I don't think the compensation numbers are up yet and I wouldn't be able to formulate an opinion until that occurs. I doubt that anyone will attempt to sign Setoguchi though. Long shot would be Chicago but they have their own players to worry about.
if we use this years compensation, that would equal a 2nd round pick for 3 million right on the button.
if the contract went over 3,013,434 it would be a 1st and a 3rd round pick.
To me, if we're basing it off of that, anything less than that threshold that compensates with the 1st and a 3rd, I'd keep him. The team can afford to keep him, need his speed, and can move other players to accommodate that salary and what we need to fill out the rest of the roster.
I agree that whatever the threshold of a 1st is (say maybe 3.2) is absolutely necessary to even consider whether its worth while to let him go. The fact that this draft is excellent means I consider any it, where as this year, there is no player outside of the top 8-10 that I'd be willing to trade Seto for (granted that changes when a trade is necessary).
However, if that 1st is coming from Boston, Philly (unlikely), Pitt, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, LA, I turn it down unless the offer is ridiculous (3.75-4 million).
I don't see middle of the road teams throwing around offer sheets, because with parity, injuries and other issues, can mean the difference between being a playoff team and a top 5 pick (in an elite draft)- see Colorado's massive flop. Toronto made such a gamble (essentially, it was pretty much an offer sheet), and IMO, loss pretty big and Kessel is a much, much better player than Seto On that note, I think Stamkos, Parise, Weber, Turris, Callahan, Dubinsky, Bogosian, Voracek, and Yandle generating significantly more interest than Setoguchi, Wheeler, and those types. One thing workign against us however, is that the wingers in UFA suck hard. Only Gagne, Hejduk, and Selanne are more valuable wingers, and two of them (maybe three aren't going anywhere).
if its a one yr deal, ill go up to 4 million.
multi yr deal, ill match up to 3.5 million.
with where he was drafted, you have to keep him around to see how it turns out. he hasnt earned either number, so i cant see anyone offering this much (including us). ill take the picks if someone does (except Chicago, Detroit, or Vancouver, maybe Anaheim too). im not letting him go there.
Someone else came up with Raymond as a comp. Just about spot on in terms of player and Raymond got $2.5mil. Others near Seto are Brouwer, Versteeg, MacArthur and Stafford. They are in the vicinity and there are enough similar players out there that an offersheet is highly unlikely. Offersheets generally go to players who are a bit more rare (not necessarily more valuable).
That being said, DW acquiring a similar player from outside the org to fill the hole if he lets Seto walk on an offersheet is going to be more costly than $3mil. They don't have a replacement player in the prospect pipeline of Seto's level yet. He is probably more valuable to the Sharks than other orgs because many others have more similar or close to types in their pipelines.
Anybody know how many years until Seto is a UFA? If after next season, then I can see either a 1 yr deal @ $2.5m or 2 yrs at $2.75. Any more into his UFA and his cap hit will go up and like others have said, he's not ready to get that.
Setoguchi seems to like it here though. I doubt he'd accept an offer sheet that pays him an average of less than half of a million a year.
I agree. My guess is if he had gone for an offer sheet he could have probably gotten 2.75-3, simply because teams with room can gamble 3 mill and a 2nd pick on a guy with 2 20 goal seasons, grit, and speed.
I personally think a 2 year 2.5 mill deal would be reasonable, but if it cost more to keep him I'd be willing.
I doubt Seto would sign an offer sheet we couldn't match.
If he continues to play the way he does throughout his career, then you can almost draw comparison to Burrows. Which would be extremely disappointing.
Not good enough defensively. Poor performance on the PP.
I could easily see DW giving him the same contract this year. 1yr @ $1.7m
He really has no pull towards getting more pay on the bargaining table. Not on this team he doesn't at least. If negotiations go bad, I can defiantly see DW making an exception to sign him, but sell him at the TDL.
Based on his negotiations last year, there's no reason for me to believe that he'd sign an offer sheet. He had plenty of time last year to get one or sign one and didn't do so. I would like to hope that that would be the case this time around as well.