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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VIII

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Old
03-14-2011, 12:30 PM
  #176
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Very interesting that Berenson is able to play the point on the PP, will take that into consideration. I also like having three players on my 3rd line who are able to take draws.

Regarding the West MVP. I am aware of those circumstances, but did post this interesting quote from Scotty Bowman who seemed to love Berenson.

-Scotty Bowman, general manager of the Blues said he wouldn’t of traded Berenson even-up for Boston Center Phil Esposito at this time a year ago (1970) Eliminates some of the "West Division" arguement.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...berenson&hl=en

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03-14-2011, 12:52 PM
  #177
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
so he played before 1950, then?
Just for that, Paul Thompson is gonna light you guys up when we face each other

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03-14-2011, 01:14 PM
  #178
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What do we know specifically about Lehman's playoff issues? We know that his teams went to the finals four times and won once, but that's no different from Harry Lumley.
I was reading about the 1918 Cup finals a couple of drafts ago to research Alf Skinner. Skinner's winning goal in Game 5 was a weak one, a long lifted shot from near centre ice, IIRC.

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03-14-2011, 01:24 PM
  #179
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Lehman was an 11-time 1st team all-star in the PCHA who won six PCHA championships (a playoff win-loss record of 9-4, pretty standard ratio in hockey history among greats) and one Stanley Cup. He backstopped his team to 7 Stanley Cup playoffs (a staggering 27 Stanley Cup games, given the era - an accomplishment in itself, being so consistently the starter on a team that went to the big contest). He won Lord Stanley's cup in his prime, at age 29, and lost it once earlier and later when he was 32, 35, 36, 37, 38. He played for 22 years. Yes, he "only" won 10 Stanley Cup challenge games in 27 attempts, but it could be said that the TEAM failed to win, as it was often against NHL teams. In 1918 he backstopped Vancouver to two wins in 5 games against Toronto; in 1921 he backstopped Van to 2 wins in 5 games against Ottawa; the next year in 1922 he again backstopped Van to 2 wins in 5 games against Toronto. I would love to read newspaper accounts of these playoffs to find out if Lehman's goaltending was the difference in the close 5-game series. Lehman was a winner time and again and certainly ought to be nothing but praised in regular season play. For sure, if there was any discrepancy in the level of play of the PCHA and the early NHL then how can you hold one player accountable, especially when he was in his mid-thirties in those contests?

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03-14-2011, 01:41 PM
  #180
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Well done. You have just demonstrated how close they actually were offensively at even strength. Balon peaked a little higher as a goalscorer, but Nevin had a longer peak and was a somewhat better playmaker (though he wasn't that great a playmaker, himself). I don't think Nevin's production in his "lesser years" makes much difference here. You don't draft Bob Nevin for the time he spent in Los Angeles, but that is exactly what a large part of your earlier analysis (and my frustration) depended upon (three of Nevin's seven scoring finishes above your magical 47 point barrier were in LA, and were not significant scoring numbers for the time).
The "magical" 47-point barrier was established by the 3rd-best point total of Balon's career, with the better two coming post-expansion, just like Nevin's, including a 72-point season in his late 30s, which IS significant.

The only way that they are "close" offensively at even strength, is if you completely cut off all but their three best years. this completely fails to penalize Balon for the fact that he was, for lack of a better term, useless offensively aside from a few years. By not penalizing him, you're penalizing Nevin for playing much longer and still scoring more per game and much more overall. Longevity, durability and consistency in a career translates to the same in an ATD season. But yeah, I get it - why would you penalize your own player?

You draft a player for his whole career, and what you get is going to be a spattering of what they did during their career. You might want to believe, for the purposes of this comparison, that only their three best seasons mean anything. The only person who would look at it that way, is the GM who owns Dave Balon. I don't think we need to include the lowest of the lows, but if one guy had seven good seasons and another three, it should matter little that the three that he did have, were comparable to the other guy's three best. he's not close. I could give you plenty of examples of this.

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I find your movement towards career numbers as an important criteria when evaluating ATD players in general quite...troubling. Most of the time you sound like you're making hall of fame arguments. Are we really drafting these players for what they did in their 10th best seasons? I understand that consistency is important and do not believe that only a player's absolute peak should be considered when making evaluations, but I am still mostly interested in peak - its quality, consistency and duration - not the seasons on either end of it. You seem to have been slowly moving away from this method - toward favoring players who were less valuable at their peaks, but rather very good for a long time. I recall your pimping of Syd Howe and Dean Prentice in past drafts, and now we have John Bucyk and Bob Nevin.
Right - this, after I just stated that I have never used career numbers to prove anyone is better than anyone else. Nice one.

You say you're most interested in peak - that much is clear. You say that consistency is important too, but your slanted views on these two players indicates otherwise. No, we don't "draft players for what they did in their 10th-best seasons" - but those 10th-best seasons did happen, and when it comes time to compare Bob Nevin and Dave Balon, it is absolutely relevant to mention that in Nevin's 10th-best season he was 43rd in scoring, and that in Balon's he was 94th.

I never cited career totals in this discussion - though they are relevant, as the players were born within a year of eachother. I could have started with those, but the natural response to that would be, "well, Nevin played forever, so how is that fair?" - I went straight to career averages. Like seriously, if you won't accept that it is impressive to average more per game (both pre- and post-expansion) despite playing in a lot more games, can you say you're objective about these two players?

Honestly, it sounds like you want to use "career numbers" (which I agree are usually crap) as a strawman for consistency and longevity (which are never crap), not to mention just being better on a per-game basis. If a player had a dozen good years, we should always appreciate that he did.

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I dunno, seventies...I value consistency, as well, but at what point do we hit diminishing returns? At what point does consistency turn from setting a floor against bad play to setting a ceiling against great play? I think we have some fundamental philosophical differences here, and while you may think I hard sell some players, I find your assumption of correctness as to the standards we all should use in evaluating players at times rather arrogant.
Hey, it's not like I don't back it up. Anyone's methodology should be scrutinized and anyone whose methodology is being scrutinzed should demonstrate its worth.

You do hard sell players - a lot. I mostly stayed quiet on Tom Barrasso/Ed Belfour as a courtesy to you.

The only reason I may appear arrogant at this moment, is because literally EVERY method that any experienced ATD GM would use to judge offensive value in the ATD, points to Nevin being a better overall producer than Balon. I just don't see that you have a leg to stand on there. I can afford to be arrogant on that one.

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Comparing Nevin and Balon defensively is hard because they played different defensive roles. There is a general point here that needs to be made about special teams roles in the O6 and expansion eras - something maybe a lot of posters here don't know. Roles were actually much more commonly split in this era. It was quite normal for a player to have responsibilities at even strength that did not carry over into his special teams roles. This era was, in many ways, actually more specialized than modern day hockey, I think in large part because it was commonplace for teams to have as many checking forwards and defensive defensemen as they could possibly want (due to the small number of teams in the league, there were always plenty of this type of player available in the minors), and the best defensive forwards were often spared penalty killing duties for this reason. This started to change in the mid-70's.

Henri Richard and Norm Ullman are probably the best examples of this phenomenon. Both were great two-way players at even strength, and both were barely used as penalty-killers during their primes because it was considered a waste to wear out such great players with penalty killing duties when plugger_x and plugger_y could go in and skate themselves to death for a couple of minutes on the PK and do nearly as good a job as the star, who would then be there to take the first faceoff at even strength. It's unfortunate that we don't have special teams icetime numbers from most of the O6 era because they would shock a lot of people. Stars were simply not often used as penalty killers.
I'm aware of this, but you're right that many people may not think about. Gordie Howe seems to be the only star forward that killed a lot of penalties regularly.

Still, penalty killing is an important component of a player's defensive responsibility - probably about half.

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Why is this important to us? Well, because the Bulldog Line falls into this same category for the period in which Balon and Nevin played together in New York. The Rangers coach at the time stacked the Bulldog Line with his best two-way players at even strength, and filled his penalty kill mostly with pluggers. I believe the leading Rangers forward in PK minutes during the relevant period is actually Glen Sather (yeah...the player, who I don't think anyone is going to draft). Now, Bob Nevin was no plugger, but he was getting very light checking duty at even-strength, which is probably why his coach considered it acceptable to use Nevin on the PK.

This all fits into another general problem I have with your use of statistics lately - that being your use of PK icetime as a standard for judging a player's defensive value. This is a reasonable enough standard for modern players, but you seem to apply it equally to the late O6 and expansion eras, and it is simply not appropriate in that context. Nevin's heavy PK icetime was actually something of a stigma in his New York days. Now, I'm not really sure why Nevin wasn't the right wing on the Bulldog Line. He was definitely a better even strength two-way player than the actual right wing of the line, though that guy was an excellent checker.
It was probably just a case of not "loading up" on one line. I think doing so generally gives you diminishing returns compared to putting two of your best on one line, and the other one somewhere else - both offensively and defensively.

As for the use of PK stats, you are misrepresenting my position here. I said myself, that I agree penalty killing is just one component of a player's defensive responsibility, and sometime within the past two weeks I pointed out to LF or BW that I thought he was overusing PK TOI as a proxy for defensive ability. I even said in this very conversation, "penalty killing isn't the sole indicator of defensive ability, but it is a big one." - I stand by that.

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At any rate, though, PK icetime for players in this period is a terrible indicator of actual defensive value (I have seen you calling a somewhat fringe player of this time one of the greatest defensive forwards in history because of his inordinate PK icetime) and cannot be taken at anything close to modern face value.
Yes, I was most likely mistaken about that player.

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Balon was used as a top even-strength checker everywhere he played in his career. In Montreal, he was the left wing of the Henri Richard line and in New York on the Bulldog Line. I can't say for sure what his role was in Minnesota, but at any rate, Balon's even-strength offense was compiled in a primarily checking role. The same is not true of Bob Nevin at least in New York and for the expansion teams; I can't say how he was used in Toronto. The point here should be obvious. Nevin has more value than Balon as a penalty killer (because he was actually used in that role), but Balon had much greater defensive responsibilities at even strength, which must be taken into account when we compare their production.
Back to offense for a sec - your last statement can easily be turned around on you - considering Henri Richard is no slouch himself, and was possibly the best ES producer of his time, Balon's Montreal numbers look even more mediocre than they are on the surface.

And really, you have to be referring only to 1964 and 1965, because there's no way someone plays with Henri all year and scores 29 points - as he did in 93 games in 1966 and 1967- right? So he spent two years as a "top checker" in Montreal, and then a couple in New York, and in that specific circumstance he proved to be a very good even strength producer, Aside from that, he has a season as a mediocre scorer (though close to the team lead) on a bad expansion team, and then a bunch of years as basically a depth player.

So no, I am not sold that he really had more defensive responsibility at even strength when full careers are considered. Nevin was on LA when the scouting report wrote that he was "always assigned to the opposition's most dangerous scorer". They obviously aren't just referring to penalty killing there. That's in addition to all the other glowing praise they threw in, and his longtime coach dubbing him the league's best two-way player. If Balon was a better two-way player in New York, that coach could have said that he was the best two-way player in the league, no? But he singled out Nevin. If Balon was that good defensively, it's likely that it would have been focused on a lot more in those books as well.

You are likely underrating Nevin's time in New York, and you are definitely underestimating his defensive resume from before and after.

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Old
03-14-2011, 01:44 PM
  #181
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I was reading about the 1918 Cup finals a couple of drafts ago to research Alf Skinner. Skinner's winning goal in Game 5 was a weak one, a long lifted shot from near centre ice, IIRC.
*insert "see, he was just like Tony Esposito" remark here*


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03-14-2011, 02:36 PM
  #182
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Gary Dornhoefer, RW

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Old
03-14-2011, 03:13 PM
  #183
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*insert "see, he was just like Tony Esposito" remark here*

i think whenever you are in the company of Dan Cloutier, it's not good for you .

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03-14-2011, 03:14 PM
  #184
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Regarding the West MVP. I am aware of those circumstances, but did post this interesting quote from Scotty Bowman who seemed to love Berenson.

-Scotty Bowman, general manager of the Blues said he wouldn’t of traded Berenson even-up for Boston Center Phil Esposito at this time a year ago (1970) Eliminates some of the "West Division" arguement.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...berenson&hl=en
I don't know what this is proof of other than the fact that maybe it shouldn't have been surprising that Scottie ended up making a terrible GM.


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Lehman was an 11-time 1st team all-star in the PCHA who won six PCHA championships (a playoff win-loss record of 9-4, pretty standard ratio in hockey history among greats) and one Stanley Cup. He backstopped his team to 7 Stanley Cup playoffs (a staggering 27 Stanley Cup games, given the era - an accomplishment in itself, being so consistently the starter on a team that went to the big contest). He won Lord Stanley's cup in his prime, at age 29, and lost it once earlier and later when he was 32, 35, 36, 37, 38. He played for 22 years. Yes, he "only" won 10 Stanley Cup challenge games in 27 attempts, but it could be said that the TEAM failed to win, as it was often against NHL teams. In 1918 he backstopped Vancouver to two wins in 5 games against Toronto; in 1921 he backstopped Van to 2 wins in 5 games against Ottawa; the next year in 1922 he again backstopped Van to 2 wins in 5 games against Toronto. I would love to read newspaper accounts of these playoffs to find out if Lehman's goaltending was the difference in the close 5-game series. Lehman was a winner time and again and certainly ought to be nothing but praised in regular season play. For sure, if there was any discrepancy in the level of play of the PCHA and the early NHL then how can you hold one player accountable, especially when he was in his mid-thirties in those contests?
Yes, I would love to read those newspaper accounts too! Why don't you find some? I really do think we could be drastically underrating Lehman, but right now we just don't have enough evidence to raise his stock as far as might be deserved.

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03-14-2011, 03:24 PM
  #185
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03-14-2011, 03:24 PM
  #186
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This all fits into another general problem I have with your use of statistics lately - that being your use of PK icetime as a standard for judging a player's defensive value. This is a reasonable enough standard for modern players, but you seem to apply it equally to the late O6 and expansion eras, and it is simply not appropriate in that context. Nevin's heavy PK icetime was actually something of a stigma in his New York days. Now, I'm not really sure why Nevin wasn't the right wing on the Bulldog Line. He was definitely a better even strength two-way player than the actual right wing of the line, though that guy was an excellent checker.
I'm going to stay out of the main argument here, other than saying that you probably shouldn't have been surprised when asked to backup a statement that goes against general ATD canon (namely that Nevin is always drafted well before Balon).

However, I do want to add something to this particular point. I think ice time stats are a valuable tool in general, but GMs here do sometimes misuse them.

Penalty killing ice time is a big one. I'm just waiting for overpass to use Zetterberg on the PK and several GMs to be all "how can he penalty kill here when stats show he barely PKs in real life?" Which of course, completely ignores the fact that the reason he doesn't PK in the regular season much is so that he can play more at even strength, where the gap between him and a replacement is much less than on the penalty kill. It also ignores the fact that anyone who wasn't completely blacked out during the 2008 and 2009 playoffs knows that whenever there was a big penalty to be killed, Zetterberg was the first choice and did an amazing job.

I see it sometimes with TOI stats for defensemen. Scott Niedermayer had more ATOI than Scott Stevens, but everyone knows who the Devils' better defenseman was and that Stevens was matched strictly against top lines and used excessively on the PK, while Niedermayer played much softer minutes.

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03-14-2011, 03:24 PM
  #187
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I don't know what this is proof of other than the fact that maybe it shouldn't have been surprising that Scottie ended up making a terrible GM.
I'm curious. What made him terrible?

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03-14-2011, 03:25 PM
  #188
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I'm curious. What made him terrible?
I'm speaking of his Buffalo tenure, when he was generally considered a big failure. I don't have the desire to search for the full story, but it won't be hard to find.

Basically, Bowman's famous impatience and stubbornness served him extremely well as coach, not so well as GM.

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03-14-2011, 03:29 PM
  #189
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I don't know what this is proof of other than the fact that maybe it shouldn't have been surprising that Scottie ended up making a terrible GM.


.
The quote was more or less another bonus for Berenson, im sure if anybody found a quote like that regarding their player they'd post it. Im not trying to sell Berenson that high by any means. Bowman was also his head coach, so this quote has some merit.

I do however beleive he has one of the higher peaks for a two-way 3rd liner.

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03-14-2011, 03:32 PM
  #190
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I'm speaking of his Buffalo tenure, when he was generally considered a big failure. I don't have the desire to search for the full story, but it won't be hard to find.

Basically, Bowman's famous impatience and stubbornness served him extremely well as coach, not so well as GM.
He took over a aging Buffalo and semi-started a rebuild. Missed the playoff once. Hardly a terrible job.

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03-14-2011, 03:33 PM
  #191
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The quote was more or less another bonus for Berenson, im sure if anybody found a quote like that regarding their player they'd post it. Im not trying to sell Berenson that high by any means. Bowman was also his head coach, so this quote has some merit.

I do however beleive he has one of the higher peaks for a two-way 3rd liner.
Oh of course. I'd probably post it too. But I don't think it means all that much.

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03-14-2011, 03:36 PM
  #192
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He took over a aging Buffalo and semi-started a rebuild. Missed the playoff once. Hardly a terrible job.
Heh, he really wasn't that bad. More along the lines of he didn't quite meet expectations, since he was such an amazing coach.

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03-14-2011, 03:43 PM
  #193
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Heh, he really wasn't that bad. More along the lines of he didn't quite meet expectations, since he was such an amazing coach.
I'm pretty sure that if he had continued his rebuild there would be another sound from the fans that was outraged over him getting rid of XXXX. That is actually what is used for an argument for him being a bad GM in Sabres. People tend to forget he is the GM who brought in alot of younger guys. What hurt him is that he failed to get that big star when he couldnt get, I believe it was, Francis in a five for one trade.


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03-14-2011, 03:50 PM
  #194
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Nice pick bro! It was either him or Morrow at 505.

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I'm pretty sure that if he had continued his rebuild there would be another sound from the fans that was outraged over him getting rid of Gare. That is actually what is used for an argument for him being a bad GM in Sabres. People tend to forget he is the GM who brought in Barrasso, Andreychuk, Ramsey, Foligno and Housley is easily forgotten. What hurt him is that he failed to get that big star when he couldnt get, I believe it was, Francis in a five for one trade.
few undrafteds.


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03-14-2011, 03:53 PM
  #195
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He's awesome at getting laid out by Robinson.


Good pick.

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03-14-2011, 03:53 PM
  #196
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I don't know what this is proof of other than the fact that maybe it shouldn't have been surprising that Scottie ended up making a terrible GM.


but on the other hand, jkrx is making a pretty good case for him. Why do so many people say he was a bad GM?

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seventieslord has eagle's pick?
yep. And that pick is Jerry Korab, D.

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03-14-2011, 03:58 PM
  #197
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but on the other hand, jkrx is making a pretty good case for him. Why do so many people say he was a bad GM?
I just couldn't resist that chance for the one-liner.

I don't think Bowman was really that bad at GM, just nowhere close to as good as expected, given what a great coach he was. I definitely remember that "impatience" was considered a weakness.

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03-14-2011, 04:00 PM
  #198
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Nice pick bro! It was either him or Morrow at 505.
Thanks bro - definitely adds some toughness to my 3rd line.

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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
He's awesome at getting laid out by Robinson.


Good pick.
I'm letting that slide because Robinson's awesome and my mom used to work for him, but otherwise, you'd be in big trouble.

Thanks though

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03-14-2011, 04:10 PM
  #199
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Nice pick bro! It was either him or Morrow at 505.



few undrafteds.
Fixed mine, could you edit your quote so they all dissapear.

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03-14-2011, 04:16 PM
  #200
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but on the other hand, jkrx is making a pretty good case for him. Why do so many people say he was a bad GM?



yep. And that pick is Jerry Korab, D.
what a great pick , a steal , I thought about him for my pick s well.

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