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Old
02-24-2011, 11:42 AM
  #1
iKiwi
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Playoff Chance

I remember in the past few years someone posted this website to keep up with what are the chances for the preds make the playoffs.

Though it would be interested if we had it this year too!

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...Predators.html

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Old
02-24-2011, 11:51 AM
  #2
PredDave
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Thanks for the link! I had forgotten about that website...

It's interesting to see that if the Preds continue to play .500 hockey, they have less than a 28% chance of making the playoffs!

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02-24-2011, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by PredDave View Post
Thanks for the link! I had forgotten about that website...

It's interesting to see that if the Preds continue to play .500 hockey, they have less than a 28% chance of making the playoffs!
.500 from here on out is 92 points which I would estimate has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.

95 should get us 8th(12-9-1), to get all the way up to 4th we probably need about 104(17-5-0)

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Old
02-24-2011, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by PredDave View Post
Thanks for the link! I had forgotten about that website...

It's interesting to see that if the Preds continue to play .500 hockey, they have less than a 28% chance of making the playoffs!
But playing just over (.568) gives you a 92% chance. 12-9-1 seems pretty do-able.

.... and 95 points gives you a better chance of 6th and 7th than of 8th.

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Old
02-24-2011, 06:00 PM
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token grinder
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rememebr too, there are fewer games against the east for most teams. the pacific will beat each other up and hopefully edmonton and colorado have some pride about them and give those teams fits int heir division. 22 games is a lot of hockey to play.

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Old
02-24-2011, 08:47 PM
  #6
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I feel like the chance of us making the playoffs is going down as I watch this game. Poile!!

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Old
02-24-2011, 08:57 PM
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PredsV82
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its been a long time since I thought about the epic collapse that was the finish of the 02-03 seaso, but watching our scoreless string srtetch out towards the event horizon I can help but remember.. :shudder

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Old
02-24-2011, 10:58 PM
  #8
triggrman
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here's what I think. I think we're a good team when we can outwork talented teams for a win, but when talented teams work hard we can't win.

That's why we struggle during the playoff push times and why we've never won a playoff series.

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Old
02-24-2011, 11:48 PM
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roseyc
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
here's what I think. I think we're a good team when we can outwork talented teams for a win, but when talented teams work hard we can't win.

That's why we struggle during the playoff push times and why we've never won a playoff series.
great post...it's the truth

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Old
03-03-2011, 07:48 AM
  #10
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% is sure going down...

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Old
03-03-2011, 08:02 AM
  #11
PredDave
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Nashville Predators Playoff Chances
Did not play, playoff odds up 1.7 to 53.3%
73 points 32-23-9


Basically, flip a quarter --- we have slightly better than a 50-50 chance of getting in right now.

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03-04-2011, 11:54 AM
  #12
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The Predators have a 100% chance of making the playoffs if they go 12-5 for the final 17 games of the season... (giving us 99 points)

It looks like 94 or 95 points is the minimum we need to be safe.

Currently, we have a 66% chance of seeing the post season.

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Old
03-09-2011, 01:19 PM
  #13
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Wow its amazing to think that its still a coin flip after that road trip! Just think if we can establish some sort of home ice advantage we are in!

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Old
03-09-2011, 03:57 PM
  #14
PredDave
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We're back down to 50.5% chance of making the playoffs...

Come on hockey gods! We need some luck on our side!

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Old
03-09-2011, 04:23 PM
  #15
lstcyr
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Originally Posted by PredDave View Post
We're back down to 50.5% chance of making the playoffs...Come on hockey gods! We need some luck on our side!
Just remember that those odds are based upon running a bunch of simulations based upon the season. If the Preds win out, they're in. If they lose more than they win, their odds are 0%. The Preds control their destiny as I see it.

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Old
03-09-2011, 09:36 PM
  #16
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I'm glad that it seems most people on here still have hope.

I personally don't think we have a chance. Like someone said before when talented teams work hard we can't win. I don't see our 1 and 1/2 #2 lines doing better than they are now, or the coaching. Can't understand our coaching sometimes, especially lately.

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Old
03-09-2011, 10:09 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jcupp View Post
I'm glad that it seems most people on here still have hope.

I personally don't think we have a chance. Like someone said before when talented teams work hard we can't win. I don't see our 1 and 1/2 #2 lines doing better than they are now, or the coaching. Can't understand our coaching sometimes, especially lately.
The coaching is directly correlated to the available personnel. Our Opening Night group of centers was one of the strongest in franchise history (IMO) and scored 7 goals in the two games they were together. With the Fisher acquisition I felt that we were back to that strength down the middle and scored 5 goals in the one game prior to Goc getting injured.

When we've been healthy, we've played a more aggressive system and seen the results (12 goals/3 games = 4 GPG). Problem is...we've only had that luxury for 3 games out of ~70. Right now we are back to the team that scored 1.5 GPG over a stretch of 15 games in the middle of the season when Legwand and Goc were out to go along with Lombardi's absence. Legwand and especially Fisher are at their best when they are not asked to play as the top scoring line center. Unfortunately, with Lombardi, O'Reilly, and Goc all out...they've been asked to do so and our offense has struggled.

We need to have three lines going to make things work. Smithson's line works. They might not create much offense, but they wear out the opponent and don't let them score frequently. Unfortunately though, without a second line going...if the Legwand line gets hot, they get targeted. If the Fisher line goes, then they get targeted. Until we can get at least two lines going offensively at a time...we're going to need to play more conservatively and look to capitalize on turnovers.

That's the reality of the situation...

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Old
03-09-2011, 11:41 PM
  #18
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If we can win five of the six should win games against Atlanta, Colorado, Edmonton, St Louis and Columbus we then need to average a point a game in the remaining nine games to be in contention for the 7/8 seeds. 10-5-0 probably gets us in .... 9-6-0 not so much. 6-0-9 might do it. I'm expecting every loss to be followed by defeatist, the end is hear rants and every win to be accompanied with jubilation. Neither reaction will be warranted by a single game's results.

Another night of no support from the teams we need to win in regulation.

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Old
03-10-2011, 08:31 AM
  #19
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the way i see it, our final 15 break down into three cats: must win, toss ups, house money games must win games give us 18 more points, puts us at 94. so six other games to find 3-4 more points. doable yea.

must win:
tonight vs minn
12th vs colorado
15th vs LA
19th/apr 2nd vs det
22nd vs edm
24th vs ana
31st vs col
apr 5th vs atl
apr 8th vs columbus


toss up:
20th vs buff
26th vs dal
apr 9th @ stl

house money:
17th vs boston
19th/apr 2nd vs det
29th vs van

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Old
03-10-2011, 09:06 AM
  #20
jcupp
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I know mathmatically we are in it. I know we have major injuries at the center position. I know I will go to every remaining home game win or lose and cheer for the team.

What i don't understand is why Ward is playing on the power play (and not just the closing seconds for match up) and not someone with offense....anyone. Yes ward scored a goal on the PP. How long between games was that? How does the coach reward some one for not scoring goals and call out some one that I thought was playing well?

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Old
03-10-2011, 11:34 AM
  #21
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Originally Posted by jcupp View Post
I know mathmatically we are in it. I know we have major injuries at the center position. I know I will go to every remaining home game win or lose and cheer for the team.

What i don't understand is why Ward is playing on the power play (and not just the closing seconds for match up) and not someone with offense....anyone. Yes ward scored a goal on the PP. How long between games was that? How does the coach reward some one for not scoring goals and call out some one that I thought was playing well?
Ward is a big body and big body in front of net is what we need. Hornqvist can't be out there for the whole pp. You said how long has it been for Ward to score on the pp well how many times has he been on the pp. How Ward scored on the pp is what the whole team needs to do is take the puck and go to net instead of these perimeter shots that either get blocked or go into the chest of the goalie. We need to pay the price and go to the net.

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Old
03-10-2011, 12:13 PM
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I didn't just mean on the pp. I meant period. He does create turnovers and play the boards ok. He has no control of the puck. Very few times he has control of the puck it seems like he makes a good play. He is obviously not that bad since he is a nhl player but compared to others very few offensive skills imo.

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Old
03-10-2011, 01:44 PM
  #23
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I didn't just mean on the pp. I meant period. He does create turnovers and play the boards ok. He has no control of the puck. Very few times he has control of the puck it seems like he makes a good play. He is obviously not that bad since he is a nhl player but compared to others very few offensive skills imo.
Just like Legwand he's played on the checking line all season they have found capable replacements for him on that line and he's rusty from playing on a line that doesn't generate much offensive chances. But his play has been more like it was a couple of seasons before given the chance and he's shown that he has a game. What we've lacked in the past seasons is that big body that can't be pushed around and Ward and Hornqvist fills that roles and we need them.

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Old
03-12-2011, 05:45 PM
  #24
jcupp
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I'm not going to admit I was wrong about Ward yet. He's had a couple of good games. Two games does not a smart move make....yet.

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Old
03-20-2011, 09:21 PM
  #25
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slowly but surely getting up!

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