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2011 Draft Discussion (June 24-25)

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Old
05-30-2011, 07:21 PM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerky Leclerc View Post
He sounds like a Finnish Corey Perry in 2003.
I wonder if he will be as effective in front of the net and as a pest. It'd be awesome!

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05-30-2011, 09:06 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by wesott11 View Post
In my opinion I think having the first four picks in the 1-3rd, we should take players that aren't as big of risks. I always feel the last 2 picks in the draft should be the 'out there' picks. If a 5th rounder doesn't pan out, no one will blink twice at the pick most likely. A 3rd busts? That leaves a bigger question mark to me.
Have you looked at the historical hit rate of 3rd rounders? It ain't good ... a 3rd rounder who doesn't make much impact at the NHL level is the norm, not the exception.

I looked at this a few years back ... most of the talent in any draft comes from the 1st round, but even then there's usually a big drop off within those first 30 or so picks. A particularly deep draft, the dropoff might not happen until somewhere in round 2.

There are very few drafts in which there's more than a handful of good players per round from the 3rd round on, and many years there's no one of any real consequence picked in the 3rd. In a shallow draft, even the 2nd round can be a wasteland.

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05-30-2011, 09:21 PM
  #128
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The percentage of players that succeed out of the third round is better off than 5,6 or 7. Plus it gives the scouts better opportunities to try and get the player they feel the club needs.

Let not forget about a young rookie who came out of the third round... McMillan is a good example of that. Vatanen was grabbed in the 4th also and while he hasn't played a game in north America yet, he holds a LOT of value. We haven't had any success in the late rounds for a while so I'd be 100% in for making a high risk pick or two.

And obviously I'm not saying my idea is a better one, it's just what I would do if I was in charge.

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05-30-2011, 10:02 PM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koffein View Post
I've been getting all of the draft guides from the draft guide thread for the past two seasons. McKeens is great so it's a shame it was canceled this year, but if you want the best value for the money you should definitely go with hockeyprospects guide, it's massive and well written. My personal favourite is Red Line Report, but it's a little pricey, only comes printed and looks like crap. Very interesting and entertaining though!
Yeah I was kind of leaning toward Red Line, but like you said it's a little expensive. If we had a better pick or if it were a stronger draft I might be more inclined to pay the 45 bucks. I actually like them printed (but an electronic version would be nice as a long-term reference).

I'd be curious to know more about the difference between the cheap ones (FC and HP). You said that hockey prospects is a good value. But how do you feel the 2 compare in terms of accuracy? Take last year's blurbs on Fowler, DSP, and Etem, for example. Which publication do you feel better predicted our prospects' skills and weaknesses? Is one guide better at say NA prospects vs international prospects?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerky Leclerc View Post
He sounds like a Finnish Corey Perry in 2003.
Now that you mention it, looking at the video, I can kind of see Perry too. Not quite as willing to go into dirty areas though.

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Old
05-30-2011, 11:13 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by wesott11 View Post
The percentage of players that succeed out of the third round is better off than 5,6 or 7.
"Better off" is relative. Bottom line, if one third rounder becomes a useful player out every 10 years or so, you're probably doing about average, because the hit rate is probably a little under 10%.

Just for kicks, here's the list of notables from a couple 3rd rounds:
2000: Mike Rupp, Kurt Sauer, Dominic Moore
2001: Tomas Plekanec, Craig Anderson, Patrick Sharp
2002: Matthew Lombardi, Valterri Filppula
2003: Alex Picard
2004: Brandon Prust, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen

Bottom line is, there's no such thing as a "safe pick" in the 3rd round ... they're essentially all longshots, and the historical data bears that out. Yeah, it's better than the rest of the rounds, but that's kind of like saying that Mike Ricci is better looking than Tim Hunter. Even if you spread the above players evenly across 12 teams, that's still more than half the league that comes away largely empty handed from the 3rd round over a 5 year span.

Quote:
Let not forget about a young rookie who came out of the third round... McMillan is a good example of that. Vatanen was grabbed in the 4th also and while he hasn't played a game in north America yet, he holds a LOT of value.
While both seem promising, it's way too early to make much of a call on those guys. McMillan has a lot to prove still, and Vatanen is still a ways off from even playing in the NHL, much less proving he can make a big impact.

Quote:
We haven't had any success in the late rounds for a while so I'd be 100% in for making a high risk pick or two.
We haven't had any late round success, but I don't necessarily think it's a strategic drafting problem ... it's because there simply aren't that many great late rounders to be had to begin with.

Seriously, when the hit rate is in the single digit percentage points, what's a "safe pick" as opposed to a "high risk" pick? They're all long shots to ever be quality NHLers.

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05-30-2011, 11:27 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesott11 View Post
The percentage of players that succeed out of the third round is better off than 5,6 or 7. Plus it gives the scouts better opportunities to try and get the player they feel the club needs.

Let not forget about a young rookie who came out of the third round... McMillan is a good example of that. Vatanen was grabbed in the 4th also and while he hasn't played a game in north America yet, he holds a LOT of value. We haven't had any success in the late rounds for a while so I'd be 100% in for making a high risk pick or two.

And obviously I'm not saying my idea is a better one, it's just what I would do if I was in charge.
The ones you mentioned were basically boom or bust picks though. I wouldn't have categorized either of them as a safe pick.

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05-30-2011, 11:36 PM
  #132
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If what you're saying is that from round 3-7, there is a minascule difference in chance that the pick will turn out. To me, a few extra %s hold plenty of value. I'm not one for researching at all but in those same years how did the other rounds look for players? I'm guessing the 6th and 7th rounds put out less success than the 3rd.

And honestly, if it didn't make a difference at all in-between rounds 3-7, there wouldn't be that much more value placed inbetween those picks.

And yeah it's honestly a crapshoot and there's a good chance the players won't turn out but that's where you have to rely on your scouts and hope that they do their homework on the player they want. Which is why the 3rd round pick is worth so much more. The scouts have an opportunity to pick the 4th player on their list instead of the 15th player they were looking at.

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Old
05-31-2011, 01:01 AM
  #133
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I am hoping the ducks get Brandon Saad.

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Old
05-31-2011, 10:03 AM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesott11 View Post
If what you're saying is that from round 3-7, there is a minascule difference in chance that the pick will turn out. To me, a few extra %s hold plenty of value. I'm not one for researching at all but in those same years how did the other rounds look for players? I'm guessing the 6th and 7th rounds put out less success than the 3rd.
Of course you're right, there's often only a handful of players who make it from those rounds COMBINED in any year. So you're probably talking about like 1-5% vs. 5-8%. In a sense, your chances double or triple or even quadruple in the 3rd round, as compared to the later rounds. That's why to trade up it takes multiple late rounders.

But I still find it hard to differentiate between "safe picks" vs. "high risk" in a round where the overall success rate is 10-12 meaningful players in 5 years, or to be terribly disappointed when a 3rd rounder doesn't pan out. And even if you could distinguish between the two types of prospects, the "safe pick" probably gets you a limited player like Kurt Sauer at best, and the "high risk" can get you a Filppula or a Sharp.

The reality is, anyone who's any sort of good bet to even make the NHL as a checker or depth defenseman is probably taken by round 2 most years.

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Old
05-31-2011, 10:11 AM
  #135
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Draft Game

hey everyone, I come in peace as a NYR fan. On our board we are doing a Mock Draft Game together and i picked the Ducks. I havent made any trades yet and still have the same team intact. I wanted to get an idea of what you guys are lookin for in the draft or any type of trade? Help me Help you haha.

I know you want to get rid of Blake, Selanne you want to keep, you need more offensive and defensive depth and a goalie right? Not sure if you need a goalie with Hiller but please let me know what you guys are thinking?

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05-31-2011, 11:00 AM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalfdiggity3 View Post
hey everyone, I come in peace as a NYR fan. On our board we are doing a Mock Draft Game together and i picked the Ducks. I havent made any trades yet and still have the same team intact. I wanted to get an idea of what you guys are lookin for in the draft or any type of trade? Help me Help you haha.

I know you want to get rid of Blake, Selanne you want to keep, you need more offensive and defensive depth and a goalie right? Not sure if you need a goalie with Hiller but please let me know what you guys are thinking?
G
We still hope for Hiller. Ofcourse it would be nice to get Tim Thomas or Pekka Rinne, but since that is not gonna happen, we`ll probably try to get rid of Ellis and sign Emery.
D
The D is pretty much set with 7 contracts already.
F
We would like to trade Blake, but that is pretty much unrealistic, or we just`ll get another bad contract. So that, with hopes for Teemu`s return leaves first 2 lines pretty much set.
With resigning some contracts we can set our 4th line.
So an upgrade would be needed only for 3d line C or RW if McMillion can upgrade his FO ability.

Good luck with game.

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05-31-2011, 11:17 AM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalvinators View Post
G
We still hope for Hiller. Ofcourse it would be nice to get Tim Thomas or Pekka Rinne, but since that is not gonna happen, we`ll probably try to get rid of Ellis and sign Emery.
D
The D is pretty much set with 7 contracts already.
F
We would like to trade Blake, but that is pretty much unrealistic, or we just`ll get another bad contract. So that, with hopes for Teemu`s return leaves first 2 lines pretty much set.
With resigning some contracts we can set our 4th line.
So an upgrade would be needed only for 3d line C or RW if McMillion can upgrade his FO ability.

Good luck with game.
Thanks that does help me some, also wondering..

What kind of players do you want or need in the system? I wont be taking a goalie in the 1st round and am actually hoping to make a deal for a young goalie with potential.

I see your defense is set but i think you can use an upgrade and a true defensive stopper as you have more PMD than anything else..

Offense you not sure if you need two way forwards, goal scorers, play makers, Centers.. wingers?

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05-31-2011, 11:47 AM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalfdiggity3 View Post
Thanks that does help me some, also wondering..

What kind of players do you want or need in the system? I wont be taking a goalie in the 1st round and am actually hoping to make a deal for a young goalie with potential.

I see your defense is set but i think you can use an upgrade and a true defensive stopper as you have more PMD than anything else..

Offense you not sure if you need two way forwards, goal scorers, play makers, Centers.. wingers?
We will either be taking a forward or a Goalie with the 1st, unless a defender slips in the draft. It would likely be a BPA type draft though, we have a wide variety of players in the system so there isn't a straight need except for another goalie at some point.

As for the defense there isn't much that needs to be done. We have 4 top4 D with Vis, Lydman, Beauch, Fowler and Vis-Lydman have already shown they are a top pair. Fowler plays better with a physical partner, but he had issues playing the right side last year. But with a full off season working on it i don't think that will be an issue next year. So Vis-Lydman, Beauch-Fowler, Sutton-Sbisa is a pretty solid D. The only real way to upgrade would be dealing Beauch for a shutdown guy, but i don't think there is much room to upgrade there for the $$.

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Old
05-31-2011, 12:02 PM
  #139
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Brandon Saad review

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Originally Posted by runaroundace View Post
I am hoping the ducks get Brandon Saad.
Did a bit of research on him (Brandon Saad). Not bad imo.
SAAD STATS

So, he won the West division with his Saginaw Spirit. Got to mention that West division also have teams like Spitfires and Whalers.

Saad was 5th best scorer (27+28=55 in 59G) in Spirit`s squad (3d best from wingers), so i`ll assume he plays in 2nd line. But scorers in front of him are also older. With 12 PPG (2nd on team) and 2 SHG (5th) looks like he can play in all situations. Oh, yeah, and he played only 59 games, and he is 4th on Saginaw in PPG (0.93)

Saad has been able to remain about tha same level of competitivness in all levels. In last 3 seasons he has played in NAHL, USHL and OHL, but has been able to remain about 1 PPG pace. He also have positive +/- in all three seasons (although it falls each year from 24-15-8). He also had about 0,8-0,9 PIM each game, exept in NAHL season.

PO.
Saginaw got past 1st round by eliminating our well known Guelph with Peter Holland 4-2, but were eliminated with our well known Windsor, in 2nd round 2-4. Ofcourse, with no Cam Fowler in Spitfires roster.

Saad played much better in PO, were 3nd on his team in scoring (3d also from wingers) . He was also the only one on the top 10 Spirits scorers with positive +/-. That makes me think, that his stats in regular season were ruined from adjusting to OHL from USHL, since it was his first season in OHL.


Brandon Saad (#22) compilation


PS
Researching Saad i found thois guy Josh Shalla, who remained undrafted last year. Maybe we can get him with another pick? He was Spirit`s best scorer both, in regular season and PO.
http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/show/id/313

PPS
His surname is a bit weird. Like DRIIIIIVE. He`s SAAD.
Actually don`t look so sad though.

PPPS
Interview with Brandon Saad from late january. HERE

PPPPS
I`m looking forward to do these kind of reviews with other pleyers we could potentially grab on draft. So i could post them here also, if there`s interest.

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05-31-2011, 12:13 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalfdiggity3 View Post
Thanks that does help me some, also wondering..

What kind of players do you want or need in the system? I wont be taking a goalie in the 1st round and am actually hoping to make a deal for a young goalie with potential.

I see your defense is set but i think you can use an upgrade and a true defensive stopper as you have more PMD than anything else..

Offense you not sure if you need two way forwards, goal scorers, play makers, Centers.. wingers?
Yeah, most likely we`ll draft F in first round. And will try to grab solid DD in only 2nd. just like we did with Clark. Although, if theres solid DD available, we should try to grab him.
Grabing goalie in 1st would be stupid, since a lot of 1st rounder goalies very often don`t make it to the top level, opposite of 2nd - 3d or even late rounders. So, i hope we pick some goalie with later pick.

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05-31-2011, 01:55 PM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalvinators View Post
Did a bit of research on him (Brandon Saad). Not bad imo.
SAAD STATS

So, he won the West division with his Saginaw Spirit. Got to mention that West division also have teams like Spitfires and Whalers.

Saad was 5th best scorer (27+28=55 in 59G) in Spirit`s squad (3d best from wingers), so i`ll assume he plays in 2nd line. But scorers in front of him are also older. With 12 PPG (2nd on team) and 2 SHG (5th) looks like he can play in all situations. Oh, yeah, and he played only 59 games, and he is 4th on Saginaw in PPG (0.93)

Saad has been able to remain about tha same level of competitivness in all levels. In last 3 seasons he has played in NAHL, USHL and OHL, but has been able to remain about 1 PPG pace. He also have positive +/- in all three seasons (although it falls each year from 24-15-8). He also had about 0,8-0,9 PIM each game, exept in NAHL season.

PO.
Saginaw got past 1st round by eliminating our well known Guelph with Peter Holland 4-2, but were eliminated with our well known Windsor, in 2nd round 2-4. Ofcourse, with no Cam Fowler in Spitfires roster.

Saad played much better in PO, were 3nd on his team in scoring (3d also from wingers) . He was also the only one on the top 10 Spirits scorers with positive +/-. That makes me think, that his stats in regular season were ruined from adjusting to OHL from USHL, since it was his first season in OHL.


Brandon Saad (#22) compilation


PS
Researching Saad i found thois guy Josh Shalla, who remained undrafted last year. Maybe we can get him with another pick? He was Spirit`s best scorer both, in regular season and PO.
http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/show/id/313

PPS
His surname is a bit weird. Like DRIIIIIVE. He`s SAAD.
Actually don`t look so sad though.

PPPS
Interview with Brandon Saad from late january. HERE

PPPPS
I`m looking forward to do these kind of reviews with other pleyers we could potentially grab on draft. So i could post them here also, if there`s interest.

Very cool, thanks! He is the guy I want the ducks to get. Although my opinion might change 5 more times before draft day.

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Old
05-31-2011, 04:50 PM
  #142
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If you could move up from the 22nd spot by trading Maroon or Deschamps to get the 18th and draft someone you really want. this is how the draft has played out so far..


Round 1:
#/Team/Name/Position/Junior Team/League
1. EDM - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/C/Red Deer/WHL
2. COL - Adam Larsson/D/Skelleftea/Elitserien
3. FLA - Jonathan Huberdeau/C/Saint John/QMJHL
4. NJ - Sean Couturier/C/Drummondville/QMJHL
5. NYI - Gabriel Landeskog/W/Kitchener/OHL
6. OTT - Ryan Strom/C/Niagara/OHL
7. ATL - Dougie Hamilton/D/Niagara/OHL
8. CBJ - Ryan Murphy/D/Kitchener/OHL
9. NYR (via BOS viaTOR) - Mika Zibenjad/C/Djurgårdens IF/Elitserien
10. MIN -
11. COL (via STL) -
12. CAR -
13. CGY -
14. DAL -
15. BOS -
16. BUF -
17. MTL -
18. CHI -
19. EDM (via LA) -
20. PHX -
21. OTT (via NSH) -
22. ANA -
23 .PIT -
24. DET -
25. TOR -
26. WSH -
27. TB -
28. SJ -
29. TOR (via BOS) -
30. VAN -

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05-31-2011, 05:36 PM
  #143
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Well just made a deal in the HF fan draft we are having on the Rangers page..

Hope you guys would like it in real life.. Let me know..

Ducks Trade:
22nd overall
65rd overall
83rd overall
Nicolas Deschamps

Blackhawks Trade:
18th overall
43rd overall
Marty Turco's Rights

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Old
05-31-2011, 05:41 PM
  #144
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I don't want Turco mentioned even in hypothetical trades.

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05-31-2011, 05:54 PM
  #145
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I don't want Turco mentioned even in hypothetical trades.
I agree. Turco is , in lack of a better term, a waste on this team. Terrible trade.

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05-31-2011, 05:58 PM
  #146
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I agree. Turco is , in lack of a better term, a waste on this team. Terrible trade.
Well atleast gotta look at the deal as he can be the backup goalie, while i moved u guys up from 22nd to 18th and got the 43rd pick for the two thirds(65th and 83rd)

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05-31-2011, 06:01 PM
  #147
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Im being offered Greg Neimsz for the 53rd pick in the draft.. what do you guys think?

Also being offered the rights of Pitkanen/Jussi Jokinen and the 12th pick for Selanne and the 53rd pick

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05-31-2011, 06:03 PM
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chalfdiggity3 View Post
Well atleast gotta look at the deal as he can be the backup goalie, while i moved u guys up from 22nd to 18th and got the 43rd pick for the two thirds(65th and 83rd)
Still not worth it from our perspective.

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Old
05-31-2011, 06:05 PM
  #149
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You can't trade Selanne even...EVER!

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Old
05-31-2011, 06:09 PM
  #150
Chalfdiggity3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazy View Post
You can't trade Selanne even...EVER!
okay okay.. even if i was being offered Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen, and the Justin Peters?

for Selanne, Turco, and a 2nd round pick?

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