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Craziest stat of all...

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Old
03-14-2011, 09:52 PM
  #1
RFIP
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Craziest stat of all...

1) Vancouver +64 goals
2) Boston +41
3) Philadelphia +37
4) Chicago +36

The hawks are fourth in the entire league in goal differential, the lead the entire NHL in goals scored and some how, some way they are fighting for their playoff lives.

Crazy

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Old
03-14-2011, 10:05 PM
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madgoat33
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bad pk. If their Pk was 15th in the league, they would have allowed 9 less goals, and with the amount of 1 goal losses they have they could potentially have 4+more wins. Not to mention, Turco starting the majority of the games early probably cost them at least 5 wins. If crawford had been the undisputed starter for 10-15 more games they'd probably be #2 in the conference right now

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Old
03-14-2011, 10:15 PM
  #3
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Originally Posted by madgoat33 View Post
bad pk. If their Pk was 15th in the league, they would have allowed 9 less goals, and with the amount of 1 goal losses they have they could potentially have 4+more wins. Not to mention, Turco starting the majority of the games early probably cost them at least 5 wins. If crawford had been the undisputed starter for 10-15 more games they'd probably be #2 in the conference right now
What's nuts is, they lead the league by a wide margin in games that they led or were tied in the 3rd period only to get NO points in said game. That stat alone is what's keepinging them from being the #2 seed in the west.

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03-14-2011, 10:20 PM
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madgoat33
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Originally Posted by RFIP View Post
What's nuts is, they lead the league by a wide margin in games that they led or were tied in the 3rd period only to get NO points in said game. That stat alone is what's keepinging them from being the #2 seed in the west.
Very true. That's why I don't understand all the doom and gloom around here. Barring their terrible start, partly due to playing the longest season, then getting packed with the most games of any team early, and largely due to subpar play from turco, they'd be top 3-4 in points in the NHL, not too far off last season.

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03-14-2011, 10:33 PM
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Sevanston
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madgoat33 View Post
Very true. That's why I don't understand all the doom and gloom around here. Barring their terrible start, partly due to playing the longest season, then getting packed with the most games of any team early, and largely due to subpar play from turco, they'd be top 3-4 in points in the NHL, not too far off last season.
Shoulda. Coulda. Woulda.

Fact is, no matter how good some of our stats look, we're still fighting to make the playoffs.

People have a right to be upset.

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03-14-2011, 11:19 PM
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how does this happen

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Old
03-14-2011, 11:55 PM
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madgoat33
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
Shoulda. Coulda. Woulda.

Fact is, no matter how good some of our stats look, we're still fighting to make the playoffs.

People have a right to be upset.
This team is better than their record. I don't think its going to be nearly as hard to make the playoffs as some people think. And I also think that as long as crawford plays decent, the hawks can beat anyone.

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Old
03-15-2011, 12:10 AM
  #8
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Well we r currently in 4th


Last edited by Hawkey39: 03-15-2011 at 11:24 AM.
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Old
03-15-2011, 02:36 AM
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Originally Posted by madgoat33 View Post
bad pk. If their Pk was 15th in the league, they would have allowed 9 less goals, and with the amount of 1 goal losses they have they could potentially have 4+more wins. Not to mention, Turco starting the majority of the games early probably cost them at least 5 wins. If crawford had been the undisputed starter for 10-15 more games they'd probably be #2 in the conference right now
I thought the reason the goings didn't get uglier early in the season was Turco, he kept the team in it when they were playing like crap. He then sort of petered off.

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03-15-2011, 02:44 AM
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madgoat33
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Originally Posted by EmeticDonut View Post
I thought the reason the goings didn't get uglier early in the season was Turco, he kept the team in it when they were playing like crap. He then sort of petered off.
he had a stretch of 5-6 good games, but then imploded and cost the hawks quite a few games.

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Old
03-15-2011, 06:47 AM
  #11
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Our playoff chances ar now over 92%, so we are hardly fighting for our playoff lives.

Our goal differential suggests we are much better than our record.

We need to play .500 to get to 96 points and close to a 98% chance of the playoffs.

.500 should be easy for a team with points in 11 of their last 12 games and the 4th best goal differential in the game.

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Old
03-15-2011, 07:12 AM
  #12
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A couple other problems...

Players trying to do too much. Making the extra pass instead of putting the puck on net. Risky passes from the defensive zone instead of hammering it up the boards. Way too many missed opportunities and turnovers. Stupid attempt at a cross-ice pass last night led to San Jose's first goal. Play simple hockey.

Lapses in concentration. Goals allowed early and late in periods, goals allowed after we score, goals allowed after a PP expires. Last night was the 4th straight late first period goal allowed.

This team's got a lot of talent and can play with anyone, but because of the above, anyone can play with them. Ask Colorado, Florida, and Edmonton.

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03-15-2011, 09:09 AM
  #13
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Firstly. I donít take much credence in that stat. You can lose 10 games in a row by one goal and then blow out a few teams by 4 or 5 goals each and youíre back to evening it out. I do however like the fact that Hawks, in transition, with all the new faces have kept virtually every game close on the scoreboard. They have lost more than their share of one-goal games; games that they would have pulled out last year. Donít have the stats in front of me but Iíd venture to say that our 3rd period record last year far exceeds this years but there are many factors involved when it comes to their less than stellar record. If I had to pinpoint one it would be the poor PK, as has been pointed out. Making the playoffs is now the goal, after that anything can still happen.

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03-15-2011, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted by BobbyJet View Post
Firstly. I donít take much credence in that stat. You can lose 10 games in a row by one goal and then blow out a few teams by 4 or 5 goals each and youíre back to evening it out. I do however like the fact that Hawks, in transition, with all the new faces have kept virtually every game close on the scoreboard. They have lost more than their share of one-goal games; games that they would have pulled out last year. Donít have the stats in front of me but Iíd venture to say that our 3rd period record last year far exceeds this years but there are many factors involved when it comes to their less than stellar record. If I had to pinpoint one it would be the poor PK, as has been pointed out. Making the playoffs is now the goal, after that anything can still happen.
You should put credence in that stat. Go back and look, every year the teams with the best goal differential are the ones that make the playoffs (with exception of a team here or there). Last year the Sharks and Hawks were 1-2 in goal differential and they finished 1-2 in the standings and played in the WCF.

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Old
03-15-2011, 09:37 AM
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Hawks are a top 4 team in the league and the stats back that up. The reason why we're not leading the division is a bad achilles heal (PK) and a former starting goalie who was below the mendoza line (.900 SV% for goalies, we'll call it the Lalime line, lol).

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03-15-2011, 10:26 AM
  #16
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Originally Posted by coldsteelonice84 View Post
Hawks are a top 4 team in the league and the stats back that up. The reason why we're not leading the division is a bad achilles heal (PK) and a former starting goalie who was below the mendoza line (.900 SV% for goalies, we'll call it the Lalime line, lol).
Well, we may be a top four team with a top ten PK, but we don't have one, so we're not.

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03-15-2011, 10:33 AM
  #17
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Originally Posted by slappipappi View Post
Our goal differential suggests we are much better than our record.
Our PK percentage suggests that we are not. You can't just cherry pick one stat and use that as an indicator of overall worth.

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03-15-2011, 10:35 AM
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coldsteelonice84
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You can't be a top four team with a bad PK. That's part of the team.
That's assuming a top 4 team is strong at everything. Philly has the 17th ranked PP and is 10th in PK, Boston is 20th in PP and 18th in PK. Vancouver is the only complete team and we already knew that and know we can beat them. Hawks are just as good as anyone else, just top heavy in PP and way low in PK but all the same in the end compared to Philly and Boston. At least we have a unit we can count on game in, game out.

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03-15-2011, 11:09 AM
  #19
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You can look at stats all you want but it doesn't explain what we were seeing in those early games. The Hawks have enormous firepower when the forwards are all healthy...Kane was out and Hossa was out for a while so that had an impact.

To me however, while the Hawks may have only lost by a goal in games, it didn't seem like they were in those games. Passing was haphazard (causing way too many turnovers), they were being beaten to the puck, and there was little help (beyond the Captain) to a defense that was struggling to cope with their personnel changes.

The MAJOR difference in the Hawks from Nov-Dec and Feb- March and that is the the amount of back pressure (as Eddie O discussed last night actually commending the Sharks) and back checking the forwards have been placing on opponents. Our forwards are fast and can catch opponents in the neutral zone or just as they cross the blue line. This keeps them from setting up plays in our zone. Which is good because our lack of physicality hurts us when other teams start cycling the puck or get set up behind the net. It is also why we struggle with the PK...I am blown away by how often we try and fail at clearing the puck.

The other recent change is the play of Frolik and Campoli who play the whole ice and aren't afraid to put a body on someone (I am constantly surprised by how many times Keith avoids putting a hit on someone when it is needed).

This team has huge upside and is still one of the most dangerous teams in the League. I believe we will be a 4 or 5 seed barring any more injuries.

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03-15-2011, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Suburbanbear View Post
You can look at stats all you want but it doesn't explain what we were seeing in those early games. The Hawks have enormous firepower when the forwards are all healthy...Kane was out and Hossa was out for a while so that had an impact.

To me however, while the Hawks may have only lost by a goal in games, it didn't seem like they were in those games. Passing was haphazard (causing way too many turnovers), they were being beaten to the puck, and there was little help (beyond the Captain) to a defense that was struggling to cope with their personnel changes.

The MAJOR difference in the Hawks from Nov-Dec and Feb- March and that is the the amount of back pressure (as Eddie O discussed last night actually commending the Sharks) and back checking the forwards have been placing on opponents. Our forwards are fast and can catch opponents in the neutral zone or just as they cross the blue line. This keeps them from setting up plays in our zone. Which is good because our lack of physicality hurts us when other teams start cycling the puck or get set up behind the net. It is also why we struggle with the PK...I am blown away by how often we try and fail at clearing the puck.

The other recent change is the play of Frolik and Campoli who play the whole ice and aren't afraid to put a body on someone (I am constantly surprised by how many times Keith avoids putting a hit on someone when it is needed).

This team has huge upside and is still one of the most dangerous teams in the League. I believe we will be a 4 or 5 seed barring any more injuries.
Keith has become a minor disappointment. There's no way he was this soft last year.

Also, main board is about to explode in that Toews thread. The Toews vs. Datsyuk argument just got dropped

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Old
03-15-2011, 11:17 AM
  #21
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Yeah, Frolik and Campoli make us a much better team than early in the year. And there was a Cup hangover that made pretty much everybody look like a different player.

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Old
03-15-2011, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RFIP View Post
1) Vancouver +64 goals
2) Boston +41
3) Philadelphia +37
4) Chicago +36

The hawks are fourth in the entire league in goal differential, the lead the entire NHL in goals scored and some how, some way they are fighting for their playoff lives.

Crazy
I'm glad someone brought this up. In most sports, once you get to 1/2 way through the season, scoring differential is a better predictor of future record than actual record.

Also, the fact that the Hawks are having a better year scoring (relative to the league) this year somewhat debunks the view that the loss of depth (and people were referring to forwards) is behind the Hawks fall this year. The Hawks miss Ladd and that's it. The Hawks drop in play this year is almost exclusively the result of Keith (and the 1st pair more generally) going from by far the best in the league last year to being below average vs. other #1 D/top pairs in the league this year. Of course the PK is much worse, but the PP is much better, so that's a wash.

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Old
03-15-2011, 12:11 PM
  #23
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It's quite amazing we're still managing to score so much, with some of our key forwards having injuries this season. Problem is, to be successful in the playoffs, we need our defense to get their **** together and play well on a consistent basis.

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Old
03-15-2011, 12:26 PM
  #24
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I think that stat is pretty accurate. What it shows is the Hawks are one of the better teams in the NHL. It also shows they've had issues holding leads in the third period. Last year when the Hawks would open up a 2 or 3 goal lead, they would put their foot to the metal.

This year they seem to be shelling up and trying to hold on for dear life. That's where we've seen a lot of these blown leads. It was awesome to see them hold their ground in the third period last night with that 3 goal lead, even though they did get heavily outshot in the 3rd. Hopefully there's more of that to come.

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Old
03-15-2011, 12:37 PM
  #25
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It's quite amazing we're still managing to score so much, with some of our key forwards having injuries this season. Problem is, to be successful in the playoffs, we need our defense to get their **** together and play well on a consistent basis.

Yes, our GF stat, relative to the rest of the NHL, is a big surprise for me considering the number of times we have run into sizzling hot goaltending. Especially, early in the season, our offence was struggling to finish, but have broken out since. If we can get line 2 and 3 playing to their potential offensively, watch out! Last night the officiating was worse than brutal and the opps was handed a goal in the first few minutes and Niemi looked like he was going to shut us down, but we kept coming and it paid off. Its games like that build confidence.

Defence and goaltending are of course crucial in PO hockey but a team that can play any style is where we were last year and I'm confident we can return there.

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