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Old
03-13-2011, 12:56 PM
  #1
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Cap Permutations for Next Season's D Corps

Jim Jamieson crunches some numbers trying to see who fits where on D next season. He assumes Chris Tanev is pencilled in next season's line-up. It then comes down to a choice between Bieksa and Ehrhoff and he opines that Ehrhoff is the preference if dollars are equal and neither is looking significantly north of Dan Hamhuis money.

Of course it also depends upon how much the cap goes up next season.

However as he cautions:
Salary cap math is a little like quantum mechanics.

By this we mean it is mostly incomprehensible to the average person and can lead to alternate realities.

Keeping this in mind we're going to have look at next season's Canucks blueline.

Next season, Canucks management will have to make some tough decisions. They have four of their top eight D-men becoming Unrestricted Free Agents on July 1.

These include: Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff, Sami Salo and Andrew Alberts.
http://www.theprovince.com/business/...#ixzz1GVFn2BGS

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Old
03-13-2011, 01:13 PM
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I can't see Hoff getting any less than Hamhuis to be honest. Hopefully Gillis can work his magic and somehow keep both.

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03-13-2011, 01:16 PM
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Hard to really take much stock in someone's opinion who starts off a column comparing the cap to quantum mechanics. I know alot of the media can't grasp basic stuff, but seriously??

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Old
03-13-2011, 01:20 PM
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He also makes unbased assumptions like the basis of his "math" - that our budget will be exactly the same next year for D as this year. Although he states the cap is expected to go up, he doesn't factor that into his math at all.

Pretty weak article as expected.

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Old
03-13-2011, 01:24 PM
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Personally, I think we re-sign both Ehrhoff and Bieksa and trade Samuelsson.

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03-13-2011, 02:07 PM
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Anyone else see Ryan Parent as a realistic option for the bottom pair next year? Based on reports he was outplaying Tanev in the A (but we couldn't risk him on re-entry waivers).

I'd actually like to see Tanev back down in the AHL to work on Developping his offensive game.

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Old
03-13-2011, 02:25 PM
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considering how he was playing when healthy, and how much this coaching staff loves physical play from the defense, I wouldn't discount Alberts from being re-signed as the 3rd pairing left side guy next season.

he'll be cheap, he's become effective this year, and brings a type of game that the coaches like and this is otherwise missing from our lineup... seems like an ideal fit as our #6 guy... of course it depends heavily on how he plays when he returns and especially in the playoffs (if he plays)... at worst though, he's cheap enough to be a #7, and is much better than Rome.

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Old
03-13-2011, 02:39 PM
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I don't really see how you would replace Samuelsson's offense for less of a Cap hit. So trading him would just weaken our forward depth.

Personally I'm hoping for a 4yr $20 million contract for Ehrhoff (roughly), which would mean the only realistic way we could keep Bieksa is if he takes a pay cut. No matter how much he likes it here, I doubt he can justify to himself leaving mulitple millions' of dollars on the table to stay. Because I think that is what it would take. Plus to be perfectly honest, I just don't trust that this season is his true talent level. He's been all over the map in his Canuck career, so I'd rather bet on the guy who tends to stay healthy and QB's the league's best powerplay.

I'd prefer Tanev play in Manitoba next season to develope his overall game. Don't get me wrong, for a 21 year old rookie 2 years removed from Tier 2 hockey he's been amazing-but compared to other NHL D-men he's mostly just surviving. He's very intelligent with the puck and he might develope more offensive confidence if he gets those minutes at the AHL level.

We'll see what happens with Salo, if he wants to come back hopefully he cuts Gillis a bit of a break for Cap purposes. He's still clearly a very good NHL D-man.

I could see Alberts coming back too depending on how much he wants. Though with Parent and Rome around, that may be too many bodies. Err check that, with Canuck luck on D, that's probably still not enough bodies.

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03-13-2011, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Personally, I think we re-sign both Ehrhoff and Bieksa and trade Samuelsson.
The cap should go up another 2 - 3 million or so. They can all be fit in and the article was written assuming the cap doesn't go up at all and the Canucks only want to spend the same amount as they did last year.

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Old
03-13-2011, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by The Big Foot View Post
Hard to really take much stock in someone's opinion who starts off a column comparing the cap to quantum mechanics. I know alot of the media can't grasp basic stuff, but seriously??
Jamieson is way ahead of a number of "professional" hockey writers who still think that you are banking money when a player is on LTIR.

Mind you earlier I did have to write the Province sports editor to knock that notion out of Jamieson's head so he has shown he can learn.

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Old
03-13-2011, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by LeftCoast View Post
Personally, I think we re-sign both Ehrhoff and Bieksa and trade Samuelsson.

And Ballard.

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Old
03-13-2011, 03:40 PM
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The way I see it, the left side for next season is set (Edler/Hamhuis/Ballard/Rome/Parent) while the right side is wide open (Tanev is the only one under contract, but I would rather he get another year in the AHL to develop his offensive game).

Yes, Ballard is able to play the right side, but I prefer him on the left. So with that group on the left, we're clearly letting Alberts go. Left with Ehrhoff/Bieksa/Salo.

The only way I bring back Salo is one a one-year deal at around $1.5 million, IMO. There's no bonus cushion next year so we can't even structure a deal that way.

A lot of this depends on how they play in the post-season, but I would rather re-sign Ehrhoff than Bieksa. Simply because it's easier to replace grit on the back-end than speed, puck-rushing and offense.

Assuming Ehrhoff and Salo comes back, that leaves a spot open on the right side? It's a pretty lean year for UFAs, the one guy I would look at is Hal Gill. He's old, yes (36 next season) but since his game doesn't really depend on puck skills or mobility he will have longevity in this league. He's very effective in front of the net, has a huge amount of playoff experience, and long playoff runs seem to follow him around. Probably could be had for 2-3 million.

So this leaves the group as:

Edler/Ehrhoff
Hamhuis/Salo
Ballard/Gill
Rome
Parent

If we don't want to bring Salo back, one option might be trading Mason Raymond for a younger defenseman. Everyone talks about Bogosian and Weber but those are all-but-impossible targets. A more realistic one might be Roman Polak/

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Old
03-13-2011, 04:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burke's Evil Spirit View Post
The way I see it, the left side for next season is set (Edler/Hamhuis/Ballard/Rome/Parent) while the right side is wide open (Tanev is the only one under contract, but I would rather he get another year in the AHL to develop his offensive game).

Yes, Ballard is able to play the right side, but I prefer him on the left. So with that group on the left, we're clearly letting Alberts go. Left with Ehrhoff/Bieksa/Salo.

The only way I bring back Salo is one a one-year deal at around $1.5 million, IMO. There's no bonus cushion next year so we can't even structure a deal that way.

A lot of this depends on how they play in the post-season, but I would rather re-sign Ehrhoff than Bieksa. Simply because it's easier to replace grit on the back-end than speed, puck-rushing and offense.

Assuming Ehrhoff and Salo comes back, that leaves a spot open on the right side? It's a pretty lean year for UFAs, the one guy I would look at is Hal Gill. He's old, yes (36 next season) but since his game doesn't really depend on puck skills or mobility he will have longevity in this league. He's very effective in front of the net, has a huge amount of playoff experience, and long playoff runs seem to follow him around. Probably could be had for 2-3 million.

So this leaves the group as:

Edler/Ehrhoff
Hamhuis/Salo
Ballard/Gill
Rome
Parent

If we don't want to bring Salo back, one option might be trading Mason Raymond for a younger defenseman. Everyone talks about Bogosian and Weber but those are all-but-impossible targets. A more realistic one might be Roman Polak/
I don't see how dropping Alberts (who will likely not see much of a pay raise, if any) to sign Gill for $2-3 million is a good idea when they are virtually the same player and play the same side of the ice.

If we look to FA's, I'd look at a guy like Montador who should be cheap and plays the right side. Hell no to Gill. Not because he's not good, but because Alberts is close to the same thing and a lot cheaper.

Ideally, something like:

Ehrhoff(5.0)-Edler(3.25)
Salo(1.5)-Hamhuis(4.5)
Montador(1.5)-Ballard(4.2)
Rome(0.7)-Alberts(0.9)

But that might not be realistic. Depends on Salo. If he doesn't come back then they need another top four guy.

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Old
03-13-2011, 04:45 PM
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i hope we can keep Erhoff, but i fear Detroit will go after him hard once Lidstrom retires.

Don't see them keeping both, but that would be amazing. I assume Salo is going to retire (let's hope in a blaze of glory.)

It is amazing that they've been this good without Edler and Bieksa -- who sits for those guys? Rome and Tanev are the candidates, but man both have been really good.

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03-13-2011, 04:47 PM
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I would like Alberts back. I also think that people put too much stock in the left side/right side discussion, since injuries results in shuffling and we often have forwards on the PP point.

I think we let Salo go, hopefully he can get a decent contract somewhere because he's been great for us for a while, but I don't think he brings anything new to the team, and the cap space is better used on Bieksa and especially Ehrhoff.

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03-13-2011, 04:49 PM
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Cap next year

we may have cap bonuses from this year applied to next year, that will reduce our abilities to sign someone.

We have 14 players signed right now, not including Hodgson at $1.666M, and $12.8 M in cap space. Assuiming Hodgson makes it, it will be 10 players needed at $1.1M average.

Resign any of bieska, erhoff or Salo at the money they make today and and it will be 9 players at about $900 K each. Sign any of them for Ballard Hamhuis type money and it will be even worse.

Don't kid yourself; its going to be impossible to pick up high priced free agents. What the Canucks should be looking for is people wanting a legitimate shot at a Stanley cup and being prepared to take a major pay cuts. If we make it to the finals this year that could happen; if we pull a SJ and bow out in the first round after winning the Presidents I suspect it will be tough.

Heck, our top 10 prospects are all in the $1M range, so even going with them is going to be tight. We might get Torres back for $1M, but I can't see Hansen going for under $1M (heck I could see him getting an offer sheet in the $1.5 - 1.75M range; he's been great this year.)

Heck, I think Schneider is going to get a big pay raise (in 2012-13), but we can't trade him and get a reliable back up for anywhere near the same money.

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:10 PM
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FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($2.000m)
Mason Raymond ($2.550m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Mikael Samuelsson ($2.500m)
Cody Hodgson ($1.666m) / Manny Malhotra ($2.500m) / Hansen ($0.900m)
Glass ($0.650m) / Lapierre ($0.950m) / Higgins ($1.600m)
/ Tambellini ($0.500m)

DEFENSEMEN
Alexander Edler ($3.250m) / Erhoff ($4.500m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Bieksa ($4.000m)
Keith Ballard ($4.200m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Aaron Rome ($0.750m)

GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m) / Cory Schneider ($0.900m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,349,999; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $650,001

Seems fine to me. Let's just hope that the CBA can be extended so that Hodgson's cap hit will be soft.

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
we may have cap bonuses from this year applied to next year, that will reduce our abilities to sign someone.

We have 14 players signed right now, not including Hodgson at $1.666M, and $12.8 M in cap space. Assuiming Hodgson makes it, it will be 10 players needed at $1.1M average.

Resign any of bieska, erhoff or Salo at the money they make today and and it will be 9 players at about $900 K each. Sign any of them for Ballard Hamhuis type money and it will be even worse.

Don't kid yourself; its going to be impossible to pick up high priced free agents. What the Canucks should be looking for is people wanting a legitimate shot at a Stanley cup and being prepared to take a major pay cuts. If we make it to the finals this year that could happen; if we pull a SJ and bow out in the first round after winning the Presidents I suspect it will be tough.

Heck, our top 10 prospects are all in the $1M range, so even going with them is going to be tight. We might get Torres back for $1M, but I can't see Hansen going for under $1M (heck I could see him getting an offer sheet in the $1.5 - 1.75M range; he's been great this year.)

Heck, I think Schneider is going to get a big pay raise (in 2012-13), but we can't trade him and get a reliable back up for anywhere near the same money.
Also next year is a "hard cap" year with the expiring CBA so any players on the NHL roster with bonuses for the 2011-12 season will count against the cap and there is no way to defer those bonuses.

Most of the Canucks players on ELC's have bonuses - Hodgson has the biggest at $850,000 so his hard cap hit will be $1.666 million.

See capgeek for the others (put your cursor over the "+" to see the bonus amounts:
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=29

Too bad because Sami Salo would have been eligible for a bonus laden (games played) one year contract on two grounds - as a player with 400 or more games who spent 100 or more days on injured reserve in the last year of his most recent contract and also as senior veteran players who sign a one-year contract after the age of 35. Since there is no bonus cushion that possibility to shift cap dollars is no more.

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:27 PM
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It will be clear who should be retained and who should be let go after the real season is over. Until then...

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
considering how he was playing when healthy, and how much this coaching staff loves physical play from the defense, I wouldn't discount Alberts from being re-signed as the 3rd pairing left side guy next season.

he'll be cheap, he's become effective this year, and brings a type of game that the coaches like and this is otherwise missing from our lineup... seems like an ideal fit as our #6 guy... of course it depends heavily on how he plays when he returns and especially in the playoffs (if he plays)... at worst though, he's cheap enough to be a #7, and is much better than Rome.
I can't see them moving their 20 min per game stud in Rome while AV is coaching. Rome is cheaper and he's already signed and he's happy to be 7th D when the side is healthy.

I doubt Alberts signs anywhere near as cheap as Rome and ultimately cost will matter, especially if Tanev ($900k) stays with the main team. Alberts will likely want a #5 role somewhere rather than risk being a press box guy.

I can see the 5 top 4 D being Gillis's plan again next year assuming the D doesn't meltdown in the playoffs with Salo (age and injury reasons) being the odd man out. Who knows, if we melt down we might see 3 of (Hoff, Bieksa, Ballard and Salo) leave and get replaced 1 stud and a #6

Elder Stud
Hamhuis (remaining top 4 guy)
Alberts Tanev/Montador
Rome


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Old
03-13-2011, 05:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
considering how he was playing when healthy, and how much this coaching staff loves physical play from the defense, I wouldn't discount Alberts from being re-signed as the 3rd pairing left side guy next season.

he'll be cheap, he's become effective this year, and brings a type of game that the coaches like and this is otherwise missing from our lineup... seems like an ideal fit as our #6 guy... of course it depends heavily on how he plays when he returns and especially in the playoffs (if he plays)... at worst though, he's cheap enough to be a #7, and is much better than Rome.
I'd be surprised if Alberts decided to re-sign here, actually. When he was healthy he was still a healthy scratch in favour of Aaron Rome periodically. Alberts is good enough to get more regular minutes on another team and I think that may play a factor. He's also not likely to get more than a 1 or 2 year offer from Van(IMO).

I think if Salo has a good playoff, the Canucks could bring him back on a bonus-laden contract.

With regards to Ehrhoff and Bieksa, I think Ehrhoff is likely the No. 1 priority. Bieksa has had the more solid defensive game this season to be certain, but Ehrhoff has been a huge cog in the top PP unit in the NHL and has fit in extremely well here. If dollars have to be diverted from one to the other, I think Gillis would sign Ehrhoff before bringing back Bieksa.

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:36 PM
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Pretty sweet that most of us are all happy with just keeping most of our players from this year. Very little to complain about these days roster-wise.

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Old
03-13-2011, 05:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
we may have cap bonuses from this year applied to next year, that will reduce our abilities to sign someone.
The Canucks don't have a single bonus laden contract on their roster. The only guys who've played for them this season who are eligble for bonuses are Hodgson, Sauve, Shirokov, and Oberg who've played 8, 3, 2, and 2 games respectively, so there's no way they've reached any bonus thresholds.


Quote:
We have 14 players signed right now, not including Hodgson at $1.666M, and $12.8 M in cap space. Assuiming Hodgson makes it, it will be 10 players needed at $1.1M average.

Resign any of bieska, erhoff or Salo at the money they make today and and it will be 9 players at about $900 K each. Sign any of them for Ballard Hamhuis type money and it will be even worse.

Don't kid yourself; its going to be impossible to pick up high priced free agents. What the Canucks should be looking for is people wanting a legitimate shot at a Stanley cup and being prepared to take a major pay cuts. If we make it to the finals this year that could happen; if we pull a SJ and bow out in the first round after winning the Presidents I suspect it will be tough.

Heck, our top 10 prospects are all in the $1M range, so even going with them is going to be tight. We might get Torres back for $1M, but I can't see Hansen going for under $1M (heck I could see him getting an offer sheet in the $1.5 - 1.75M range; he's been great this year.)

Heck, I think Schneider is going to get a big pay raise (in 2012-13), but we can't trade him and get a reliable back up for anywhere near the same money.
That assumes the cap doesn't go up, which I think it will. There's also the fact that their top 7 forwards are already set, so filling out the bottom lines with low priced talent won't be that hard.

That said, I do agree that there's likely no way everyone on the back end is returning. At least one of Ehrhoff, Bieksa, or Ballard probably won't be returning next year and I'll bet Gillis will let this year's playoffs go a long way in determining who he allocates his resources towards.

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Old
03-13-2011, 06:43 PM
  #24
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I actually really like what Ballard brings to the team, our PK is much improved and he's a real ***** in front of the net with his stick work.

He along with Bieksa bring an element to our backend that we need.

I would really like to see Parent as our #6 (not Alberts) and Rome return as our #7, he's earned that role.

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Old
03-13-2011, 06:53 PM
  #25
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I don't really see how you would replace Samuelsson's offense for less of a Cap hit. So trading him would just weaken our forward depth.
We would only miss his offensive production for the 50% of games he shows up to. I'm not a Samuelsson hater - I expect he will elevate his game in the playoffs and his experience and shoot first mentality is an asset to the team. But there are long, long stretches of games where he is either invisible or a liability.

At 36 35, he just can't play 82 games + playoffs with the intensity required of a top 6 forward.

I'd rather take a chance on a younger player - Higgins, Tambelini, Hodgson, Schroeder, Sweatt or Shirokov and use the cap savings to retain the depth on our blue line.


Last edited by LeftCoast: 03-13-2011 at 07:45 PM.
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