I want youth. Wings have enough experience. F Modano, Draper hasn't been bad, but you can't keep going back to that well.
Holmstrom has outlived his usefulness, but he isn't going anywhere. I just HOPE that he retires when his contract his up. You know he will get another deal if he wants to keep playing.
I would love some defensively responsible forwards. (This might be an overreaction from those massive gaffes by Flip and Franzen) Flip was the second goal right? Flip is responsible, but I am upset ATM. Franzen though....I defended him a tiny bit, but damn he must have read this thread and decided to screw with me.
I think Ericsson has hit his ceiling. Keep him with a VERY MODEST raise. I personally would ask for money back, but hey what can you do. I don't know if the Wings can do any better for his price range.
Miller and Eaves need to be resigned. They work hard.
I really have no problems with Salei considering the role he is playing. I would keep him and switch him up with Kindl for different situations until Kindl matures a tiny bit more.
Resign Lidstrom. The dude is playing lights out at his age. The rest of the team just isn't playing responsible enough.
Therefore, it is reasonable to consider a 5 yr contract for a defenseman ~33 yrs of age. Given the CBA, it is more unreasonable to consider a 3 yr contract for a 37 yr old goalie at something that's about 3x the league minimum. It's just not necessary.
But that's exactly where you begin to be inconsistent because you cling to those value judgments and fail to look at what actually happened. Since in your mind it's not a good idea to go 3 years to a then 36 year old... regardless of what actually happens you'll attack the deal.
Osgood's performance in 2008 when he made 800k and 2009 when he made 1.4 (against the cap) more than paid off the rest of his subsequent three year deal. It is impossible to conclude otherwise while simultaneously attempting to claim that it's perfectly fine for the Wings to carry Raffy's deal, which is 2 years longer and something like 300% more per year and 600% more in total, while his game steadily declines and still maintain even the faintest waft of consistency.
Further, Raffy's deal was issued with a no trade clause. So it's not even like you can cling to the fig leaf of a 35+ contract versus some wholly unfettered one.
So, again, I'll ask you this question. If you knew that Osgood would play at a very high level in at least two subsequent postseasons, and that he'd be at least competent in two regular seasons... you wouldn't sign him to a humongous 4 year 5 million dollar deal right now? Or a 3 year 4.2 mil deal?
Jim Howard just got a 2 year, 4.5 million dollar deal and we don't even know if he's any good in the playoffs.
It's not all about the 35+ rule, Fugu. It has to be about what actually happens out on the ice, too. Babies and bathwater. If I knew that Osgood would play well in this postseason but he'd be absolutely useless over most of the rest of the deal, I'd sign him to a 3 year deal at 1.4 per right now and be THRILLED the team will have great goaltending for the playoffs.
1.4 mil is next to nothing when it buys you (or bought you) playoff success. I'd add 1.4 mil a year over the next three to anybody's contract on the roster if I knew doing so would turn them into a playoff monster for at least one year.
And spare me the song and dance about ice time and linemates. He sees 2 minutes of PP time per game, has been the 2nd line center for a great part of the season, and plays 17 minutes a game, with only 39 seconds of that eaten away by the PK. And what is he on pace for? 45 points. Which is nice and all, but not when your defensive game has devolved and you offer few intangibles that this team doesn't already have in spades.
How many games is he on pace for?
This is largely the same old song and dance. People complain Fil isn't scoring enough, then conveniently forget to mention that for what he makes, it's not exactly like there are a bunch of other guys out there scoring more, and especially not who are scoring as much or more but who also have as solid an all-around game as Fil does.
That aside, on a team that's struggling with it's defensive coverage while leading or second in the NHL in goals scored I'm not exactly sure trading away a very good defensive forward for someone who scores more is exactly they way a team should look at going.
If anything the Wings should go the other way and trade an offensive player for someone who does more defensively.
I'd rather spend $3M on a guy who is, beyond the shadow of a doubt, a legit top 6 guy. I really just don't see Flip as a 2nd line center.
But you see Hudler and Cleary as top 6 forwards, and Hudler as a top line forward. Right.
And Erik Cole? What makes you think he's an actual top 6 forward in the West. The last time he came west he was a failure.
Good God. There are plenty of ways that the Wings could be a better team. Putting Hudler on the top line and bringing in a 32-33 year old once-failed East guy certainly aren't two of them.
But you see Hudler and Cleary as top 6 forwards, and Hudler as a top line forward. Right.
And Erik Cole? What makes you think he's an actual top 6 forward in the West. The last time he came west he was a failure.
Good God. There are plenty of ways that the Wings could be a better team. Putting Hudler on the top line and bringing in a 32-33 year old once-failed East guy certainly aren't two of them.
You're tiresome.
But thanks for making my point for me.
Hudler and Cleary aren't ideal top sixers. But who is on this team beyond D/Z/Franzen?
A forward like Cole, when he's not being killed by bad coaching in Edmonton, skates like the win, throws 222 hits, and can score 20-30 goals and 60 points.
I just picked a reasonable top 6 forward making $3M.
Val Filppula and his 38 points (ranking 58th among NHL centers) isn't magically going to turn into an offensive force.
If you can upgrade at Wing, you can move Helm up to line 3. Helm deserves the IT anyhow.
This is largely the same old song and dance. People complain Fil isn't scoring enough, then conveniently forget to mention that for what he makes, it's not exactly like there are a bunch of other guys out there scoring more, and especially not who are scoring as much or more but who also have as solid an all-around game as Fil does.
That aside, on a team that's struggling with it's defensive coverage while leading or second in the NHL in goals scored I'm not exactly sure trading away a very good defensive forward for someone who scores more is exactly they way a team should look at going.
If anything the Wings should go the other way and trade an offensive player for someone who does more defensively.
Filppula isn't "very good" defensively.
I'd give him a label no better than solid. And even that has cracks in it these days. Over the last two weeks, I've seen him caught from behind to turn the puck over in his own end at least three times. It finally cost the Wings yesterday.
I think I've found an interesting UFA. Ryan Jones.
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“Right now my mindset is to hopefully get something done here,” said Jones, who’s had a breakout season with 18 goals. “But I’ve earned the opportunity to be an unrestricted free agent. If it doesn’t work out I’ll have to go a different route.
“There’s been talks going on all along, whether it’s been numbers or trying to feel things out … by no means have either one of us moved on. My thoughts right now are I hope to be here.”
Jones is in an enviable position, having upped his stock from waiver-wire pickup to a commodity most teams covet — a blue-collar guy with decent hands who goes to the tough areas to score goals. What that’s worth, to the Oilers or 29 other teams if it comes to that, will determine where he winds up.
He is from Chatham, so there is a 50/50 chance he grew up a wings fan. I think he would be a nice fit, and give us a little more grit and finish. He probably signs with the Oil, but you never know.
The thing is that everything management has done so far was done with the idea in their heads that the team works.
If we go out in the 1st round or even go out with a whimper in the 2nd round management might be finally forced to admit to themselves that they've built something that isn't working.
I want youth. Wings have enough experience. F Modano, Draper hasn't been bad, but you can't keep going back to that well.
Holmstrom has outlived his usefulness, but he isn't going anywhere. I just HOPE that he retires when his contract his up. You know he will get another deal if he wants to keep playing.
I would love some defensively responsible forwards. (This might be an overreaction from those massive gaffes by Flip and Franzen) Flip was the second goal right? Flip is responsible, but I am upset ATM. Franzen though....I defended him a tiny bit, but damn he must have read this thread and decided to screw with me.
I think Ericsson has hit his ceiling. Keep him with a VERY MODEST raise. I personally would ask for money back, but hey what can you do. I don't know if the Wings can do any better for his price range.
Miller and Eaves need to be resigned. They work hard.
I really have no problems with Salei considering the role he is playing. I would keep him and switch him up with Kindl for different situations until Kindl matures a tiny bit more.
Resign Lidstrom. The dude is playing lights out at his age. The rest of the team just isn't playing responsible enough.
Let Miller go. Resign Eaves. We need to learn to let some kids come in. You say you want youth but you want to keep a bottom line guy. Let a kid like Mursak or Emmerton play their ways onto the roster. Both are very solid individuals and IMHO Emmerton could become a very smart, useful bottom line guy.
Ditch Salei, old..slow.. Not good.
Ditch Ericsson, I am done defending him.
Ditch Kindl, what you see now is probably what you're going to get with a minimal improvement. Trad,e him at the draft to move up or gain more picks.
Let Draper, Modano walk. Trade Hudler too. I'd only give Filppula one more year to get his god damn offensive game going then it's time to think about if you want to pay 3 million for a third line centerman or trade him and get some more youth going.
Bring up Smith, Sign a veteran, big physical defenseman and look into finding another dman. This team has no drive, we need to fix that.
The thing is that everything management has done so far was done with the idea in their heads that the team works.
If we go out in the 1st round or even go out with a whimper in the 2nd round management might be finally forced to admit to themselves that they've built something that isn't working.
They had the excuse last year that it was injuries, but I wasn't convinced it was JUST that given how the better teams could negate the Wings' best efforts when the team was clicking.
They had the excuse last year that it was injuries, but I wasn't convinced it was JUST that given how the better teams could negate the Wings' best efforts when the team was clicking.
Until they realize Lidstrom cannot log 30 minutes a night anymore, they will continue to have terrible defense. He's an allstar playing 22-24 minutes a night but the man just cannot log 30 minutes a night. Take those lost minutes and put them on inferior players and we now see the lapses in poor defense. We used to be able to just play out 3rd pairing 5 on 5 randomly but now we're forced to play 5 or all 6 dmen in at least 2+ situations. Holland needs to cut the **** and remove the dead weight on that last pairing.
This is largely the same old song and dance. People complain Fil isn't scoring enough, then conveniently forget to mention that for what he makes, it's not exactly like there are a bunch of other guys out there scoring more, and especially not who are scoring as much or more but who also have as solid an all-around game as Fil does.
I think the difference between a guy like Flip (and these others you cite) and the Drapers of the world is that GM's believe they're 20G/50-60 Pts players--- otherwise why pay them more than the $1.5-2MM the ilk of Draper would receive? That is the potential they see. The fact that they earned one of these contracts once doesn't mean they will always stay there. Their experience gets them a bit extra, but eventually they rise up beyond this level, or an RFA comes along and takes that slot.
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That aside, on a team that's struggling with it's defensive coverage while leading or second in the NHL in goals scored I'm not exactly sure trading away a very good defensive forward for someone who scores more is exactly they way a team should look at going.
If anything the Wings should go the other way and trade an offensive player for someone who does more defensively.
Interesting idea. Who do you see as the Wings forwards that are good defensively and why?
(Who do you dump then if the defensive gaffs are with the forward group?)
But that's exactly where you begin to be inconsistent because you cling to those value judgments and fail to look at what actually happened. Since in your mind it's not a good idea to go 3 years to a then 36 year old... regardless of what actually happens you'll attack the deal.
I think in this case that what did happen backs me up, but to the other point first. It's a value judgment based on probability. Age is a huge factor in player performance. I won't rehash all the studies, but it's quite acceptable to say there are peak performance ages for each position, and that an NHL'ers career span is fairly well bounded on both ends (start to finish as far as mins and maxes).
I put Ozzie into the category of high risk due to age and most recent years' performances. You do not plan on playing him for more than 40G per season; he's had some injuries to which goalies are prone to having frequently (groin); injuries are harder to recover from as you get older; and the CBA shackles me to a decision if a player is over 35 when signed. You like to avoid this latter point from a negotiating point a GM can legitimately leverage. It's not that he wants it this way, but the guys who crafted the CBA forced it on everyone.
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Osgood's performance in 2008 when he made 800k and 2009 when he made 1.4 (against the cap) more than paid off the rest of his subsequent three year deal. It is impossible to conclude otherwise while simultaneously attempting to claim that it's perfectly fine for the Wings to carry Raffy's deal, which is 2 years longer and something like 300% more per year and 600% more in total, while his game steadily declines and still maintain even the faintest waft of consistency.
Please address my points instead of repeating what you posted when I responded to this.... The ages of the players, the position and market value of these positions, and the CBA. Please take those steps.
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Further, Raffy's deal was issued with a no trade clause. So it's not even like you can cling to the fig leaf of a 35+ contract versus some wholly unfettered one.
Well, you tell me. Why would Holland consider an NTC for Rafalski when he was wooing him as an UFA?
Also consider that puck moving D NHL-wide contract values have been trending upwards the entire CBA while goalies values have been declining quite steadily. You tell me what causes this dynamic.
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So, again, I'll ask you this question. If you knew that Osgood would play at a very high level in at least two subsequent postseasons, and that he'd be at least competent in two regular seasons... you wouldn't sign him to a humongous 4 year 5 million dollar deal right now? Or a 3 year 4.2 mil deal?
Nope. The market would dictate what I could get in the goalie market, including trades. Ozzie has had some of the worst regular season stats of ALL goalies for a while now. Attribute to age or whatever, but he's simply not irreplaceable when you had one of the best team defenses in the world in front of him. Even Howard has looked better than he is (so go see my other thread from those nerds that study these things).
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Jim Howard just got a 2 year, 4.5 million dollar deal and we don't even know if he's any good in the playoffs.
He's young, supposedly trending upward, and that's cheap for a goalie whom you expect to play 60 regular season games.
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It's not all about the 35+ rule, Fugu. It has to be about what actually happens out on the ice, too. Babies and bathwater. If I knew that Osgood would play well in this postseason but he'd be absolutely useless over most of the rest of the deal, I'd sign him to a 3 year deal at 1.4 per right now and be THRILLED the team will have great goaltending for the playoffs.
1.4 mil is next to nothing when it buys you (or bought you) playoff success. I'd add 1.4 mil a year over the next three to anybody's contract on the roster if I knew doing so would turn them into a playoff monster for at least one year.
You cannot just sit Ozzie for the regular season and turn him on during the playoffs. Especially if he's a geezer. He has to play consistently (even if that's half of the games), and then he has to be at least okay consistently.
Let Miller go. Resign Eaves. We need to learn to let some kids come in. You say you want youth but you want to keep a bottom line guy. Let a kid like Mursak or Emmerton play their ways onto the roster. Both are very solid individuals and IMHO Emmerton could become a very smart, useful bottom line guy.
Ditch Salei, old..slow.. Not good.
Ditch Ericsson, I am done defending him.
Ditch Kindl, what you see now is probably what you're going to get with a minimal improvement. Trad,e him at the draft to move up or gain more picks.
Let Draper, Modano walk. Trade Hudler too. I'd only give Filppula one more year to get his god damn offensive game going then it's time to think about if you want to pay 3 million for a third line centerman or trade him and get some more youth going.
Bring up Smith, Sign a veteran, big physical defenseman and look into finding another dman. This team has no drive, we need to fix that.
Agree on most of this, but if you ditch Salei, Ericsson and Kindl, that's replacing three bottom end defenseman all at once. I don't know what they'll try to re-sign Ericsson for, but I'd guess it'd be cheaper to keep at least one of Kindl or E than to bring in all new guys that are the same or better.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Holland took a chance on signing another goaltender too. Ozzy's done it seems, and unless he impresses this postseason, Howard does not have a strong hold on the job. Plus Kenny has shown a history of bringing in seasoned veterans when given the opportunity. It's too bad Nabby didn't report and the Islanders may try to toll his contract. Because I have to think Holland was thinking of next year too when he made that deal.
part of me wants detroit to get smoked again tomorrow. that would be rock bottom for the season, in the final game of the season. everybody would be picking them to lose everyone would expect the upset, and there you have it. adversity. red wings fuel.
I think the difference between a guy like Flip (and these others you cite) and the Drapers of the world is that GM's believe they're 20G/50-60 Pts players--- otherwise why pay them more than the $1.5-2MM the ilk of Draper would receive? That is the potential they see. The fact that they earned one of these contracts once doesn't mean they will always stay there. Their experience gets them a bit extra, but eventually they rise up beyond this level, or an RFA comes along and takes that slot.
Enh. Again, this is just largely a case where people simply don't know what the actual market is for guys. They just think the guy on their team should be doing more than he is.
Smaller perspective.
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Interesting idea. Who do you see as the Wings forwards that are good defensively and why?
(Who do you dump then if the defensive gaffs are with the forward group?)
I think the Wings forwards who are below average defensively are (in no particular order): Homer, Bert, Modano, and Hudler. I'm more than comfortable with the Wings upgrading defensively by making roster moves among that group. IMO the rest of the roster is at least average defensively and in some cases significantly above average, so I'd rather see the team shave off the bad defensive players where the greatest immediate defensive improvements can be made quickly.
And I don't think the defensive gaffes are just with the forward group... it's just that the Wings are unlikely to be able to make any substantive improvements to the pure defense of their defensive corps as long as Lidstrom and Rafalski are under contract. It's not terribly probably to significantly improve the defensive play on the blue line by making adjustments to the third pairing, adjustments which may only have around 2-3 mil of space with which to be completed.
Detroit should look at the SEL for a couple of defencemen to take the places of Salei and Kindl who simply need to go.
Magnus Johansson (1973) is old but still has a couple of years in the tank, and would thrive in the Detroit puck posession style. Sebastian Erixon (1989)is a small guy that reminds me of a young Rafalski, really smooth and with a good hockey sense. Mattias Ekholm (1990) was one of four nominees as rookie of the year 2010-2011.
I don't know who these guys belong to, but they should be availible for a couple of medium picks, and they would fit perfectly in Detroit - and, they would be cheap.
I think in this case that what did happen backs me up, but to the other point first. It's a value judgment based on probability.
But we already know what happened, Fugu. Look, you can have the opinion that signing 35+ guys to multi-year deals is a bad idea. To a certain degree I share that opinion. But what's happening here is that you're trying to justify that position as universally accurate, when as we've seen with Osgood it really isn't... at least, not if you are applying the same standards to his deal that you have to Rafalski's.
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Please address my points instead of repeating what you posted when I responded to this.... The ages of the players, the position and market value of these positions, and the CBA. Please take those steps.
And I did. What you're attempting to do here is apply things which are largely irrelevant to the debate.
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Well, you tell me. Why would Holland consider an NTC for Rafalski when he was wooing him as an UFA?
Oh good grief.
For the same reasons that he signed Osgood to a multi-year deal when he was a 35+ player.
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Also consider that puck moving D NHL-wide contract values have been trending upwards the entire CBA while goalies values have been declining quite steadily. You tell me what causes this dynamic.
Because there are more good goalies than their are good puck moving dmen. And, again, this is largely irrelevant to the debate because we're talking about Osgood barely making what many NHL backups make, while taking the team to a Cup Finals and winning a Cup.
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Nope. The market would dictate what I could get in the goalie market, including trades.
Then thank the Good Lord Jesus that you don't make roster decisions for the Wings.
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Ozzie has had some of the worst regular season stats of ALL goalies for a while now. Attribute to age or whatever, but he's simply not irreplaceable when you had one of the best team defenses in the world in front of him. Even Howard has looked better than he is (so go see my other thread from those nerds that study these things).
Nobody's suggested Osgood is irreplaceable, so I can only assume that this is just an attempt of yours to insert a red herring into the debate. What I am saying is that having a goalie play as well as Osgood did, even in a short window, is more than worth the 5 million dollars he was paid over 4 years.
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He's young, supposedly trending upward, and that's cheap for a goalie whom you expect to play 60 regular season games.
I see. So a 2 year 4.5 million dollar deal to a goalie like Howard makes sense to you... but a 3 year 4.5 mil deal going to a goalie coming off a Cup Finals win doesn't.
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You cannot just sit Ozzie for the regular season and turn him on during the playoffs. Especially if he's a geezer. He has to play consistently (even if that's half of the games), and then he has to be at least okay consistently.
Again, you aren't really listening here. I am saying we already know what Osgood did. I am using what he already did to try and get you to evaluate what that level of play is worth.
What I am understanding your position to be is that if a goalie is lights out in two playoffs with a good regular season, a mediocre regular season and an awful regular season... that guy isn't worth 1.4 mil a year to you.
As for the last paragraph, it's basically that I believe that a 37 yo goalie and 38 yo goalie and 39 yo goalie or a 40 yo goalie aren't necessarily comparable creatures. That's the age factor for that position that comes into play. The decay rate is another way to try to word it.
Had you made the same argument for a 30 yr old Ozzie with the same stats, I'd be on your side of the argument.
Depends how you look at it.
If D-Z are separated, do you want to spend $3M on your third line centers while bums like Homer and Bert are skating on your top two lines?
Would you rather have this;
Hudler Datsyuk Cleary
Homer Zetterberg Franzen
Bert Flip Abdelkader
Mursak Helm Eaves
Or this:
Hudler Datsyuk Erik Cole
Cleary Zetterberg Franzen
Bert Helm Eaves
Mursak Abdelkader Homer
I'd rather spend $3M on a guy who is, beyond the shadow of a doubt, a legit top 6 guy. I really just don't see Flip as a 2nd line center.
Eh, we'll just have to disagree because I don't see Erik Cole as being an upgrade over Flip at all. He strung together a couple good seasons I guess. Certainly no more of a "legit" top-6 guy than Valtteri if you want to put him on the wing instead of centering the third line which Helm could probably handle at this point.
That lineup comparison is a bit deceiving though. Obviously the one that buries Homer on the 4th line is going to look better even if it will never happen.
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Originally Posted by zetterberg40
Let Miller go. Resign Eaves. We need to learn to let some kids come in. You say you want youth but you want to keep a bottom line guy. Let a kid like Mursak or Emmerton play their ways onto the roster. Both are very solid individuals and IMHO Emmerton could become a very smart, useful bottom line guy.
Ditch Salei, old..slow.. Not good.
Ditch Ericsson, I am done defending him.
Ditch Kindl, what you see now is probably what you're going to get with a minimal improvement. Trad,e him at the draft to move up or gain more picks.
Let Draper, Modano walk. Trade Hudler too. I'd only give Filppula one more year to get his god damn offensive game going then it's time to think about if you want to pay 3 million for a third line centerman or trade him and get some more youth going.
Bring up Smith, Sign a veteran, big physical defenseman and look into finding another dman. This team has no drive, we need to fix that.
You had me until the bolded. What the heck lead you to that conclusion? Kindl is only 24 and looks better all the time.
