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Conklin Signed - Long Term

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Old
07-08-2004, 12:06 PM
  #76
copperandblue
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HotToddy
I thought Ty was some what dissapointing last year when he failed to grab the ball from the floundering Tommy Salo and take off with it. His average play forced Mac-T to keep starting Tommy in hopes that Salo would enter into one of his hot streaks.
I remember it a little differently (but then again I do have a suspect memory).

There were certainly times when he looked less than ordinary BUT when he played he was almost always ahead of Salo.

He had his first stretch when Salo was injured at the beginning of the season and then Conkin had his groin injury. That is when Salo started playing again.

Conklin came back and played better than Salo again but broke his hand. That forced Salo back into the net. When Conklin came back, Salo was moved.

I am not sure it's fair to say he FAILED to grab the ball from Tommy.

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07-08-2004, 12:07 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HotToddy
Exactly! Ty Conklin has proved nothing except that he is a decent backup. I thought Ty was some what dissapointing last year when he failed to grab the ball from the floundering Tommy Salo and take off with it. His average play forced Mac-T to keep starting Tommy in hopes that Salo would enter into one of his hot streaks. At this point in his career Conklin is a guy who you can throw in the net and feel safe that he won't lose you the game but at the same time you can be sure he isn't gonna win it for you either. I have way more faith in Jussi becoming the starter on this team and when that happens 1.5 million will seem like a big overpayment.
Fair enough, but to be honest I wasn't all that enamoured of Markkanen when on his first go around here.

To me he's always been a guy with good puckhandling skills and a glove hand...and not much else.

IMO Conklin has a greater chance to be a #1.

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07-08-2004, 12:19 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
In the history of the NHL, has any other GM ever awarded $1.5 M per year to a 25+ year old goalie with 60 or fewer games of NHL experience? Ever, even once? Anything even close?

I honestly don't know, but I doubt it. I think Lowe may have set a precedent here.
What? Of all the Lowe cheerleaders and apologists on here ... none can find even one precedent? Surely there was at least ONE out there in the modern history of the league??? But apparently not.

I guess that means he's set another one (Brewer being the first).

Welcome to Milbury-country!

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07-08-2004, 12:24 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
another mitigating factor is that Conklin's temperment is a lot more stable than Salo . . . Ty is very confident. I don't see him blowing up any time soon. He may not get any better, but I don't see him as a high risk guy.
This is a good point. Ty is very confident. I remember Mac-T saying when they first brought him up that every time he got cut from training camp in the past, Conks would look at him like they were absolutely crazy. He is also a pretty funny guy in interviews.

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07-08-2004, 12:33 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
What? Of all the Lowe cheerleaders and apologists on here ... none can find even one precedent? Surely there was at least ONE out there in the modern history of the league??? But apparently not.

I guess that means he's set another one (Brewer being the first).

Welcome to Milbury-country!
Can you find one with those criteria that's been appointed the starter the same year his contract is up... regardless of what he's signed for?

Cechmanek got $1M/yr for 0 GP.


Last edited by MrMackey: 07-08-2004 at 12:37 PM.
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07-08-2004, 12:35 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
What? Of all the Lowe cheerleaders and apologists on here ... none can find even one precedent? Surely there was at least ONE out there in the modern history of the league??? But apparently not.

I guess that means he's set another one (Brewer being the first).

Welcome to Milbury-country!

I don't really understand this argument at all. As copperandblue above mentioned, you have to take into consideration what other goalies were being paid at the time. Using todays numbers to compare with historical numbers is nonsensical. I think Dawgbone's numbers (that TC will be around the 21st-23rd ranked goaltender in terms of salary) is a much more appropriate measure.

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07-08-2004, 12:40 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PineJockey
I think Dawgbone's numbers (that TC will be around the 20-something ranked goaltender in terms of salary) is a much more appropriate measure.
Again, one brings up the question: Why?

Conklin has not proven he's a top 30 goaltender yet, nevermind a top 20. Why does he deserve that money based on, as other posters have said, 40-some games in the NHL?

I should mention that I actually don't mind Conklin and I have a feeling he could prove me wrong on the Oilers goaltending front. But I also realize that the chances of that happening are probobly at best only as good as him failing at this next year.

I think the thing that bothered me the most about this that if he doesn't succeed, Lowe has an overpaid backup on his hands.

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07-08-2004, 12:50 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
What? Of all the Lowe cheerleaders and apologists on here ... none can find even one precedent? Surely there was at least ONE out there in the modern history of the league??? But apparently not.

I guess that means he's set another one (Brewer being the first).

Welcome to Milbury-country!
Well if you want to hard line it, then these will probably be discounted. Considering that no two situations are identical, then there could be some precedence here;

Hasek played 53 games up to 1994. In 1995 he played 68 (I think) in the last year of his contract and susequently jumped 300+% in salary to 2.15 million. That year, the highest paid player made 6.5 mil. Hasek was in the top 25 salary wise and played a mere 121 games.

Steve Shields played a total of 68 games going into the 01 season and was signed for 1.65 mil.

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07-08-2004, 12:55 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Thompson
Again, one brings up the question: Why?

Conklin has not proven he's a top 30 goaltender yet, nevermind a top 20. Why does he deserve that money based on, as other posters have said, 40-some games in the NHL?
Probably because the other 10-15 potential starters below him on the payscale aren't up for contract renewal. Last year he would've been the 29th highest paid goalie.

These are the contracts between $1.5 & Conklin from 03/04:

28. Denis, Marc $ 1,550,000
Hnilicka, Milan $ 1,450,000
Snow, Garth $ 1,313,000
Potvin, Felix $ 1,300,000
Fleury, Marc-Andre $ 1,240,000
Vokoun, Tomas $ 1,200,000
Shields, Steve $ 1,200,000
Hedberg, Johan $ 1,200,000
DiPietro, Rick $ 1,182,500
Hurme, Jani $ 1,100,000
Johnson, Brent $ 1,100,000
Legace, Manny $ 1,100,000
Nurminen, Pasi $ 1,100,000
Grahame, John $ 1,000,000
Garon, Mathieu $ 1,000,000
Kiprusoff, Miikka $ 880,000
Aubin, J.S. $ 870,000
45. Conklin, Ty $ 860,000

I don't think it would be hard for Conklin's agent to argue that he should be at about the $1.5M mark if he's about to become the team's starter.

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Old
07-08-2004, 01:03 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Thompson
I think the thing that bothered me the most about this that if he doesn't succeed, Lowe has an overpaid backup on his hands.
Yeah, but you can say for nearly every team in the NHL.

Cloutier doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.
Turek doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.
Lalime doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.
Cechmanek doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.
Vokoun doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.
Burke doesn't succeed? Overpriced backup.

And so on...

If you don't want to risk having an overpriced backup, then you go with Conkannen. Obviously the Oilers have seen what Jussi has to offer, and in their opinion don't think he has the goods to be a true #1 guy. His lacklustre Worlds' probably didn't help his case either.

Right or wrong, they're going with Conklin.

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07-08-2004, 01:11 PM
  #86
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The following are up for contract renewal or are UFAs this offseason:

Aebischer
Aubin
Auld
Bierk
Biron
Blackburn
Boucher
Brathwaite
Charpentier
Clemmensen
Cloutier
Dafoe
Denis
DiPietro
Eklund
Fernandez
Gerber
Hedberg
Huet
Kidd
Kiprusoff
Lalime
Lamothe
Nabokov
Niittymaki
Noronen
Osgood
Passmore
Potvin
Prusek
Raycroft
Schwab
Shields
Snow
Tellqvist
Thibault
Toskala
Tugnutt
Vokoun
Weekes
Yeats

I bolded the contracts which I'm certain will be more than Conklin... that would put him at 31st highest. The interesting ones to watch will be Gerber (he's playe 54 games, is 30 and is about to be Carolina's starter), Noronen, Fernandez, Boucher & Toskala.


Last edited by MrMackey: 07-08-2004 at 01:24 PM.
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07-08-2004, 01:16 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Thompson
Again, one brings up the question: Why?

Conklin has not proven he's a top 30 goaltender yet, nevermind a top 20. Why does he deserve that money based on, as other posters have said, 40-some games in the NHL?
He's also had a pair of good seasons in the AHL, along with a stellar college career... the guy flat out wins everywhere he plays. He won 17 games as a rookie (finishing 28th among all goaltenders), 19th among starting goaltenders in GAA and 16th among goaltenders in sv% (both stats counting guys who played in 35 or more games).

Not a top 30 goaltender yet? Based on what? Detroit, Tampa Bay and maybe Minnesota have a better backup than what Conklin would be (that's a maybe).

Ty's a better starting goalie than Pittsburgh has, the Rangers have, Phoenix has, Atlanta has... and it's arguable whether teams like Carolina, St. Louis and Vancouver have better starting goaltenders.

I think Ty will do fine as a tandem with Markkanen... Ty's also picked up his game alot this season, and with his play at the World Championships and his selection to the World Cup team, things may be looking even better for him.

All I know is that he has done nothing but rise up at every level he's played at. He did it in College, he did it in the AHL, and he did it his first year in the NHL. $1.5 mil is still under the league average, and still puts him as one of the lowest paid goaltenders in the NHL among "starters". Lowe also has him locked up for at least 2 years, possibly 3, depending on how Ty plays.

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07-08-2004, 11:51 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
The following are up for contract renewal or are UFAs this offseason:

Aebischer
Aubin
Auld
Bierk
Biron
Blackburn
Boucher
Brathwaite
Charpentier
Clemmensen
Cloutier
Dafoe
Denis
DiPietro
Eklund
Fernandez
Gerber
Hedberg
Huet
Kidd
Kiprusoff
Lalime
Lamothe
Nabokov
Niittymaki
Noronen
Osgood
Passmore
Potvin
Prusek
Raycroft
Schwab
Shields
Snow
Tellqvist
Thibault
Toskala
Tugnutt
Vokoun
Weekes
Yeats

I bolded the contracts which I'm certain will be more than Conklin... that would put him at 31st highest. The interesting ones to watch will be Gerber (he's playe 54 games, is 30 and is about to be Carolina's starter), Noronen, Fernandez, Boucher & Toskala.
You've made a lot of good points on this Mr Mackey. I still feel it is an overpay ... but not as terrible as I first thought.

I Like Conklin, and I think he'll do well, but that's not the point. Ty had no arbs rights, was on a low base, the new CBA is pending ........ Lowe has a relatively low payroll, and he held all the cards in this negotiation. As 'speeds' said ... why on earth was Lowe in a rush to sign a contract like this? I still don't understand.

BTW: When I threw up my last post I had somehow missed yours apologies for that. Cechmanek is not a bad example really, well found. He had a bit more clout in negotiations as an overaged draftee who was already established in the Czech league ... but it was a gamble for Clarke in any case, and probably set the bar for this type of player in the eyes of the NHLPA lawyers.

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07-09-2004, 12:02 AM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Ty's a better starting goalie than Pittsburgh has, the Rangers have, Phoenix has, Atlanta has... and it's arguable whether teams like Carolina, St. Louis and Vancouver have better starting goaltenders.
I wouldn't hesitate for a second to take Nurminen and Lehtonen over Ty and Jussi.

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07-09-2004, 12:03 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
As 'speeds' said ... why on earth was Lowe in a rush to sign a contract like this? I still don't understand.
That's a fair question. It kinda smacks of the Brewer and York contracts, in that while you're glad they got signed, you're left wondering "what happened to the negotiation process?"

1.5M for Ty isn't that bad, but it's fair to be left wondering if we could've gotten him for a couple hundred grand less. I still don't think it's cause for riots in the streets though. Let's save that for the Brewer/Smith deals.

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07-09-2004, 12:20 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
As 'speeds' said ... why on earth was Lowe in a rush to sign a contract like this? I still don't understand.
That's a very good question. The only reason I can think of that is close to reasonable is maybe Lowe felt that Conklin had a good shot of being the only option for Team USA in the World Cup and with a lights-out performance he could start demanding money in the $2-3M range.

I know its a reach. I agree that this signing shouldn't have necessarily been his highest priority and by waiting he could've had the chance to solidify his positions with other players. It could've saved him a couple hundred Gs too, but hopefully it won't matter after its all said and done.

Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
BTW: When I threw up my last post I had somehow missed yours apologies for that. Cechmanek is not a bad example really, well found. He had a bit more clout in negotiations as an overaged draftee who was already established in the Czech league ... but it was a gamble for Clarke in any case, and probably set the bar for this type of player in the eyes of the NHLPA lawyers.

No worries. And no disrespect intended in my response... I took it as a bit of a challenge to try to dig up a little more info (the least I could do with all of the great statistical breakdowns you've provided us!).

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07-09-2004, 12:28 AM
  #92
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I think the biggest complaint is that Lowe overpaid Conklin by $200,000. Why because that is what a few fans thought he should make?

I mean if $200,000 supposed overpay is going to get this team in trouble than lets just pack it in.

IMO there is way too much fuss over a signing that ranks Conklin in the lower third of salaries for starting goalies.

It makes for good discussion but at the end of the day it is still an issue that is widely overblown.

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07-09-2004, 12:42 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
I think the biggest complaint is that Lowe overpaid Conklin by $200,000. Why because that is what a few fans thought he should make?

I mean if $200,000 supposed overpay is going to get this team in trouble than lets just pack it in.

IMO there is way too much fuss over a signing that ranks Conklin in the lower third of salaries for starting goalies.

It makes for good discussion but at the end of the day it is still an issue that is widely overblown.
I think it is an overpay of at least $500k on a one year deal. And as a percentage it is a significant overpay. They're high-fiving in the NHLPA offices though ... because every goalie on that long list of mediocre NHL goalies above will be using Ty Conklin as an arbs comp. Or using the threat of said strategy to negotiate a higher contract prior to arbs.

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07-09-2004, 01:04 AM
  #94
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that is a good point.... how can Biron not justly ask for 2.5ish if Ty gets 1.5?

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07-09-2004, 09:02 AM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I think it is an overpay of at least $500k on a one year deal. And as a percentage it is a significant overpay. They're high-fiving in the NHLPA offices though ... because every goalie on that long list of mediocre NHL goalies above will be using Ty Conklin as an arbs comp. Or using the threat of said strategy to negotiate a higher contract prior to arbs.
But it is not a one year deal it is a two year deal with an option. If it was a one year deal I would agree with you (though to say he was only going to get a 100,000 raise from last years salary even on a one year deal is a HUGE stretch), whenever a player goes for a longer term the price goes up.

I was thinking about 1.3 on a one year deal, to be honest, which means he was going to get raise on a new deal anyway especially if he has a good season. So 1.5 on a two year deal is not an overpay IMO.

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07-09-2004, 09:08 AM
  #96
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this thread shows how hard it is to be an nhl gm. If lowe signs Ty to a one year deal and he proves himself, Lowe is looking at 3 mill in arbitration next year. If If Lowe signs Ty to a one year deal and he doesn't pan out, then he is a terrible judge of talent ( kinda like the failed dopita experiment).

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07-09-2004, 09:34 AM
  #97
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Here is another consideration;

Ty, because of his age, is arbitration elligible. If he has a season next year that is no better and no worse (obviously all are hoping that he is still on an upswing), then he would potentially be going into arbitration armed with stats better than 3 other goalies that signed RFA contracts for over 3 mil a year. Based on stats from last season.

These numbers don't include the guys that are up for contracts this year. Which has been discussed already.

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07-09-2004, 10:12 AM
  #98
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I have said it before and I will say it again - bad contract.

-- 1.15 / 1.30 plus an option year at 1.50 is an excellent contract - the kind I would have danced in the streets over
--- (savings of 550k off the top and possible 1.55 overall)

-- 1.25 / 1.50 plus an option year at 2.00 is a fair contract - the kind I would have saluted Lowe for making
--- (savings of 250k off the top and possible 750k overall)

-- 1.50 / 1.50 plus an option year at 2.50 is a poor contract - the kind that makes me lose faith in the GM's ability overall

igor and speeds have the right of it - this is NOT a contract that Lowe needed to roll over on as quickly as he did - there was more than enough factors to allow Lowe to squeeze this one and he didn't.


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07-09-2004, 10:18 AM
  #99
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igor, I believe it was you that once said Lowe must have lawyers behind the scenes working on the contract negotiations?
Do you still think so?

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07-09-2004, 10:47 AM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26
I wouldn't hesitate for a second to take Nurminen and Lehtonen over Ty and Jussi.
Considering that Lehtonen isn't a starting goaltender yet, I didn't include him (otherwise I couldn't add Pittsburgh either because of Fleury)... and Nurminen isn't that good, and it's not like he's put up fantastic numbers on a bad team... he's put up below average numbers on a bad team.

The Oilers would really regret taking Nurminen over Jussi or Ty.

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