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Regular Season v Play Off Stats

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:06 PM
  #1
Geico4yoMoney
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Regular Season v Play Off Stats

So I was curious, what is the history of this teams players in the play offs? For what it is worth, I made a spread sheet and computed, among other things, points per game in the regular season and playoffs for the career of each player. Then I computed the % change for each player. I found some interesting things, and I am not suprised.

Just keep in mind you have to consider the context of each players stats. I am not proposing this as some official rating system, but rather a tool to look at the relationship between the regular season and play offs for each player. I was not going to do defencemen as their primary objective is not scoring, however I included them as a large % change in scoring may reflect overall performance.

Also keep in mind that a -20% change for a 3rd/4th liner, is way worse than a top 6 guy having the same stat.

Grags +400% in the play offs. (Clearly skewed but damn he had a great series.)
Kaleta +112.5%
McCormick +54.86%
Meyers +2.62%
Connolly +1.41%
Gerbe +.9%
Ennis -2.39%
Hecht -6.04%
Neidermayer -8.87%
Montador -17.47%
Leopold -19.12%
Pomminville -20.22%
Grier -23.27%
Roy -25.33%
Vanek -32.5%
Butler -38.49%
Weber -42.14%
Stafford -43.39%
Gaustad -45.70%
Boyes -48.63%
Morrison -52.59%
Sekera -56.53%

Key thing, look at ROY, VANEK, BOYES, STAFFORD AND GAUSTAD!!!!

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:21 PM
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Clock
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Interesting. So just to be clear, this doesn't simply reflect this year, but each player's total NHL regular season and playoff stats?

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:42 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clock View Post
Interesting. So just to be clear, this doesn't simply reflect this year, but each player's total NHL regular season and playoff stats?
This is correct. It takes into account their entire career. This is my first hack at it. I want to find a way to perhaps make it more relevant, but you can simply see that the guys I mentioned do have huge drops, and the calculation is relevant because they have enough games played, but they aren't on the down swings of their career. It indicates to me that I might want to investigate as to why this is. An issue of character maybe?

Another thing I am going to do is pick a number of superstars to compare with. Maybe everyone drops a bit in the playoffs?

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04-27-2011, 02:46 PM
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Hard to get a realistic picture with such diverse sample sizes, but could lead to some interesting stats if tinkered with. You'd have to at least weight by number of games played.

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geico4yoMoney View Post
Another thing I am going to do is pick a number of superstars to compare with. Maybe everyone drops a bit in the playoffs?
Since you play better teams in the playoffs this is to be expected to up a certain level.

I have no idea how much that can and should be in average though.

The drop off for some of our guys seems pretty high.

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:50 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schadenfreude View Post
Hard to get a realistic picture with such diverse sample sizes, but could lead to some interesting stats if tinkered with. You'd have to at least weight by number of games played.
True, or perhaps there is a better way to look at this? Do we simply just want to look at total PPG during the playoffs during the past 3 play off series for a player?

Once we get a baseline we can even then factor in salary and figure out how much we are paying for each point.

Businesses do this every day to maximize value, I wonder if NHL hockey teams ever use it as a tool for evaluation.

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04-27-2011, 02:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geico4yoMoney View Post
True, or perhaps there is a better way to look at this? Do we simply just want to look at total PPG during the playoffs during the past 3 play off series for a player?

Once we get a baseline we can even then factor in salary and figure out how much we are paying for each point.

Businesses do this every day to maximize value, I wonder if NHL hockey teams ever use it as a tool for evaluation.
Probably calculate ppg for regular season and playoffs, then calculate the delta and drop anyone that has not yet played enough games to be considered a rookie.

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Old
04-27-2011, 02:58 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schadenfreude View Post
Probably calculate ppg for regular season and playoffs, then calculate the delta and drop anyone that has not yet played enough games to be considered a rookie.
How many seasons?

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Old
04-27-2011, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Geico4yoMoney View Post
How many seasons?
I'd do career.

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04-27-2011, 04:10 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Okay, here it is...

Name - Change in points per game from regular season to playoffs.

Above Average

Kaleta .22
McCormick .10
Myers .01
Connolly .01

Gerbe 0

Ennis -.02
Hecht -.03
Niedermayer -.04
Montador -.06
Leopold -.08
Morrisonn -.08

Average
Grier -.09

BELOW AVERAGE

Butler -.1
Weber -.16
Pominville -.16
Sekera -.16
Gaustad -.18
Roy -.21
Vanek -.27
Stafford -.27
Boyes -.34

Team Average: -.09


-------------------------------------------
Random NHL Players

Giroux .25
Briere .21
Keith .13
Toews .12
Kane .11
Pronger .11
Ovechkin .10
B Richards .06
M Richards .04
Drury -.03
Crosby -.07
Campbell -.08
Chara -.09
Kaberle -.22
Datsyuk -.26 (first ever playoffs really messed him up, he is at about a point per game since then)
Carter -.28
Thornton -.28

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Old
04-27-2011, 04:13 PM
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Kruschiki
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Boy, any way you cut it, Boyes really stunk up the joint.

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Old
04-27-2011, 04:20 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schadenfreude View Post
Boy, any way you cut it, Boyes really stunk up the joint.
He has virtually no play off experience. He spent his career in St.Louis. But yeah, get him off the team.

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04-27-2011, 04:21 PM
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Bad stat IMO, especially when you have a lot of scorers that tend to have underwhelming first forays into the playoffs, like Vanek and Stafford, and as you mentioned Datsyuk.

I think at the very least you need to include how many playoff games each player has played to give the numbers more meaning, or scrap using ppg and use a pp minute state instead to make things more even.

Perhaps I'll make a Vulgar Stats column out of something like this.

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Old
04-27-2011, 04:23 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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The worst part of this is that Roy, Vanek and Stafford are at the bottom. Look at Philly...

Vanek -.27
Roy -.21
Stafford -.27

Briere .21
Giroux .25
Richards .04

The guys they lean on do not fall apart in the play offs, they lead the team. We have no leaders on this team.

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Old
04-27-2011, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CriminallyVu1gar View Post
Bad stat IMO, especially when you have a lot of scorers that tend to have underwhelming first forays into the playoffs, like Vanek and Stafford, and as you mentioned Datsyuk.

I think at the very least you need to include how many playoff games each player has played to give the numbers more meaning, or scrap using ppg and use a pp minute state instead to make things more even.

Perhaps I'll make a Vulgar Stats column out of something like this.
Perhaps a more indepth analysis of the players stats is in order. I would probably remove Datsyuks first season as it is clearly an outlier. A stats program and a team of stats majors would be much better at this than me

Also, this stat isn't as much meant to help analyze a player like Grier or Kaleta as it is for people you pay for scoring. You don't pay Grier to get you goals, you pay him for his insight, smart play and hustle. Top line guys are paid for scoring though.


Last edited by Geico4yoMoney: 04-27-2011 at 04:30 PM.
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Old
04-27-2011, 04:32 PM
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you should just look at the last 2 regular season/playoffs

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04-27-2011, 04:55 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Good idea, this is probably the most useful time span to look at. I know for sure Vanek will look a lot better, he had 5 points this series.

Doing those now.

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04-27-2011, 05:41 PM
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Hecht (no data, only played 1 game in the last two series)

Team Average -.11

Above Average

Kaleta .19
McCormick .05
Niedermayer .04
Myers .01
Pominville -.01
Ennis -.02
Grier -.03
Vanek -.03
Gerbe -.04

Below Average

Morrisonn -.13
Gaustad -.13
Butler -.13
Weber -.15
Montador -.16
Sekera -.20
Leopold -.32

MORE THAN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE MEAN

Stafford -.35
Boyes -.45
Roy -.48
Connolly -.51

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Old
04-27-2011, 06:29 PM
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things like average ice time matters a lot too. How many early playoff series were there where vanek hardly played?

Also, looking at PP and PK time has an effect too. (although one would think that average pp/pk time per game should remain consistent from regular season to playoff time, we all know with the refs in this league thats not true)


Also when you face a team like Boston last year - its going to be expected that your average is going to go down, they play very well defensively and had a hot goaltender.

The sample size in the playoffs is way to small and not varied enough for a lot of players to truly compare

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Old
04-27-2011, 06:32 PM
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Stats don't tell me how completely Stafford has disappeared two playoffs. He didn't just miss chances, he was invisible most of the time. I want him moved so badly. He's got value after year he had. Please, move him now and get value based on his 30 goals.

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Old
04-27-2011, 07:04 PM
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Isn't scoring overall down during the playoffs?

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Old
04-27-2011, 08:26 PM
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Geico4yoMoney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dire wolf View Post
Isn't scoring overall down during the playoffs?
That doesnt matter, as everyone is subject to the decreased scoring so a negative doesnt mean the player is bad. When the your #1 guys are at the bottom, and way below other teams #1 players, you know you have issues.

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04-27-2011, 09:00 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geico4yoMoney View Post
That doesnt matter, as everyone is subject to the decreased scoring so a negative doesnt mean the player is bad. When the your #1 guys are at the bottom, and way below other teams #1 players, you know you have issues.
Like many of us have suspected for years - Darcy locked up a mediocre core, and let the real talent get away. We're overpaying for 2nd-tier talent, at least when it comes to the top six, and most of the recent acquisitions on D.

Certainly has his work cut out for him this summer.

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