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19th plus what? Get the Oil a top ten pick?

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Old
04-30-2011, 09:51 PM
  #101
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There is a big-time drop off in terms of talent after the first 8 or 9 picks this year, this assuming that everyone is high on flavour of the last 2 months Zbinajad.

The only sure fire elite status guys are the group of top 5 forwards and the 3 elite dman available who you can (with high probability) say they will be top 2 line/2nd pairing guys. After that it`s bingo luck, hit and miss prospects.

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05-01-2011, 03:47 AM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ponder View Post
7 full seasons have passed since Smid was drafted, and he's spent 5 full seasons in the NHL. He's been more or less a bottom pairing guy the whole time, and if he has no spot in the top 4 of arguably the worst group of defenders in the league going forward, then I'd say it's a safe bet to assume he'll continue to be a bottom pairing guy in the future. Bottom pairing dmen are not worth much.

I'd say the top 6 picks are very unlikely to be traded, so if Edmonton wants a second top 10 pick, that means they'd need to deal with Atlanta, Columbus, Boston or Minny (ranked 7-10 respectively). I assume Edmonton fans won't want to move Hall, Eberle, MPS, Omark or Whitney, so what else does that leave? Gagner or Hemsky basically? I'll bet Hemsky alone could get pretty much any of these picks (with some salary coming back in some situations), but not sure the Oilers would do that. As for Gagner, do any of these teams really need an undersized, average C? Gagner is the kind of guy who's top 6 or bust, and on a lot of teams he wouldn't be good enough to be the 1st or 2nd line C.

When is the last time a team actually managed to move up from outside of the top 15 into the top 10? The closest recent example I can think of was in 2007 when the Sharks moved up for Couture (great move in retrospect), they traded the 13th overall pick + a 2nd and a 3rd for the 9th overall pick, but 19th to top 10 is a much bigger jump. San Jose also traded up from 12th (who ended up being Marc Staal) to 8th (Devin Setoguchi) in 2005, it cost them a 2nd and a later round pick, but again that was a much smaller jump. I can't really think of the last time a team jumped from around 20th overall into the top 10, it very rarely happens.
If we did decide to use picks as the preferred trade bail we have the luxury of having the highest pick in each round. Ie. our 2nd is #31 while SJ's would've been 42nd. IMO the 31st overall pick is worth 42nd + a later round pick and then some. So let's say that we added our 2nd and Calgary's 3rd? That's #31 and a mid 3rd. That said I'd much rather move Hemsky to get a top 10 pick and then potentially trade up a few spots from #19 if there is a player that we covet that might not slide all the way down to #19.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4thliner View Post
There is a big-time drop off in terms of talent after the first 8 or 9 picks this year, this assuming that everyone is high on flavour of the last 2 months Zbinajad.

The only sure fire elite status guys are the group of top 5 forwards and the 3 elite dman available who you can (with high probability) say they will be top 2 line/2nd pairing guys. After that it`s bingo luck, hit and miss prospects.
That might not be how our scouts see it.

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Old
05-01-2011, 07:04 AM
  #103
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I think its highly unlikely for Edmonton and Boston to hook up for a deal regarding the first round of this draft. The main pieces the Bruins would be interested in, the Oilers wouldn't want to part with, and Boston would probably want to select one of the 5 blue chip defenders with the 9th overall, rather than risk not getting one 10 picks or more down.

Its highly unlikely Hemsky alone gets it done. Bruins need a winger who can snipe, not another set-up/complementary piece. Even with the 31st I'd be reticent, given Hemsky's injury history and contract status.

If the Oil are looking to move up, better look elsewhere than 9th...

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Old
05-01-2011, 10:31 AM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
The Leafs had to trade the 7th overall pick plus a 2nd and 3rd just to move up 2 spots in 2008. Moving up 10 spots would probably cost so much that it would be counter productive.

...and while 2011 may not be a weak draft, it's not the type that you sell the farm to get a top 10 pick in.
2010 draft, LA moved from 19 to 15 for a late second rounder(59)
2010 draft PHX moved from 27 to 22 for a late second rounder(57) and also got a fourth rounder
So i think if you dangle a second at 31 with 19 and maybe another small part you should be able to get to the top ten easy

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05-01-2011, 07:48 PM
  #105
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I'm pretty convident that Tambo will grab a top 10 pick somehow.. He will want to get one of Larrson,Hamilton,Siemans,Murphy

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Old
05-01-2011, 07:54 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jokerboysmith View Post
19th
Cogs
31st(?)

For

9th

"Helps out the Bruins if Peverley walks and gets the oilers the higher pick they want"

Peverly is under contract for next year. Recchi will likley retire.

Perhaps 19th, Linus Omark and the 31st for the 9th overall (previosuly Torontos pick) and a porspect like Hamil.
Cogliano... Omark... strange, you'd think you'd get back something of value dropping 10 spots.

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05-01-2011, 09:18 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
Cogliano... Omark... strange, you'd think you'd get back something of value dropping 10 spots.
Well, if Boston has no intention of trading the pick, then it really doesn't matter what we add to the package. No one is going to give you 19, 31, and a significant roster player for the 9th overall pick alone.

IMO, Boston will either try to add another puck mover, i.e. Murphy, or a scoring winger perhaps, so they will obviously not want to move down at all. If anything, maybe they try to move up a spot or 2 to get their guy.

That being said, I'm not sure why you're acting like the value is that far off. 2 picks (19 and 31) + Omark is definitely enough value IMO.

Is it what Boston needs? No, probably not. There are teams that would probably make that deal. Teams with weaker prospect pools that are farther from making the playoffs and not ready to win like Boston is.

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05-01-2011, 10:47 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
Well, if Boston has no intention of trading the pick, then it really doesn't matter what we add to the package. No one is going to give you 19, 31, and a significant roster player for the 9th overall pick alone.

IMO, Boston will either try to add another puck mover, i.e. Murphy, or a scoring winger perhaps, so they will obviously not want to move down at all. If anything, maybe they try to move up a spot or 2 to get their guy.

That being said, I'm not sure why you're acting like the value is that far off. 2 picks (19 and 31) + Omark is definitely enough value IMO.

Is it what Boston needs? No, probably not. There are teams that would probably make that deal. Teams with weaker prospect pools that are farther from making the playoffs and not ready to win like Boston is.
Cause Cogliano is garbage for one. Oilers fans don't even want this guy. And Omark is a long shot, definitely wouldn't make the Bruins roster anytime soon.

Both were added because neither would hurt to lose from an Oiler perspective, neither are very valuable. The 31st isn't enough to move up 10 spots.

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Old
05-01-2011, 10:50 PM
  #109
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i want the oil to Draft RNH and then trade up from 19 to around 10-15 to grab JAMIE OLEKSIAK by trading 19 and what ever other pick to make it work

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05-01-2011, 11:32 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
Cause Cogliano is garbage for one. Oilers fans don't even want this guy. And Omark is a long shot, definitely wouldn't make the Bruins roster anytime soon.

Both were added because neither would hurt to lose from an Oiler perspective, neither are very valuable. The 31st isn't enough to move up 10 spots.
Well, I agree for the most part. Like I said, it doesn't necessarily make sense for Boston, but that doesn't mean there is no value in the deal.

For a rebuilding team with weak prospect depth draft at around 10 that had all of their "guys" get taken before their pick, I'm sure they would find a lot more value in the deal than a Boston fan would. Value is relative, not absolute IMO.

19 + 31 probably gets you to 12 on it's on if the other team needs to add picks or isn't in love with a guy on the board around their pick. We have seen in the past that mid-late 2nd round picks can usually move a 1st round pick up 4-5 spots. For example, this happened twice in 2010 (eg. 27 to 22).

The most recent Oiler example, would be us trading 30 + 36 to get up to 21. It really just comes down to finding the right team for the deal. That team is clearly not Boston, because they are cup contender and don't need prospect depth from added picks.

Also, while I'm not as down on this draft as some, I think it's safe to say it is a weaker draft than from 2008-2010, so it should cost even less to move up when there is less discrepancy in talent between pick 12 and 31.

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Old
05-02-2011, 07:20 AM
  #111
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Then Sens offer:

2011 6th overall

for

2011 19th overall
2012 1st round pick


If the 2012 pick is 15-20 Oilers win

If the 2012 pick is 1-8 Sens win


I'd make this gamble in a second. Could be Yakupov. I don't think the Oilers will improve yet as their defense and goaltending is still pretty bad. D and G are more important than F.

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05-02-2011, 07:43 AM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitlick View Post
Then Sens offer:

2011 6th overall

for

2011 19th overall
2012 1st round pick


If the 2012 pick is 15-20 Oilers win

If the 2012 pick is 1-8 Sens win


I'd make this gamble in a second. Could be Yakupov. I don't think the Oilers will improve yet as their defense and goaltending is still pretty bad. D and G are more important than F.
I would take that action... and draft Larsson and Couturier. Tambellini has suggested that he will fill some holes this summer, and one can reasonably assume he means to do so through free agency. Perhaps a trade for a top two defender, and with Larsson in the fold the Oiler D would be set for years. Personally, I am confident in the Oilers' tandem in goal - especially if Habby only gets 1 in 3 starts; and one can assume that Tambellini also means to address the Oilers deficiency(s) in the face off circle... so, acquire a player like Konopka - or get someone for the top two and give up on Gagner and Cogliano. All of a sudden, the Oilers are a bubble team for the playoffs. Yep, I would take that action.

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Old
05-02-2011, 06:29 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
I would take that action... and draft Larsson and Couturier. Tambellini has suggested that he will fill some holes this summer, and one can reasonably assume he means to do so through free agency. Perhaps a trade for a top two defender, and with Larsson in the fold the Oiler D would be set for years. Personally, I am confident in the Oilers' tandem in goal - especially if Habby only gets 1 in 3 starts; and one can assume that Tambellini also means to address the Oilers deficiency(s) in the face off circle... so, acquire a player like Konopka - or get someone for the top two and give up on Gagner and Cogliano. All of a sudden, the Oilers are a bubble team for the playoffs. Yep, I would take that action.
I think your expectations are way too optimistic, and IMO we are about 30+ points out of the playoffs next year, unless Hall and Eberle really breakout.

It's an awful trade for the Oilers. There's a very high chance that we are a lottery team again next year. I wouldn't make that deal even if they let us keep the 19th overall pick. There is no guarantee the player we want will be there at 6th overall, plus next year's draft appears to have more high-end talent and more depth, so any pick in the top 6 next year is better than that pick.

We aren't in a position to take a gamble like that right now, unless you are certain that Tambo comes through will all these trades and free agency pick-ups, but I'm not confident that he will get enough down to significantly affect the team. I do think that he will fill some holes, i.e. a better depth centre than Frasar and some D depth, but nothing bridging the gap of the 18 wins we would need to be a bubble team that's for sure.

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Old
05-03-2011, 05:37 PM
  #114
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Just throwing this out for fun:

To Edm:
Burns
10th overall

To Min:
19th overall
31st overall
Gagner
Gilbert

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Old
05-03-2011, 06:23 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
Just throwing this out for fun:

To Edm:
Burns
10th overall

To Min:
19th overall
31st overall
Gagner
Gilbert
Done and done. Do you have the authority to make this trade? If so, it's a done deal.

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Old
05-03-2011, 07:16 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
Just throwing this out for fun:

To Edm:
Burns
10th overall

To Min:
19th overall
31st overall
Gagner
Gilbert
I hope you're not a Wild fan

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05-03-2011, 07:31 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
Just throwing this out for fun:

To Edm:
Burns
10th overall

To Min:
19th overall
31st overall
Gagner
Gilbert
Done deal! That gets us RNH, another solid centerman at 10 and a #2 dman. Oilers couldnt say yes fast enough

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Old
05-03-2011, 09:48 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
I hope you're not a Wild fan
I actually am and don't overvalue the 10th overall pick. I've read numerous scouts and other draft experts who have stated the top 8 picks are way above everyone else. They have also said there is little difference between the 20th and 60th prospect in this particular draft.

The Wild likely get prospects at 19 and 31 that would be comparable to the 10th pick.

In my mind the Wild get a potential 25-30 goal winger in Gagner and Gilbert can handle the top PP unit and is the same age as Burnsie.

Besides the Wild aren't going to commit big money to Burns because of his erratic streak and this way they get two players for him. I'm not sure there will be a better trade to be made for him this summer.


Last edited by North Metro Peewees: 05-03-2011 at 09:56 PM.
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Old
05-03-2011, 10:22 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
Who has the 9th overall? Columbus?

If I was trading with Columbus I'd be happy to move our first and something else not named Hall for the 9th and Johanssen.

Correct me if I'm wrong and Columbus doesn't have the 9th.
Columbus has the 8th overall.

The price for Johansen-to-Edmonton was set during that draft, and it remains the same: Jordan Eberle, straight up or better. If you still insist on a pick swap, you'd have to add.


Personally, if we stick to just 8th for 19th plus someone, I'd ask for Whitney if we can get him and Gilbert if we can't.

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05-03-2011, 10:27 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by MPStoEberletoHall View Post
I'm pretty convident that Tambo will grab a top 10 pick somehow.. He will want to get one of Larrson,Hamilton,Siemans,Murphy
this is what oiler fans thought last year

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Old
05-03-2011, 10:36 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by TheStig View Post
this is what oiler fans thought last year
True, but with picks at 19 and 31, this year and last year really aren't comparable. Much easier to do this year with the added pick.

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05-03-2011, 10:39 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
Columbus has the 8th overall.

The price for Johansen-to-Edmonton was set during that draft, and it remains the same: Jordan Eberle, straight up or better. If you still insist on a pick swap, you'd have to add.


Personally, if we stick to just 8th for 19th plus someone, I'd ask for Whitney if we can get him and Gilbert if we can't.
I think it's safe to say both Whitney and Johansen are non-starters at this point. Whitney has played like a bonafide top pairing guy since he came to Edmonton and is potentially our best player until Hall breaks out, so we can't really afford to deal him away, especially with our weak defensive depth.

As for Johansen, makes no sense for Columbus to deal him IMO, and we can't pay the price of Eberle to get him anyways.

I can't see Columbus doing Gilbert + 19th overall for 8th overall, but if you want to make that trade, I'm 100% into it.

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05-03-2011, 10:43 PM
  #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NM Squirts View Post
I actually am and don't overvalue the 10th overall pick. I've read numerous scouts and other draft experts who have stated the top 8 picks are way above everyone else. They have also said there is little difference between the 20th and 60th prospect in this particular draft.

The Wild likely get prospects at 19 and 31 that would be comparable to the 10th pick.

In my mind the Wild get a potential 25-30 goal winger in Gagner and Gilbert can handle the top PP unit and is the same age as Burnsie.

Besides the Wild aren't going to commit big money to Burns because of his erratic streak and this way they get two players for him. I'm not sure there will be a better trade to be made for him this summer.
Well, IMO 19 + 31 is pretty fair value for 10 if that were a separate deal. If you believe that picks 10-30 are all very close, then you may give the edge to having 2 picks, but I don't see it that way at all.

The rest of the deal breaks down as Gilbert + Gagner for Burns, which as an Oilers fan, I do that deal 11 times out of 10. I still have a lot of hope for Gagner, but we need defense plain and simple, and Burns is really coming on strong of late after his concussion issues.

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