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Are the Rangers Just Unlucky This Year?

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Old
03-15-2011, 09:13 PM
  #1
Synergy27
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Are the Rangers Just Unlucky This Year?

I just did a quick standings/stats check and was shocked to see that the Rangers are 8th in the league in goals scored and 7th in goals against. Their +30 differential is good for fifth in the entire NHL. Now, we have discussed the whole "how many 1 goal games can we lose" thing to death, but when you see those numbers, is it correct to conclude that they really have just been unlucky?

Or, do the several lopsided victories coupled with said one goal losses serve as a better indication that the team should actually be 17th overall like they are? I mean, I know they've suffered from bad bounces and I have definitely voiced my opinion here several times that I thought they deserved to win after a loss, but I really had no idea that their peripheral metrics were THAT good. They seem to me to be a pretty good indication that the team is better than we think. Thoughts?

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03-15-2011, 09:16 PM
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blueshirt4lyfe
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Well, we've had a lot of lopsided wins this season and a lot of one goal losses. That post all star break stretch was tough because before that we could have legitimately contended for a 5th seed. We never really played horrible and we had a ton of chances we couldn't convert on so luck was a big factor imo.

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Old
03-15-2011, 09:17 PM
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Blatant
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I think it has been a mix of both, when you have a lot of 1 goal losses, it can be the difference of an inch. Whether you create that luck, or that inch is the debate.

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03-15-2011, 09:21 PM
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Blue Line Monster
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It was brought up in another scoring thread yesterday I think, but we were 19th in goals per game before this game. Not sure what it is now. Goals scored is pretty misleading with a lot of blowout wins, probably more blowout wins than any other team...

We were 14th in goals scored a day or two ago also so not sure if your stat is incorrect or if this game really made us jump to 8th.

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03-15-2011, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Line Monster View Post
It was brought up in another scoring thread yesterday I think, but we were 19th in goals per game before this game. Not sure what it is now. Goals scored is pretty misleading with a lot of blowout wins, probably more blowout wins than any other team...

We were 14th in goals scored a day or two ago also so not sure if your stat is correct or if this game really made us jump to 8th.
Dunno if other teams were blowout wins, sure not all were. But I just heard NYR are tied for first in NHL with Boston, Vancouver and I think Tampa with 9 games of 6 plus goals.

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03-15-2011, 09:27 PM
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Synergy27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Line Monster View Post
It was brought up in another scoring thread yesterday I think, but we were 19th in goals per game before this game. Not sure what it is now. Goals scored is pretty misleading with a lot of blowout wins, probably more blowout wins than any other team...

We were 14th in goals scored a day or two ago also so not sure if your stat is correct or if this game really made us jump to 8th.
Well, they're down to 9th now that Pittsburgh put up 5. I get your point, but still, is scoring really a problem on this team? With Lundqvist and our defense, surely we are scoring enough goals to not be fighting for a playoff spot? Do you really need to discount blowout wins when evaluating the scoring potential of a team? Does a small gain in consistency (assumed with age/growth) and a regression to the mean in the luck department (see one goal game losses) mean that this team improves 2-3 places in the conference standings without adding an impact player next year?

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03-15-2011, 09:43 PM
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Blue Line Monster
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
Well, they're down to 9th now that Pittsburgh put up 5. I get your point, but still, is scoring really a problem on this team? With Lundqvist and our defense, surely we are scoring enough goals to not be fighting for a playoff spot? Do you really need to discount blowout wins when evaluating the scoring potential of a team? Does a small gain in consistency (assumed with age/growth) and a regression to the mean in the luck department (see one goal game losses) mean that this team improves 2-3 places in the conference standings without adding an impact player next year?
I wouldn't discount the blowouts for all teams. I just think it's flukey for us. Look at the teams the poster above you said we're tied with for 1st with nine 6+ goal games. Three of the best offensive teams in the league.

That's why I think the being 19th in goals per game(or whatever we are after this game) is more indicative of our offense.

I think the 1 goal losses come down to not having go-to offensive guys in close games. So many games we had like 10-15 minutes to score the big goal and lost 3-2. Someone brought this up in a GDT a few games ago, that the Rangers are 1 of 5 teams that don't have a 50 point scorer, and I think 3 or 4 of the others are bottom feeders.

Just not enough talent.

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Old
03-15-2011, 09:57 PM
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I personally think, if we had 40g Gaborik, we're ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings. Scoring goals becomes a problem for this team when we don't have someone who we can go to when we're down 3-2 with 10~ minutes left to go.

We score by committee, like (I think) Fitzy said somewhere, and if you add a superstar 40g scorer to that our offense isn't much of a problem at all.

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03-15-2011, 10:03 PM
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JUST unlucky? No, there are a number of defensive mishaps, missed opportunities, and young-player-type-mistakes that have contributed to our current place in the standings.

Have they been unlucky, though? Absolutely. Let's say just 4 of those one goal games where the Rangers made a late push get into OT. Let's ignore our OT record and say we split those...

We are 39-26-6, good for 84 points, 6th in the conference, solidly in a playoff spot, and fighting for 5th or maybe even 4th.

Think about it this way... the 08-09 team that featured a top line of Naslund-Gomez-Zherdev and looked absolutely lifeless at times down the stretch managed to sneak in as the 7th seed. Would you replace this team to go back to that one? Hells no. This is a better team... but they have been unlucky at times... yes.

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03-15-2011, 10:21 PM
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For all the talk of losing these 1-goal games, people forget how many of them we won earlier in the season. I remember discussing with my dad whether or not it would tip in the other direction (at the turn of the year, they were 8-2-1). The Rangers record in 1-goal games this season, not including shootouts, is 11-12-2. Add in 5 wins with EN goals and 8 losses, that record is 16-20-2. While it's under .500 in actual one-goal games, it's not as bad as you guys make it out to be. It just seems much worse because we've only had 3 wins in the last 2.5 months.

These things balance over the course of a full season.

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Old
03-15-2011, 10:24 PM
  #11
I Am Chariot
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Rangers at times simply lack the winners instinct to put teams away.

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Old
03-15-2011, 11:03 PM
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Draft Guru
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Definitely unlucky.

All of those 1 goal losses.

All of those injuries.

And in those 1 goal losses, how many times have we come a post or a puck cleared off the goal line away from tying the game? Quite a few.

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03-15-2011, 11:15 PM
  #13
ecemleafs
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we dont have enough talent to score goals in close/defensive games. in games where a couple bounces go our way we seem to be able to pile it on when the other team gives up.

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Old
03-15-2011, 11:55 PM
  #14
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shouldn't we wait to call it unlucky until the season is over?

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Old
03-16-2011, 12:38 AM
  #15
Kane One
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I don't think we were unlucky this season.. I just think our problem is the massive amount of inconsistency from our players and also the injuries. That's pretty much it. We lost the games we didn't deserve to win. That's it.

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Old
03-16-2011, 01:26 AM
  #16
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Its just a shame cause we DO have that superstar player..

Gaborik's looked better the last 2 games, if hes ready to take off we're in good shape.

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