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Old
04-19-2011, 03:34 PM
  #251
murp0837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
"Easier night" doesn't nullify a better performance. Boucher let in fewer goals on appreciably more shots. Regardless of the challenge, he had a better result. We can argue semantics all you like but

to perform better than one's opponent in a sport or game

is the definition of "outplay." By allowing one fewer goal, Boucher performed better.

E: Neither goaltender was challenged in game 1.
The flaw in your argument is assuming that the goaltender is solely responsible for goals. He's not; goals scored are a team stat. Baseball someone circumvents this issue with the "earned" run, but even that is flawed.

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04-19-2011, 03:35 PM
  #252
Connor McDavid
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I said that in my original post. While it's an outside factor important to consider, it doesn't invalidate the fact Boucher had a better game.

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04-19-2011, 03:36 PM
  #253
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Quality versus quantity. Boucher made more saves - Miller made harder saves. If Boucher played outplayed Miller, then you must think that we would have fared better with Boucher in Millers place.

If not - then you're conflating the team and the system with the goalie.
and the lesson learned is?

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04-19-2011, 03:40 PM
  #254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
See, you're delving into subjective measures, which I explicitly avoided. Boucher as a goalie of the Flyers had a better game than Miller as a goalie of the Sabres.
Keep pretending that's an objective fact if you want, but "better" is a subjective term. Boucher made more saves. He let in fewer goals. That does not mean he played better.

Would we have done better with Boucher in net?

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04-19-2011, 03:42 PM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
I said that in my original post. While it's an outside factor important to consider, it doesn't invalidate the fact Boucher had a better game.
No, the only fact here is that Boucher had better stats. Better stats ≠ better game, since they did not face the same shots.

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and the lesson learned is?
Our offense sucks right now.

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04-19-2011, 03:42 PM
  #256
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I actually missed this game.

Was sick as a dog all day yesterday with a stomach bug, and couldn't even pull myself out of bed to go to the couch and watch the game.

Given the outcome, I'm kind of glad I didn't. Sure wouldn't have helped me feel any better.

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Old
04-19-2011, 03:50 PM
  #257
murp0837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
I said that in my original post. While it's an outside factor important to consider, it doesn't invalidate the fact Boucher had a better game.
It doesn't validate it, either. It's purely conjecture.

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04-19-2011, 03:55 PM
  #258
Connor McDavid
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Keep pretending that's an objective fact if you want, but "better" is a subjective term. Boucher made more saves. He let in fewer goals. That does not mean he played better.

Would we have done better with Boucher in net?
Fine, instead of "better" I'll say statistically superior. Happy?

Boucher's game was, in a vacuum, superior to Miller's. With relevant factors considered, it's not as huge a divide, but "difficulty" of shots is not enough to overturn such a disparity. If it was, what's to stop someone from saying Miller had a better season than Thomas? Miller's obviously the more talented of the two, but even with his defense weighed against him, Thomas' season was far and away better than Miller's. It's a sloppy way to make a point, but I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here.

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04-19-2011, 03:57 PM
  #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murp0837 View Post
It doesn't validate it, either. It's purely conjecture.
The statistics validate it. If one wants to argue otherwise the burden of proof is on them.

And in regard to wild hypotheticals I'll say the Sabres would have blown out the Flyers due to Miller's poor positioning and the reliance of their defense to trust him to make the save. I have nothing to base it on except the spite of being asked to respond to such an unanswerable question.

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04-19-2011, 04:11 PM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
The statistics validate it. If one wants to argue otherwise the burden of proof is on them.

And in regard to wild hypotheticals I'll say the Sabres would have blown out the Flyers due to Miller's poor positioning and the reliance of their defense to trust him to make the save. I have nothing to base it on except the spite of being asked to respond to such an unanswerable question.
The statistics are flawed. You are basing your hypothesis on shots and goals against. Not all shots are the same; not all factors leading to goals are the same.

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Old
04-19-2011, 04:16 PM
  #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murp0837 View Post
The statistics are flawed. You are basing your hypothesis on shots and goals against. Not all shots are the same; not all factors leading to goals are the same.
The very definition of subjective analysis, which while important, is not supreme.

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04-19-2011, 04:22 PM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Fine, instead of "better" I'll say statistically superior. Happy?

Boucher's game was, in a vacuum, superior to Miller's. With relevant factors considered, it's not as huge a divide, but "difficulty" of shots is not enough to overturn such a disparity. If it was, what's to stop someone from saying Miller had a better season than Thomas? Miller's obviously the more talented of the two, but even with his defense weighed against him, Thomas' season was far and away better than Miller's. It's a sloppy way to make a point, but I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here.
I don't know what your obsession with this vacuum thing is. No one cares about that, they care about how well they actually played, which like it or not is highly dependent on what kinds of shots they faced.

Example

Team A racks up 100 SOG but they all slowly travel towards the goalie's pads with no interference or defelctions. Goalie 1 racks up 100 saves.

Team B only fires 20 SOG, but many of them are deflections, many others are roofed right under the crossbar, and yet more are one-timers at the end of a tic-tac-toe play. Goalie 2 lets it 10 goals.

Q: Is there any way to tell which goalie played better?

A: No, although you could argue both ways depending on how well you estimate Goalie 1 would have fared if he had faced Team B's shots (which is exactly whats going on here).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
The statistics validate it. If one wants to argue otherwise the burden of proof is on them.

And in regard to wild hypotheticals I'll say the Sabres would have blown out the Flyers due to Miller's poor positioning and the reliance of their defense to trust him to make the save. I have nothing to base it on except the spite of being asked to respond to such an unanswerable question.
I don't know what to tell you dude, thats exactly what we're all doing, providing the proof. Miller faced tons of difficult shots, Boucher faced tons of easy shots. Because of this disparity, the argument is made that despite the inferior stats, Miller still played better. I don't see how thats so implausible.

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Old
04-19-2011, 04:38 PM
  #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
See, you're delving into subjective measures, which I explicitly avoided. Boucher as a goalie of the Flyers had a better game than Miller as a goalie of the Sabres.
No. No he did not. Miller frankly outplayed Boucher. He made better saves, and two of the three he did let in were completely unstoppable. (And he made enough great saves in the 2nd to make up for the fluky/redirected 1st goal) But the Flyers outplayed the Sabres badly in the 2nd period and locked them down in the 3rd and that was the difference.

And the idea that Miller could have played the 2nd goal better is absurd. It was a 3 on freaking 0. If Miller leaves the post before the pass, it's an easy goal. He got over and out as fast as he possibly could, and made Briere bury it just underneath the bar. He did. And he made a number of anticipation saves on cross-ice passes that looked like sure goals in the 2nd period.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame
yes, you can outplay someone and lose... like Dobrovsky did in game 1
Wait, so now Bob outplayed Miller in game 1....a game that saw few chances for both sides but where Buffalo's goal came on a kicked out rebound? This is the theatre of the absurd.

And it's not like Miller faced 0 good chances. He made a couple of huge saves in the dying minutes of the 2nd period to keep it 0-0. I believe it was JVR he stopped on a cross-crease one timer to keep it tied.

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04-19-2011, 04:41 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
The very definition of subjective analysis, which while important, is not supreme.
Neither is statistical analysis when the statistics are influenced by outside factors. It's why scouts actually watch games and film. Frankly, as someone who has a statistics degree, your argument is infuriating. It's the kind of amateur argument that gives statistics a bad name.

It'd be like saying a guy who drives the ball 250 yards downwind and downhill is a better driver than the guy who hits it 240 uphill and into the wind.

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04-19-2011, 04:42 PM
  #265
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It's unlikely any goalie would have saved any of the goals that Philly scored on Miller in game 3 if facing those same shots.
A) Boucher's team >>>>> Miller's team
B) Philly's scoring chances >>>>>>>>>>>> Buffalo's scoring chances
Boucher's team will likely take the series. Not because Boucher >>>>> Miller, but because of A & B.

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Old
04-19-2011, 04:52 PM
  #266
Connor McDavid
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
It'd be like saying a guy who drives the ball 250 yards downwind and downhill is a better driver than the guy who hits it 240 uphill and into the wind.
Except it's really not. It's saying that the first golfer had a better drive, which he did. 250 yards trumps 240 regardless of outside factors. He's not a better golfer because of it but the drive is better. I've never said Boucher is a better goaltender than Miller.

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04-19-2011, 04:54 PM
  #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Except it's really not. It's saying that the first golfer had a better drive, which he did. 250 yards trumps 240 regardless of outside factors. He's not a better golfer because of it but the drive is better. I've never said Boucher is a better goaltender than Miller.
I would say that 240 uphill and upwind is a better drive than 250 downhill and downwind. I don't think you'll find too many golfers (or really, sane people) who disagree with that.

Things DON'T happen in a vacuum.

The inference you're making when you say Boucher had a better game than Miller is that he did more to give his team a chance to win than Miller did. That's absurd. Miller was the only reason this game was close entering into the 3rd period, and the goal Boucher allowed to Gerbe (popping an unscreened rebound back into the slot and getting beat glove side on that rebound after getting relatively set) was the worst goal either goalie allowed all game.

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04-19-2011, 04:56 PM
  #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
No. No he did not. Miller frankly outplayed Boucher. He made better saves, and two of the three he did let in were completely unstoppable. (And he made enough great saves in the 2nd to make up for the fluky/redirected 1st goal) But the Flyers outplayed the Sabres badly in the 2nd period and locked them down in the 3rd and that was the difference.
Completely unstoppable? Don't be ridiculous, goaltenders make reaction saves happen all the time. Sure, his chances of stopping them were low, but an elite goaltender has to deliver eventually.

And just because you quantify saves as "great" or "difficult" doesn't necessarily make them so, despite your statistics degree.

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04-19-2011, 04:58 PM
  #269
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
I would say that 240 uphill and upwind is a better drive than 250 downhill and downwind. I don't think you'll find too many golfers (or really, sane people) who disagree with that.

Things DON'T happen in a vacuum.
In match play, on the same hole, under fluctuating conditions, the longer drive is superior. Miller and Boucher aren't loosing their drives on separate courses. Maybe Miller's hitting off the pro tee. If Boucher beats him he still had the better day.

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04-19-2011, 04:59 PM
  #270
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post

The inference you're making when you say Boucher had a better game than Miller is that he did more to give his team a chance to win than Miller did. That's absurd. Miller was the only reason this game was close entering into the 3rd period, and the goal Boucher allowed to Gerbe (popping an unscreened rebound back into the slot and getting beat glove side on that rebound after getting relatively set) was the worst goal either goalie allowed all game.
Triple post, but w/e.

Boucher did. He did what the Flyers system demanded him to do, in being good enough. Miller was not elite, and failed the Sabres. That's partially a failure in coaching, but Miller has the ability to be better and has not done so the past two games.

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04-19-2011, 05:00 PM
  #271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Completely unstoppable? Don't be ridiculous, goaltenders make reaction saves happen all the time. Sure, his chances of stopping them were low, but an elite goaltender has to deliver eventually.

And just because you quantify saves as "great" or "difficult" doesn't necessarily make them so, despite your statistics degree.
A goaltender will never, ever, ever make a save on that play when the shooter gets a clean one-timer off just underneath the bar. He'd have to have rocket skates to get off of the post and out far enough to cut off the angle underneath the crossbar.

And if you don't think Miller made a number of great saves in the 2nd period, I don't know what to tell you.

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04-19-2011, 05:02 PM
  #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
Triple post, but w/e.

Boucher did. He did what the Flyers system demanded him to do, in being good enough. Miller was not elite, and failed the Sabres. That's partially a failure in coaching, but Miller has the ability to be better and has not done so the past two games.
But Miller and Boucher aren't even CLOSE to playing the same hole. That was the point of the metaphor. Last night's game was Miller playing Augusta and Boucher playing your neighborhood private course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems
Triple post, but w/e.

Boucher did. He did what the Flyers system demanded him to do, in being good enough. Miller was not elite, and failed the Sabres. That's partially a failure in coaching, but Miller has the ability to be better and has not done so the past two games.
Well, now that I know that you really have no grasp on the reality of hockey when it comes to Miller, I think I'll leave this argument here.

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04-19-2011, 05:10 PM
  #273
jlr
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
and the lesson learned is?
Uh, the Flyers are a better team than the Sabres?

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04-19-2011, 05:14 PM
  #274
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
Neither is statistical analysis when the statistics are influenced by outside factors. It's why scouts actually watch games and film. Frankly, as someone who has a statistics degree, your argument is infuriating. It's the kind of amateur argument that gives statistics a bad name.

It'd be like saying a guy who drives the ball 250 yards downwind and downhill is a better driver than the guy who hits it 240 uphill and into the wind.
I feel the exact same way. These arguments that some make are borderline absurd. I'll leave the argument to you because you're doing it well.

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Old
04-19-2011, 05:18 PM
  #275
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Holy cow

and here I thought no one could get as carried away as Jame and I.

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