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ATD 2011 Draft Thread IX

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Old
03-28-2011, 03:56 PM
  #426
TheDevilMadeMe
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Sturm, I totally agree with you about the lady byng. Stan fischler, as old school as they come, gives a huge amount of credit to the byng in his joke of a list where Frank Boucher is ranked 4th all time. But it should be a positive. It means the guy played his heart out, he just did it cleanly, which was rare in those days. So rare that it was worth giving an award for. I definitely viewed the byngs Clint Smith and Quackenbush received as major pluses for them.

Re: morenz, disagree that he is comparable to Boucher for reasons outlined above.

Re: Bill Cook, I too have wondered why he was better than Boucher. Aren't their Hart records fairly close?

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03-28-2011, 03:56 PM
  #427
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I'd hate to be playing against a 4th line that has Gallant and Labine on it.

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03-28-2011, 03:58 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I agree that simply multiplying the assists by some factor is a terribly crude way to bring them in line with modern scoring conventions, and I consider assists rather overrated in relation to goals in the modern game, anyway, so I couldn't approve of such a clumsy method for a variety of reasons. I find it terribly odd to see the increasing number of arguments in the ATD which try to equate modern assists to goals on a 1-to-1 level. Points finishes have been artificially tilted towards playmakers basically since the end of the war.

That said, even a more conservative metric would surely help Frank Boucher, surely less so in relation to Morenz (who was also a great playmaker) than compared to the rest of the league, but probably somewhat. Outside of Morenz's one huge season, a fair accounting of their respective offensive production would seem to place them as basically equals, especially factoring in Boucher's one big western league scoring season and adjusting Morenz's scoring for his couple of seasons in the three league era. Absolute peak value certainly matters and I don't want to discount Morenz's huge season in the comparison, but they are an awful lot closer offensively that the canon would suggest.

I will have to post all of the material I have on Boucher's defensive game. There is quite a lot of it out there, and I have seen comparatively little regarding Morenz.
Interesting that you make this goals>assists argument in a post that also argues Boucher>Cook :-)

But my position on the value of assists relative to goals is "it depends", so I don't necessarily disagree.


Re: Briere, his success has come while playing C AND while being sheltered with soft minutes. In Buffalo, Drury took the tough matchups and the d-zone draws. In Philly, the HBL line was very sheltered in the playoffs - I reemember one game they were out for 13 o-zone draws and zero d-zone draws.

If he's in your top 6 I suggest you have a hard-core checking line, 2007 Ducks style.

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03-28-2011, 04:00 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
I'd hate to be playing against a 4th line that has Gallant and Labine on it.
Agree. I usually don't build tradional fourth lines myself (instead using my 4th as a dump for special teams guys), but LF is building a great one.

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03-28-2011, 04:05 PM
  #430
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I'll pick shortly, it's a toss up between 2 guys. I'm pretty torn right now, I don't suppose anyone has a second to give their two cents via pm?

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03-28-2011, 04:05 PM
  #431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
I'd hate to be playing against a 4th line that has Gallant and Labine on it.
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Agree. I usually don't build tradional fourth lines myself (instead using my 4th as a dump for special teams guys), but LF is building a great one.
You two are my new best friends

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I'll pick shortly, it's a toss up between 2 guys. I'm pretty torn right now, I don't suppose anyone has a second to give their two cents via pm?
Can't promiise I'll give you the quality of advice you seek (depending on how well I know the guys), but sure.

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03-28-2011, 04:08 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Re: howie morenz, I realized a long time ago that due to the short seasons and low point totals of the pre-forward pass era that season by season totals are suspect for sample size reasons. Also, you have the major outlier season of 29-30 when there was no offsides rule at the beginning of the season, and a couple of cherrypickers obliterated the league.
Erm...the points distribution in 29-30 was actually fairly regular. Cooney Weiland was an outlier in 1st place (especially given his career scoring results), but after him the scoring distribution was perfectly normal, and at any rate only the first half of the season was played without the offsides rule.

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I remember comparing morenz's numbers over a longer stretch of years, and he obliterated the league in both goals and points. His linemate Joliat was second way back, then another big drop to third. And morenz's assist totals were neck and neck with Joe Primeau for best in the league over this time frame.
Then your memory is hazy. If we calculate Morenz into the same years we look at Boucher and Cook (so 1926-27 to 1934-35, which is also conveniently the end of Morenz's peak), he comes out with 350 points over that timespan - exactly one point more than Boucher and Cook. Exactly who did Morenz obliterate in your analysis? I'm guessing that you factored in Morenz's scoring in the 23-26 period, in which Boucher and Cook were out west. While they competed against one another in the NHL, the three were virtually indistinguishable from one another as scorers.

The canon that places Morenz on a scoring pedestal above these guys seems to be, well...wrong.

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03-28-2011, 04:08 PM
  #433
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Goals are obviously more statistically valuable than assists. But when it comes to the true all time greats, like the players who are generally relevant at this level, assists are usually just as important. You can't tell me a hejduk goal is better than a forsberg assist, even if the assists include secondaries.

I think that for players who were legit stars in the NHL, points are a good estimate of offensive contribution. When points are close, I go with the guy with more goals. So if Doan and Guerin are close as point producers (and they are), the more valuable offensive player is the one with more goals (guerin). (This says nothing of ES vs PP point production, which might be a boost to guerin at ES).

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Old
03-28-2011, 04:10 PM
  #434
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
"Labine the Frankenstein" Or "Frankenlabine". You should get a job making hockey nicknames
Next ATD I'm going to try to make an entire team that looks like Frankenstein. Bossy in the first round, Salming in the second...I'll need a few others to get picked in the mid rounds before Labine though.

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Old
03-28-2011, 04:12 PM
  #435
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Interesting that you make this goals>assists argument in a post that also argues Boucher>Cook :-)

But my position on the value of assists relative to goals is "it depends", so I don't necessarily disagree.
I think they were clearly about equal as scorers. From a "modern" perspective they weren't, as Boucher would almost certainly have accumulated more 2nd assists than Cook, but I don't actually think scoring from that era was as out of whack in comparing playmakers vs. goalscorers as it is today.

The problem is that almost all ATD GMs think in modern terms about older players. Even if I think it would overrate his scoring relative to Cook's, evaluating them in modern terms would almost certainly lead to Boucher being seen as the better overall scorer. Personally, I think they're about equal. Boucher was a far superior defensive player, though.

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03-28-2011, 04:14 PM
  #436
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If it was easy to separate out secondary assists, I think goals + primary assists + secondaries/2 would be a good formula to estimate offensive contribution. And yes, I do think the 2 passes before an average goal are more valuable combined than the finish. Just my opinion there, and that's why no formula is perfect
.

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Old
03-28-2011, 04:18 PM
  #437
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I can definitely see the argument that cook = Boucher.

But while my memory might be "hazy," I do remember multiple newspaper accounts from the era, all of them calling morenz the best in the league or the best ever. I even posted one or two of them on the dishing the dirt thread.

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03-28-2011, 04:19 PM
  #438
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Wrong thread.

I'll add this on Cook vs Boucher: Though they may have been equal during their time together, wasn't Cook's western career a lot more spectacular?


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Old
03-28-2011, 04:26 PM
  #439
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
If it was easy to separate out secondary assists, I think goals + primary assists + secondaries/2 would be a good formula to estimate offensive contribution. And yes, I do think the 2 passes before an average goal are more valuable combined than the finish. Just my opinion there, and that's why no formula is perfect.
This is actually very close to my own opinion. Secondary assists do have value (not on every play, but longitudinally speaking), but definitely not 1-to-1 with goals. Your rough and ready formula is as good as any I've seen.

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03-28-2011, 04:32 PM
  #440
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But while my memory might be "hazy," I do remember multiple newspaper accounts from the era, all of them calling morenz the best in the league or the best ever. I even posted one or two of them on the dishing the dirt thread.
I know, and I respect the testimony of contemporaries quite a lot. It would take more information than I've provided thus far for me to seriously equate Boucher to Morenz, but at this point they do seem to be quite a bit closer than we've all come to believe, and I'm kind of at a loss as to why Morenz was considered the better player. After doing a bit more digging...yeah, I'm pretty positive that Boucher was the better defensive player, as well. I don't have time to post all the material I have on Boucher's all-around game tonight, but I will try to do so tomorrow. I'll leave it up to Morenz's owner to post what he's got on Howie's two-way play.

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03-28-2011, 04:34 PM
  #441
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In Philly, he played RW for pretty much the first 3 years he was here, 07-08, 08-09, and 09-10. But in the 09-10 playoffs, the Hartnell-Briere-Leino line was formed, and Briere exploded in the playoffs. Briere is much, much more effective at center, where he has been this season. Not coincidentally, he has tied his career high for goals this year and will likely set a career high if he gets one more goal this year. But, you simply can't put him at center in an ATD because of his liability defensively and a lack of size. He's absolutely money in the playoffs though. You're kind of stuck here, because his best years are at center, but you can't put him at center in this scenario.
He's there as a complimentary player and a playmaker for snipers Shutt and Morenz. The best one available at this point, at that. Nobody was going to draft him as a C anyways most likely.

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03-28-2011, 04:38 PM
  #442
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If he's in your top 6 I suggest you have a hard-core checking line, 2007 Ducks style.
That is the whole point. I know he's a weak link, he's just a complimentary player like I said. I have one of the strongest 3rd lines in this league (IMHO).

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03-28-2011, 04:38 PM
  #443
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I'll add this on Cook vs Boucher: Though they may have been equal during their time together, wasn't Cook's western career a lot more spectacular?
In terms of scoring, it certainly was. Cook led the WCHL/WHL in scoring for three straight seasons while Boucher really only had one notable scoring year out west. Boucher played a very defensive role in Vancouver, however, and was rewarded for it with three 1st team all-star selections (same as Cook) in his time out west, so they were probably a lot closer overall than the numbers would indicate.

Their relative western league performances isn't how the canon on Boucher and Cook was formed, anyway.

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03-28-2011, 04:41 PM
  #444
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In terms of scoring, it certainly was. Cook led the WCHL/WHL in scoring for three straight seasons while Boucher really only had one notable scoring year out west. Boucher played a very defensive role in Vancouver, however, and was rewarded for it with three 1st team all-star selections (same as Cook) in his time out west, so they were probably a lot closer overall than the numbers would indicate.

Their relative western league performances isn't how the canon on Boucher and Cook was formed, anyway.
I see.

I wouldn't be that sure on the latter; Cook does tend to get boosted, in my experience, over great contemoraries (most notably Conacher) because of his great western career.

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03-28-2011, 04:43 PM
  #445
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I know, and I respect the testimony of contemporaries quite a lot. It would take more information than I've provided thus far for me to seriously equate Boucher to Morenz, but at this point they do seem to be quite a bit closer than we've all come to believe, and I'm kind of at a loss as to why Morenz was considered the better player. After doing a bit more digging...yeah, I'm pretty positive that Boucher was the better defensive player, as well. I don't have time to post all the material I have on Boucher's all-around game tonight, but I will try to do so tomorrow. I'll leave it up to Morenz's owner to post what he's got on Howie's two-way play.
Are you seriously proposing I have to prove Morenz was a better hockey player than Boucher?

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03-28-2011, 04:43 PM
  #446
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That is the whole point. I know he's a weak link, he's just a complimentary player like I said. I have one of the strongest 3rd lines in this league (IMHO).
Your third line is one of the strongest overall, but I'm not sure if they are one of the strongest defensively

Edit - I should say that I like you third line a lot, but I don't think they are the atd equivalent of the ducks line.

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03-28-2011, 04:49 PM
  #447
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We got a lot of flak for the Toews pick and today I see Franzen picked, and Kesler went a while ago. Are their resumes really any better than Toews? All I see is an extra season or two with a lower peak. It would seem to me that these guys would all be in the same tier.

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03-28-2011, 04:50 PM
  #448
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We got a lot of flak for the Toews pick and today I see Franzen picked, and Kesler went a while ago. Are their resumes really any better than Toews? All I see is an extra season or two with a lower peak. It would seem to me that these guys would all be in the same tier.
I don't know why you got flack for Toews TBH. He belongs as a 4th line C.

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03-28-2011, 04:50 PM
  #449
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I'll be honest, I don't like the Franzen pick much at all. He's a better value here than Toews was a while ago, I think, but again, lack of any longevity hurts, a lot. And he's injury prone.

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03-28-2011, 04:52 PM
  #450
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I'd take Kesler over Toews because of his established Selke resume, and the fact that he'll likely win it this year. Franzen has the added ability to play all 3 forward positions, and has 3 extremely good playoff runs to his credit, along with having a strong combination of size and skill. Not saying I like any of the picks, but I like the Kesler one the most of any of them because he has something definitive in a short career that he is extremely good at.

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