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Brewer obviously NOT overpaid

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07-16-2004, 01:21 PM
  #1
hockeyaddict101
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Brewer obviously NOT overpaid

If he was he never would have filed for arbitration, as as much as arbitration is geared towards the player his agent has to use comparables to make sure that he gets a raise.

I have been arguing that he wasn't overpaid for a while and the fact that he went to arbitration stengthens what I have been saying all along.

If he was overpaid and there were no comparisions his agent would have snapped up the qualifiying offer.

I also thought that Smith was given too much by an arbitrator and notice he didn't file and hasn't filed since he received his 50% raise.

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07-16-2004, 01:24 PM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
If he was he never would have filed for arbitration, as as much as arbitration is geared towards the player his agent has to use comparables to make sure that he gets a raise.

I have been arguing that he wasn't overpaid for a while and the fact that he went to arbitration stengthens what I have been saying all along.

If he was overpaid and there were no comparisions his agent would have snapped up the qualifiying offer.

I also thought that Smith was given too much by an arbitrator and notice he didn't file and hasn't filed since he received his 50% raise.
So if you were Brewer's agent, who do you think would make a good comparable?

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07-16-2004, 01:33 PM
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Respectfully disagree, although Eric Brewer is one player I hope they hold on to during this murky time between cba's.

Eric Brewer has so many things going for him its silly, and yet he is not yet a player who a team can talk about as being "there" yet. In a way, he reminds me of Mark Howe, who used to play 40 HOF games and 40 simply awful ones in a season. It took him a long time to settle in (he had been used as a LW in the WHA) and its taking Brewer much longer than one would have hoped.

Having said that, he's a gem. Big, fast, and when he's confident he plays with an edge and a mean streak that makes him a very special player.

The ONLY problem I have is that Lowe gave him a contract based on potential. I'm not talking about offense (Brewer is unlikely to score 50 points any time soon) but a consistent game that a coach can count on. Like Jason Smith with some extra weight and a better head man pass.

Brewer didn't make that big step like a Wade Redden did, and I agree with Lowe that his filing is a surprise because he doesn't deserve a raise.

And I LOVE Eric Brewer's game.

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07-16-2004, 01:35 PM
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You know I've been thinking for a good 5 minutes and can't find one guy who i would compare Brewer too. He is either not as good as the other guy or much better.

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07-16-2004, 01:37 PM
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I agree Lowetide, I'm a huge Brewer fan and while him and his agent may try to trot out Redden (I'm at a loss for other "comparables"), Brewer has yet to crack 30 points and, last I checked, wasn't one of 8-10 names being kicked around as possible Norris nominees in the second half of the season, far from it.

If I'm Lowe, I look no further than a player who IMO is a great comparable for Brewer: Robyn Regehr. Regehr will be entering year two of a five year, $11 million deal next year (GOD, how happy is Sutter he got that done last season) and I would be stunned to see Brew get over $3 million in arbitration.

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07-16-2004, 01:42 PM
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five year, $11 million
What a great signing that was for Calgary. IMO there is no way Lowe would be able to do the same with Brewer as the agent will probablt want another "potential - based" contract. Meaning 80% goes to the " a puck moving dman, with great defensive awarness kinda like Wade Redden" and 20% for what he did.

Meaning if he signs for under 3mill per season it'll be a miracle.

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07-16-2004, 01:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Respectfully disagree, although Eric Brewer is one player I hope they hold on to during this murky time between cba's.

Eric Brewer has so many things going for him its silly, and yet he is not yet a player who a team can talk about as being "there" yet. In a way, he reminds me of Mark Howe, who used to play 40 HOF games and 40 simply awful ones in a season. It took him a long time to settle in (he had been used as a LW in the WHA) and its taking Brewer much longer than one would have hoped.

Having said that, he's a gem. Big, fast, and when he's confident he plays with an edge and a mean streak that makes him a very special player.

The ONLY problem I have is that Lowe gave him a contract based on potential. I'm not talking about offense (Brewer is unlikely to score 50 points any time soon) but a consistent game that a coach can count on. Like Jason Smith with some extra weight and a better head man pass.

Brewer didn't make that big step like a Wade Redden did, and I agree with Lowe that his filing is a surprise because he doesn't deserve a raise.

And I LOVE Eric Brewer's game.
That's kinda my point too.

I like Brewer when he's "on" as well, but the hard truth of it is that he hasn't really developed in the last 2 to 3 years. I looked at that 1.5/2.5 contract and saw a 2nd year payout based more on what Lowe hoped he would become. I wouldn't say that Brewer's play in that 2nd year warranted a 66% jump in salary from the previous year.

Lowe's quotes certainly didn't indicate that he thought ANYONE on the Oilers would be filing...but Brewer has.

A few weeks ago it was mentioned that multiyear deals were being discussed regarding Bergeron, Smith, and Dvorak (thanks Igor)...no mention of Brewer.

Makes you think if perhaps the love affair's starting to sour?

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07-16-2004, 01:44 PM
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Makes you think if perhaps the love affair's starting to sour?
As well it should if he asks for over 3mill which I think he will.

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07-16-2004, 01:54 PM
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On the bright side of things, it's guaranteed that the kid will be under contract for the next season (whenever that is). Also, I would think that Lowe will do his best to try and get Brewer to ink a contract prior to the arbitration hearing. I'm guessing that there's still a lot more negotiating to be done.

If Lowe's past history is an indication, he's more willing to broker a deal than go through the arbitration process, with Jason Smith being the only exception thus far.

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07-16-2004, 02:04 PM
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The question then begs to be asked:

With Smith and Staios as the present and Semenov, Bergeron, Lynch and Woywitka as the future, are the Oilers in a position where a deal involving Brewer is feasible without severely damaging the post-2004 plan?

I would say yes, with a caveat. If Brewer is moved, there would have to be a clear need addressed (read: top line C or an elite level RW prospect). I think it's clear our depth and future on D and LW is solid, as is our future down the middle, and our present is set (perhaps not to everyone's liking) in net, with the future looking very bright (strange to say as a lifelong Oilers fan).

Okay, speculation wise, what would the lineup then look like?

Smith-Semenov
Staios- ? ? ?
Ulanov-Bergeron

See, the problem there is that I don't see Cross as ready for top four duty, nor can Ulanov's body take it for a whole season. It's clear Bergeron is being sheltered EV and featured on the PP and I think many of us believe Staios would have a hard time averagin 20+ mins. for a whole season. However, until the CBA is sorted would it be necessary to fill in the ? ? ? blank?

I say no--unless it's through tading a forward made superfluous by a Brewer return (like a Horcoff or an Isbister, who could land a solid but unspectacular D man IMO). Reason being, the market will still have solid 4/5 quality D men available come September, and there's no reason to take on an extra contract for someone who may never play...

Thoughts?

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07-16-2004, 02:11 PM
  #11
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You guys are bang on when you say that it is tough to compare Brewer's game to other defencemen. He cannot be categorized as an offensive d-man, a shut-down d-man, a powerplay specialist, or a hard-nosed d-man. However, he seems to be above average at all those aspects. Even considering that he logs a lot of minutes, I'd be very surprised if he gets awarded more than $3 million. I also hope the Oil are able to hold onto him for a few years yet, because the best is yet to come.

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07-16-2004, 02:13 PM
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I dunno...I think the reason for Brewer and all of the other 66 players filing is the labour uncertainty. It means they will have contracts in place before Sept. 15th under a CBA that clearly favours players with arbitration rights (granted teams do have a right to walk away, but I cannot see Lowe doing that). This looks like due diligence on the part of the agents here.

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07-16-2004, 02:18 PM
  #13
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and therein lies the problem with any Brewer trade - for all his warts, there is nobody right now on the Oilers (with the possible exemption of Semenov, but he's not ready for it yet IMO) who can play the amount of minutes Brewer can without falling to pieces. It was hard enough replacing Niinimaa's minutes, without Brewer it would be quite scary.

Unless Lowe got a stud dman back (unlikely), they might be forced to eschew the #1 pair scheme and have 3 relative equal units playing close to 20 minutes/night each. Even that would be tough on guys like Ulanov and Cross.

An emerging Semi would really help things out here.

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07-16-2004, 02:19 PM
  #14
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I have some comparables for Brewer:

Management's side:
Stuart (SJ) $2.5M
Regehr (CGY) $1.75M
Rathje (SJ) $2.2M
McLaren (SJ) $2.5M
Boynton (BOS) $1.75M
Timonen (NSH) $2.5M
Mara (PHO) $1.5M
Kuba (MIN) $2.5M
Lydman (CGY) $2.4M
Skoula (ANA) $1.85M
Staios (EDM) $2.0M

Player/Agent's side:
Ohlund (VAN) $3.0M
Jovanovski (VAN) $4.75M
Jonsson (NYI) $3.15M
Morris (PHO) $3.5M (last season)

I looked hard for guys under contract for next season that might be "comparables" to Brewer that make more than 2.5M...most of them signed their deals as UFAs and cannot be used in arbitration. Seems to me Brewer will get $2.5M. I'm not at all worried about his arbitration. I put in a different thread Brewer's numbers over the last 4 seasons, they have been virtually identicle, no improvement. If he gets $3M the Oilers will bite the bullet and promptly trade him and I'll have no problem with it. Just because a team overpays (Jonsson's case for instance) does not mean others should be forced to do the same.

I'm fairly certain international competition has no bearing on the NHL arbitration process. NHL teams don't care what players do internationally, they care about what the player does for them...when they are paid.

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07-16-2004, 02:32 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vb
I dunno...I think the reason for Brewer and all of the other 66 players filing is the labour uncertainty. It means they will have contracts in place before Sept. 15th under a CBA that clearly favours players with arbitration rights (granted teams do have a right to walk away, but I cannot see Lowe doing that). This looks like due diligence on the part of the agents here.
Yes, but if Brewer wnated to be certain of having a contract for next year ... all he has to do is sign his qualifier at $2.5 for one year.

His agent and the NHLPA obviously feel that they have a better than 50% chance of getting a higher return.

For the life of me I can't see how. Over the last two years Brewer is about the same performance-wise as Staois and Smith with two noticeable exceptions:

He makes more mistakes that end up in his own net (hence a much worse EV+/-).

He also plays much more PP time. But if you filter out the 5on3 PP results ... I'm sure you'll find that he is one of the most unproductive PP guys in the league (relative to ice-time). In fact I'd guess there can't be more than one or two other players in the league who've played as much PP time and had less impact on PP results.

So I don't get it. Where are the favourable comparables, what angle does the NHLPA think it has here? There must be one, because they aren't foolish ... I just don't see it.

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07-16-2004, 02:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM
I have some comparables for Brewer:

Management's side:
Stuart (SJ) $2.5M
Regehr (CGY) $1.75M
Rathje (SJ) $2.2M
McLaren (SJ) $2.5M
Boynton (BOS) $1.75M
Timonen (NSH) $2.5M
Mara (PHO) $1.5M
Kuba (MIN) $2.5M
Lydman (CGY) $2.4M
Skoula (ANA) $1.85M
Staios (EDM) $2.0M

Player/Agent's side:
Ohlund (VAN) $3.0M
Jovanovski (VAN) $4.75M
Jonsson (NYI) $3.15M
Morris (PHO) $3.5M (last season)

I looked hard for guys under contract for next season that might be "comparables" to Brewer that make more than 2.5M...most of them signed their deals as UFAs and cannot be used in arbitration. Seems to me Brewer will get $2.5M. I'm not at all worried about his arbitration. I put in a different thread Brewer's numbers over the last 4 seasons, they have been virtually identicle, no improvement. If he gets $3M the Oilers will bite the bullet and promptly trade him and I'll have no problem with it. Just because a team overpays (Jonsson's case for instance) does not mean others should be forced to do the same.

I'm fairly certain international competition has no bearing on the NHL arbitration process. NHL teams don't care what players do internationally, they care about what the player does for them...when they are paid.
Good job. I don't think anyone can consider Brewer to be in Ohlund's class. And the other three (Morris, Jovanowski and Jonsson) are grossly overpaid for what they bring IMHO. Which makes them good comparables for the NHLPAs case I suppose.

Jovo and Morris typically bring a lot more offense, or have in the past. Jonsson ... well that was just a terrible deal by Milbury, sort of like the Brewer deal a 'this guy's gonna be great!' contract ... turns out he isn't.

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07-16-2004, 03:11 PM
  #17
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Originally Posted by igor
Yes, but if Brewer wnated to be certain of having a contract for next year ... all he has to do is sign his qualifier at $2.5 for one year.

His agent and the NHLPA obviously feel that they have a better than 50% chance of getting a higher return.

For the life of me I can't see how. Over the last two years Brewer is about the same performance-wise as Staois and Smith with two noticeable exceptions:

He makes more mistakes that end up in his own net (hence a much worse EV+/-).

He also plays much more PP time. But if you filter out the 5on3 PP results ... I'm sure you'll find that he is one of the most unproductive PP guys in the league (relative to ice-time). In fact I'd guess there can't be more than one or two other players in the league who've played as much PP time and had less impact on PP results.

So I don't get it. Where are the favourable comparables, what angle does the NHLPA think it has here? There must be one, because they aren't foolish ... I just don't see it.
Igor, I think Lowe should take you to the hearing as his brain trust.

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07-16-2004, 03:54 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by Digger12
and therein lies the problem with any Brewer trade - for all his warts, there is nobody right now on the Oilers (with the possible exemption of Semenov, but he's not ready for it yet IMO) who can play the amount of minutes Brewer can without falling to pieces. It was hard enough replacing Niinimaa's minutes, without Brewer it would be quite scary.

Unless Lowe got a stud dman back (unlikely), they might be forced to eschew the #1 pair scheme and have 3 relative equal units playing close to 20 minutes/night each. Even that would be tough on guys like Ulanov and Cross.

An emerging Semi would really help things out here.
Not to worry, Digger. Brewer was THIRD on the team in EV minutes. It's his exhorbinant amount of PP time that pushed him up in ice-time (a role in which he was remarkably unproductive BTW).

PLAYER GP ES TOI/g PP TOI/g SH TOI/g
STAIOS 82 17.93 2.73 2.4
SMITH 68 17.63 0.25 3.5
BREWER 77 17.60 3.78 3.3
CROSS 68 15.40 1.22 2.6
ULANOV 42 14.57 2.75 2.5
SEMENOV 46 14.37 0.67 2.2
BERGERO 54 13.32 4.02 0.3


The solution? Play a forward on the point on the PP more often. Easy-peasy.

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07-16-2004, 04:32 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Not to worry, Digger. Brewer was THIRD on the team in EV minutes. It's his exhorbinant amount of PP time that pushed him up in ice-time (a role in which he was remarkably unproductive BTW).

PLAYER GP ES TOI/g PP TOI/g SH TOI/g
STAIOS 82 17.93 2.73 2.4
SMITH 68 17.63 0.25 3.5
BREWER 77 17.60 3.78 3.3
CROSS 68 15.40 1.22 2.6
ULANOV 42 14.57 2.75 2.5
SEMENOV 46 14.37 0.67 2.2
BERGERO 54 13.32 4.02 0.3


The solution? Play a forward on the point on the PP more often. Easy-peasy.
I know...crunched some numbers here:

PP TOI/PP Points for that player

Brewer - 29 minutes, 8 seconds (291:25 total PP TOI)
Ulanov - 29 minutes, 2 seconds (116:07 total PP TOI)
Staios - 24 minutes, 57 seconds (224:31 total PP TOI)
MAB - 21 minutes, 47 seconds (217:46 total PP TOI)
Cross - 20 minutes, 55 seconds (83:38 total PP TOI)

Semenov barely registered, Smith had 0 PP points in 17:19 of total PP ice time.

When Cory Cross is your most productive PP quarterback for dmen, it's time to reassess.

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07-16-2004, 05:19 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by igor
Good job. I don't think anyone can consider Brewer to be in Ohlund's class. And the other three (Morris, Jovanowski and Jonsson) are grossly overpaid for what they bring IMHO. Which makes them good comparables for the NHLPAs case I suppose.

Jovo and Morris typically bring a lot more offense, or have in the past. Jonsson ... well that was just a terrible deal by Milbury, sort of like the Brewer deal a 'this guy's gonna be great!' contract ... turns out he isn't.
Yeah. I love how the NHLPA will use one bad deal as the standard for all future deals. Thankfully there are WAY more players making the same or less than Brewer who are considered relatively similar (top pairing guys). I really think Burke sealed his fait with the contract he gave to Jovanovski and Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi was given a new deal when they could have just waited out the season last year and retained his rights in the summer. He was not going to be a UFA this summer, so it boggles my mind why they made that deal with him. He didn't even end up with 20 goals this past season. Just ridiculous.

Bertuzzi has 6 goals in 24 playoff games, and 14pts. Markus Naslund has been head and shoulders above Bertuzzi in the playoffs. Bertuzzi has been physical (sometimes) but you have to produce goals too. Tight checking cannot explain his struggles. And we all know what he did this year...great team mate there!

And Burke is one of the best GMs in the game? The only additions of any significance he made to that team were Jovanovski (for Bure, so it's not like they didn't give something up), Cloutier and the Sedins. Their drafts have been disasters and now they are shackled with ludicrous contracts heading into the new CBA world. What would Bertuzzi be worth in this summer's market, after a 17 goal season and an enormous mistake? Why would they give him WAY more than their captain and best player? What could they have gotten in a Bertuzzi trade this summer? Burke should get on TV, not back in a GM chair.

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07-16-2004, 05:30 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM
And Burke is one of the best GMs in the game? The only additions of any significance he made to that team were Jovanovski (for Bure, so it's not like they didn't give something up), Cloutier and the Sedins.
Any signifacance? Was he not the GM when Naslund was brought in? Or Bertuzzi? I'm asking these as actual questions by the way as I'm unsure, but thought he was. Sounds like you full out hate Bertuzzi, but you have to admit, he's one damn good player. I refuse to get into the incident, but you can't say he wasn't a good player for the Canucks and sure helped them become a powerhouse team.

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07-16-2004, 05:35 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by Jamie
Any signifacance? Was he not the GM when Naslund was brought in? Or Bertuzzi? I'm asking these as actual questions by the way as I'm unsure, but thought he was. Sounds like you full out hate Bertuzzi, but you have to admit, he's one damn good player. I refuse to get into the incident, but you can't say he wasn't a good player for the Canucks and sure helped them become a powerhouse team.
I'm sure Mizral could confirm but I am pretty sure those were Keenan deals.

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07-16-2004, 05:36 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie
Any signifacance? Was he not the GM when Naslund was brought in? Or Bertuzzi? I'm asking these as actual questions by the way as I'm unsure, but thought he was. Sounds like you full out hate Bertuzzi, but you have to admit, he's one damn good player. I refuse to get into the incident, but you can't say he wasn't a good player for the Canucks and sure helped them become a powerhouse team.
Maybe refraise that to "really good regular season" team...powerhouse team they are not!

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07-16-2004, 05:58 PM
  #24
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i really cant see how brewer will be getting more than 2.6-2.8 at the very most.... the comparables just simply arent there (as many others have stated)

in another thread somebody mentioned that we now have about 11 million to sign smith, brewer, dvorak, nedved, semenov and a couple others.....

brewer - 2.7
smith - 2.5
dvorak - 2
nedved - 3-3.2
semenov - 0.8-0.9

now right there thats about 11.5 or so.... and there are a couple players i am forgetting from his list.... something might have to give, or lowe will have to try and convince the owners that the team will make the 2nd round of the playoffs.... i could really see smith being moved for a young RW or 1st rounder

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07-16-2004, 06:05 PM
  #25
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I guess Brewer is gambling that an arbitrator will do something stupid – and give him a big undeserved raise. Really – as igor points out – the guy has NO NUMBERS. He will get slaughtered in arb in terms of his offensive numbers (given his PP time) and +/- stats. I’m very surprised he filed as he was certainly overpaid last year. Hell Smith has a better case for a raise than Brew – an even that case was flimsy.

One question – can the team offer less than the qualifying offer if the player chooses to go arb??? If that’s the case then I would not offer Brew any more than $2 million and be prepared to beat the c**p out of him in the hearing (which will not be hard).

All that said – I feel the same as Lowetide – I like Brew and hope he stays. This should be entertaining

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