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Round 1 Kings Forum Discussion: San Jose Sharks (2) vs. Los Angeles Kings (7)

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Old
04-11-2011, 10:27 PM
  #201
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I'm betting the kings get swept, I hate to be that fan but I just don't see it .

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04-11-2011, 10:43 PM
  #202
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To get this thread back on track, here are the top ten things the Kings can do to steal this series.

http://lakingsnews.com/2011/04/11/to...sharks-series/

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04-11-2011, 11:12 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by two out of three View Post
The thing that irks me the most is that people act like Quick is head and shoulders above Bernier, and while I probably sound like most of the time I'm saying that Bernier is head and shoulders above Quick, that isn't the case. I do think that Bernier is the better goalie, and the goalie of the future though.

Also the whole "back-up goalie" thing. Bernier isn't a back up goalie, right now on this team he is, but Bernier can, is, and will be a #1 goalie in this league. JB has definitely played like a #1 since the break, and if Quick looks like he isn't on his game (and I hope he doesn't lookt hat way) then JB should definitely see some games in the post-season.
Hey, no one said perennial backup. He is a backup right now. That's all. He won't be forever, 1 more year tops, and that's only a maybe. He will either be a back-up next year or a 1b. Year after that he will be a #1 here or somewhere else.

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04-11-2011, 11:20 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Hey, no one said perennial backup. He is a backup right now. That's all. He won't be forever, 1 more year tops, and that's only a maybe. He will either be a back-up next year or a 1b. Year after that he will be a #1 here or somewhere else.
In the early/pre season prediction thread (can't remember which) I said that I thought that JB would have taken over as #1 by Nov or Dec (can't remember) and while that clearly didn't happen I stand by his potential to simply step up one day, any day and take over the job.

He has the skills and I think it is just a matter of time and initiative until he becomes our starter.

I agree with what your saying JDM.

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04-11-2011, 11:37 PM
  #205
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When/with whom did it work before? (honest question).
... Starting with the 4-1 win at Washington on February 12, Bernier started 3 games in a 9 game stretch. Then, Bernier and Quick alternated for the next 7 games. The Kings' record for these 16 games: 11-5, with one shootout win and one shootout loss. Bernier's last start in this alternating arrangement was a 4-2 win over Nashville, where the Kings were outshot 32-18. The alternating ended after the horrific 4-0 loss to St. Louis, where three of Quick's goals allowed were soft, including the goal from the red line.

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He has been doing it, and will continue doing it for the playoffs. Still important. Important to show he has the stones to play his role without not playing getting to his head.
... LOL. Spare me the talk about "stones", here. He'll do what he has to do. I don't believe that Bernier has less heart desire grit nads etc etc etc than Quick does, simply because Quick had the #1 spot fall into his lap and was in the right place at the right time and Bernier wasn't. I'm aware that not all things are fair; that's part of life. But this talk about whether or not Bernier has the mental toughness of Quick is just crap. Bernier improved his game markedly as the season went along, and Quick saw his game decline. Those are the facts.

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As for Quick, no its not personal, but with goalies, its kind of always personal. Its such a touchy mental role, that at this point, with the way the season has gone and what has been told to the team, it would be a slight at Quick at this point to say going in that he isn't the clear cut #1. He has been and he hasn't crapped out or done anything to show he isn't capable of continuing to be the #1. To take that away from him now, regardless of how well Bernier has performed in his few starts lately, would be playing a head game with Quick, whether that's the intention or not, that's likely how it would be taken. You are taking a BIG risk in Quick's confidence by telling him that he is splitting the playoffs with a goalie who has been his backup this whole time. Now, while facing and overcoming adversity is part of the job, we can not deny how mental the position is and always has been. No reason for unnecessary head games.
... I'm sorry, but I don't believe that Jonathan Quick is some sort of delicate snowflake, here. Nor do I believe he's stupid; he knows damn well what Bernier's been doing, and the improvement in his game. I don't believe it would be a big shock to Quick, nor do I see where it's playing "head games" to sit both guys down and tell them that they both deserve playoff starts and that they will be alternating games, based on the fact that the team enjoyed their last hot streak with that arrangement. If that's too much for Quick, then maybe he doesn't have what it takes to be a #1?

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Had they been rotating throughout the season, or Quick's play been poor lately, that would be a different story.
... I'm not saying Quick's play has been poor, but has it been consistent? No. Will the Kings have a chance in this series with inconsistent goaltending? No. Will the possibility of some competition between these two young goalies hurt the team in any way? No. It's as simple as that, imo.

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04-11-2011, 11:50 PM
  #206
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JT,

It would definitely be a headgame for Quick if Murray where to come out and announce a rotation, sorry, Quick isn't stupid and he isn't delicate, but it's still a head game and disaster for ANY coach to do that to a goaltender.

While we disagree about the goaltenders, if Quick falters I would expect Murray to put Bernier in as I would expect any coach to do that and both Quick and Bernier know this.

Bernier got over his entitlement phase in Manchester, he has earned his spot on the LA team, Quick has as well, what would you be telling either goalie if you just yank their spot away from them, what would you be telling the players on the team? My thoughts is you would be telling them that past performance doesn't mean jack, that they could play as well as they possibly could and their spot still isn't guaranteed, that's just a bad message to send. Think about this, Quick has back to back 30 win seasons, back to back excellent numbers, stolen games etc, and now you take all that away because he has had a bad game or 2, before he even gets a chance in the playoffs, you are taking games away from him??? Bernier sees that, he's not stupid either, what do you think he is thinking about then?

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04-12-2011, 12:01 AM
  #207
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Think about this, Quick has back to back 30 win seasons, back to back excellent numbers, stolen games etc, and now you take all that away because he has had a bad game or 2, before he even gets a chance in the playoffs, you are taking games away from him??? Bernier sees that, he's not stupid either, what do you think he is thinking about then?
... Winning 30 games in the shootout era isn't nearly as impressive as winning 30 before it, and rating goalies on the basis of wins is the worst way to do it anyway. Mathieu Garon, Alex Auld, and Andrew Raycroft won 30 games in a season in the shootout era; do those sound like elite goalies to you?

Quick's numbers were below average last season, and they've been average this season - they haven't been excellent at all.

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04-12-2011, 12:10 AM
  #208
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... Winning 30 games in the shootout era isn't nearly as impressive as winning 30 before it, and rating goalies on the basis of wins is the worst way to do it anyway. Mathieu Garon, Alex Auld, and Andrew Raycroft won 30 games in a season in the shootout era; do those sound like elite goalies to you?

Quick's numbers were below average last season, and they've been average this season - they haven't been excellent at all.
Below average last season?

39 wins, 2.54 GAA, .907 SV%, 4th most games played,

This season

35 wins, 2.24 GAA, .918 SV%, 11th most games played,

So less work, better stats, that's a given, but to say those numbers are just average is disingenuous at best, at least be intellectually honest when discussing this...

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04-12-2011, 12:19 AM
  #209
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Anyone going to game 2 in San Jose? PM me!!!!! Let's get a beer!

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04-12-2011, 12:20 AM
  #210
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Below average last season?

39 wins, 2.54 GAA, .907 SV%, 4th most games played
... You're rating Quick on the absolute worst numbers to rate a goalie - wins, games played, and GAA. Games played is dependent upon coach's decision(s). Wins is a team stat. GAA is completely team-dependent. If you're going to use numbers to gauge Quick's performance, use the right ones.

Quick's .907 save percentage was a major negative. The league average save percentage was .913.

Quote:
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35 wins, 2.24 GAA, .918 SV%, 11th most games played
... This season, Quick's been average in actual hockey play, and excellent in the shootouts. Quick's save percentage is better than average this season, largely due to the fact that he's faced lower quality shots than most NHL goaltenders have. His Shot-Quality Neutral save percentage is .911. Of the 29 goalies who have faced 1000 shots this season, Quick ranks 19th of the 29.

Bernier's Shot-Quality Neutral save percentage this season is .910, by the way.

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at least be intellectually honest when discussing this...
... LMAO. I'll keep that in mind.

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04-12-2011, 12:25 AM
  #211
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... You're rating Quick on the absolute worst numbers to rate a goalie - wins, games played, and GAA. Games played is dependent upon coach's decision(s). Wins is a team stat. GAA is completely team-dependent. If you're going to use numbers to gauge Quick's performance, use the right ones.

Quick's .907 save percentage was a major negative. The league average save percentage was .913.



... This season, Quick's been average in actual hockey play, and excellent in the shootouts. Quick's save percentage is better than average this season, largely due to the fact that he's faced lower quality shots than most NHL goaltenders have. His Shot-Quality Neutral save percentage is .911. Of the 29 goalies who have faced 1000 shots this season, Quick ranks 19th of the 29.



... LMAO. I'll keep that in mind.
Shot Quality Neutral? Please define that, sounds a bit, subjective if you will...

Regardless, you can twist the stats one way, I can twist them right back, if you ask 30 teams in the league right now, the ones without Miller, Luongo, Lundquvist, Thomas, Price, would take him in a heartbeat...

He is easily one of the top 10 goaltenders in the league...but hey, let's just hand the reigns over to a guy who has less than 35 career games in the NHL and pray he does alright....

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04-12-2011, 12:32 AM
  #212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjmay View Post
Shot Quality Neutral? Please define that, sounds a bit, subjective if you will...

Regardless, you can twist the stats one way, I can twist them right back, if you ask 30 teams in the league right now, the ones without Miller, Luongo, Lundquvist, Thomas, Price, would take him in a heartbeat...

He is easily one of the top 10 goaltenders in the league...but hey, let's just hand the reigns over to a guy who has less than 35 career games in the NHL and pray he does alright....
This argument is one of my biggest pet peeves. How does somebody gain experience without getting a chance to gain experience? Plus Berniers resume speaks far louder volumes than Quicks ever has, the only thing he doesn't have on his resume is a full season in the NHL, and that's not his fault.

Quick is not a top 10 goaltender in the league, he's in the middle of the road.

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04-12-2011, 12:34 AM
  #213
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Originally Posted by two out of three View Post
This argument is one of my biggest pet peeves. How does somebody gain experience without getting a chance to gain experience? Plus Berniers resume speaks far louder volumes than Quicks ever has, the only thing he doesn't have on his resume is a full season in the NHL, and that's not his fault.

Quick is not a top 10 goaltender in the league, he's in the middle of the road.
Quick is easily a top 10 goaltender in the league, sorry.

As far as experience, I agree, but what you two are advocating is that you throwaway the guy who has had proven success in the NHL, right before the playoffs ffs, for a guy who has an impressive, what, junior and minor league resume??

Probably not the smartest idea of the year...

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04-12-2011, 12:37 AM
  #214
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Melrose is such a hater.
As I looked down the list I was hoping we'd get at least one vote. I know Barry's far removed from the organization, but doesn't anyone have even the slightest faith in us? I feel like we're the most underdog team in the playoffs right now. Maybe that's a good thing.

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04-12-2011, 12:39 AM
  #215
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Shot Quality Neutral? Please define that, sounds a bit, subjective if you will...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dobber Hockey
In order to prove this, he introduces the reader to the concepts of Shot Quality Against (SQA) and "Shot Quality Neutral Save Percentage" (SQNSV).

Slightly scary terms, I know, but hang in there.

SQA begins with calculating the likelihood of scoring on different types of shots (Norman doesn’t overwhelm us with the details here, but points out that most of us can appreciate that a slapshot from 10 feet out has a higher likelihood of producing a goal than a weak backhand from 30 feet out). Once that is catalogued (no small amount of effort there), a league average can be compiled and then combining that with the number of shots a team faced allows you to predict a number of goals scored against for that team. If that team gives up fewer goals than expected, it is assumed that they gave up fewer quality scoring chances, and vice-versa.

SQA can be calculated for a team, or an individual goalie (by only using games in which a particular goalie played). Any guesses how the Devils made out? It turns out that in recent history their SQA is very low, meaning that they give up far fewer quality shots than the rest of the league.

SQNSV is calculated by applying SQA to a team or individual goalie’s save percentage, therefore producing a version of save percentage that factors in the difficulty of shot faced.

By using SQA and SQNSV it allows for analysts to peel back one more layer of the team element when determining the individual abilities of a goalie.
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Originally Posted by sjmay View Post
Regardless, you can twist the stats one way, I can twist them right back, if you ask 30 teams in the league right now, the ones without Miller, Luongo, Lundquvist, Thomas, Price, would take him in a heartbeat...
... Number one, there is no "twisting" of stats. Number two, you're not even twisting stats with your assertion; you're projecting your own bias of Quick on to other teams in the league. Are you willing to say Quick is superior to Hiller? or Rinne? or Ward? or Vokoun? or Bryzgalov? or Fleury? Or Niemi? Quick isn't superior to any of them, so by elimination, he's absolutely NOT "easily top 10" in the league. He's in the pack, anywhere from about 13-17 in the NHL.

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04-12-2011, 12:43 AM
  #216
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Who cares if ESPN isn't picking us.

More than half their experts picked us to upset the Canucks last season and that didn't end up so great. They see the Kings without Kopitar/Williams against a hot Sharks team, and they see a stomping. The Kings will need to prove that they belong on Thursday.

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04-12-2011, 12:44 AM
  #217
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... Starting with the 4-1 win at Washington on February 12, Bernier started 3 games in a 9 game stretch. Then, Bernier and Quick alternated for the next 7 games. The Kings' record for these 16 games: 11-5, with one shootout win and one shootout loss. Bernier's last start in this alternating arrangement was a 4-2 win over Nashville, where the Kings were outshot 32-18. The alternating ended after the horrific 4-0 loss to St. Louis, where three of Quick's goals allowed were soft, including the goal from the red line.
Oh... I misunderstood you. I thought you were talking about a team that had rotated their goalies in the playoffs with success before... you know, something relevant. The playoffs are so vastly differently in every way than a random stretch of games in February... well, its nice that it worked before but I just don't take 7 games in February to mean much to what it to come starting Thursday.


Quote:
... LOL. Spare me the talk about "stones", here. He'll do what he has to do. I don't believe that Bernier has less heart desire grit nads etc etc etc than Quick does, simply because Quick had the #1 spot fall into his lap and was in the right place at the right time and Bernier wasn't. I'm aware that not all things are fair; that's part of life. But this talk about whether or not Bernier has the mental toughness of Quick is just crap. Bernier improved his game markedly as the season went along, and Quick saw his game decline. Those are the facts.
Now you are the one who misunderstands me. I didn't make this a comparison of stones or heart or anything here between the two goalies. I was purely talking about Bernier. What can he/is he supposed to do in the role of back-up? Practice hard and prove he has mental toughness to stay in good shape and ready to play at a high level while sitting on the bench. That's all... its part of being a backup.

Quick may have skipped that step, but it was entirely to do with team need and Quick lighting the world on fire when he stepped into a battered and beaten Kings team. But whatever, how Quick got the #1 job in the first place is irrelevant.


Quote:
... I'm sorry, but I don't believe that Jonathan Quick is some sort of delicate snowflake, here. Nor do I believe he's stupid; he knows damn well what Bernier's been doing, and the improvement in his game. I don't believe it would be a big shock to Quick, nor do I see where it's playing "head games" to sit both guys down and tell them that they both deserve playoff starts and that they will be alternating games, based on the fact that the team enjoyed their last hot streak with that arrangement. If that's too much for Quick, then maybe he doesn't have what it takes to be a #1?
I don't think he is a snowflake at all. I think you are taking for granted in a big way that these guys are A) human and B) playing the most mental position in all of sports.

Try golf sometime. It will teach a thing or two about how important the mental side of a game is and how easily it is stressed and taxed, regardless of how 'tough' the person is.

I really don't think any coach would EVER dream of sitting his goalies down and telling them that, no matter how much sense it made. There is more to this than logic JT. A LOT more. All Murray needs to say to Quick is "go get 'em". Seriously man, I don't see how you don't see that telling Quick he is splitting games with Bernier because of a stretch of 7 games from 2 months ago ISN'T going to get in Quick's head. He would have to be dead inside for that not to mess with his head even a little bit, and if you mess with your goalies head even a little bit right before the playoffs, you've already failed as a coach.

I'm imagining this situation if Quick were Patrick Roy (not as good as Roy, just Roy the person). I imagine Roy would leave that meeting and destroy the first live creature he saw.

"If that's too much for Quick, maybe he shouldn't be a #1".. that's just a ludicrous thing to say.

Quote:
Will the possibility of some competition between these two young goalies hurt the team in any way? No.
You can not say that with a straight face. It might be your opinion, but to just dismiss out of hand how igniting a goalie competition NOW of all ****ing times couldn't possibly, in some way, JUST MAYBE, hurt the team? I love how well you understand numbers JT, you do so in a way that makes my head hurt at times, but you really seem to have a hard time understanding people. You talk as if these guys are automatons.

It may be a good thing to spark a competition, but there are a vast number of ways it could not just hurt, but absolutely unravel the team to create a duel between the goalies at this point in the season when there hasn't been one the entire year.

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04-12-2011, 12:46 AM
  #218
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PLEASE give the goalie argument a rest for god's sake. How many freaking threads have we had this year with the SAME arguments from the SAME posters?

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04-12-2011, 12:47 AM
  #219
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... Number one, there is no "twisting" of stats. Number two, you're not even twisting stats with your assertion; you're projecting your own bias of Quick on to other teams in the league. Are you willing to say Quick is superior to Hiller? or Rinne? or Ward? or Vokoun? or Bryzgalov? or Fleury? Or Niemi? Quick isn't superior to any of them, so by elimination, he's absolutely NOT "easily top 10" in the league. He's in the pack, anywhere from about 13-17 in the NHL.
Ok, so it's not really subjective, it's just...not very accurate as it relies on numbers,

IE. they are saying a 30 foot shot is easier to stop than a 15 foot shot, yet what they can't put in there is the traffic involved, and other factors that just aren't in,

But hey, you can put your faith in that number if you want.

As far as the rest of your post, yea, I would take Quick over any of those goaltenders you listed with the exception of Rinne, I simply forgot about him, he has had a Vezina type year...of course the year before this year he wasn't as good, but to see the improvement is great for Nashville.

As far as the other ones you listed, sorry, I would take Quick before any of them...

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04-12-2011, 12:47 AM
  #220
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... Number one, there is no "twisting" of stats.
Oh ofcourse there is. If we are talking in general here, you can easily and most people do skew numbers. The numbers can be right in the most narrow sense of terms (ie: goalie X made X saves last night), but what you do with those stats is entirely twistable. Goalie X made X saves, therefore goalie X rules. No, goalie X made X saves therefore the team in front of him sucks.

Stats need more stats to have meaning, and then they need more stats to back up those meanings. Its the problem with stats, there's always another one, another way of looking at the same things, another analysis that somewhat mirrors another stat but from a different angle or with a different set of standards.

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04-12-2011, 12:47 AM
  #221
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It's ironic that people are spending inordinate amounts of time complaining about parts of the team that are in excellent shape for a playoff run. Team defense is one of the best in the league and our goaltending tandem is one of the best in the league.

Almost no time talking about actual problems, such as how the Kings are unable to score more than a goal or two a game without Kopitar or Williams or the absolutely dismal power play.

And NO time talking about the playoff pushover that is Joe Thornton.



"I am disappoint!"

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04-12-2011, 12:53 AM
  #222
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PLEASE give the goalie argument a rest for god's sake. How many freaking threads have we had this year with the SAME arguments from the SAME posters?
LOL.

Hey... I've avoided this argument for like two whole months now. I was due.

But you are right, so I'll give it a rest now. Its a pointless discussion anyways. Quick is starting. Its the right choice (even if he ****s up, 20/20 hindsight is meaningless). End of story, bring on Thursday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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04-12-2011, 12:55 AM
  #223
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It's ironic that people are spending inordinate amounts of time complaining about parts of the team that are in excellent shape for a playoff run. Team defense is one of the best in the league and our goaltending tandem is one of the best in the league.

Almost no time talking about actual problems, such as how the Kings are unable to score more than a goal or two a game without Kopitar or Williams or the absolutely dismal power play.

And NO time talking about the playoff pushover that is Joe Thornton.



"I am disappoint!"
Why would we talk about a guy who isn't going to be on the ice? Oh sure, someone will show up in skates and a #19 Shark jersey, but while that may look like Thornton on the ice, it won't be. It will merely be a shell. A wisp. An apparition that is less useful to the Sharks than a thumb up their collective butts.

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04-12-2011, 12:57 AM
  #224
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The whole Quick-Bernier discussion should have it's own thread. It's pretty clear that we're starting Quick. I'd rather spend this thread discussing how we can beat the strong SJ team, like increasing our offensive creativity and execution, getting our shots through from the blue line, not making risky passing plays at the blue line, and stopping the endless passing that leads to turnovers(!).

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04-12-2011, 12:57 AM
  #225
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Why would we talk about a guy who isn't going to be on the ice? Oh sure, someone will show up in skates and a #19 Shark jersey, but while that may look like Thornton on the ice, it won't be. It will merely be a shell. A wisp. An apparition that is less useful to the Sharks than a thumb up their collective butts.
THERE we go.

GO KINGS GO!

The Kings are going to have to play a boring, sludge-filled neutral zone game with stellar D and goaltending to have a chance. Thankfully, team D is fully healthy and ready to go.

The Kings can score a goal or two a game. They just can't allow more than that. It's a tall order to keep 4 games of 7 under 2 goals allowed, but that's what the Kings are going to have to do to win this series. It's the only way. That means near flawless team D, PK and goaltending. They can do that. It won't be pretty, but in the playoffs, it's everything.

TonySCV is online now  
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