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implications of some recent transactions

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Old
02-22-2012, 02:32 PM
  #1
tiger_80
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implications of some recent transactions

T.Ruutu signed a 5 year deal worth 19 million. Anyone still has any doubts that Hemsky will easily get 4.5M for 5 years on the open market?

Vermette traded for basically 2nd round pick and spares. Vermette's numbers this year are similar to Hemsky's, he has no history of injury and is signed for several more years.

Ruutu signing, IMHO, means two things. 1) Hemsky will get traded 2) his trade value just went up a bit.

Vermette trade can serve as a bench-mark for what one should expect in return.

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02-22-2012, 02:37 PM
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Mr Forever
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With Ruutu off the market what other top 6 wingers are available?

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02-22-2012, 02:37 PM
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I'd agree although I'd wager Hemsky would be worth a late first and possibly a serviceable 5/6 defenseman or 3rd/4th line winger. Of which, we have a plethora.

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02-22-2012, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger_80 View Post
T.Ruutu signed a 5 year deal worth 19 million. Anyone still has any doubts that Hemsky will easily get 4.5M for 5 years on the open market?

Vermette traded for basically 2nd round pick and spares. Vermette's numbers this year are similar to Hemsky's, he has no history of injury and is signed for several more years.

Ruutu signing, IMHO, means two things. 1) Hemsky will get traded 2) his trade value just went up a bit.

Vermette trade can serve as a bench-mark for what one should expect in return.
So Hemsky for a mid 2nd and a 5th? Pass. I'd rather try and sign him.

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02-22-2012, 02:44 PM
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Vermette gets what 3.75 for 3 more years I think? I think you are low balling Hemskys trade value as you are comparing a 3.75 million guy that was obtained for about the same price as he was just traded with Hemksy while comparing the salary value to that of Ruuttu.

I agree with your assessment on Hemskys contract value but if he is getting Ruuttu money his trade value will be similar to what Ruuttu would have got.

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02-22-2012, 02:45 PM
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tiger_80
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Originally Posted by Hemsky_Gretzky View Post
So Hemsky for a mid 2nd and a 5th? Pass. I'd rather try and sign him.
i think the management is not comfortable giving Hemsky what Canes gave Ruutu.

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02-22-2012, 02:46 PM
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So if Hemsky goes for a 2nd and a 5th like Vermette, that's supposed to be an indication that his value has gone UP?

I've been in the sign Hemsky camp already, but if that's all he's worth, then there's really no reason at all to trade him.

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02-22-2012, 02:47 PM
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I'd be fine with a 3-4 year deal worth 4-4.5 million. I'd even offer him a NMC for 2 of those years.

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02-22-2012, 02:48 PM
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he will fetch more than Vermette, but in the same ball park. Maybe substitute 2nd for late first.

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02-22-2012, 02:53 PM
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was listening to spectors show, and he's 100% convinced that Hemsky will not be resigned and wants to test free agency. If that's the case, and a 2nd and a 5th is all the market will fetch, make it so. Better than losing him for nothing.

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02-22-2012, 02:55 PM
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joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
With Ruutu off the market what other top 6 wingers are available?
Right now? Pretty much anyone on CBJ and Buffalo are available so there is some. I'd say Malone and Kostitsyn from the East and from the West there is a bunch of maybes right now.

Maybe Selanne and the other ANA guys. Maybe Heatley from MIN. Jones from COL, but not sure he is what people are looking for. Dallas apparently has Ott as available for the right price so why not Riberio, Ryder and Morrow?

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02-22-2012, 02:57 PM
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In reference to Oilermans post

Why not throw in something to get a first? We have a lot of picks/prospects, if Hemsky is only worth a 2nd see what it'll take to get a 1st.

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02-22-2012, 02:59 PM
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Gregor's right about Hemsky on the UFA market now. Obviously Carolina overpaid to keep Ruutu and he brings some more "crust" than Hemsky but he puts up far fewer PPG and is injured just as often. I can't see Hemsky accepting a deal for less than Ruutu just got, in term and AAV.

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02-22-2012, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by 0ilerman View Post
was listening to spectors show, and he's 100% convinced that Hemsky will not be resigned and wants to test free agency. If that's the case, and a 2nd and a 5th is all the market will fetch, make it so. Better than losing him for nothing.
Spector has never been right about anything. I hold him in equal esteem as Eric Francis.

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02-22-2012, 03:14 PM
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The biggest concern I have a long term contract to Hemsky is that I see him asking for a 5million a year deal and we will wont 5 years. From my perspective that is a lot for a second line player and that is what Hemsky will be and is. Eberle is the number 1 right winger on this team. Eberle has 26 goals already this year. Hemsky has never scored 26 in one year and Eberle is more dangerous then Hemsky has ever been. I do not see Hemsky will be an oiler come start of the 2012/013 season. I think Omark fits on the second line in the future

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02-22-2012, 03:23 PM
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Hemsky > Vermette

Also, who wants pay Vermettte $3.75M/yr for 3 more years! He could be another Moreau by the end of it.

Hemsky is still worth a first and filler prospect or body (contract/cap dump).

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02-22-2012, 03:28 PM
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nexttothemoon
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I wouldn't want to see Hemsky get $5 million and I wouldn't give him 5 years either. Truth be told I think anything but a very short term contract (2 years max) is silly to give to Hemsky when he is extremely injury prone.

Hemsky and his agent obviously will not want a 2 year contract so it's Adios Amigos.

Turn the page... take the best deal that's on the table at the deadline and move on. Picks/prospects and/or roster players for Hemsky is far better than watching him miss half a season every year for the next 5 years.

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Old
02-22-2012, 03:41 PM
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We'd be overrun with other fans yelling "Told ya so"!!!! If all we get is a 2nd round pick for Hemsky.

It's a no-win scenario right now...sell him when his value is low or lose him for nothing.

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Old
02-22-2012, 03:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppler Drift View Post
Spector has never been right about anything. I hold him in equal esteem as Eric Francis.
+1b spector is an idiot, he likes to say dumb junk in an attempt to rile up oil fans, he knows they'll respond and then they show him with his stupid mug on TV talking about fabricated unsubstantiated rumors like they are fact.

Eric Francis is a perfect comparable

I am sure Tambo has made it clear that hemsky is available for a steep price.

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02-22-2012, 04:36 PM
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nexttothemoon
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Like others have said.. I don't think the Oilers are wanting to commit to Hemsky for what he's worth on the UFA market.

Hemsky's fair value is probably $5 million for 5 years... and at that cost (and length) I just see no way the Oilers would want to commit to him when he has questions marks over his durability, and his "chemistry" and fit on the team going forward.

Ruutu is a decent comparable as they are basically the same age with almost exact time on ice per game over their careers. Hemsky is obviously more talented offensively (when healthy) and Ruutu has more intangibles (grit etc). Ruutu has slightly higher goals per game and Hemsky has much higher assists per game over their careers.

All in all if Ruutu is worth ~$4 million, Hemsky should be worth ~$5 million.

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02-22-2012, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Runningreb View Post
The biggest concern I have a long term contract to Hemsky is that I see him asking for a 5million a year deal and we will wont 5 years. From my perspective that is a lot for a second line player and that is what Hemsky will be and is. Eberle is the number 1 right winger on this team. Eberle has 26 goals already this year. Hemsky has never scored 26 in one year and Eberle is more dangerous then Hemsky has ever been. I do not see Hemsky will be an oiler come start of the 2012/013 season. I think Omark fits on the second line in the future
I hope like hell you're right about Eberle but he's riding on ridiculously high percentages right now, getting among the most favorable zone starts in the league, and can't handle tough opposition defensively very well at all. Whereas with Hemmer, you know that he can face the toughs and outproduce them even this year, his worst since his rookie year.

Going with Eberle and Omark, with those considerations in mind, is total folly, I think, but our management has never been very good at looking at the underlying considerations--just look at Brule or Brodziak, and how they either rewarded or gave up on them, respectively, when the underlying numbers were directly contrary to the Oilers' decisions regarding them. That tells me all I need to know about the ability of this team's ability to assess talent...along with signings of guys like Bulin, Barker, and now Sutton. They'll lose Hemsky for virtually nothing, he'll sign a deal for 4.5-5 million over 3-5 years, and he'll be back near 0.9 PPG again in short time. Ebs will be a nice piece, obviously, but won't see an offensive year on par with this one for at least 3-4 years, I'd bet...just based on his exceptional percentages and favourable situations this year compared to how he'll be used when Hemsky isn't there to shelter him against the toughest opposition or pick up some of the tougher zone starts.

Not saying that we'll regret anything about Eberle, just that we'll regret letting Hemsky go too soon when Ebs isn't quite ready to handle a lot of the unsung tasks which Hemsky is currently handling.

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02-22-2012, 06:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Horseradish View Post
I hope like hell you're right about Eberle but he's riding on ridiculously high percentages right now, getting among the most favorable zone starts in the league, and can't handle tough opposition defensively very well at all. Whereas with Hemmer, you know that he can face the toughs and outproduce them even this year, his worst since his rookie year.

Going with Eberle and Omark, with those considerations in mind, is total folly, I think, but our management has never been very good at looking at the underlying considerations--just look at Brule or Brodziak, and how they either rewarded or gave up on them, respectively, when the underlying numbers were directly contrary to the Oilers' decisions regarding them. That tells me all I need to know about the ability of this team's ability to assess talent...along with signings of guys like Bulin, Barker, and now Sutton. They'll lose Hemsky for virtually nothing, he'll sign a deal for 4.5-5 million over 3-5 years, and he'll be back near 0.9 PPG again in short time. Ebs will be a nice piece, obviously, but won't see an offensive year on par with this one for at least 3-4 years, I'd bet...just based on his exceptional percentages and favourable situations this year compared to how he'll be used when Hemsky isn't there to shelter him against the toughest opposition or pick up some of the tougher zone starts.

Not saying that we'll regret anything about Eberle, just that we'll regret letting Hemsky go too soon when Ebs isn't quite ready to handle a lot of the unsung tasks which Hemsky is currently handling.
Outproduce them this year?

I should have stopped reading there but it's like watching a train wreck. Now I'm worried how well Eberle will do when Hemsky's not here to shelter him from tough opposition


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02-22-2012, 06:04 PM
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Jek McPorkins
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Originally Posted by Oi'll say! View Post
Outproduce them this year?

I should have stopped reading there but it's like watching a train wreck. Now I'm worried how well Eberle will do when Hemsky's not here to shelter him from tough opposition

Not sure why you're making fun of him. He's actually right.

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02-22-2012, 06:12 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger_80 View Post
T.Ruutu signed a 5 year deal worth 19 million. Anyone still has any doubts that Hemsky will easily get 4.5M for 5 years on the open market?

Vermette traded for basically 2nd round pick and spares. Vermette's numbers this year are similar to Hemsky's, he has no history of injury and is signed for several more years.

Ruutu signing, IMHO, means two things. 1) Hemsky will get traded 2) his trade value just went up a bit.

Vermette trade can serve as a bench-mark for what one should expect in return.
At least we don't need to worry about losing to the 'Canes in the scf anymore.

Ruutu isn't as bad as people are thinking here. If you took away 20 of Hemsky's 2nd assists and replaced them with 5 goals, some physical edge and defensive effort you have Ruutu.

I don't want either of them all that badly - they earn a shload of money, tie up valuable roster spots and leave a lot on the table after every shift. In Hemsky's case that's defensive effort and physical play, in Tuomo's case that's offensive ability.

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Old
02-22-2012, 06:13 PM
  #25
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Give the Kings what they really wanted last year. This yr, give them Hemsky in exchange for their first rounder and Dustin Penner. Let Dustin walk if he's not willing to hang around for 2.5 next year.

A middling first rounder for Hemsky is probably as good as it gets during these last minute dealings before the deadline.

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