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I like our prospect list a lot!

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Old
07-14-2004, 02:23 AM
  #1
Chayos
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I like our prospect list a lot!

I look at our top 20 prospects and i really like what i see. I looked at the other lists liek Vacnouver and Ott and I am really happy with our list.

I think we should hold the 3rd best prospects spot. Wash looks like a lock for #1 though!

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07-14-2004, 02:32 AM
  #2
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when everyone looks at Vacnouver's or Colorado's prospect list everyone is happy

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07-14-2004, 10:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Gonz0
Agreed, although a star winger would be nice with Rita/Mihknov continually sliding down the charts in terms of rankings among our prospects. Centre depth is amazing compared to 2 years ago. Same goes for Goaltenders and defensemen. KLowe has turned this organization around in that respect. Now, lets just hope a few of them make the jump to the NHL soon.

Prospects i think will probaly see NHL icetime next season:

- Lynch
- Woywitka
- Salmelainen
- Bishai
- Rita

It would be great to see Shremp out there taking aim at the Calder next season, but i suspect his defense at this point of his development is just that, rather suspect.
Meh, put Schremp out with Smyth or Dvorak and they can cover for his defensive lapses until he gets it all together. How about this? (assuming no Nedved)

Smyth - Schremp - Dvorak
Torres - York - Hemsky

Yeah our top 20 (+) looks great compared to some other teams. I think we will likely stay at 3rd or maybe move up to 2nd. The Caps will be #1 even if Ovvy jumps to the NHL next year, they had a hell of a draft. The habs will drop a bit with Hossa and Hainsey starting to slip a bit and with a solid if unspectacular draft.

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07-14-2004, 10:35 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HemskyFreak83
when everyone looks at Vacnouver's or Colorado's prospect list everyone is happy
The difference with Vancouver and Colorado is they can fill holes with money rather than prospects. We need those prospects or we'd be screwed.

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07-14-2004, 10:40 AM
  #6
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Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects? If you look at your list there isn't a single bluechip in the bunch (sure fire to play prospect). There are some players with some upside (but have some serious downside as well) but not many of them look to be top line players at any position. That is not to say that they won't play, but be some what realistic. This is the same organization that has not had much success at the draft table in the past decade, so its really stretch to look at the prospect list and have an expectation of more than two or three players going on to play on a consistent basis and maybe one or two having any impact at all. Also I think its completely unreasonable to think that a player like Schrempf has even the remotest possibility of playing in the NHL next season. Give him a few years to grow and then bring him in. No use in pushing a young guy like the Oilers did with Hemsky, and risk screwing him up. Prospect development is the key to success with youngsters, and Schrempf still has plenty left to prove in junior.

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07-14-2004, 10:48 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects? There are some players with some upside (but have some serious downside as well) but not many of them look to be top line players at any position. That is not to say that they won't play, but be some what realistic. This is the same organization that has not had much success at the draft table in the past decade, so its really stretch to look at the prospect list and have an expectation of more than two or three players going on to play on a consistent basis and maybe one or two having any impact at all. Also I think its completely unreasonable to think that a player like Schrempf has even the remotest possibility of playing in the NHL next season. Give him a few years to grow and then bring him in. No use in pushing a young guy like the Oilers did with Hemsky, and risk screwing him up. Prospect development is the key to success with youngsters, and Schrempf still has plenty left to prove in junior.
I agree with just about everything you said above with the exception of the bolded line. This isn't the same organization. There's only 4 people sitting at the draft table now who were also there even 6 years ago let alone a decade. (K.P., McCarthy and the two Davis scouts). The current regime just completed its fourth draft.

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07-14-2004, 10:53 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects?
I don't think the Oilers have any bonafide superstars but I would say they have a great depth in their organization and a couple of "potential" stars as prospects. IMHO I would take the Oilers prospect depth over some others where they have one potential star player but run pretty thin after that one player.... Like the lisp when you write Schremp, is it something you do natually when you talk as well? BTW Kokopeli is Kokopelli with a double "l"

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07-14-2004, 10:56 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects? If you look at your list there isn't a single bluechip in the bunch (sure fire to play prospect). There are some players with some upside (but have some serious downside as well) but not many of them look to be top line players at any position. That is not to say that they won't play, but be some what realistic. This is the same organization that has not had much success at the draft table in the past decade, so its really stretch to look at the prospect list and have an expectation of more than two or three players going on to play on a consistent basis and maybe one or two having any impact at all. Also I think its completely unreasonable to think that a player like Schrempf has even the remotest possibility of playing in the NHL next season. Give him a few years to grow and then bring him in. No use in pushing a young guy like the Oilers did with Hemsky, and risk screwing him up. Prospect development is the key to success with youngsters, and Schrempf still has plenty left to prove in junior.
Nothing wrong with what you said, other than what Guy covered regarding the different regimes (Fraser vs. Prendergast).

One thing though...don't count out Schremp possibly playing NHL hockey this year, especially if Nedved leaves and Reasoner doesn't bounce back from his knee problems. Even KP has floated out the possibility of him having a chance.

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07-14-2004, 10:57 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects? If you look at your list there isn't a single bluechip in the bunch (sure fire to play prospect). There are some players with some upside (but have some serious downside as well) but not many of them look to be top line players at any position.
Make up your mind... is a blue chipper a guy who is a sure fire to play prospect? Because if that is the case, both Lynch and Wyowitka will be there. They are about as sure fire as there is.

Schremp, Pouliot and Niinimaki all have top line potential. So does Mikhnov.

Quote:
That is not to say that they won't play, but be some what realistic. This is the same organization that has not had much success at the draft table in the past decade, so its really stretch to look at the prospect list and have an expectation of more than two or three players going on to play on a consistent basis and maybe one or two having any impact at all.
Considering the current team of scouts weren't together a decade ago, it sort of blows that theory to crap. Names like Markkanen, Stoll, Hemsky, Bergeron, Brewer, Conklin were all brought in based on this scouting group (either through the draft, free agency, or traded for when they were young). That's 6 players right there that are NHL players right now.

That doesn't include guys like Lynch and Wyowika who will be there soon. So your lumping them in with the Sather regime who had a terrible time drafting is very flawed.

Quote:
Also I think its completely unreasonable to think that a player like Schrempf has even the remotest possibility of playing in the NHL next season. Give him a few years to grow and then bring him in. No use in pushing a young guy like the Oilers did with Hemsky, and risk screwing him up. Prospect development is the key to success with youngsters, and Schrempf still has plenty left to prove in junior.
I wouldn't rush Schrempf either... considering the guy is a former basketball player for the sonics...

Guys like Burns, Patrice Bergeron, etc... were able to make a successful jump to the NHL. It depends on what is best for both sides. Hemsky was very complacent in the Q, and it wasn't going to help his development to have him coast through another season so he was brought up. Schremp may be physically ready, but you need to have an open mind about it.

BTW... the comment about Schremp maybe being able to play in the NHL right now was made well before the Oilers drafted him...

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07-14-2004, 11:06 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects? If you look at your list there isn't a single bluechip in the bunch (sure fire to play prospect). There are some players with some upside (but have some serious downside as well) but not many of them look to be top line players at any position. That is not to say that they won't play, but be some what realistic. This is the same organization that has not had much success at the draft table in the past decade, so its really stretch to look at the prospect list and have an expectation of more than two or three players going on to play on a consistent basis and maybe one or two having any impact at all. Also I think its completely unreasonable to think that a player like Schrempf has even the remotest possibility of playing in the NHL next season. Give him a few years to grow and then bring him in. No use in pushing a young guy like the Oilers did with Hemsky, and risk screwing him up. Prospect development is the key to success with youngsters, and Schrempf still has plenty left to prove in junior.
Well, if we shouldn't be excited/happy about our prospects then about 90% of the league should be absolutely $hitting their pants about their future because they're done for. The Capitals are on a whole other level from EVERYBODY else prospect wise - but as far as the rest of the league the Oilers have by far the best depth. We by far have more guys with very real shots at the NHL then anybody else. On top of that we have perhaps the best goalie duo now with JDD and DD.

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07-14-2004, 11:22 AM
  #12
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I don't know why it should be taboo to get excited about the youth in the organization. Sure it may be valid to point out that there likely isn't a bonafide star coming up through the system but really, who cares.

Teams like New Jersey and Detroit has cultivated great talent, yes even star talent, outside the top 10 picks in the draft and even outside the first round. Too me that simply hammers home the point that the draft is as much a crap shoot as anything.

Edmonton seems to have bonifide NHL potential in the system. They have it beyond the first 3 or 4 prospects and they have it spread out over all positions. When keeping it in perpsective (key word), what's there that we shouldn't be excited about. At the end of the day it means that our chances at seeing some talent emerge and the opportunity for the team to build from within just increases.

Same with the pooh poohing of Robbie Schremp by many outside of the Edmonton fan base. Perhaps he never pans out, perhaps he is a problem child however in the context of the draft that we just witnessed, where there was apparently very little gauranteed talent outside of the top 4 or 5, Edmonton aquired a player, again if he pans out, that can have more impact than almost any other player from his class. Again where is the problem? If it's consider a longer shot (in comparison to previous years) for any player from that draft class to make the NHL doesn't it bode well that the Oilers long shot has the most potential?

Ok, done my rant....carry on

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07-14-2004, 11:27 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26
On top of that we have perhaps the best goalie duo now with JDD and DD.
In reality you have nothing until these players get out of junior and are signed to a professional contract. The draft and being drafted does not mean you are going to be a player. Only by performing after you are drafted does it mean anything, and only then once you prove that you can play at a professional level. There is a huge leap from junior hockey to even the ECHL. I would say reserve your enthusiasm until you see what your players can do at even the most basic of the professional levels, especially goaltenders. Nothing wrong with being excited about the potential of your youngsters, but to be pencilling them into the lineup without them even playing a single professional game is not smart. Look at all the hype surrounding Woywitka, and look at how he has struggled to find his game. He has been surpassed by the much less heralded Lynch according to you folks. Just shows how quickly a player can see the shine go off his mellon so to speak.

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07-14-2004, 11:31 AM
  #14
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Long story short...what's the harm in being excited about your favourite team's prospects? It's not like lives are on the line here.

If people think I'm going to spend my summer lamenting left and right, go right ahead. Life's too short, and a fresh season beckons. AHL or NHL or CHL, no difference to me.

At least now I can watch junior hockey on sportsnet with a better than astronomical chance of being interested at seeing an Oiler prospect that doesn't play for Rimouski.

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07-14-2004, 11:34 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Look at all the hype surrounding Woywitka, and look at how he has struggled to find his game. He has been surpassed by the much less heralded Lynch according to you folks. Just shows how quickly a player can see the shine go off his mellon so to speak.
How do you figure?

Yes Woywitka was/is hyped but much of that comes from the fact he was a trade aquisition in the Oilers most contentious issue of the year.

Aside from that, it's been reported that he had a period of adjustment after the deal, and then he found his game nicely.

I think this is more of a case where the Oilers are getting more out of Lynch than they expected then it is Woywitka not doing what he was expected to do.

I would be comfortable in wagering that both players will be NHLers. Wether you consider it smart or not.

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07-14-2004, 11:41 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
In reality you have nothing until these players get out of junior and are signed to a professional contract. The draft and being drafted does not mean you are going to be a player. Only by performing after you are drafted does it mean anything, and only then once you prove that you can play at a professional level. There is a huge leap from junior hockey to even the ECHL. I would say reserve your enthusiasm until you see what your players can do at even the most basic of the professional levels, especially goaltenders. Nothing wrong with being excited about the potential of your youngsters, but to be pencilling them into the lineup without them even playing a single professional game is not smart.
It's a website and message board about the future of hockey... hence the reason people hypothetically talk about these kids and their future in the organization... We are not the ones in charge of the team, so it's rather irrelevant whether or not we pencil them into the lineup or not. Going by your theory, we also shouldn't talk about potential trades, or any what ifs, because like you said, we haven't seen anything yet. There is a difference between us hypothesising, and the Oilers going out and actually doing it. There is also a difference between us dreaming and chatting about Schremp being in the opening day lineup and us throw a fit and run for the nearest high ledge if it doesn't happen this year.

All this is is excitment... nothing more. No one is expecting Schremp to make it this season, but it's fun to think about. No one is expecting all of our top picks from recent years to all have successful NHL allstar careers, but it's fun to think about it. What would these boards be like if no one talked about the what if's?

Quote:
Look at all the hype surrounding Woywitka, and look at how he has struggled to find his game. He has been surpassed by the much less heralded Lynch according to you folks. Just shows how quickly a player can see the shine go off his mellon so to speak.
I'm gathering you didn't watch Wyowitka at all this year. From the moment he started in Toronto, he didn't "struggle to find his game" anymore than any other young player does when they make the jump. In fact, he was rather steady as the season wore on and found his game quite nicely and contributed alot going +4 and picking up 16 points in his last 30 games.

Lynch may have been less heralded, and he is certainly ahead of Wyowitka in my eyes... but that has more to do with how incredibly well Lynch played, rather than anything Wyowitka did wrong. That's an important thing to remember. Not everyone will live up to their junior hype, but other guys will, and others will exceed it.

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07-14-2004, 11:47 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Don't you guys think you're over doing it a bit on your prospects?
Its a concern. For argument's sake, a raving lunatic might want to put forth the following suggestions:
  1. The best sign for an organization is if they have no prospects to speak of on the farm, certainly no forwards over the age of 20, no defensemen over the age of 21, and no goalies over the age of, say, 25.
  2. The surest sign of trouble for an organization is if they have known weaknesses on the big team yet their farm system is "stocked" and rated highly in HF.

Why? Because if the prospects were any good they'd be playing right now. Hemsky isn't listed as a prospect even though he's 6 days older than Niinimaki and a year younger than Mikhnov. How long will Washington lead the list if Ovechkin is playing 1st line minutes next year or the year after? When Zherdev is graduated Columbus will plummet and yet they'll have put Nash and Zherdev in the bigs in consecutive seasons.

So according to the HF ranking system, teams like Columbus and Atlanta will quickly drop yet they're producing top-line talents. Meanwhile teams like the Oilers continue to accumulate 1st round draft pick prospects and rise towards the top of the HF ranking system while graduating future allstars like Chimera, Pisani, and Bishai. Whoops, and now Rita.

Hey, that's a lunatic and not-totally-fair assessment, but doesn't it give one cause for thinking again about it?

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07-14-2004, 12:24 PM
  #18
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ive thought about this LOTS..... i truly think that the HF rankings (while very nice to read and quite informed) are inherently wrong..... by taking a player off the list once they have played a certain amount of NHL games you are basically punishing the teams that draft players who impact the big-club quickly (such as hemsky, nash, heatly or kovolchuk).... is ales hemsky not still a prospect? hell i would almost argue that BREWER is still a prospect, lol (but now im getting off point)

i think a much better system would be to use an age limit (say 23 or so) or a much higher NHL games played limit (such as 240 or so, or 3 NHL seasons).... we all know that just because you have played 40-50 NHL games this does not mean that you are not still a prospect..... if such a cutoff point was used i think you would get a much better picture of which teams have the best young talent in the NHL

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07-14-2004, 12:43 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
In reality you have nothing until these players get out of junior and are signed to a professional contract. The draft and being drafted does not mean you are going to be a player. Only by performing after you are drafted does it mean anything, and only then once you prove that you can play at a professional level. There is a huge leap from junior hockey to even the ECHL. I would say reserve your enthusiasm until you see what your players can do at even the most basic of the professional levels, especially goaltenders. Nothing wrong with being excited about the potential of your youngsters, but to be pencilling them into the lineup without them even playing a single professional game is not smart. Look at all the hype surrounding Woywitka, and look at how he has struggled to find his game. He has been surpassed by the much less heralded Lynch according to you folks. Just shows how quickly a player can see the shine go off his mellon so to speak.
If you are inable to realize I'm talking VS other prospects in terms of goalies then I worry for you. I obviously don't think JDD and DD are currently better then all possible tandems in the NHL. And going by your logic that "you have nothing until these players get out of junior and are signed to a professional contract" that means that the Capitals have nothing in Ovechkin, and the Pens have nothing in Malkin and the list can go on and on. Nobody here is pencilling anybody in to anything and everybody agrees that it is extremely unlikely that even 1/3 of these prospects will pan out - but that's the beauty of it... we have enough depth that even if 1/3 don't well still have ALOT of guys coming through. Everything we are talking about here is in relation to other teams and their prospects.

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07-14-2004, 12:45 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by oilswell
Meanwhile teams like the Oilers continue to accumulate 1st round draft pick prospects and rise towards the top of the HF ranking system while graduating future allstars like Chimera, Pisani, and Bishai. Whoops, and now Rita.
Well, that is sort of my point. A lot of the same things being said about Schrempf were being said about guys like Rita, Henrich, Chimera, and the list goes on. When does a little bit of healthy skepticism come into play? How about a little common sense? What was it that President Bush said? "Fool me once... uh... shame on you. Fool me twice... uh... uh... don't fool me again!"


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07-14-2004, 12:50 PM
  #21
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Schrempf was a basketball player for the Seattle Supersonics.

Schremp is an Edmonton Oilers draft pick...

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07-14-2004, 01:01 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Well, that is sort of my point. A lot of the same things being said about Schrempf were being said about guys like Rita, Henrich, Chimera, and the list goes on. When does a little bit of healthy skepticism come into play? How about a little common sense? What was it that President Bush said? "Fool me once... uh... shame on you. Fool me twice... uh... uh... don't fool me again!"

But I think the point of organizational depth is that you can maintain sceptical about individual players, but still be enthusiastic about the teams prospects. Sure Woyawitka, or Lynch, or Green, or Tseliuk may bust, but I think that the chances of all four busting are small. At almost every position we have two or three guys that I think could crack the lineup. I also see a number of players that could be impact players... of course they won't all make it, maybe the majority won't, but the point is that with this depth, some will.

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07-14-2004, 01:02 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kokopeli
Well, that is sort of my point. A lot of the same things being said about Schrempf were being said about guys like Rita, Henrich, Chimera, and the list goes on.
What? I'm sorry, but I don't remember Henrich ever getting the same hype as Schremp has. Neither did Chimera (although Chimera put up 14 goals in the NHL his rookie year). Rita maybe, but not even he was this highly reguarded.

Schremp is a unique talent. He's either going to be a star in the NHL, or he isn't going to do a thing in the NHL. There is no middle ground for him, based on the way he plays. We've all acknowledged at one point or another that this is the risk of Schremp. We all know the downside to the pick, and we all know the risk of this pick (heck, I was the one adamantly against drafting him at #14 when we were doing the mock drafts here). That being said, after acknowledging that he is a risk, you also talk about the upside... which there is a tonne of in Schremp's case.

But don't try and preach that Oiler fans thought that Chimera was going to be a first line winger when he was drafted, or Henrich was ever beleived to be able to leave the OHL early for the NHL... that simply isn't the case, and you are making yourself look foolish by trying to say that.

Jani Rita certainly was highly touted, but a lot of that had to do with his ability to over power everyone he played against who was his age. That hasn't translated as well as hoped so far, but he still does do it quite often (and I'm pretty much the biggest Rita critic you will find). The fact of the matter is, Rita was projected as a 2nd line player/3rd line player, and that projection is still rather likely.

Quote:
When does a little bit of healthy skepticism come into play? How about a little common sense? What was it that President Bush said? "Fool me once... uh... shame on you. Fool me twice... uh... uh... don't fool me again!"

What exactly is healthy skepticism? We've all acknowledged that there are weaknesses. Schremp has a history of a bad attitude, Pouliot has had injury troubles, Niinimaki lost a year of development and is a beanpole, JDD still has the occasional stinker...

We are well aware of these weaknesses, and they have all been addressed. We don't have high expectations, but we do have high hopes, and there is a huge difference. We don't expect Schremp, Pouliot and Niinimaki to be 1st line centres in the NHL. We also don't expect all of them to make it. We do have hope and optimism based on what they have accomplished and how they continue to develop.

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07-14-2004, 01:10 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
What would these boards be like if no one talked about the what if's?
The Calgary Frames forum here at HF

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07-14-2004, 01:26 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thome_26
... that means that the Capitals have nothing in Ovechkin, and the Pens have nothing in Malkin and the list can go on and on.
That is indeed correct. Both of these teams have drafted players with outstanding potential, but they are not even under contract at this point, so why get all excited about them? They are nothing but a huge question mark, even with their talent. See if some of these "can't miss prospects" ring a bell for you? Pavel Brendl, Tim Connolly, Brian Finley, Kris Beech, Jamie Lundmark, Denis Shvidki, Jani Rita, Scott Kelman, Konstatin Koltsov, Kirill Safronov and Barrett Heisten? All of them top 20 draft picks in ONE DRAFT and all of them have essentially seen their careers go in the wrong direction or fade into oblivion before they even had a chance to step on an NHL sheet of ice (this draft class was selected because a player drafted this year should step in after 3-5 years and begin to contribute, which equates to the 1999 draft class). The draft is a crapshoot. All you have is a lottery ticket. That goes double for goaltenders who are longshots in any round. Just look at the goaltenders in the NHL and check out their draft position. Not many first rounders in there. Going back almost a decade here are the goaltenders selected in the opening round up until 2001. Jamie Storr (#7), Eric Fichaud (#16), Evgeni Ryabchikov (#21), Dan Cloutier (#26), JS Giguere (#13), Martin Biron (#16), Brian Boucher (#22), Marc Denis (#25), Craig Hillier (#23), Roberto Luongo (#4), JF Damphousse (#24), Patrick Desrochers (#14), Mathieu Chouinard (#15), Brian Finley (#6), Maxime Oulett (#22), Ari Ahonen (#27), Rick DiPietro (#1), Brent Krahn (#9), Pascal Leclaire (#8), Dan Blackburn (#10), Jason Bacashihuia (#26), and Adam Munro (#29). Of those, how many goaltenders actually lived up to their billing? How many of them were complete washouts? How many of them even ended up being starters (5ish)? Goaltenders are a crapshoot just as badly as other positional players are. You don't know what you have until he arrives, one way or the other.

Lanny MacDonald* is offline  
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