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Conklin Signed - Long Term

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Old
07-08-2004, 01:09 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
My response on Oilfans was much more profane and rude and won't be repeated here, needless to say though, 1.5 million is too damn much. MAYBE if it is 4 years, or 3 years plus an option - all at 1.5 - I can accept it. Just a bad deal imo and one that makes me believe that Smith and Brewer will DP Lowe bad.

A guy doubles his salary on 42 decent games and one international tournament?


YKOil
My thoughts exactly. I was expecting numbers along the lines of 'Elvis Lives' first post in this thread. This seems like a significant gamble, and an overpay ... and it is a concern for a couple of reasons IMO:

1. As you say ... it makes you wonder about how he will negotiate with Brewer and Smith.

2. As Digger and Matts have said ... does this imply that it won't be Conkannen?? But rather Conklin as the No.1 and Markannen as the backup? I hope not, I'd like to think that both will get an equal chance.

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07-08-2004, 01:10 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
Like I said - this does not bode well for the Smith & Brewer negotiations.YKOil
Do you really think that the agents will try to use a rookie goalies contract as a relevent basis for the market for a them? I don't see how it has any correlation.

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07-08-2004, 01:13 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by thome_26
Do you really think that the agents will try to use a rookie goalies contract as a relevent basis for the market for a them? I don't see how it has any correlation.
Agreed.

Yeah, I admit I was hoping for a 1.2-1.3 million salary range, but a couple of hundred thousand isn't a HUGE deal.

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07-08-2004, 01:20 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
in Millions

1.55 -- Denis
1.10 -- Nurminen
1.20 -- Vokoun
1.10 -- Legace
1.00 -- Garon
0.88 -- Kipper
0.56 -- Esche
0.55 -- Aebischer
0.55 -- Raycroft

And I would take someone like Biron at 2.20 over Conklin as well. Also, Gerber made 500k and Noronen made 550k last year.

1.5 million is NOT a great deal.
None of these players signed after they became starting goalies (except maybe Denis... I'm not sure there).

I'm sure if any one of these guys was an RFA on the Oilers' roster right now they'd command more than $1.5M.

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07-08-2004, 01:32 AM
  #55
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Staios' contract has more impact on Brewer and Smith.

Best case scenario: JDD pulls a Raycroft and has a rapid development as a pro and is able to step into a starting roll in 2 years. The Oilers decline the option on Conklin and possibly negotiate a reduced, longer term deal to keep him as a back-up or "steady" veteran.

Worst case scenario: JDD develops slowly and is unable to make the jump for more than 3 years. Conklin proves to be incapable of being an everyday NHL starter. The Oilers are without a starter and must get a free agent or deal for one.

Middle scenario: Conklin proves to be a good NHL starter and 2.5M ends up being reasonable in year 3. Delauriers and Dubnyk get another season of development.

Why are people trying to compare Conklin to Raycroft, Biron, Denis and so on. First off, don't compare Conklin's salary to Raycroft's when the latter isn't even known yet. Raycroft is a RFA and is sure to demand and get a big raise. And what would Buffalo ask for in a deal for Biron? Columbus for Denis? An extra 200K to keep your guy rather than lose assets to acquire someone "cheaper and better" isn't a bad move at all.

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07-08-2004, 01:33 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26
Do you really think that the agents will try to use a rookie goalies contract as a relevent basis for the market for a them? I don't see how it has any correlation.
I'm sure that's not what YKoil meant. Because he is a clever guy and this is not a sensible statement.

IMO this does cast aspersions on Lowe's negotiating abilities.

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07-08-2004, 01:36 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
None of these players signed after they became starting goalies (except maybe Denis... I'm not sure there).

I'm sure if any one of these guys was an RFA on the Oilers' roster right now they'd command more than $1.5M.

That's one way of looking at it, here's another:

In the history of the NHL, has any other GM ever awarded $1.5 M per year to a 25+ year old goalie with 60 or fewer games of NHL experience? Ever, even once? Anything even close?

I honestly don't know, but I doubt it. I think Lowe may have set a precedent here.

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07-08-2004, 02:33 AM
  #58
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In an earlier post someone asked about more recent Goalies who got a late start... The 1st one that comes to mind is Ed Belfour who was 27 in his rookie year, & i'm sure that there are several more out there...So it isn't a big deal that Conklin was 27 in his rookie year, he still potentially has a long career ahead of him if he keeps going in his current direction career wise...

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07-08-2004, 06:50 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I'm sure that's not what YKoil meant. Because he is a clever guy and this is not a sensible statement.

IMO this does cast aspersions on Lowe's negotiating abilities.
geez, that is a nice way to word it Igor

a guy is tempted to say too nice ?

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07-08-2004, 08:00 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
in Millions

1.55 -- Denis
1.10 -- Nurminen
1.20 -- Vokoun
1.10 -- Legace
1.00 -- Garon
0.88 -- Kipper
0.56 -- Esche
0.55 -- Aebischer
0.55 -- Raycroft

And I would take someone like Biron at 2.20 over Conklin as well. Also, Gerber made 500k and Noronen made 550k last year.

1.5 million is NOT a great deal.


YKOil
Legace, Kipper, Esche, Aebischer, Raycroft and Vokoun will all be paid more than that very shortly... in fact, I beleive at least 5 of them are free agents awaiting new contracts.

Right now, Conklin is the 18th highest paid goaltender in the NHL, and once everything gets settled (in terms of the rest of the goalies), he'll probably be around 21st-23rd.

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07-08-2004, 08:18 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
None of these players signed after they became starting goalies (except maybe Denis... I'm not sure there).

I'm sure if any one of these guys was an RFA on the Oilers' roster right now they'd command more than $1.5M.
Exactly lets see if any sign for less than 1.5 million dollars when there contracts come up.

I looked at those goalies but noted the same thing they were all backups when they signed.

I think arguing this contract as a HUGE overpay is a stretch. I think it is in line with a new starters salary in the NHL.

As for Biron (somone mentioned him earlier), his save percentage is almost identical to Conklins and his GAA is worst I don't see how I would take him over Conklin. In Birons first year, the year he played 42 games his save percentage was not as good.

Biron is obviously more experienced but I woudn't take him over Conklin.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 07-08-2004 at 08:22 AM.
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07-08-2004, 10:23 AM
  #62
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I have too admit that I am a little surprised that this contract is being critisized to the extent that it is.

I anticipated that Lowe would simply give Conklin his qualifying offer and a 1 year deal. I figured Conklin would accept.

Based on that, this deal appears to be a little pricey.

However, as a believer in Conklin, I expect to see him put up good numbers next year and proove his worth. That would result in a very difficult negotiation a year from now and considering that legitimate starters are easily over 2.5 mil, Lowe would be faced with possibly giving up bigger money down the road.
It was a gamble that I expected Lowe to take.

Essentially though he just took the same gamble. Instead of facing potentially big money in a year, he spread it out over three years and takes a RFA off the agenda next summer. Of course the gamble is that Conklin doesn't pan out the way everyone hopes and some anticipate.

In the end the question boils down to what is most likely, does Conklin continue to improve thus making the contract very reasonable at the end of three years or does he regress and prove to not be a capable starter in which case he becomes somewhat overpaid?

Obviously Lowe trusts that he will get better. If Lowe is right then it's a good deal.

A couple other points;

- even at 1.5 mil the contract is still reasonable enough to unload even if Conklin is simply a career back up

- how many people said that Sutter is a genious because he KNEW how good Kiprusoff could be (a point I dispute but anyways...), apply the same logic to the Oiler brass and maybe this is simply a case of the team knowing a diamond in the rough

-Perhaps Kiprusoff is an exception but how well would it go over a year from now if Lowe was faced with a 3 or 4 mil contract like Sutter is likely facing, and it leaked that he could have had Conklin for 1.5 with a 2.5 option?

- in overall value, did Conklin provide more to the team than Oates last year? A deal that everyone was on board with when Lowe initiated it.

- Other goalies that were 27-28 when they really broke in;

Kiprusoff (27), Rolosson (27), Kolzig (27), Chechmanek (29), Hasek (28)

Obviously some are better than others but the point can still be made that Conklin's age shouldn't be an issue. Factor in that he went the college route then a couple years of seasoning in the AHL and the time line doesn't really suggest late bloomer at all (at least not too me).

If he went the Jr route and then to the AHL at 21, NHL as a back up until 24 or 25 then is everyone more comfortable? I don't think that would be the case, look at Biron who was brought up at a younger age and showed ups and downs while he matures. By all rights he will be a very good goalie, by many peoples opinions he isn't really better than Conklin. He has just been in the show longer.

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07-08-2004, 10:38 AM
  #63
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My main worry was that the contract was going to start at 1.5, then rapidly escalate like the Brewer and York contracts.

2.5 is a big jump at the end, but at a team option that makes it a carrot to dangle...IMO a good move.

The first two years at 1.5/1.5? They obviously have faith that he'll become the unquestioned #1, and are paying him as such. I doubt Markkanen is thrilled to see that the competition for starting goalie is basically over before it began, but that's life.

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Old
07-08-2004, 10:39 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
IMO this does cast aspersions on Lowe's negotiating abilities.
Yep. For every Moreau (GREAT) or Smith contract (very good) there is a Brewer (IRRESPONSIBLE) or Conklin (bad) one. That kind of inconsistency hampers the team in future dealings and creates nought but bad feelings.

On one hand I am sure Moreau the professional hockey player realizes that Conklin, in getting a good deal for himself, did well and kudos to him for getting it. On the other hand I am sure Moreau, the blood-and-guts guy who took a PAY CUT based on principle and desire, is thinking (even just a little bit) F*&K LOWE - NEXT TIME I WANT WHAT I DESERVE! :mad:

It doesn't matter that one is a potential starting goalie and that the other is, nominally, the 3rd line winger... and alternate captain... they are both players.

What do you think Smyth's agent is thinking right now? Lowe busted Smyth's nuts the last time. He tries that again and Smyth is outta here - guaranteed. Truth be told, because of this contract, my suspicion is that Smyth is gone.

BECAUSE OF THIS CONTRACT Lowe has lost whatever claim he had to sticking to 'fiscally responsible' contracts when it comes to those negotiations.

Any player agent looking across the table when Lowe utters those words will do one of two things:

-- swallow his dick because represents a player like Isbister who sits on the bubble regardless

OR

-- laugh in Lowe's face

IMO, there is no way Brewer will sign for less than $3 million now and no way that Smith wll sign for less than Brewer (he is team captain after all).

Awful contract. No question about it.


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Old
07-08-2004, 10:46 AM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Legace, Kipper, Esche, Aebischer, Raycroft and Vokoun will all be paid more than that very shortly... in fact, I beleive at least 5 of them are free agents awaiting new contracts.

Right now, Conklin is the 18th highest paid goaltender in the NHL, and once everything gets settled (in terms of the rest of the goalies), he'll probably be around 21st-23rd.
Missing an important point there db - ALL of those guys had a LONG, and mostly successful, history as quality back-ups before they went to the #1 spot. Of course Conklin does have that 42 games of pure unadulterated excellence... wher he played BARELY over .500 hockey!

grrrr


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07-08-2004, 11:04 AM
  #66
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If you like Conklin, this deal looks okay.

If you think he's still a backup, this aint a good deal at all.

Here's my worry, which seems very likely to me: Conklin is unable to show he's a starting goaltender next year, Lowe is forced to make a trade for a veteran starting goaltender, and he's stuck with three guys, one of the backups making $1.5 million.

Sure, if Conklin takes his 40-some games experience and international experience next year and becomes a starter, that's great, but honestly, do you guys really think this guy is going to do it? Reach into your heart of hearts: Do you think that Ty Conklin is the answer in goal?

Sorry, some of you guys have way, way more faith in these two backups than I do.

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07-08-2004, 11:05 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
That's one way of looking at it, here's another:

In the history of the NHL, has any other GM ever awarded $1.5 M per year to a 25+ year old goalie with 60 or fewer games of NHL experience? Ever, even once? Anything even close?

I honestly don't know, but I doubt it. I think Lowe may have set a precedent here.
That's a very specific question. I don't know either. I don't know if there are any 25+ goalies with less than 60 games of experience that signed a contract to be the team's starter (without having 0 games NHL experience, like Cechmanek).

I only had the chance to look up a few goalies, and none fit the criteria.

- Turco signed for $3.6/4.2 in the first two years of his deal after playing 112 games.
- Cechmanek made $3.5M after 105 GP, and had made $1M/yr prior
- Kiprusoff's played 80 games and I think he'll make a lot more than $1.5.

Most players I saw were under a rookie/backup contract the year they became starters and then jumped to the $3-4M range at the first renegotiation.

The lowest contract I saw for a player that had been assigned the starter role was Biron... $1.9 & 2.2 over his two year contract that ended this year.

I don't mind the $1.5M, but the $2.5M option seems excessive to me... $1.5M/yr over three years should've been sufficient.

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07-08-2004, 11:09 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by spaz44
Hate to say that but it's true. The average salary in the NHL is 1.67 million dollars.

The only way this was a bad contract IMO is if raised signifcantly in the second year, it did not and if the Oilers can walk away in the third year.

1.5 million for a starting goalie. I looked through NHLPA.com and was very hard pressed to find any starting goalies earning that little.

I find goalies that played ONE measly game last year that got paid more.

Good point, If Conks is going to be a starting goalie, he should get paid like a starting goalie....but will he paly like a starting goalie?

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07-08-2004, 11:14 AM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
In the history of the NHL, has any other GM ever awarded $1.5 M per year to a 25+ year old goalie with 60 or fewer games of NHL experience? Ever, even once? Anything even close?
When looking back in history, can you really use 1.5 as a bench mark or do you have to consider what goalies were going for at the time?

With a league average salary of 1.9 mil is 1.5 an obscene number?

10 years ago when the league average was 1.1 mil would you consider 850 k as an overpay for a similar situation?

Ten years ago when the best goalies were making 2.5 mil, would 470 K be considered an overpay? Is 1.5 mil still an over pay when the best goalies are making 8 mil today?

It's all relative to the times.

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07-08-2004, 11:21 AM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
Missing an important point there db - ALL of those guys had a LONG, and mostly successful, history as quality back-ups before they went to the #1 spot. Of course Conklin does have that 42 games of pure unadulterated excellence... wher he played BARELY over .500 hockey!

grrrr


YKOil
Games played before said goalies started a season where they played more games than any other goalie on their roster, i.e. the 'starter' assignment:

Aebischer - 69 games, record: 32-25-3
Esche - 88 games, record: 30-33-9
Kiprusoff - 48 games, record: 14-21-3
Legace - 105 games, record: 54-25-13
Raycroft - 21 games, record: 6-9-1
Vokoun - 137 games, record: 39-69-14

The only two guys with more wins than losses...backups for Colorado and Detroit.

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07-08-2004, 11:37 AM
  #71
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Heres what Roger Millions had to say about Conks over at CP

Quote:
I will say this about Conklin...friends of mine in the league think he could be the leagues next great goaltender...he is very athletic like Miikka and quite intelligent...I am very high on him
Quote:
Good friends of mine that are goaltenders really think he is good. I would worry more about that teams defensive play than Conklin.

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07-08-2004, 11:44 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by dem
Heres what Roger Millions had to say about Conks over at CP
Well that sucks.

I had high hopes for Conklin but if ROGER MILLIONS is high on the guy I will have to reconsider my position.

That guy called the Flames one of the most talented teams in the NHL right now. I think he called the exciting too....

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07-08-2004, 11:45 AM
  #73
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07-08-2004, 11:51 AM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Thompson
If you like Conklin, this deal looks okay.

If you think he's still a backup, this aint a good deal at all.

Here's my worry, which seems very likely to me: Conklin is unable to show he's a starting goaltender next year, Lowe is forced to make a trade for a veteran starting goaltender, and he's stuck with three guys, one of the backups making $1.5 million.

Sure, if Conklin takes his 40-some games experience and international experience next year and becomes a starter, that's great, but honestly, do you guys really think this guy is going to do it? Reach into your heart of hearts: Do you think that Ty Conklin is the answer in goal?

Sorry, some of you guys have way, way more faith in these two backups than I do.
Exactly! Ty Conklin has proved nothing except that he is a decent backup. I thought Ty was some what dissapointing last year when he failed to grab the ball from the floundering Tommy Salo and take off with it. His average play forced Mac-T to keep starting Tommy in hopes that Salo would enter into one of his hot streaks. At this point in his career Conklin is a guy who you can throw in the net and feel safe that he won't lose you the game but at the same time you can be sure he isn't gonna win it for you either. I have way more faith in Jussi becoming the starter on this team and when that happens 1.5 million will seem like a big overpayment.

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07-08-2004, 11:54 AM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Thompson
If you like Conklin, this deal looks okay.

If you think he's still a backup, this aint a good deal at all.

Here's my worry, which seems very likely to me: Conklin is unable to show he's a starting goaltender next year, Lowe is forced to make a trade for a veteran starting goaltender, and he's stuck with three guys, one of the backups making $1.5 million.

Sure, if Conklin takes his 40-some games experience and international experience next year and becomes a starter, that's great, but honestly, do you guys really think this guy is going to do it? Reach into your heart of hearts: Do you think that Ty Conklin is the answer in goal?

Sorry, some of you guys have way, way more faith in these two backups than I do.
Our confidence level is about the same as the canucks have with Cloutier.

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