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ATD2011 Milt Dunnell Cup Final: Regina Pats vs. Ottawa Senators

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Old
05-25-2011, 08:49 PM
  #1
Velociraptor
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ATD2011 Milt Dunnell Cup Final: Regina Pats vs. Ottawa Senators


special teams (so far):

PP1: Bucyk-Messier-Selanne-Clancy-Day
PP2: Adams-Turgeon-Cashman-Neilson-Redden
PK1: Messier-Nevin-Neilson-Day
PK2: Bridgman-Oliver-Watson-Reise

vs.

Ottawa Senators



Coach: Dick Irvin Sr
Captain: Eddie Gerard
Alternates: Jaromir Jagr and Bill Hay at home, Johnny Gottselig and Dan Bain on the road.

Doug Bentley
- Henrik Zetterberg - Jaromir Jagr
Johnny Gottselig - Mike Modano - Claude Provost
Rick Nash - Dan Bain - Paul Henderson
Camille Henry - Bill "Red" Hay - Jim Peplinski
Martin Straka, Art Gagne

Eddie Gerard - Chris Pronger
Gary Bergman - Joe Simpson
Alexei Gusarov - Kjell Samuelsson
Pekka Rautakillio, Adrian Aucoin

Curtis Joseph
Vladimir Dzurilla

Even strength roles:

2nd line gets tough matchups
Other 3 lines are balanced.
3rd line w/Nash goes against power RWs.
Jagr gets double shifted/long shifts where possible in offensive zone.

Pronger-Gerard get big minutes, all situations, tough matchups
Bergman-Simpson get a more offensive role
Gusarov-Samuelsson get a more defensive role

Power play options

Core forwards: Henry around the net, Jagr on the right half boards.
Other forwards: Modano, Bain, Zetterberg, Nash, Bentley

Point: Simpson, Pronger, Bentley, Gerard (mostly first 3, and Bentley may also play up front with Gerard replacing him)

Modano - Henry - Jagr
Bentley - Simpson

Nash - Bain - Zetterberg
Pronger - Gerard

or

Bentley - Henry - Jagr
Pronger - Simpson

Nash - Modano - Bain
Gerard - Simpson/Zetterberg

In any case the power play runs through Jagr, with Henry finding space around the net to score goals.

Penalty kill units

Provost - Zetterberg
Pronger - Gerard

Gottselig - Hay
Gusarov - Samuelsson

Nash - Modano
Bergman

...with Jagr's line up next.

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05-25-2011, 10:48 PM
  #2
VanIslander
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Tony O vs. Cujo for the cup!

Two fantastic coaches.

An interesting match-up. Clutch performers on both sides.

Pronger vs. Messier would be worth the price of admission. Strength and cheapshots galore.

Here's hoping McCabe and Aucoin see no ice time.

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05-26-2011, 06:48 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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And the "need a good coach, not a good goalie" trend of the ATD continues!

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05-26-2011, 06:53 AM
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Looking forward to a good series, 70s. Is this the first time the Pats have made the finals?

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05-26-2011, 06:55 AM
  #5
overpass
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Ottawa Senators matchup focus

Stop Bucyk-Messier-Selanne. Gerard-Pronger is the primary counter to them. Gottselig-Modano-Provost is the preferred forward matchup against them.

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05-26-2011, 07:36 AM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
And the "need a good coach, not a good goalie" trend of the ATD continues!
I'm never taking a top 20 goalie again, that's for sure.

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05-26-2011, 08:17 AM
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I'm never taking a top 20 goalie again, that's for sure.
Agreed.

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Old
05-26-2011, 09:07 AM
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So do we think anyone got helped more by the 2010-11 season than seventies did with Selanne? He pretty much solidified himself as a top 100 player ever, giving seventies maybe the best first line in the draft(not that it wasn't beast before, just didn't really think about it til after the season ha.)

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05-26-2011, 10:09 AM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Looking forward to a good series, 70s. Is this the first time the Pats have made the finals?
Indeed it is.

You know, I was wondering if anything was going to change in my life, but here I am, at work as usual. It turns out I still have to go - can you believe it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneberg View Post
I'm never taking a top 20 goalie again, that's for sure.
Hey! I have a top-20 goalie.

The key, as with a lot of positions, is to just get good value on your goalie. I think both teams did. And by waiting on the goalie a few rounds longer, we were able to get stronger in other areas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
So do we think anyone got helped more by the 2010-11 season than seventies did with Selanne? He pretty much solidified himself as a top 100 player ever, giving seventies maybe the best first line in the draft(not that it wasn't beast before, just didn't really think about it til after the season ha.)
Haha... in fairness, Selanne was already 2/3 through this outstanding season when I took him in February so his standing was pretty solidified. In retrospect, getting him in the 130s was an incredible steal, although at the time I only saw it as "good value".

Every year since the lockout I keep expecting Selanne no drop off mid-season or to finally show his age and peter out... I admit, this was another one of those years. But he got even better towards the end. And saved his best for the playoffs. I'm really impressed with the guy.

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05-26-2011, 01:34 PM
  #10
Stoneberg
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Hey! I have a top-20 goalie.

The key, as with a lot of positions, is to just get good value on your goalie. I think both teams did. And by waiting on the goalie a few rounds longer, we were able to get stronger in other areas.
I knew I should have included "unless one falls to me at good value" because I had a feeling this may come.

Of course I agree Tony O is top 20, took me to the conference finals last year and I got hime even later than you did this time!

It just seems that having a better goalie than your opponent is not as big a factor in the voting as few (like myself) think it is, so it'll be my own personal strategy to not bother taking one before round 10 anymore.

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05-26-2011, 02:43 PM
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seventieslord
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Home Ice:

I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage. here's what I do know:

- Regina was 1st in their conference in regular season points.
- Ottawa was 2nd in their conference in regular season points (behind NJ)
- Regina's point total was apparently 137 out of a possible 192
- Ottawa's point total, as compiled by me, was 121 out of a possible 155.

I had 31 sets of votes and I used a 5-4-3-2-1 system to assign regular season point totals. So the average points per team was 93.

Stoneberg used a system that was out of 6 points and had 32 sets of votes, hence the 192 max. You would think that this means I could just knock 32 points off all those totals to have an apples-to-apples comparison to the other conference. However, I'm not sure that math checks out either, because even with the highest point total in the conference, I would have had just 105 points and only one other would have 100. The top point totals in the other conference were 133.5, 121, 119.5, 114.5, 113, and 106, so it's really unlikely that 6 teams would have had more than the highest total on the other side.

If anyone can try to make sense of this, please feel free.

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05-26-2011, 03:11 PM
  #12
Hawkey Town 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Home Ice:

I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage. here's what I do know:

- Regina was 1st in their conference in regular season points.
- Ottawa was 2nd in their conference in regular season points (behind NJ)
- Regina's point total was apparently 137 out of a possible 192
- Ottawa's point total, as compiled by me, was 121 out of a possible 155.

I had 31 sets of votes and I used a 5-4-3-2-1 system to assign regular season point totals. So the average points per team was 93.

Stoneberg used a system that was out of 6 points and had 32 sets of votes, hence the 192 max. You would think that this means I could just knock 32 points off all those totals to have an apples-to-apples comparison to the other conference. However, I'm not sure that math checks out either, because even with the highest point total in the conference, I would have had just 105 points and only one other would have 100. The top point totals in the other conference were 133.5, 121, 119.5, 114.5, 113, and 106, so it's really unlikely that 6 teams would have had more than the highest total on the other side.

If anyone can try to make sense of this, please feel free.
Something is off. Why not just release the results, eliminate same finishes, and compare?

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05-26-2011, 03:13 PM
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Dreakmur
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Home Ice:

I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage. here's what I do know:

- Regina was 1st in their conference in regular season points.
- Ottawa was 2nd in their conference in regular season points (behind NJ)
- Regina's point total was apparently 137 out of a possible 192
- Ottawa's point total, as compiled by me, was 121 out of a possible 155.

I had 31 sets of votes and I used a 5-4-3-2-1 system to assign regular season point totals. So the average points per team was 93.

Stoneberg used a system that was out of 6 points and had 32 sets of votes, hence the 192 max. You would think that this means I could just knock 32 points off all those totals to have an apples-to-apples comparison to the other conference. However, I'm not sure that math checks out either, because even with the highest point total in the conference, I would have had just 105 points and only one other would have 100. The top point totals in the other conference were 133.5, 121, 119.5, 114.5, 113, and 106, so it's really unlikely that 6 teams would have had more than the highest total on the other side.

If anyone can try to make sense of this, please feel free.
I would just go by who earned the highest percentage of possible points. Regina earned 71% of their possible 192, and Ottawa earned 78% of their possible 155.

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05-26-2011, 03:17 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneberg View Post
I knew I should have included "unless one falls to me at good value" because I had a feeling this may come.

Of course I agree Tony O is top 20, took me to the conference finals last year and I got hime even later than you did this time!

It just seems that having a better goalie than your opponent is not as big a factor in the voting as few (like myself) think it is, so it'll be my own personal strategy to not bother taking one before round 10 anymore.
I'm with you - I value goaltenders (and coaching) quite a bit, myself.

Apparently we were in the minority this time around, though.

No one can make more of an overall difference in a team than those two.

A good goalie can cover up a lot of mistakes and warts playing the whole 60 minutes and a good coach can raise a whole team up by getting players to buy into an appropriate gameplan that maximizes their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.

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05-26-2011, 03:21 PM
  #15
Hawkey Town 18
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Was Stoneberg's system just 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or was it something else?

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05-26-2011, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Home Ice:

I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage.
If in the future a Presidents' Trophy ranking of divisional winners is done at regular season's end, then home ice advantage could be decided accordingly. For instance, if a number two seed from one division meets a number two seed from another division in the conference semifinals, final or cup final then whichever divisional number one seed had been ranked higher will determine home ice advantage. It assumes there isn't a great disparity between seeds within a division (ie. one division having a great number one and then a drop off to number two whereas another division having a close race for number one) but it's a better method than one of the NHL's ideas to have all-star games determine conference home ice advantage and no worse than trying to compare voting points between conferences (which itself assumes one conference isn't inherently more competitive than another).

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05-26-2011, 03:51 PM
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Hawkey Town 18
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I'm with you - I value goaltenders (and coaching) quite a bit, myself.

Apparently we were in the minority this time around, though.

No one can make more of an overall difference in a team than those two.

A good goalie can cover up a lot of mistakes and warts playing the whole 60 minutes and a good coach can raise a whole team up by getting players to buy into an appropriate gameplan that maximizes their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.
One of the main problems with goalies is that it is a one player position, so relatively teams are going to be much closer than when looking at other team aspects like forwards or defensemen.

Imagine if every team just drafted one defenseman and that's all you had to go off of when comparing teams. There is no goalie equivalent to Orr, so let's pretend he doesn't exist. How would it look? The top 5 or so guys would be given a little extra credit, but how much weight would you give the difference between Chris Chelios and Mark Howe when you can look at 4 different forward lines with 3 players each. There's way more room for analysis and disparity when looking at the forwards, so you would naturally put more weight on them than the one player D.

Another problem is that it's seems to be tough to think of some of these goalies as being "bad" or worst in the league when you know they have the capability to single handidly steal a series. Probably every goalie in the ATD has done it, just the best did it more often.

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05-26-2011, 05:23 PM
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Couple of points before I dive into the series.

First, I wouldn't write off top goalies so quickly. Just two drafts ago, in ATD12, several teams with first round goalies went a long way, and Terry Sawchuk won it.

IMO the differences between goaltenders are not that large once you get past the elite. But if you disagree, make the case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Home Ice:

I can't say 100% for sure which team has home ice advantage. here's what I do know:

- Regina was 1st in their conference in regular season points.
- Ottawa was 2nd in their conference in regular season points (behind NJ)
- Regina's point total was apparently 137 out of a possible 192
- Ottawa's point total, as compiled by me, was 121 out of a possible 155.

I had 31 sets of votes and I used a 5-4-3-2-1 system to assign regular season point totals. So the average points per team was 93.

Stoneberg used a system that was out of 6 points and had 32 sets of votes, hence the 192 max. You would think that this means I could just knock 32 points off all those totals to have an apples-to-apples comparison to the other conference. However, I'm not sure that math checks out either, because even with the highest point total in the conference, I would have had just 105 points and only one other would have 100. The top point totals in the other conference were 133.5, 121, 119.5, 114.5, 113, and 106, so it's really unlikely that 6 teams would have had more than the highest total on the other side.

If anyone can try to make sense of this, please feel free.
Hard to say without knowing Stoneberg's system. It's possible that one system holds down point totals.

It's also possible that one conference had a wider spread in team "strength" (or voter opinion) than the other.

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05-26-2011, 05:28 PM
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Another problem is that it's seems to be tough to think of some of these goalies as being "bad" or worst in the league when you know they have the capability to single handidly steal a series. Probably every goalie in the ATD has done it, just the best did it more often.
That proves my point exactly.

They can make a huge difference in any game (and therefore any series) more singlehanded than any other player.

So if you have one of those guys who did it more often it should carry some weight.

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05-26-2011, 05:43 PM
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seventieslord
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Something is off. Why not just release the results, eliminate same finishes, and compare?
We don't have the results for my conferences at this point - only the totals. Stoneberg did them at a cousin's house and I'm pretty sure they are now erased. He left the file there and he just got the results by phone on a need-to-know basis during the divisional finals. So I know just those 8 teams' point totals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I would just go by who earned the highest percentage of possible points. Regina earned 71% of their possible 192, and Ottawa earned 78% of their possible 155.
If Stoneberg's system was 6-5-4-3-2, for example, then a 2nd place vote would be an 83% share as opposed to 80% in a 5-4-3-2-1 system. It would be inherently biased to one conference.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I'm with you - I value goaltenders (and coaching) quite a bit, myself.

Apparently we were in the minority this time around, though.

No one can make more of an overall difference in a team than those two.

A good goalie can cover up a lot of mistakes and warts playing the whole 60 minutes and a good coach can raise a whole team up by getting players to buy into an appropriate gameplan that maximizes their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.
Goalies can make a big difference. They also might not. Recently there have been plenty of goalies who wouldn't make anyone's top-10 list, getting deep in the playoffs, and even teams advancing deep despite mediocre goaltending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyD View Post
Was Stoneberg's system just 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or was it something else?
That would be my best guess, but as I said, that math doesn't really check out... unless... (see below)

Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
(which itself assumes one conference isn't inherently more competitive than another).
If the conferences were split up 20/20 randomly, it's highly unlikely that there can be that much of a difference between the two. A statistician could tell you for sure, but I know it would be very remote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
It's also possible that one conference had a wider spread in team "strength" (or voter opinion) than the other.
That is more plausible than the above. Again though, I think it's unlikely that the differences would be that drastic. But they could be.

I'm hoping Stoneberg could come in and explain for certain what he used for a points system. Even though this isn't incredibly important.

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05-26-2011, 06:49 PM
  #21
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Congrats to both teams on making it to the finals, looking forward to a good series.

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05-26-2011, 07:49 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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I don't think it's necessarily a given that Tony O is top 20.

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05-26-2011, 08:40 PM
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That proves my point exactly.

They can make a huge difference in any game (and therefore any series) more singlehanded than any other player.

So if you have one of those guys who did it more often it should carry some weight.
My thing with the goalies is that I don't think there's much difference between the 10th best and the 18th best. After the Belfour/Gardiner/Vezina* group goes, there is a fairly steep drop IMO. Obviously others don't agree.

*I think he should be included now

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05-26-2011, 11:26 PM
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seventieslord
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I don't think it's necessarily a given that Tony O is top 20.
It should be a given.

In point form:

- A regular season resume of team accomplishments that would serve as a reasonable facsimile to Martin Brodeur's (i.e. top-2 in wins, shutouts, GAA)
- The 2nd-most durable goaltender of the 2-goalie era, after Brodeur
- 5 all-star teams, exceeded by only 9 goalies since 1931
- 3 1st all-star teams, exceeded by only 5 goalies since 1931
- An overall all-star/Vezina voting record exceeded in weight by perhaps three goalies post-expansion
- A hart voting record exceeded by just three goalies post-expansion, and five goalies since 1924
- A career regular season save% record that, when compared to the league average throughout his career, is 4th-best post-expansion, after Hasek, Dryden & Parent
- A 5-year peak sv% that, when compared to the league average during that time, is 3rd-best post-expansion, after Hasek & Roy
- A "with or without you" score in his 12-year prime, right in the realm of Parent, Roy, Dryden, Brodeur, and Plante, with only Hasek significantly ahead

Not a single one of these things constitutes a top-10 goalie, or even a top-20 goalie. All of them combined, on the other hand... well, it gets pretty impossible to keep the guy out of the top-20, or even top-15.

14th-16th is what I claimed when I took him.

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05-26-2011, 11:58 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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I think the case for Tony O in the top 18 is very flimsy. He's 19-24 in my book.

I mean, in the last series, you had Tony O very slightly behind Belfour, which I think is fair, but how high do you have Belfour?

Bernie Parent is 10th at best (I have him 11th), and he was without a doubt better than Tony O.


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