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2011 NHL Entry Draft Talk - Part VIII - Adam Larsson's Revenge!

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05-03-2011, 11:31 AM
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Saugus
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2011 NHL Entry Draft Talk - Part VIII - Adam Larsson's Revenge!

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05-03-2011, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Devils731 View Post
I agreed it did, but does 6 months matter much? I know 9-12 months does, but I haven't seen anything done for as little as 6. I imagine we would say 3 is unlikely to matter much. So I'm not sure how heavily we should figure 6 months plays into it.

For example, we have last season from Courtier in the Q where he was actually younger than Huberdeau was this season. How would we want to weight that?
An age difference of 6 months in a draft year has been show to make as much as 20% difference in peak value.

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05-03-2011, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down View Post
You take the person who they think will be the better player. If you think that Huberdeau has the chance to be the better player long-term, you take him.
Well, that's what I'm saying. Projecting these guys is not easy.

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05-03-2011, 11:42 AM
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I'm shocked and saddened we have filled another one with over a month still left to go

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05-03-2011, 11:45 AM
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I'm hoping they release new rankings soon. I imagine there may be some surprises.

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05-03-2011, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by MasterofGrond View Post
An age difference of 6 months in a draft year has been show to make as much as 20% difference in peak value.
Do you have a link to that particular analysis or know if Google will bring it up. I'd be interested to see it. 20% sounds too significant. What would 12 months be, 50%?

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05-03-2011, 11:52 AM
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Huberdeau's playoffs have him in the top four easily. Couturier will have dropped.

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05-03-2011, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Devils731 View Post
Do you have a link to that particular analysis or know if Google will bring it up. I'd be interested to see it. 20% sounds too significant. What would 12 months be, 50%?
http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=785

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05-03-2011, 11:59 AM
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I'm thinking I'm going to have Huberdeau to Florida in my mock when I get to it

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05-03-2011, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zack Ryder View Post
Huberdeau's playoffs have him in the top four easily. Couturier will have dropped.
Agreed. Murphy may also rise because of his U18 performance.

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05-03-2011, 12:04 PM
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I probably have it as

RNH
Landeskog
Huberdeau
Larsson
Murphy
Couturier

As my top six.

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05-03-2011, 12:09 PM
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Huberdeau will be a better player then Couturier IMO. Hands like his with exceptional vision and a top notch scoring touch around the net will make this kid a future All-Star while Couturier can be a solid player but will fit the mold of a Zajac/Staal with a little more offense perhaps.

We already have a "Zajac type player" so going with a player that brings about the same intangibles as what you already have wouldn't be a smart move IMO and the same thing can be said if we had Giroux when talking about Huberdeau.

Give me a player that will fit like a glove next to Kovalchuk and that player is Huberdeau IMO since our other star already has his center.

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05-03-2011, 12:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterofGrond View Post
That's a very interesting article, and that's what I was referring to in the previous thread. The fact the Couturier is several months older and Huberdeau has the same stats favours Huberdeau.

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05-03-2011, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEVILS ALL THE WAY View Post
Huberdeau will be a better player then Couturier IMO. Hands like his with exceptional vision and a top notch scoring touch around the net will make this kid a future All-Star while Couturier can be a solid player but will fit the mold of a Zajac/Staal with a little more offense perhaps.

We already have a "Zajac type player" so going with a player that brings about the same intangibles as what you already have wouldn't be a smart move IMO and the same thing can be said if we had Giroux when talking about Huberdeau.

Give me a player that will fit like a glove next to Kovalchuk and that player is Huberdeau IMO since our other star already has his center.
Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.

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05-03-2011, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterofGrond View Post
Interesting, but he's using his work in progress to then define the birth effect? I'm not sure how much we can trust in that? The oddities in some months having more drastic affect than a month after it(excluding the cutoff for leagues month) makes me think he needs more data since I can't think of a reasonable explanation April to May barely matters but March to April makes a a big difference.

This is all semi-moot when discussing Courtier and Huberdeau since Courtier's 09-10 season is dominant if 6 months matters so much. I think that's one of the big problems when comparing Coutier's and Huberdeau's numbers come in, the consistency of Coutier's 2 seasons and the other big one is quality of teammates.

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05-03-2011, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.
I agree

If lou gets Couturier at 4, I won't be shocked at all. Seems like a lou pick.

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05-03-2011, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
That's a very interesting article, and that's what I was referring to in the previous thread. The fact the Couturier is several months older and Huberdeau has the same stats favours Huberdeau.
But then you add in quality of teammates and I think Courtier ended up on top, despite the age gap. So if we'll use his engine to tell us the age factor then we need to use his engine to tell us the teammate factor too. At least when we discuss using his analysis.

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05-03-2011, 12:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.
Theyve also had success with Huberdeau esque players (Gomez in his prime) who complimented the Zajacs of their day.

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05-03-2011, 12:28 PM
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I think the teammate factor is a little overblown. Huberdeau is presumably going to have good linemates at the NHL level too. We're talking about putting him with Kovalchuk, after all. It's good that he can perform when played with talent.

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05-03-2011, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Reynolds View Post
Theyve also had success with Huberdeau esque players (Gomez in his prime) who complimented the Zajacs of their day.
I'm not sure Gomez is the best comparison for Huberdeau, but there is something to the fact that Gomez was more of a purely offensive player.

Huberdeau is much more of a two-way centre. Out of our Cup winning centres, I think Nieuwendyk actually might be the best comparison for Huberdeau. And Couturier is Arnott with better defence.

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05-03-2011, 12:33 PM
  #21
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I think the teammate factor is a little overblown. Huberdeau is presumably going to have good linemates at the NHL level too. We're talking about putting him with Kovalchuk, after all. It's good that he can perform when played with talent.
Well if we discount one part of the model then his whole model would fall apart, I believe, since I would imagine it's all interlinked.

Obviously older guys will put up more points and a player playing with Wayne Gretzky will put up more points, this guy was trying to model both, and other things I'm sure, at the same time so there is a lot of static between just those two variables.

It's figuring out the how much each matters that is hard.

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05-03-2011, 12:33 PM
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Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.

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05-03-2011, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down View Post
Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.
Except for when Letang, which is french for.......the tang, is involved.

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05-03-2011, 12:35 PM
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Gomez's defensive ability is underrated. He was fine defensively, his ability to create is sorely missing in this lineup. Kovy, Elias, and Parise are the only players in our lineup (Tedenby soon enough) are the only people to create chances out of nothing. Look at the flyers (Giroux, Briere, Richards, Carter, Leino) We need more offensive creativity or otherwise we become to predictable an offense.

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05-03-2011, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down View Post
Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.
Still wish we had Cormier. Guy couldve been a beast on the 3rd or 4th line.

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