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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VII

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Old
03-11-2011, 12:21 PM
  #901
BM67
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Actually, I believe BM67 took that information from the Trail - or at least so he said. At any rate, incomplete data is a problem, but we can only credit what we can prove. I did read your bio, and two quotes stick out in regards to Oatman's all-star participation:



...which seems to imply that Oatman was an all-star in 1915-16. Problem is, we don't know it he was a 1st or 2nd teamer.



...which says the same thing (as the context is clearly the 1915-16 PCHA season).

The thing is, I don't take the PCHA 2nd team all-stars very seriously, at all, due to the split league and the fact that there were only three teams in the league most seasons. Being a 2nd teamer meant that a player was actually average. Think about it. We, as a group, really need to stop throwing around PCHA 2nd team all-star credits like they are worth anything. They are not.

It appears that Oatman was a 1st team all-star twice, maybe three times - though 1915-16 is unclear. This doesn't compare well, at all, to guys like Foyston and Morris who were 1st teamers six times, or to 5-time 1st teamer MacKay.

Your career scoring numbers are also misleading in that they compare Oatman to players who clearly peaked a good deal higher than he did. Peak value is not everything, but a sustained peak of 5-6 seasons with lower value in non-peak years is considerably more valuable than year after year of being merely "good", which is pretty much how Oatman's career looks to me in comparison to Foyston, Morris and MacKay.
The Trail gives two years of the complete PCHA all-stars (one team only, 2nd team starts in 15-16 it appears) in the year by year write-ups, and mentions them in many player bios, and that is where I started. I then went through Total Hockey and found some more, and seventies found some more at SIHR. Players are referred to as 1st or 2nd team all-stars, but also as just all-stars. Possibly they were members of the X-Game squad. The picture is anything but complete or clear.

I also note that the 22-23 team has spares listed, and Oatman was a 1st team spare. (Have to try to find the article I got that from again.) Is that better than being on the 2nd team? Since we have several years with 9 or so players mentioned as 1st team all-stars, I assume spares were names in other years as well.

Oatman is not in Total Hockey, or on the HHoF website, so he doesn't have a bio listing all his all-star spots. Neither does Taylor for that matter. I do have him listed as a 1st team all-star 3 times, and have to assume most of the rest were 2nd team, but really have no hard data to prove anything one way or the other.

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03-11-2011, 01:01 PM
  #902
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Reen, I just haven't had time to reply to your PM yet, but I meant to still do that.

Now that you have made a pick, should I bother?
if you have the time , it will be appreciated , I have a pick coming up.

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03-11-2011, 01:15 PM
  #903
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so they're gonna be a maintenance on the site , what do we do for the clocks?

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03-11-2011, 01:28 PM
  #904
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so they're gonna be a maintenance on the site , what do we do for the clocks?
Obviously we will skip eveyone that miss their clock during the maintenance ...

Yea, just stop the clock at 5PM until the site is up again.

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Old
03-11-2011, 01:49 PM
  #905
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I don't think you should think that being a PCHA 2nd team all-star is special either. But a bigger concern should be just how much weight you place on all-star teams for PCHA players. At the moment, it appears to be your #1 criteria, by far. Should it be? For example, do we know if the 1st and 2nd team RW were practically even in terms of performance? Or was there a massive chasm there, and the 2nd teamer was no better than the scrub below him? Was the 2nd team RW actually better than every LW that season? Or vice versa?

What you are basically saying is,

1st team = good
2nd team = average
not on 1st or 2nd team = bad

And that may or not be true. Whether it is or not, it's an extremely..... binary way to judge these players.
It is a rather binary measure, to be sure, but when we're talking about six vs. three 1st all-star teams, I think even as rough as measure as that is telling. As you know, the PCHA all-star teams were chosen annually by Mickey Ion, who refereed every game of every season. On the one hand, it is only one man's opinion, but on the other hand, he is a neutral party and had a much more intimate game-by-game knowledge of the whole player universe than any other all-star voting body in history. As such, I consider the PCHA all-star selections the single most valuable all-star selections that we have for judging the relative performance of the players involved.

No, we don't know the full difference between the first and second teams for every season, but that doesn't mean we should assume it was unusually small. Morris dominated Oatman at right wing in the seasons they played in the PCHL together. It is what it is. Until we have evidence that could explain the discrepancy away, we have to assume that Morris was simply the better player. To make a long story short, yes, I place a lot of value in the PCHL 1st team all-star data (such as we have it) because it is very valuable.

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Before undertaking that, I do recall you mentioning that playmakers who played in the days before full recording of assists, get a bit shafted in their overall point totals. I agree, yet, I've never made such an adjustment with regards to Oatman when I discuss his percentages. What are your thoughts on tripling the assist totals to "normalize" the assists per goal rate from 0.47 to a more modern-looking 1.41?
I'm not sure what an appropriate adjustment would look like, though as the owner of three of that era's better playmakers (Boucher, Fredrickson and Smith), I would suggest multiplying the assists by at least ten , maybe better twenty. Heh. But seriously, yes, an adjustment of assists would help Oatman somewhat, but then he was only really elite one season (1st in PCHA assists) in that department, so I don't know by how much.

Oatman seems to have been consistently quite a good player, but maybe never great. I accept the evidence of his two-way play for what it is. If he was really great (like Jack Walker), he'd have been an all-star more often as his scoring isn't that far below Morris', but I believe he was a good backchecker. I would classify him as an above average backchecker in the ATD. I'm still uncertain of his physical/puckwinning game because; although Oatman seems to have been willing to fight with his fists, he is also described as a gentlemanly player and with the exception of Johnny Bucyk, digging along the boards has never been a gentleman's game.

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03-11-2011, 02:54 PM
  #906
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
It is a rather binary measure, to be sure, but when we're talking about six vs. three 1st all-star teams, I think even as rough as measure as that is telling. As you know, the PCHA all-star teams were chosen annually by Mickey Ion, who refereed every game of every season. On the one hand, it is only one man's opinion, but on the other hand, he is a neutral party and had a much more intimate game-by-game knowledge of the whole player universe than any other all-star voting body in history. As such, I consider the PCHA all-star selections the single most valuable all-star selections that we have for judging the relative performance of the players involved.

No, we don't know the full difference between the first and second teams for every season, but that doesn't mean we should assume it was unusually small. Morris dominated Oatman at right wing in the seasons they played in the PCHL together. It is what it is. Until we have evidence that could explain the discrepancy away, we have to assume that Morris was simply the better player. To make a long story short, yes, I place a lot of value in the PCHL 1st team all-star data (such as we have it) because it is very valuable.
- I don't disagree that the information is valuable as to whom was better than whom.

- Just to be clear, I am not trying to say that the difference from 1st to 2nd was small, or that I have reason to believe that. I'm only pointing out that we really know nothing about whether it was or not. (in a league with 6 teams and 18 RWs, the best and 2nd-best RW in the league are a pretty known quantity, but with a three team sample size, they could be all over the map - like I said, they could be practically even, worlds apart, the league could have 3 RWs better than any LW, or vice versa, and so on)

- I did say I agree Morris was better. If Oatman's close to him (and I think he is), it's because he brought more to the table and for longevity reasons. Morris was better offensively and deserved those first team spots. I've had Morris and Oatman on my 2nd and 4th line at the same time; I'm aware of where they stand in the offensive pecking order relative to eachother.

Quote:
I'm not sure what an appropriate adjustment would look like, though as the owner of three of that era's better playmakers (Boucher, Fredrickson and Smith), I would suggest multiplying the assists by at least ten , maybe better twenty. Heh. But seriously, yes, an adjustment of assists would help Oatman somewhat, but then he was only really elite one season (1st in PCHA assists) in that department, so I don't know by how much.
It wouldn't so much "boost" Oatman's scores as much as it would bring the overall packes of Frank Foyston and Tommy Dunderdale down to earth. Foyston's five best PCHA assist finishes are 5, 5, 7, 8, 11. Dunderdale's are 3, 4, 5, 6, 6. oatman's are 1, 3, 4, 4, 5.

I decided that I will multiply assists by 2, making assists and goals equal value. This means that I'm not necessarily placing them in a modern context, but then "modern context" may actually overvalue assists relative to goals (I have mixed feelings on that, though)

Quote:
Oatman seems to have been consistently quite a good player, but maybe never great. I accept the evidence of his two-way play for what it is. If he was really great (like Jack Walker), he'd have been an all-star more often as his scoring isn't that far below Morris', but I believe he was a good backchecker. I would classify him as an above average backchecker in the ATD. I'm still uncertain of his physical/puckwinning game because; although Oatman seems to have been willing to fight with his fists, he is also described as a gentlemanly player and with the exception of Johnny Bucyk, digging along the boards has never been a gentleman's game.
- I agree, he was probably a very good backchecker but in no way was he like Jack Walker. Walker's defense is legendary.

- Oatman's offense WAS much lower than Morris' though. They were in the PCHA together for 6 full seasons, and Morris outscored Oatman by a minimum of 35% each year, and as much as 88% once. What I'm saying is, I don't think any amount of defense would overcome the obvious offense edge when it comes to all-star spots. We're in agreement about his defensive value anyway.

- His puckwinning is definitely more of a gray area because there aren't many references to old players about this aspect of their game, likely because it wasn't as important as it would later become. I tend to believe the grittier, harder working types would have been the better puckwinners, and Oatman fits that bill. As for him being a "gentleman", his PIMs don't indicate this, and I always took Selke's quote literally, as in he was a good guy, not a gentlemanly player.

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03-11-2011, 03:39 PM
  #907
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Guess I'll go and grab a man who coached one of the greatest dynasty's ever, Pete Green

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The style of hockey seems to be the only one known and people consider it quite proper and legitimate for a team to endeavor to incapacitate their opponents rather than to excel them in skill and speed ... slashing, tripping, the severest kind of cross-checking and a systematic method of hammering Marlboroughs on hand and wrists are the most effective points in Ottawa's style.-Toronto Globe
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"Manager Pete Green changed his system Saturday night and caught the Toronto team flat-footed. Instead of laying his men back at the start of the match, the Ottawa coach opened up a cyclonic attack, and Ottawa had two goals in the bag before the Torontos settled down."- The Toronto World, January 24th 1921
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Green’s Senators won games with superb goaltending and defense. The late hockey historian Stanley Coleman writes in his trilogy The Trail of the Stanley Cup that the 1921 Senators used a “Kitty bar the door technique which their opponents found very frustrating.” Indeed the Senators led the NHL in defense from 1920-23 which begs the question: was this a reflection of Green’s hockey philosophy or did he simply lead with his strength and push the right buttons?-Matthew Dibiase
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"Ottawa used their safety-first five man defensive system and St.Pats used very poor judgement in trying to get through. Coach Green's system won a champion for Ottawa last season, and unless the other teams find a way to offset it, the Senators will repeat this year."- Globe and Mail, December 30, 1920
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""Pete" Green has the best material in the league, and in the second, he has perfected a system that to date has baffled all attempts to break it down. He uses a five-man defensive system, goes on the assumption that nine out of every 10 players will not pass the puck, and instructs his players to play the man. It is a defensive system, the kind that has received many hard knocks in the past, but the results obtained by Ottawa are proof that Green knows what he's doing."- January 17, 1921
Green was likely more of a defensive coach no doubt, but based on how well offensively his team did, I think he was decently adaptable. I think the Toronto St. Pats strong goaltending (Dryden), Top-3 who are all pretty good defensively(Pilote, Babe Siebert, Ross), and a forward group that has 7/9 forwards that are at least solid in defensive ability will suit him well, while Green will be able to coach the kind of offensive-defensive balance the Pats have, same as he did with the old Senators, I believe.

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Old
03-11-2011, 03:48 PM
  #908
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St. Pats... NOT Pats.

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Old
03-11-2011, 03:52 PM
  #909
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St. Pats... NOT Pats.


"What do I look like, some guy that's not lazy?"

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Old
03-11-2011, 03:56 PM
  #910
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The Millionares select defenceman Keith ''maggie'' Magnuson and RW Bobby Schmautz.

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Old
03-11-2011, 04:00 PM
  #911
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magnuson solid pick

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Old
03-11-2011, 04:36 PM
  #912
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PCHA Offensive Dominance Study

I multiplied everyone's assists by 2, to make goals and assists of equal value when calculating point totals. Then I gave everyone a percentage score for every PCHA season, based on the #2 point scorer. (this allows Taylor to get true credit for his dominance and not just a bunch of vanilla "100" scores)

Here are everyone's best eight seasons, as well as the sum of their best 5:

Player Taylor Morris Harris MacKay Dunderdale Fredrickson Foyston Oatman Walker
Best 129 111 112 109 131 137 100 100 97
2nd 129 100 100 100 103 128 94 92 64
3rd 123 100 97 100 92 100 86 76 63
4th 122 100 87 100 76 100 82 76 61
5th 117 97 84 69 72 79 70 55
6th 100 81 69 68 71 69 69 46
7th 69 60 54 63 67 61 65 46
8th 46 24 51 59 59 43 60 33
Sum(1:5) 620 508 480 478 474 465 441 414 340

Notes:

- I'm going with a 5-year peak here to demonstrate dominance. The 6th-8th-best years are there just for illustration of longevity.

- Fredrickson's "best 5" is actually just based on his "best 4".

- Foyston and Dunderdale, being relatively poor playmakers for centers, don't score as well as a more offensively rounded guy like Morris.

- No one undrafted is "left out" here - these are the most prolific offensive players in the history of the PCHA.

- Jack Adams (98, 97, 44) and Gord Roberts (98, 59, 56) would have made sizeable dents in these lists if they had played 5 PCHA seasons. Roberts, however, suffers from the "great goalscorer, poor playmaker" syndrome.

- The end results are just as I expected, with one exception which I will get to next. You have Cyclone Taylor, 112 "points" ahead of 2nd place Bernie Morris, who is 94 "points" ahead of 8th place Eddie Oatman. Oatman is another 74 points ahead of Jack Walker, who then leads "the pack" of other decent PCHA forwards, one undrafted being the most prominent.

- Taylor and Morris are literally the only two PCHA players to have had a "6th-best" season worth writing home about. Notice that Harris, MacKay, Dunderdale, Foyston and Oatman all range from 68 to 71 on that line.

- Oatman's longevity begins to shine through, but too late. He has the best "8th-best" season of any PCHA forward, and his "7th-best" is also just a hair below those of Taylor and Dunderdale. His "6th-best" is in line with everyone except Taylor and Morris, and he still hangs with Foyston, Dunderdale and MacKay as far as "5th-best" is concerned. However, it's clear that he is the 7th-best offensive forward in PCHA history.

- The reason I say 7th, is because of the surprise player on this list: Smokey Harris. Harris had the benefit of spending a lot of seasons with Cyclone Taylor as his Rover. I don't think Harris is the 3rd-most offensively dominant PCHA forward any more than I think Kevin Stevens was the NHL's 2nd-best offensive player in 1992 or Ron Francis 4th in 1996. It's very difficult to quantify just how much Taylor contributed to Harris' scoring stats, but Harris easily leads this list in the category "points behind a linemate on this list". On my "who played with who" chart from the old Oatman bio, it was shown that Taylor himself even played with more HHOFers per season than most PCHA players had the benefit of, so that was even more beneficial to Harris. Given the massive dropoff from Oatman to Walker, I wouldn't dare place him any further down the list than the spot between those two (and much closer to Oatman than Walker), but intuitively, I am pretty sure that's where he belongs. He's not in the hall, nothing "great" is written about him, and he benefitted from Taylor. Feel free to disagree on that one.

- I think roughly the same thing I thought before: Taylor should get selected in the 20s, and then the rest of these guys in the 180-320 range. Walker should be selected based on draft size, as he's a specialist, but should be among the first 5 3rd line LWs selected. Harris should be in the 350 range.

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03-11-2011, 04:51 PM
  #913
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Guess I'll go out and grab Ultimate Hockey's best defensive player, shadow, and penalty killer of 1920-29 (not that this is necessarily true, but I think it likely displays some good profciency in each of these areas), who came up rather good in the playoffs, 1st and 2nd in points two seperate years; LW Percy Galbraith

Bio:

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2...&postcount=108

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03-11-2011, 04:57 PM
  #914
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
PCHA Offensive Dominance Study

I multiplied everyone's assists by 2, to make goals and assists of equal value when calculating point totals.
It's probably a dumb question, but why have you multiply the assists total of everyone by 2? I just can't figure out why.

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03-11-2011, 05:05 PM
  #915
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It's probably a dumb question, but why have you multiply the assists total of everyone by 2? I just can't figure out why.
Assists were given out at the rate of an average of 0.47 per goal to PCHA forwards from the 1913-1924 seasons, which is incredibly low. A player's point totals will be heavily driven by their goal totals in that environment. If I double it, then it's more or less a 1:1 ratio and their points are equally dependent on their goals as they are on their assists.

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03-11-2011, 05:11 PM
  #916
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Assists were given out at the rate of an average of 0.47 per goal to PCHA forwards from the 1913-1924 seasons, which is incredibly low. A player's point totals will be heavily driven by their goal totals in that environment. If I double it, then it's more or less a 1:1 ratio and their points are equally dependent on their goals as they are on their assists.
I understand, but not sure if I completely agree with the study. I definitely understand comparing goals to goals and assists to assists, but isn't giving a substantial raise in assists total help the playmakers look better? The game in the 1910's was definitely more a puck possesion kind of one than a passing game like today. I'm not saying I disagree, but doubling the assists of everyone seems wrong.

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03-11-2011, 05:14 PM
  #917
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playmaking was probably less important and puck possession/shooting more important than hockey as we know it, and that's why I only doubled assists instead of tripling or nearly quadrupling it to a more "modern" rate of 1.75.

0.94:1 is very fair and appropriate. It represents that there were probably less assists to give out, but at the same time, acknowledges that assists were being underreported. Not every 2nd goal was an end-to-end individual rush - right? The game reports don't sound like that.

not that adjusted stats are the gold standard of stats, but any adjusted statistic I've seen accounts for the low assist rates of the old days, to make it more comparable to modern times. It's just good logic.

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03-11-2011, 05:15 PM
  #918
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Very interesting stuff, well done.

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03-11-2011, 05:23 PM
  #919
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
playmaking was probably less important and puck possession/shooting more important than hockey as we know it, and that's why I only doubled assists instead of tripling or nearly quadrupling it to a more "modern" rate of 1.75.

0.94:1 is very fair and appropriate. It represents that there were probably less assists to give out, but at the same time, acknowledges that assists were being underreported. Not every 2nd goal was an end-to-end individual rush - right? The game reports don't sound like that.

not that adjusted stats are the gold standard of stats, but any adjusted statistic I've seen accounts for the low assist rates of the old days, to make it more comparable to modern times. It's just good logic.
Allright, I can buy that. Thanks for the clarification.


PS. Do you know where I could find the MVP Results for the Russian League in the late-1960's - 1970's?

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03-11-2011, 05:33 PM
  #920
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Very interesting stuff, well done.
Thank you. I hope you don't think I'm being unnecessarily hard on Harris. I did still conclude that you got him at a pretty hefty discount. At the very least, anyone should still concede that he was a complementary offensive/role player similar to a Prentice in terms of skill (but not in terms of intangibles, not yet, anyway)

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PS. Do you know where I could find the MVP Results for the Russian League in the late-1960's - 1970's?
Yes, the link is in sturm's Ruskies thread, but last time I scanned the thread for it, I got tired of looking and gave up.

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03-11-2011, 05:35 PM
  #921
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Reading more and more on Firsov (a lot of Vikulov hit end up talking about Firsov, since they played a lot together), I would strongly suggest to put Anatoli Firsov, LW/C on the draft page instead of only Anatoli Firsov, LW. Firsov played a lot of centre in the late 1960's, alongside Vikulov and an undrafted, far enough that he could be as valuable at that position. You could also go as far as putting Anatoli Firsov, F, as he even won a first All-Star spot at the right wing position in 1964. Since it seems people rely a lot on the first page to put players in certain position, I believe we should correct those mistakes for future drafts. (I see Sloan was corrected, nice to see)

If Marcotte can get the F after his name, although we have no clue just how many games or how good he was as a centre or a right winger, Anatoli Firsov most definitely should be ranked as a F

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03-11-2011, 05:45 PM
  #922
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there's no guarantee that Firsov was a RW that season, they may have just named the three best forwards - I think this was discussed in that thread too.

However, it is confirmed that he played some center. I agree he should be listed as "LW/C".

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03-11-2011, 05:47 PM
  #923
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there's no guarantee that Firsov was a RW that season, they may have just named the three best forwards - I think this was discussed in that thread too.

However, it is confirmed that he played some center. I agree he should be listed as "LW/C".
Allright, I didn't read through the thread and will adjust my biography accordingly.

However, he played more than 'some center'. He actually played centre for several season.

I hope I'll have time to do a biography on Marcotte. I have a hard time believing he can be as effective at the centre position than on the wing.

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03-11-2011, 06:52 PM
  #924
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magnuson solid pick
He was on my radar a awhile back now.

monster_bertuzzi is offline  
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03-11-2011, 08:01 PM
  #925
VanIslander
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510. overpass - Ottawa Senators - Dan Bain, C
511. raleh - Springfield Indians - Valery Kamensky, LW
514. JFA87-66-99 - Pittsburgh Bankers - Dick Irvin, Sr., C
All good value for legitimate 2nd liners. They were backup plans in case I decided to wait to complete a second line.

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