Duncan Milroy R Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 5 0 1 1 0


2002 Entry 14 1 Chris Higgins L Yale University [ECAC] 397 103 88 191 138
2002 Entry 45 2 Tomas Linhart D Pardubice Jr. (Czech)

2003 Entry 10 1 Andrei Kostitsyn R CSKA Moscow [Russia] 308 82 93 175 145
2003 Entry 40 2 Cory Urquhart C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL]
2003 Entry 61 2 Maxim Lapierre C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL] 315 40 43 83 295

2004 Entry 18 1 Kyle Chipchura C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 157 10 18 28 119

2005 Entry 5 1 Carey Price G Tri-City Americans [WHL] 190 0 6 6 25
2005 Entry 45 2 Guillaume Latendresse R Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 295 76 52 128 157

2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 21 0 0 0 8
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4

2007 Entry 12 1 Ryan McDonagh D Cretin Derham Hall H.S. (Minn.) 24 0 5 5 8
2007 Entry 22 1 Max Pacioretty L Sioux City Musketeers [USHL] 120 18 29 47 86
2007 Entry 43 2 P.K. Subban D Belleville Bulls [OHL] 61 7 23 30 90




4 players in 20 years. Our drafting has been mediocre, but our developing has been atrocious!!!

On a positive note, looking at the past couple of years, we have 5 players from 5 drafts that may contribute significantly to the Habs.

(Kostitsyn, Price, Carle, Pacioretty, Subban)
Awesome post and facts ! Hopefully Leblanc & Tinordi can be added to those 5. the Habs would have an amazing team with better drafting in the first two rounds.

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Old
03-03-2011, 02:45 PM
  #33
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Blue and purple? Red and green? You're giving my color blind eyes fits

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03-03-2011, 02:51 PM
  #34
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there is no logic in your post.. Drafting isnt an exact science, but when you have a strong scouting staff, it can make the difference, especially under a cap era where the cheap young players you add to your line-up are always a bonus..

Habs have drafted 2 franchise players over the last couple of years, Price and Subban.. They also drafted alot of kids playing in the NHL these days and doing fine.. MaxPac A.Kost Halak S.Kost Grabovski Dagostini OByrne to name few.. By trading Halak we got Lars Eller, a 13th overall pick, by trading Grabovski we got a second draft pick, that we traded for Robert Lang adding punch at the deadline for the playoffs run.. By trading Dags we got Palushaj, a former collegial teammates of MaxPac and a pretty good prospect too, someone who probably helped Max in his progression as well.. In OByrne we got Michael Bournival.. I mean when you draft well you have more opportunities offered to you, when you dont draft well you spend your time trying to fill your team with overpaid NHLers, see the Leafs and the Flames..

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Old
03-03-2011, 03:14 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm curious, what did these 2 sources tell you? I have a feeling it was nothing related to your post.
Actually it is related to the post. I did not include it because it would have made an already lengthy post that much longer.

It has to do with the politics that exist within each NHL organization.

From the college scouting side, there is a constant battle versus the Canadian Major Jr league scouts- which system (college vs junior) is better for certain types of players, issues of age and maturity (physical and emotional maturity),toughness,style,quality of coaching, etc.
Certain organizations have demonstrated a heavy bias over 5 year drafting cycles (sometimes longer).

There are the politics of N.American players vs.Scandinavian vs Russian vs. Eastern European. Each has their own advocates and detractors.

Mix in the fact that the head scout and player development people are sometimes a fairly harmonious bunch and sometimes can't stand each other.

Add further the dynamic with the GM and/or Assistant GM and their scouting people.Many senior hockey people are loathe to admit they ever make mistakes. As a result, they insulate and hide failures as best they can. You can only try to fit a square peg into a round hole so many times.

I think it is ironic that some organizations are so self-absorbed that they almost never find room for unsigned free agents or low round draft choices. Conversely, you get organizations that know when to let go of previously cherished highly-drafted players.

At the NHL level, every team claims that they are always on the lookout for the best available player, wherever they come from. This is lip service because certain tendencies and trends develop over time, both for and against different types of players.

Inevitably the Halak vs Price debate came down to this: Price was the anointed one, the first round golden boy. Halak was the long shot late round draft pick who had to work that much harder to succeed in the organization. It was never even a question as to who was going to be traded. (For the record, I think that they both have fantastic futures in the NHL)

The retired team physician I know was explicitly and routinely told by management who the preferred players were within that organization at various times, how the top draft choices were given alot more latitude in issues of behavior and substance abuse.

The NHL is not a place where people are treated equally. A big determination of how well you are treated early on comes from which round you were drafted and/or who (which scout or region) drafted you. Once you have proven yourself, obviously things change.

Just to add fuel to the fire on previous debates, both the college scout and the team physician have had various interactions with the MTL organization over the years. Bob Gainey, to both of them, is a tremendously well-respected hockey mind and person. Trevor Timmins gets a lot of praise for finding talent beyond the 4th round (Halak,Streit,SK,Grabovski,Brooks Laich,) Pierre Gauthier does not command the same respect that Gainey does, although he seems to be viewed with a some measure of positive regard. Both agree that the Houle years were very tough times and the office had more leaks than the Titanic.

One other note. Some people read and understood my point. Others seemed to focus too much on the teams that were compiled. I simply included a representative sample of the weak former top-10s still playing. If i listed all the first round busts from the past 15 years the internet would probably crash.

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Old
03-03-2011, 03:33 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerky View Post
I think we can all agree that GM's and Head Scouts make their living in the first 2 rounds in the entry drafts. Any success after those rounds is pure fluke. Here's the Habs 1st and 2nd round drafting over the past 20 years.

We're looking for GREEN players here.

Note: I've left out the 2008 - 2010 drafts, as those players have not had a shot at the NHL yet.



Red = Bust
Green = Developed and contributed to Habs (5+ seasons)
Purple = NHL success but traded/left Habs before their prime (minimum 350 GP/ 200 GP for goalies)
Dark Orange = Traded before their prime, jury is still out
Blue = Still with Habs, jury is still out

1988 Entry 20 1 Eric Charron D Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 130 2 7 9 127
1988 Entry 34 2 Martin St. Amour L Verdun Junior Canadiens [QMJHL] 1 0 0 0 2


1989 Entry 13 1 Lindsay Vallis R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 1 0 0 0 0
1989 Entry 30 2 Patrice Brisebois D Laval Titan [QMJHL] 1009 98 322 420 623
1989 Entry 41 2 Steve Larouche C Trois Rivieres Draveurs [QMJHL] 26 9 9 18 10

1990 Entry 12 1 Turner Stevenson R Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 644 75 115 190 969
1990 Entry 39 2 Ryan Kuwabara R Ottawa 67's [OHL]

1991 Entry 17 1 Brent Bilodeau D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
1991 Entry 28 2 Jim Campbell R Northwood Prep (N.Y.) 285 61 75 136 268
1991 Entry 43 2 Craig Darby C Albany Academy (N.Y.) 196 21 35 56 32


1992 Entry 20 1 David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 167 10 26 36 165
1992 Entry 33 2 Valeri Bure R Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 621 174 226 400 221
1992 Entry 44 2 Keli Corpse C Kingston Frontenacs [OHL]

1993 Entry 21 1 Saku Koivu C TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 922 223 503 726 693
1993 Entry 47 2 Rory Fitzpatrick D Sudbury Wolves [OHL] 287 10 25 35 201

1994 Entry 18 1 Brad Brown D North Bay Centennials [OHL] 330 2 27 29 747
1994 Entry 44 2 Jose Theodore G St. Jean Lynx [QMJHL] 571 1 16 17 34

1995 Entry 8 1 Terry Ryan L Tri-City Americans [WHL] 8 0 0 0 36

1996 Entry 18 1 Matt Higgins C Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 57 1 2 3 6

1996 Entry 44 2 Mathieu Garon G Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 267 0 5 5 28

1997 Entry 11 1 Jason Ward R Erie Otters [OHL] 336 36 45 81 171
1997 Entry 37 2 Gregor Baumgartner R Laval Titan College Francais [QMJHL]


1998 Entry 16 1 Eric Chouinard C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 90 11 11 22 16
1998 Entry 45 2 Mike Ribeiro C Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL] 644 148 330 478 272


1999 Entry 39 2 Alexander Buturlin R CSKA Jr. (Russia)
1999 Entry 58 2 Matt Carkner D Peterborough Petes [OHL] 133 3 16 19 328


2000 Entry 13 1 Ron Hainsey D U. of Lowell [H-East] 470 33 127 160 228
2000 Entry 16 1 Marcel Hossa L Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 237 31 30 61 106

2001 Entry 7 1 Mike Komisarek D U. of Michigan [CCHA] 455 13 59 72 595
2001 Entry 25 1 Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard [Russia] 128 15 19 34 86
2001 Entry 37 2 Duncan Milroy R Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 5 0 1 1 0


2002 Entry 14 1 Chris Higgins L Yale University [ECAC] 397 103 88 191 138
2002 Entry 45 2 Tomas Linhart D Pardubice Jr. (Czech)

2003 Entry 10 1 Andrei Kostitsyn R CSKA Moscow [Russia] 308 82 93 175 145
2003 Entry 40 2 Cory Urquhart C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL]
2003 Entry 61 2 Maxim Lapierre C Montreal Rocket [QMJHL] 315 40 43 83 295

2004 Entry 18 1 Kyle Chipchura C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 157 10 18 28 119

2005 Entry 5 1 Carey Price G Tri-City Americans [WHL] 190 0 6 6 25
2005 Entry 45 2 Guillaume Latendresse R Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 295 76 52 128 157

2006 Entry 20 1 David Fischer D Apple Valley H.S. (Minn)
2006 Entry 49 2 Ben Maxwell C Kootenay Ice [WHL] 21 0 0 0 8
2006 Entry 53 2 Mathieu Carle D Acadie-Bathurst Titan [QMJHL] 3 0 0 0 4

2007 Entry 12 1 Ryan McDonagh D Cretin Derham Hall H.S. (Minn.) 24 0 5 5 8
2007 Entry 22 1 Max Pacioretty L Sioux City Musketeers [USHL] 120 18 29 47 86
2007 Entry 43 2 P.K. Subban D Belleville Bulls [OHL] 61 7 23 30 90




4 players in 20 years. Our drafting has been mediocre, but our developing has been atrocious!!!

On a positive note, looking at the past couple of years, we have 5 players from 5 drafts that may contribute significantly to the Habs.

(Kostitsyn, Price, Carle, Pacioretty, Subban)

I think that the Detroit Red Wings beg to differ:

Zetterberg 7th Rd
Datsyuk 6th Rd
Lidstrom 3rd Rd (53rd overall)

Three franchise players taken beyond the top 50, 2 of them beyond the top 170.

It is a good thing they have lived off of those picks because some of their top picks have been atrocious. Look at 1996,1997,1999,2001 and you will see nothing generated at the top end of those draft years. No team is perfect.

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Old
03-03-2011, 04:22 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Lefley View Post
I think that the Detroit Red Wings beg to differ:

Zetterberg 7th Rd
Datsyuk 6th Rd
Lidstrom 3rd Rd (53rd overall)

Three franchise players taken beyond the top 50, 2 of them beyond the top 170.

It is a good thing they have lived off of those picks because some of their top picks have been atrocious. Look at 1996,1997,1999,2001 and you will see nothing generated at the top end of those draft years. No team is perfect.

when I say "make their living", I mean this is where all their "expertise" should go. Anyone could have selected Zetterberg/ Datsyuk earlier, but all teams passed, so they definitely are fluke picks.

what I'm saying is that top 60 drafted players should have homerun potential. The way that the Habs have drafted in the first 2 rounds in the past 20 years, you or I could have been head scout and drafted much better without have any "expertise". I don't see how we could have done much worse!

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03-03-2011, 05:27 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by impudent_lowlife View Post
Excellent! I believe I've already posted this info in another thread but someone has already gone to the trouble of taking a statistical look at the NHL draft since the '90s and the percentage of players that end up playing in the NHL. The statistics are something like like this:

1st round = 65%
2nd round = 25%
3rd round+ = 12%

It's a crapshoot at best and the Terry Ryans and Matt Higgins picks allude to that fact.
This is so wrong. It is actually 25% for the first round, 12% for the 2nd and then down to 6, 4 and 2 after that. On average for the past 10 years only 19% of all players drafted make the nhl.

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03-03-2011, 05:45 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by sevil View Post
This is so wrong. It is actually 25% for the first round, 12% for the 2nd and then down to 6, 4 and 2 after that. On average for the past 10 years only 19% of all players drafted make the nhl.
This sounds wrong.

So you're saying only 7-8/30 players make the NHL from round 1 per draft

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03-03-2011, 07:24 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sevil View Post
This is so wrong. It is actually 25% for the first round, 12% for the 2nd and then down to 6, 4 and 2 after that. On average for the past 10 years only 19% of all players drafted make the nhl.
25-30% is the % of players who will have a real impact on their team in the future.
60-65% of them will be indeed NHL players. Regulars in the roster at least.

Its just that there is a lot of 3rd liners-3rd pairing D, much more than you might expect. And obviously, when you compare a 2nd overall pick with a 17th and the first one is a future all-star when the other is just a winger able to pot 12 goals/year, this might hurts.

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:32 PM
  #41
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Broken logic is broken

Fact : Its faster to travel 100km by foot than by plane.


THE PLANE CRASHES!

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