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Terry Murray's "Shot Mentality" Shot Down By Simple & Stubborn Statistics

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04-10-2011, 04:25 PM
  #26
Zad
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[QUOTE=Zad;32267939]Thank you for digging that up. I appreciate what you do around here more than you think. There is a difference between a shot mentality that emphasizes quality shots and one that just relies on shoot regardless of position and circumstance. The latter is Murray. The former is sanity. There is in any system some overlap. Of course, when you are in the offensive zone and there is no play there, you take the shot. Can't hurt. But when I see our players literally looking away from open passing lanes for one timers and shooting lanes from high percentage areas that require some stick handling or skating to get open (Stoll did it twice last night, Handzus once, that I saw) to get the shot to the point and fire away, I see system failure.

Last night, Anaheim was coming out of its box on the penalty kill to pressure our point men. Did we adjust? No. Just kept firing away at their shins.

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04-10-2011, 04:26 PM
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[QUOTE=Zad;32267975]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zad View Post
Thank you for digging that up. I appreciate what you do around here more than you think. There is a difference between a shot mentality that emphasizes quality shots and one that just relies on shoot regardless of position and circumstance. The latter is Murray. The former is sanity. There is in any system some overlap. Of course, when you are in the offensive zone and there is no play there, you take the shot. Can't hurt. But when I see our players literally looking away from open passing lanes for one timers and shooting lanes from high percentage areas that require some stick handling or skating to get open (Stoll did it twice last night, Handzus once, that I saw) to get the shot to the point and fire away, I see system failure.

Last night, Anaheim was coming out of its box on the penalty kill to pressure our point men. Did we adjust? No. Looked away the lanes and just kept flicking to the point and firing away at their sticks and shins.

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04-10-2011, 04:27 PM
  #28
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Ok, I have no idea why the hell my posts are multiplying. Telos, help a brother out.

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04-10-2011, 04:53 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... The only problem with the premise of this article is that the NHL hasn't only existed for this season. If you go back a little while, just to the beginning of the "shootout era", and look at the numbers there - you see the merit of what Terry Murray is doing.

This season, the total winning percentage of teams being outshot is .528. That's not dominant, but it IS a winning record.

Last season, teams being outshot had a winning percentage of .503. It was pretty much a flip of a coin; there was no apparent difference whatsoever.

In 08-09, though - teams being outshot had a winning percentage of just .467.

In 07-08, teams being outshot had a winning percentage of .468.

In 06-07, teams being outshot had a winning percentage of .460. Seeing a trend here?

In 05-06, teams being outshot had a winning percentage of .453.

And that's just going back over the last six seasons, including this one.

It's safe to say that this season appears to be an anomaly, and that Terry Murray's shot mentality is usually the right way to approach the majority of games.

I do see a pattern or trend, and just as likely, even more so I believe, than this season being an anomoly, is the concept that post lockout rules are having an effect and this is that puck movement and looking for the quality shot/scoring chance is more important than just firing pucks. I would wager that scoring chances (as subjective as that is with much variance from statistician to statistician) is far more
correlative to, and indicative of, the top teams than is SOG.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zad View Post
Thank you for digging that up. I appreciate what you do around here more than you think. There is a difference between a shot mentality that emphasizes quality shots and one that just relies on shoot regardless of position and circumstance. The latter is Murray. The former is sanity. There is in any system some overlap. Of course, when you are in the offensive zone and there is no play there, you take the shot. Can't hurt. But when I see our players literally looking away from open passing lanes for one timers and shooting lanes from high percentage areas that require some stick handling or skating to get open (Stoll did it twice last night, Handzus once, that I saw) to get the shot to the point and fire away, I see system failure.

Last night, Anaheim was coming out of its box on the penalty kill to pressure our point men. Did we adjust? No. Just kept firing away at their shins.
I saw that, and thought at the time: More shots --just keep shooting no matter what.

As for JT appreciation: An informal poll shows the following: 6% of posters have great appreciation for his contributions. 57% of posters have a good amount of appreciation for his posts. 27% have fair or moderate appreciation. 15% have no appreciation and another 7% have him on ignore.


(It should be apparent that there is a reason I dont do statistics)

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04-10-2011, 05:50 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zad View Post
Thank you for digging that up. I appreciate what you do around here more than you think. There is a difference between a shot mentality that emphasizes quality shots and one that just relies on shoot regardless of position and circumstance. The latter is Murray. The former is sanity. There is in any system some overlap. Of course, when you are in the offensive zone and there is no play there, you take the shot. Can't hurt. But when I see our players literally looking away from open passing lanes for one timers and shooting lanes from high percentage areas that require some stick handling or skating to get open (Stoll did it twice last night, Handzus once, that I saw) to get the shot to the point and fire away, I see a system that is broken...or should I saw, never worked.
... Well, there's a fine line - in some games, it appears that the Kings don't shoot enough; in others, they shoot too often. I have the opinion that in today's game, players block or deflect shots better than ever. Players are getting bigger, and the sticks are lighter and quicker. I do agree with Tik in that players are generally more interested in making the flashy play (picking a corner and often missing) than in the fundamental play (waiting for a good lane to shoot, and a player to be in front, and firing a good low shot that's tippable/reboundable). Unfortunately, we can't really measure things accurately as quality shots and chances are pretty subjective and aren't counted by the NHL or anyone affiliated with or following the Kings. Sometimes, we see scoring chance numbers on a telecast, but nothing is really standardized or carried over and kept up from game to game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
As for JT appreciation: An informal poll shows the following: 6% of posters have great appreciation for his contributions. 57% of posters have a good amount of appreciation for his posts. 27% have fair or moderate appreciation. 15% have no appreciation and another 7% have him on ignore.
... Only 7%??? And sometimes I wish the mods were part of that 7%.

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04-10-2011, 06:20 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Zad View Post
Click on the link within the article for the official NHL stats. It's your friend.

I focus on the total shots because Murray focuses on the total. His theory is that the more shots you get on net, the better chance you have to score goals and win. Shoot it, don't wait to make the "cute" play, shoot the puck. He said it again last night. Even with 44 shots on net, he wants more.

It's a simple quality v. quantity issue.
Yup. In Murray's world, 3 floaters from the boards just inside the blueline are better than one shot between the hash marks. He's done some really good things with the defensive side of things, but the guy needs to go. Unfortunately, I have a better chance of growing a 3rd nipple this summer that we do of watching Murray get the axe.

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