So this hasn't been touched in awhile. Anyone want to take a stab at predicting all of our re-signings? Would like to see where we will be standing just by re-signing everyone.
So this hasn't been touched in awhile. Anyone want to take a stab at predicting all of our re-signings? Would like to see where we will be standing just by re-signing everyone.
Probably went a bit high on everyone but here's my attempt at it...
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.000m) / Steve Downie ($3.000m)
Mark Olver ($0.900m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / Peter Mueller ($2.250m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.500m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($3.250m)
/ Jay McClement ($2.500m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
DEFENSEMEN
Shane O'Brien ($1.750m) / Erik Johnson ($4.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($1.500m) / Stefan Elliott ($0.900m)
Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $52,008,333; BONUSES: $2,920,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,291,667
I'll do the same players as Avs_19 but add McLeod and Hunwick, just in case. Assuming Barrie is in the minors, Hejduk retires, and we let Porter walk. Went a little higher on EJ and a couple of others, a bit less on Mueller and Jones.
21 man roster. Add a F and a D.
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CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.500m) / Steve Downie ($2.500m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.300m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($2.750m)
Mark Olver ($1.050m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / Peter Mueller ($2.250m)
Cody McLeod ($1.100m) / Jay McClement ($2.500m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
DEFENSEMEN
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) / Erik Johnson ($5.000m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($1.900m) / Stefan Elliott ($0.900m)
Matt Hunwick ($1.500m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,308,000; BONUSES: $2,920,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $9,992,000
I'll do the same players as Avs_19 but add McLeod and Hunwick, just in case. Assuming Barrie is in the minors, Hejduk retires, and we let Porter walk. Went a little higher on EJ and a couple of others, a bit less on Mueller and Jones.
I can try, assuming the new CBA doesn't change things up much.
Duchene 3y4m
O'Reilly 3y3m
Mcclement 3y2m
Hejduk 1y3m
Jones 2y2.5m
Mueller 1y1.75m
Downie 2y2.5m
Porter not tendered
Mcginn 2y1.4m
McLeod let go
EJ 4y4.5m
SOB 2y2.5m
Hunwick 1y1.55m
Wilson let go (arbitration)
And we try to add a winger in UFA while Gaunce fills Wilsons spot on the left side. More budget hockey. We should probably hope Hejduk retires and we sign a decent UFA instead.
Maybe I'm a little off on some of the contracts.... but still have around $11 million is cap space
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.200m) / Steve Downie ($2.250m)
Peter Mueller ($2.850m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($2.800m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.250m) / Matt Duchene ($5.000m) / Mark Olver ($1.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / Jay McClement ($2.500m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
DEFENSEMEN
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) / Erik Johnson ($5.000m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($2.000m) / Stefan Elliott ($0.900m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,458,333; BONUSES: $2,710,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $10,841,667
Next year's roster will look pretty much the same as it stands now. Only players to leave will be Hejduk (retire), McLeod and Hunwick (both UFA). They will be replaced by calling up Patrick Bordeleau, another forward (preferabaly sign Grabovski, but will probably just be Malone making the team) and a UFA defenseman (would be nice if it were Suter, but most likely Matt Carle).
The thing that concerns me with the Avs supposedly planning of waiting till the new CBA before spending money is: Free agency begins July 1st, and the current CBA expires Sept. 15. Unless a new CBA is agreed upon before July 1st (haven't even started really talking), there is no way on knowing what the upper cap limit will be prior to July 1st, and thus each team will have their own in-house salary cap based on what their owners believe will be the new salary cap.
thedoctor; we surely won't sign O'Reilly at 3y x 3m per...
I think people put too much weight on this last year's performance. Comparables are hard to find, but Perron is close. put up some good numbers as a low 1st pick, barely over 2m a year for that 2nd contract.
Right or wrong, it seems like draft position gets paid more in this 2nd deal. Toss in the low scoring his first 2 years, I could even see him get less than 3m a year.
I think people put too much weight on this last year's performance. Comparables are hard to find, but Perron is close. put up some good numbers as a low 1st pick, barely over 2m a year for that 2nd contract.
Right or wrong, it seems like draft position gets paid more in this 2nd deal. Toss in the low scoring his first 2 years, I could even see him get less than 3m a year.
Curious what the argument you think a competent agent is going to put out there that's so convincing. The only one I see is his performance this year, something easily countered with his performance over the entire ELC and wanting to see him perform at this level slightly longer before committing.
Where's the comparables for O'Reilly getting paid 4m+ as a 20-40 pick in his 2nd contract with ~.5PPG? the only one I found in a cursory search was Perron, who had about .5 PPG (and a higher GPG over his ELC), and he only made ~2m on a 2 year contract.
Curious what the argument you think a competent agent is going to put out there that's so convincing. The only one I see is his performance this year, something easily countered with his performance over the entire ELC and wanting to see him perform at this level slightly longer before committing.
Where's the comparables for O'Reilly getting paid 4m+ as a 20-40 pick in his 2nd contract with ~.5PPG? the only one I found in a cursory search was Perron, who had about .5 PPG (and a higher GPG over his ELC), and he only made ~2m on a 2 year contract.
O'Reilly is worth 4 million per season if not more...... and where he picked doesn't matter any more (3 NHL seasons matter now) and his game is a lot more then points (as an Avs fan you should know that).
O'Reilly is worth 4 million per season if not more...... and where he picked doesn't matter any more (3 NHL seasons matter now) and his game is a lot more then points (as an Avs fan you should know that).
No way he sign for 3 million per
Absolutely his game is more than points, but that's already included in a big raise over the nearest comparable. Not to mention Perron doesn't exactly lack for intangibles either.
I'm looking for more comparables, I think you're right that draft position matters less. But there's a ton of guys recently drafted with the same level of production statistically -- Gagner, Voracek, Perron, and all landed in the low 2m for the 2nd contract. O'Reilly does give some more defensively, but he's also getting a big raise over those guys at 3m.
Time will tell. But 4m seems like massive overpayment considering the body of comparables. 3 years might be a little long too, maybe it's more like 2y2.75m. Again, everyone claiming O'Reilly will make 4m+, show me some market comparables.
I don't think there's any theoretical limit. It could abolish the cap, go to a pure luxury tax, whatever. The only limiting factor is how old contracts are handled.
So this hasn't been touched in awhile. Anyone want to take a stab at predicting all of our re-signings? Would like to see where we will be standing just by re-signing everyone.
I don't really update it much once the season gets going. There's just too many variables that make it inaccurate.
The pro-rated cap hits of all the callups for the games they played. Pro-rated cap hits for players traded away, and traded for. LTIR(if they were anywhere close to the cap ceiling). Certain bonuses, though this only comes into affect once it's impossible to reach a certain bonus. Like if Lando had a bonus that required him to play 60 games, and missed 23+ games, then his cap hit would be reduced by that amount.
It's much closer to being accurate before the seasons starts, to see how close they are to cap floor or ceiling, since they must comply by the start of the season. Or early on the season to use as a reference point for possible trades, and a place to discuss team building from a cap perspective.
I'll make next years, once the Avs season is over. Definitely worth discussing here though, to throw out hypothetical rosters with their cap implications.
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $21,458,333; BONUSES: $2,860,000
CAP SPACE (8-man roster): $42,841,667 .. <-- Florida circa 2012?
_______________________________________
After re-signing RFAs, some UFAs (Jones, McClement, Hunwick.. Hejduk, McLeod, O'Brien let go), and promoting DVG
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.500m) Jamie McGinn ($1.500m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($3.500m) Mark Olver ($1.000m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / Peter Mueller ($2.500m) David Van Der Gulik ($0.600m) / Jay McClement ($2.000m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m) Kevin Porter ($1.000m) /
Ryan Wilson ($1.800m) / Erik Johnson ($4.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Matt Hunwick ($1.500m) / Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $52,358,333; BONUSES: $2,860,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $11,941,66
_____________________________________
What I wish the Avs would look like next season
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.500m) Zach Parise ($6.600m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($3.500m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.500m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / Peter Mueller ($2.500m)
Mark Olver ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($2.000m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
David Van Der Gulik ($0.600m) / Kevin Porter ($1.000m) /
Ryan Suter ($6.500m) / Erik Johnson ($4.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($1.800m) / Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
Matt Hunwick ($1.500m) /
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,458,333; BONUSES: $2,860,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$1,158,333 .. Salary cap going up, exclude bonuses to fit
______________________________________
What the Avs will look like next year
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.500m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.500m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($3.500m)
Peter Mueller ($2.500m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / P-A Parenteau ($2.500m)
Mark Olver ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($2.000m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
David Van Der Gulik ($0.600m) / Kevin Porter ($1.000m) /
Matt Carle ($4.500m) / Erik Johnson ($4.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($1.800m) / Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
Matt Hunwick ($1.500m) /
I wouldn't mind P.A. Parenteau at all. .875 PPG basically. Not bad at all. Parise is a longshot anyway. I think maybe a compromise with having Suter and Parenteau could work out.
Chances are I won't be able to update next years cap thread as timely as I have the last few years. If someone else would like to take it over, feel free to copy and paste the code from the quote on the original post, and just edit it with the new names and numbers. Or go with a different format if you like.
Just don't have the time for this one this time, sorry guys.
So this hasn't been touched in awhile. Anyone want to take a stab at predicting all of our re-signings? Would like to see where we will be standing just by re-signing everyone.
Using only our guys. Plenty of room for a FA or two with guys being passed back to LEM:
FORWARDS
Jamie McGinn ($2.250m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / David Jones ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($4.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.250m)
Mark Olver ($0.900m) / Matt Duchene ($4.500m) / Peter Mueller ($2.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Milan Hejduk ($2.000m)
Brad Malone ($0.875m) / Chuck Kobasew ($1.250m)
DEFENSEMEN
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($1.800m)
Ryan Wilson ($1.750m) / Erik Johnson ($4.500m)
Matt Hunwick ($1.600m) / Stefan Elliott ($0.900m)
Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($2.833m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.250m)
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CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $55,633,333; BONUSES: $3,007,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $14,666,667
