HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Philadelphia Flyers
Notices

Phillies' Baseball (MLB): Contreras to Popular Belief

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-10-2011, 10:18 AM
  #876
mm6492
Registered User
 
mm6492's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 8,509
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bazinga View Post
Howard dropped a foul flyball, but that doesnt excuse Stutes from letting up a homer to McCann or for the offense not scoring a single run outside of Lee's hr.
I am more mad about Howard going o-5 with 2 K's bring his average to a stunning .254.

Should I add in his contract extension kicks in next year....



And thanks Jester for pointing out why RBI's suck.

mm6492 is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 10:54 AM
  #877
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
It wasn't a better stat in 1950... they just didn't have better stats in 1950. It predates when people that actually understand statistics began to actually pay attention to baseball.

RBIs are a flawed stat for a variety of reasons, but most importantly because they are far more of a team statistic than an individual statistic. Outside of a HR, you cannot get a RBI without someone else being on base in front of you. Who does more to generate a RBI, the guy that bunted the runner over from 2nd, or the guy that hits the sac fly?

As to your question about why it's the same guys... largely because the same guys hit in the 3-4-5 holes. Thus why Carlos Ruiz can hit .293 with RISP and only get 42 RBIs out of it, while Jayson Werth can hit .186 and get 51 RBIs with RISP.

RBIs are a blunt force statistic that ignores a ton of nuance, and a ton of context.
I'm not going to belabor the point but using that logic most all stats can be looked at that way... and is dependant on others and situations... That being said, we cannot assume that given the same exact circumstances other will perform as well or better. It is what it is and Howard performs well in knocking in RBIs and IIRC he has been among the top in RBIs both when the Phillies are stacked with great batters before him as well as when, as can be said about this season, he lineup is nor performing... as in a lesser team.

The name of the game is scoring more and giving up less... while pitchers are aided by defense and heir catcher and other circumstance, batters are also, as you pointed out... but in the end the team needs pitchers to come through and batters to do so also, and combined they will outscore the opposition. Howard has come through for the Phillies season after season and the Phillies have benefited... and they are paying him for his knack to be able to come through so often when it counts -- certainly not every time... and he will have clunkers like yesterday -- He is being paid extremely well for doing what he does and he has yet to have let them down when looked at over the course of a season... And face it, the Phillies could insert a player with a better average into the #4 slot but choose no to for a reason.

While all stats can be used to be misleading... in that manner, IMO having high RBI stats is meaningful... He is one off the NL lead on a team that often finds it hard to put up a lot of runs... meaningful in my book.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 11:18 AM
  #878
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
I'm not going to belabor the point but using that logic most all stats can be looked at that way... and is dependant on others and situations... That being said, we cannot assume that given the same exact circumstances other will perform as well or better. It is what it is and Howard performs well in knocking in RBIs and IIRC he has been among the top in RBIs both when the Phillies are stacked with great batters before him as well as when, as can be said about this season, he lineup is nor performing... as in a lesser team.

The name of the game is scoring more and giving up less... while pitchers are aided by defense and heir catcher and other circumstance, batters are also, as you pointed out... but in the end the team needs pitchers to come through and batters to do so also, and combined they will outscore the opposition. Howard has come through for the Phillies season after season and the Phillies have benefited... and they are paying him for his knack to be able to come through so often when it counts -- certainly not every time... and he will have clunkers like yesterday -- He is being paid extremely well for doing what he does and he has yet to have let them down when looked at over the course of a season... And face it, the Phillies could insert a player with a better average into the #4 slot but choose no to for a reason.

While all stats can be used to be misleading... in that manner, IMO having high RBI stats is meaningful... He is one off the NL lead on a team that often finds it hard to put up a lot of runs... meaningful in my book.
There are about a million things wrong with the stat argument you are making here. The rest of your team, for example, has very little to do with OPS and BA. Tony Gwynn wasn't a great hitter because of his teammates.

Ryan Howard is a high OPS hitter batting in the middle of the lineup... THAT is why he posts high RBI numbers. Disputing the usefulness of RBIs says nothing about Howard as a run producer. He has a career .933 OPS, that is why you should expect high RBI totals.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 11:37 AM
  #879
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
There are about a million things wrong with the stat argument you are making here. The rest of your team, for example, has very little to do with OPS and BA. Tony Gwynn wasn't a great hitter because of his teammates.

Ryan Howard is a high OPS hitter batting in the middle of the lineup... THAT is why he posts high RBI numbers. Disputing the usefulness of RBIs says nothing about Howard as a run producer. He has a career .933 OPS, that is why you should expect high RBI totals.
I did say most all stats... of course there are some stand alone stats. My point was that that argument of a stat being a bad stat for the reasons you stated can be made for more stats than not... I see the point but don't want to ignore the fact that Howard is constantly among the elite in RBIs by saying it is meaningless.

One other way of looking at it is if Howard were not in the lineup would the Phillies have a player to make up for his lost RBIs? Put another player in his exact circumstances relating to surrounding players and see if they have similar results. Teams often fall into the false notion that players can be plugged in seamlessy... I'm by no means suggesting that you are saying such, I'm just saying that his being an RBI leader year after year is not a meaningless stat.


In the end I believe all stats can be used and misused for arguments sake, but when used in the proper framing they are not meaningless... I would value a consistently high RBI producer greatly.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 12:06 PM
  #880
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
I did say most all stats... of course there are some stand alone stats. My point was that that argument of a stat being a bad stat for the reasons you stated can be made for more stats than not... I see the point but don't want to ignore the fact that Howard is constantly among the elite in RBIs by saying it is meaningless.

One other way of looking at it is if Howard were not in the lineup would the Phillies have a player to make up for his lost RBIs? Put another player in his exact circumstances relating to surrounding players and see if they have similar results. Teams often fall into the false notion that players can be plugged in seamlessy... I'm by no means suggesting that you are saying such, I'm just saying that his being an RBI leader year after year is not a meaningless stat.


In the end I believe all stats can be used and misused for arguments sake, but when used in the proper framing they are not meaningless... I would value a consistently high RBI producer greatly.
Sure, if you go sign someone in his mold... which is why his contract is atrocious. There are a lot of 1B who would produce essentially the same run production in his slot out there for a lot cheaper. Like, say, Adam Dunn.

And, yes, players can be plugged in... especially in baseball. It's a highly individual sport with very little player-to-player relationship. There are effects that translate... for example, a weaker hitter can be buoyed in a strong lineup by getting better pitches to see (Jayson Werth). At the same time, however, if you plug Player Type A into a slot where that type of player is effective, they'll be effective.

It has been empirically proven that RBIs are pretty much worthless as a means of analyzing a player. Thus the 1950s comment... your confusion on that point suggests that you don't really bother to pay attention to stat analysis (which is fine), but makes this discussion kind of a waste of time. There is a wealth of writing out there these days about all of this stuff.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 12:44 PM
  #881
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Sure, if you go sign someone in his mold... which is why his contract is atrocious. There are a lot of 1B who would produce essentially the same run production in his slot out there for a lot cheaper. Like, say, Adam Dunn.

And, yes, players can be plugged in... especially in baseball. It's a highly individual sport with very little player-to-player relationship. There are effects that translate... for example, a weaker hitter can be buoyed in a strong lineup by getting better pitches to see (Jayson Werth). At the same time, however, if you plug Player Type A into a slot where that type of player is effective, they'll be effective.

It has been empirically proven that RBIs are pretty much worthless as a means of analyzing a player. Thus the 1950s comment... your confusion on that point suggests that you don't really bother to pay attention to stat analysis (which is fine), but makes this discussion kind of a waste of time. There is a wealth of writing out there these days about all of this stuff.
Do you believe Amaro used that argument when Howard's agent put up his being among the RBI leaders... and do you honestly believe it was accepted as a proven fact?

And yes, you can plug in another player from outside -- which BTW was not what I was getting at as I was really asking if they can from within the System -- but in doing so I would think that they would look at a player with good RBI stats, as you alluded too.

As for getting one cheaper, that would be possible... but I'd argue getting one easily that would produce near or at that level... but Howard's money IMO is being paid for much more than RBIs. Other things come into play such as drawing power and keeping a fan base favorite, as well as having a marque HR hitter, to name but a few... Over the period of the Philles boom period I believe Howard has been the offensive centerpiece, and it is difficult to plug in a centerpiece.


Last edited by Sawdalite: 07-10-2011 at 12:59 PM.
Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 12:59 PM
  #882
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
The contract Amaro gave Howard is atrocious, I don't really care what arguments were made in those negotiations.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:20 PM
  #883
Justified
Moderator
Sack Holmgren &Amaro
 
Justified's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 26,739
vCash: 673
The Howard contract is horrendous, but there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Justified is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:26 PM
  #884
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The contract Amaro gave Howard is atrocious, I don't really care what arguments were made in those negotiations.
I think all major contracts in ML are atrocious... but had Rubin not given it Ryan would have probably gotten that and more in offers from other GMs. In a bidding war no telling how much he would have gotten. I believe NYC and the Yankees would have crapped their collective drawers just at the thought of having him in the blue pinstripes.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:28 PM
  #885
Justified
Moderator
Sack Holmgren &Amaro
 
Justified's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 26,739
vCash: 673
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
I think all major contracts in ML are atrocious... but had Rubin not given it Ryan would have probably gotten that and more in offers from other GMs. In a bidding war no telling how much he would have gotten. I believe NYC and the Yankees would have crapped their collective drawers just at the thought of having him in the blue pinstripes.
I would have been fine with letting howard go due to the fact they have singleton and they could play Utley at 1st until he is ready.

Justified is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:29 PM
  #886
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Holy craps did Martinez just make a great play or what?

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:31 PM
  #887
Justified
Moderator
Sack Holmgren &Amaro
 
Justified's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 26,739
vCash: 673
That was awesome.

Justified is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:32 PM
  #888
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bazinga View Post
I would have been fine with letting howard go due to the fact they have singleton and they could play Utley at 1st until he is ready.
I wouldn't count too heavily on Utley any longer.

... Had they let Howard go they would have been wise to auction him off and restock the System/Team as best they could.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:38 PM
  #889
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Ahem

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:43 PM
  #890
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
I wouldn't count too heavily on Utley any longer.

... Had they let Howard go they would have been wise to auction him off and restock the System/Team as best they could.
There is a never ending stream of guys that could replace 85% of Howards production at a fraction of the cost. It may be the worst contract in baseball, and that isn't hyperbole.

Howard is currently 12th in OPS for qualified 1B, and not even close to the elite guys. Last year, 8th.

That is without getting into OF guys that could transfer to 1B for you.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 01:46 PM
  #891
Yoshimitsu
Registered User
 
Yoshimitsu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 4,920
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
Do you believe Amaro used that argument when Howard's agent put up his being among the RBI leaders... and do you honestly believe it was accepted as a proven fact?
It has been accepted as fact. The only people who still value RBIs are fantasy baseball players (because it has value in their leagues) and old people who refuse to learn new statistics (Joe Morgan, etc). RBI is a god awful stat. Wins for a pitcher and RBI for a hitter are the two worst stats in baseball, maybe all of sports. They tell you almost nothing about the quality of a player.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
http://www.fangraphs.com/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/
http://www.tangotiger.net/

Some resources for people who want to learn more about good stats instead of using garbage, antiquated stats.

Yoshimitsu is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:05 PM
  #892
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
There is a never ending stream of guys that could replace 85% of Howards production at a fraction of the cost. It may be the worst contract in baseball, and that isn't hyperbole.

Howard is currently 12th in OPS for qualified 1B, and not even close to the elite guys. Last year, 8th.

That is without getting into OF guys that could transfer to 1B for you.
If RBIs meant nothing that would mean something.

Seriously though, Howard will not get on as much as others that is true... but he makes the best out of his times on apparently.

Remember when the Phillies were accused of not spending enough?... Now it's for overpaying.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:06 PM
  #893
JDinklage Morgoone
Formerly Hextall89
 
JDinklage Morgoone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: 308 Negra Arroyo Ln.
Country: Uzbekistan
Posts: 10,450
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
It has been accepted as fact. The only people who still value RBIs are fantasy baseball players (because it has value in their leagues) and old people who refuse to learn new statistics (Joe Morgan, etc). RBI is a god awful stat. Wins for a pitcher and RBI for a hitter are the two worst stats in baseball, maybe all of sports. They tell you almost nothing about the quality of a player.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
http://www.fangraphs.com/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/
http://www.tangotiger.net/

Some resources for people who want to learn more about good stats instead of using garbage, antiquated stats.
I really hate when people try to legitimize how good pitchers are with wins. So frustrating.

__________________
"People usually get what's coming to them, unless it has been mailed."
-Fred Shero
JDinklage Morgoone is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:22 PM
  #894
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hextall89 View Post
I really hate when people try to legitimize how good pitchers are with wins. So frustrating.
Robin Roberts had like six straight 20 win seasons IIRC in the Fifties... I remember right after that when he was like 3-16 or so with awful Phillies teams -- had he not been on such horrid squads he would have had 300+ wins easily.

I will never argue that stats tell the correct tale at all times... like with most all things numbers can be crunched to prove and disprove almost anything... depending on how you use them and when you use them... and when you don't use them.

Certainly isolated facts do not tell the entire story... but when used correctly they do give indications of parts of the whole.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:23 PM
  #895
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
If RBIs meant nothing that would mean something.

Seriously though, Howard will not get on as much as others that is true... but he makes the best out of his times on apparently.

Remember when the Phillies were accused of not spending enough?... Now it's for overpaying.
Think you are confusing OPS with OBP in this post.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:25 PM
  #896
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
Robin Roberts had like six straight 20 win seasons IIRC in the Fifties... I remember right after that when he was like 3-16 or so with awful Phillies teams -- had he not been on such horrid squads he would have had 300+ wins easily.

I will never argue that stats tell the correct tale at all times... like with most all things numbers can be crunched to prove and disprove almost anything... depending on how you use them and when you use them... and when you don't use them.

Certainly isolated facts do not tell the entire story... but when used correctly they do give indications of parts of the whole.
This ignores that advanced/new stats do actually tell a more accurate story.

Jester is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:28 PM
  #897
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Except for that one play at second, the Braves have been slapping some great leather this series.

They have the fielding and obviously the pitching to not go away very easily this season.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:30 PM
  #898
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Think you are confusing OPS with OBP in this post.
Sorry... went where my mind was heading and not what I was reading.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:36 PM
  #899
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
This ignores that advanced/new stats do actually tell a more accurate story.
Advanced or antiquated... numbers are numbers and numbers can and are always used to the benefit of those using them.

Unless they have come up with a new kind of numbers I would expect them to be used that way... in fact only a fool or an honest man would use them in any other way.

But I do understand that they are attempting to look at things in a better manner... but again it is all in how they use them.

Sawdalite is offline  
Old
07-10-2011, 02:57 PM
  #900
Sawdalite
AbleWasIEreISawLupul
 
Sawdalite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Girouxsalem
Posts: 5,276
vCash: 500
That's it... officially blown the Hell open.

Sawdalite is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:05 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.