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The Big 4 and 2013/2014

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05-06-2011, 11:13 AM
  #1
FeedingFrenzy
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The Big 4 and 2013/2014

With Heater,JT,MArleau, and Boyle all coming off the books, 27 million$, what are the odds that these guys would take substanial paycuts to stay and play? Are there compareables for "star" players on the backside/downside of their careers?
Boyle will be 38, Patty/JT 35 and Heater 34. I dont want Heater back, JT/Patty 4 mil max? and Boyle with his age may be expendable with our young core of Dmen.

Side note: Will DW ink Juicy to a 2 yr deal after his EL contract so when the 27mil is freed up then sign him to a big contract? The new Big 4 will be needing raises

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05-06-2011, 11:19 AM
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McLovin25
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Ive gotta think even after 3 years, Jumbo will still be a top centreman in the league. Just the way he plays. On ice vision and awareness do not decrease with age, at that age, id still expect 50-65 points minimum so id give him 5-5.5m/2 years after this contract.

Patty is the exact opposite. Pattys game is speed, and that Does decrease with age, once he loses a step, hes only half as effiecent. Id give him 4m/1 year.

Heatley i would like to see come back since he wont be as old as the other two. Id give him also 5.5/2 years

boyle will be very old, i see him staying as a mentor for Braun/Demers/other PMD
2m/1 year,


Id give Cotuure 6m/6 years at that point.

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05-06-2011, 11:34 AM
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Led Zappa
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Isn't this summer time fodder? Bump this thread after the seasons over and I might care. Probably not, since it's so far out to judge for players that have either NTC's or NMC's

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Old
05-06-2011, 11:34 AM
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Franchise13
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Waaaay too far ahead to make projections.

I'm sure the organization has plans and contingencies in place, but there's probably 5-6 directions it could go in.

Injuries, successes or lack thereof (players and organization), acquisitions, losses etc... too many variables.

But just for fun... Since no one will get this outside of lucky guesses anyway,

JT will be a Shark for the rest of his career, whether it ends at this contract or not, he stays. He's shown the willingness to take a discount on bigger contract years already, no reason why it shouldn't continue. His ability to reinvent himself defensively this season, shows he can probably do it again and adjust his game at a later age.

Marleau would look weird in any other uni, however, his style of play will have to be adjusted once his elite speed wears. I could see him (wouldn't want to though) bouncing around a bit. Fair or not, SJ doesn't consider him in the JT territory despite Marleau being homegrown. Family ties (mainly the Mrs.) may get him to take major discounts though.

Boyle will probably be moved or retired by then. I could see him taking less to mentor, but I don't see it being for less than a Top 4 with appropriate minutes. He'll want to play, not sure SJ will have a spot. His baby girl will be just entering school age in 2014, so if they were to pick a time to move, it'd be here before there's even more family ties.

Heatley's style of game (net/slot presence;doesn't really deteriorate) and youth (compared to others) will probably get him another contract in the 5-6M range. His conditioning can improve a lot, so depending how it goes, he might actually get better as time goes along. He loves the low key situation here in SJ, far cry from the situations he's been in before. Outside of a resurgence to PizzaLine™ Dany, which won't happen under TMac's system, he's not going to make 7.5 again.

Let's not crown Couture as a 6@6/ea player yet. I love the guy, he's great to watch. It's still only been a season and a half, he still has very much to prove.

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05-06-2011, 11:58 AM
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Check the ages on the contracts. If the player is past 35, watch out. The Sharks will be circumspect.

In terms of production and age, look at comparable players and how they aged. By comparable, I mean style of game and not necessarily skill level.

Marleau: Modano, St. Louis

Heatley: Hull

JT: Sundin

Boyle: Schneider

Injury history will play into it and right now the only one that is giving me pause is Boyle. It tends to get worse with age.

They are all past the tip point from their peaks. It is a question of how fast they go down and how much of their summers they spend on really conditioning hard. JR didn't really get serious on that issue until he was past 30.

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05-06-2011, 12:00 PM
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Wait, let men get this straight. That Sharks are on the verge of going to WCF for the 2nd straight year, they are about to humiliate the hated Dead Things again, and this guy make a thread asking, not what's gonna happen this offseason

not what's gonna happen next offseason...

not the one after that...

But the offseason after the one after next year?


Do I have this right?

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05-06-2011, 12:06 PM
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For $2mm a year Boyle would look great on the blue line, in a wheel chair.

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05-06-2011, 12:15 PM
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Franchise13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artful_Dodger View Post
For $2mm a year Boyle would look great on the blue line, in a wheel chair.
He might be taller sitting in a wheel chair.

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05-06-2011, 12:20 PM
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FeedingFrenzy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WedgeAntilles View Post
Wait, let men get this straight. That Sharks are on the verge of going to WCF for the 2nd straight year, they are about to humiliate the hated Dead Things again, and this guy make a thread asking, not what's gonna happen this offseason

not what's gonna happen next offseason...

not the one after that...

But the offseason after the one after next year?


Do I have this right?
Well this is the Sharks discussion board, and I wanted to discuss Sharks hockey. There is a playoff forum to discuss playoff hockey. Dont see why you or LZ are about me wanting to discuss the future of this club. What happens with those guys will seriously affect what we can pay the next generation of players. Clowe,Pavs,Seto,Juicy,Demers, etc. Nothing wrong with starting a thread. Dont like it then dont comment, pretty simple imo.

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05-06-2011, 12:31 PM
  #10
SJeasy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Franchise13 View Post
Heatley's style of game (net/slot presence;doesn't really deteriorate) and youth (compared to others) will probably get him another contract in the 5-6M range. His conditioning can improve a lot, so depending how it goes, he might actually get better as time goes along. He loves the low key situation here in SJ, far cry from the situations he's been in before. Outside of a resurgence to PizzaLine™ Dany, which won't happen under TMac's system, he's not going to make 7.5 again.
There was a piece by Bourne on the evolution of the NHL game and defense. From what I am seeing, those slot one-timers are going away. AO isn't doing it anymore. Stamkos was the last and died in the second half. The collapsing defenses are getting more adept at taking away that play. IMO, that will greatly reduce Heatley's value to the team. The accent is on being able to move the puck around the zone and use quick passes around the net. Heatley does have some value in this regard but it is not nearly as great as that for which he got his last contract (think Clowe level).

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Old
05-06-2011, 12:42 PM
  #11
Franchise13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
There was a piece by Bourne on the evolution of the NHL game and defense. From what I am seeing, those slot one-timers are going away. AO isn't doing it anymore. Stamkos was the last and died in the second half. The collapsing defenses are getting more adept at taking away that play. IMO, that will greatly reduce Heatley's value to the team. The accent is on being able to move the puck around the zone and use quick passes around the net. Heatley does have some value in this regard but it is not nearly as great as that for which he got his last contract (think Clowe level).
Clowe's improved some in front of the net this season, but he still loves his Half Boards. Heatley's net presence is much better than Clowe's (as of now.) Clowe's mid 3's contract is probably a bit low if Heatley retains his elite level hands/shot. Two attributes that are generally higher paid.

In terms of salary projections if 2014 Dany Heatley is worth slightly above Clowe level now... I'd put his salary at 5.2-5.8 if the cap continues to rise as it has. Cap should be much higher if the NHL hits it big in certain markets (discussion for another time) and improves their overall execution of the business. Though they could just use the increased revenue (if there are any) and appease the players by getting rid of the escrow.

Great point about the slot one timers.

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Old
05-06-2011, 05:02 PM
  #12
Mhoogasian94123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Franchise13 View Post
He might be taller sitting in a wheel chair.
I think you're mistaking Boyle for Nichol. HE would be taller in a wheelchair.

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Old
05-06-2011, 05:48 PM
  #13
Nighthock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Isn't this summer time fodder? Bump this thread after the seasons over and I might care. Probably not, since it's so far out to judge for players that have either NTC's or NMC's
my sentiments exactly

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