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The Official Scott Gomez Thread part tres - Siesta Edition

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Old
07-21-2011, 05:50 PM
  #926
MathMan
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Unlike Plekanec, it wasn't as night and day.
Plekanec was a guy coming off his single 70-point season in a year where everything clicked for his team.

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Gomez has been on a downward slope for some time now. Not unlike former key players like Bertuzzi and McCabe.
He's collected 40 even-strength points like clockwork for 3 years before last. There was no sign of real decline to any but the most superficial examination of the player (which, granted, is what usually is done).

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07-21-2011, 05:54 PM
  #927
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
It doesn't your top scorers aren't legit 1st liners that you can't win. With a balanced lineup that has a strong defensive presence and solid goaltending, you can very well beat run n' gun squads (or any team that doesn't have good balance). But none of the Bruins was being paid 7.35$ to play like a scrub.



You're not looking at the big picture. I said it took him half a season to muster up decent top 6 production. Is that a bonafide top 6 forward? Not really.

And yes, Zherdev is a borderline top 6 forward. I'm going to assume you're joking about the other ones, nobody is stupid enough to think Jagr (96 and 123 point seasons prior), Gionta (consistent 20+ goal scorer) and Cammalleri (2 PPG seasons, 39 goal season prior) aren't legit top 6 forwards.
So what you are saying is Gomez really is a top six forward and his 38 point season is probably an anomaly. Cammalleris' drop off can be compared to Gomez in the same light. For a guy who is supposed to be an great goal scorer we only 19 from him, he made 6 million last season too. All the same arguments you are using against Gomez can be said of 3 0r 4 other guys on this same team.

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07-21-2011, 05:56 PM
  #928
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Slumps and streaks is all good.

Going on a 30-35 point pace for the first 3 months of the season is a big problem for the team. That's under a point every 2 game. You're not getting much secondary scoring out of your second line and second PP unit for that period.

I wouldn't care too much if he actually played good D. But he doesn't even do that.

Cammy and D, oil and water.

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07-21-2011, 05:58 PM
  #929
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Plekanec was a guy coming off his single 70-point season in a year where everything clicked for his team.



He's collected 40 even-strength points like clockwork for 3 years before last. There was no sign of real decline to any but the most superficial examination of the player (which, granted, is what usually is done).
His TOI has also increased since his 70 point season. So less production per 60. But hey, I guess that's superficial too.

He had the same TOI this season as he had in 07-08. Well over 20 mins in 08-09 and 09-10.

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07-21-2011, 06:01 PM
  #930
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So what you are saying is Gomez really is a top six forward and his 38 point season is probably an anomaly. Cammalleris' drop off can be compared to Gomez in the same light. For a guy who is supposed to be an great goal scorer we only 19 from him, he made 6 million last season too. All the same arguments you are using against Gomez can be said of 3 0r 4 other guys on this same team.
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Cammy and D, oil and water.
Cammy also played 60ish games the last 2 seasons. His PPG is actually pretty similar for both seasons.

And even though he hasn't lived up to his Calgary self (in the regular season at least), he's still making a solid 4th liner less than Gomez. His ES play has also been overall better.

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Old
07-21-2011, 06:04 PM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
His TOI has also increased since his 70 point season. So less production per 60. But hey, I guess that's superficial too.

He had the same TOI this season as he had in 07-08. Well over 20 mins in 08-09 and 09-10.


What? his point production in those three seasons' is not an issue, he played to his average points, last season he dropped of but his ice time dropped by over a minute per game.

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07-21-2011, 06:12 PM
  #932
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Cammy also played 60ish games the last 2 seasons. His PPG is actually pretty similar for both seasons.

And even though he hasn't lived up to his Calgary self (in the regular season at least), he's still making a solid 4th liner less than Gomez. His ES play has also been overall better.

I am sure you watched as many games as I did, Cammy last season and Gomez last season were very similar in that they both underachieved. Cammys' 6 mill is for approx. 30 goals as season. We got it just fine in 9-10 but last season we got 19 in 60 ?

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07-21-2011, 06:23 PM
  #933
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
His TOI has also increased since his 70 point season. So less production per 60. But hey, I guess that's superficial too.
Yes, it is... his even-strength icetime has remained relatively constant. His points per 60 at evens have actually gone UP year over year from 2007-2008 to 2009-2010, though not much (from 1.90-1.92-1.97).

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Old
07-21-2011, 06:23 PM
  #934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Slumps and streaks is all good.

Going on a 30-35 point pace for the first 3 months of the season is a big problem for the team. That's under a point every 2 game. You're not getting much secondary scoring out of your second line and second PP unit for that period.

I wouldn't care too much if he actually played good D. But he doesn't even do that.

well, and I'm not talking about last season since everyone knows he was bad but his 50+ seasons prior to that (or any other +/- 55 pts players)

look at it this way, if 30 games in you're on pace for 35 pts it means you're 0.25 PPG off your normal production rate... approximately.

while it may seems huge, we're not talking about 100 pts players here but 50/60... so, if 25, 30 or 35 games in youre on the 35 pts pace it means what... that you're 5 or 6 pts below your normal pace ??

I mean, 60 pts over 82 games is the equivalent of 30 over 41 for a player who'd be getting point on a steady pace... big effin deal if the guy is off by a few points, no one is that steady anyway and ALL of them have ups and downs over the course of a season...



Now, is it detrimental to the team if a 60 pts player is in a slump ? sure... but if the team cant survive that... it's then more of a team problem than the players fault...

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Old
07-21-2011, 06:26 PM
  #935
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Cammy's actually a bit more worrisome than Gomez, to me. He's been shooting less, which is not a good sign for a goal-scorer. I worry that playing Plekanec's minutes (very very tough) may not suit him.

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Old
07-21-2011, 06:29 PM
  #936
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Cammy's actually more worrisome than Gomez, to me. He's been shooting less, which is not a good sign for a goal-scorer. I worry that playing Plekanec's minutes (very very tough) may not suit him.
probably, TP has the toughest defensive assignments both in reg season and PO...

and since Camm isnt really good defensively, even though he tries, it may hurt him as he's using a lot of his energy defending...

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07-21-2011, 06:35 PM
  #937
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Theres no doubt that Cammalleri needs to produce more but the HUGE difference is that Cammalleri has been amazing in his two playoff years with us where as Gomez has not. Im talking about the last 2 years, not Gomezs stint with the Devils or Rangers. SO please dont bring up career playoff numbers.

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07-21-2011, 08:02 PM
  #938
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Cammy's actually a bit more worrisome than Gomez, to me. He's been shooting less, which is not a good sign for a goal-scorer. I worry that playing Plekanec's minutes (very very tough) may not suit him.
I chalk it up to injuries. He gets a pass from me, but he needs to have a better season this year too.

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Old
07-21-2011, 08:15 PM
  #939
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Theres no doubt that Cammalleri needs to produce more but the HUGE difference is that Cammalleri has been amazing in his two playoff years with us where as Gomez has not. Im talking about the last 2 years, not Gomezs stint with the Devils or Rangers. SO please dont bring up career playoff numbers.

Gomez put up 4 points in 7 games this season in what we can all agree was a terrible year for him. Year before he put a respectable 14 points in 19 games, his second best playoff performance of his career. So this is just his playoffs with us.

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07-21-2011, 09:43 PM
  #940
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Cammy's actually a bit more worrisome than Gomez, to me. He's been shooting less, which is not a good sign for a goal-scorer. I worry that playing Plekanec's minutes (very very tough) may not suit him.
An idea I've heard being kicked around is that it might be better to use Plekanec with Kostitsyn and Cole as the tough minute line and reunit Cammaleri-Gomez-Gionta as an an offense unit focused unit. Or if Gomez-Cole works, put the three best tough minutes players together in Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Gionta and have Cammaleri-Gomez-Cole or Pacioretty-Gomez-Cole.

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07-21-2011, 11:15 PM
  #941
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It tends to decline, not suddenly fall off a cliff.
Decline from where? 39 point or 60 points? Just wondering?

Quote:
And you would expect something else to decline than "shooting percentage by teammates while he is on the ice".
Oh, I see it is somehow the fault of his linemates.... again.

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Old
07-22-2011, 12:20 AM
  #942
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What are we to think when the wings do better than their center? Is it too obvious to say get them a better center?

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07-22-2011, 02:19 AM
  #943
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Yes if only his linemates could drag him to 60pts the sycophants in here could finally claim gainey didn't **** up and tell everyone how dumb they were for not wanting gomez. You know that is exactly what will happen too. Really doesn't matter what a total waste of air he is, if he hits 60pts all is right in the world.

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07-22-2011, 06:55 AM
  #944
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Originally Posted by habfan1968 View Post
So what you are saying is Gomez really is a top six forward and his 38 point season is probably an anomaly. Cammalleris' drop off can be compared to Gomez in the same light. For a guy who is supposed to be an great goal scorer we only 19 from him, he made 6 million last season too. All the same arguments you are using against Gomez can be said of 3 0r 4 other guys on this same team.
1) Cammalleri got 19 goals because of injury.
2) Cammalleri rocked in the playoffs. Boith off seasons. Less than stellar regular season play is as such forgiven.

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07-22-2011, 08:20 AM
  #945
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Yes if only his linemates could drag him to 60pts the sycophants in here could finally claim gainey didn't **** up and tell everyone how dumb they were for not wanting gomez. You know that is exactly what will happen too. Really doesn't matter what a total waste of air he is, if he hits 60pts all is right in the world.

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Old
07-22-2011, 09:06 AM
  #946
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
An idea I've heard being kicked around is that it might be better to use Plekanec with Kostitsyn and Cole as the tough minute line and reunit Cammaleri-Gomez-Gionta as an an offense unit focused unit.
I suggested that on Olivier's blog a few days ago, so needless to say I agree. As he likes to point out, this also reunites MaxPac and DD, who were great in the AHL; add Eller as their third and you have a pretty impressive (if young) third line.

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07-22-2011, 09:07 AM
  #947
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Decline from where? 39 point or 60 points? Just wondering?
From 40 even-strength points (which is a very respectable number, incidentally).

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Oh, I see it is somehow the fault of his linemates.... again.
No, actually, that's mostly bad luck. And sometimes it goes the other way and the same guy racks up 84 total points. Just like how the goalie being especially "good" or "bad" behind you is largely luck -- it's the effect of small samples.

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07-22-2011, 09:26 AM
  #948
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Small samples?

Some math for math man:

If you include playoffs, I think Gomez had 42 points in 91 games. That's not a small sample. The margin of error is only 13 points, 19 times out of 20.

So you can say with 95% confidence that he didn't play like a 55 point over 91 games player who got unlucky.

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07-22-2011, 09:36 AM
  #949
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From 40 even-strength points (which is a very respectable number, incidentally).



No, actually, that's mostly bad luck. And sometimes it goes the other way and the same guy racks up 84 total points. Just like how the goalie being especially "good" or "bad" behind you is largely luck -- it's the effect of small samples.
You should remove the 2nd *s from sometimes and type sometime, because it's only ever happened once, in a year that was a statistical anomaly for many.

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07-22-2011, 09:43 AM
  #950
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If you include playoffs, I think Gomez had 42 points in 91 games. That's not a small sample.
Yes, yes it is, given the amount of variability in hockey. I don't think people quite grasp how relatively small a sample a single season represents.

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The margin of error is only 13 points, 19 times out of 20.
What are you basing your confidence interval on?

In any case, my point is that this is one of those one-in-twenty occurences. 95% seems like a lot, but it means that you will, on average, have a bit more than one player having such a season any given NHL club.

Gomez fell off the left side on the bell curve on on-ice shooting percentage. These things happen. Rarely, but they do.

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