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Brewer obviously NOT overpaid

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Old
07-16-2004, 07:32 PM
  #26
hockeyaddict101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Respectfully disagree, although Eric Brewer is one player I hope they hold on to during this murky time between cba's.

Eric Brewer has so many things going for him its silly, and yet he is not yet a player who a team can talk about as being "there" yet. In a way, he reminds me of Mark Howe, who used to play 40 HOF games and 40 simply awful ones in a season. It took him a long time to settle in (he had been used as a LW in the WHA) and its taking Brewer much longer than one would have hoped.

Having said that, he's a gem. Big, fast, and when he's confident he plays with an edge and a mean streak that makes him a very special player.

The ONLY problem I have is that Lowe gave him a contract based on potential. I'm not talking about offense (Brewer is unlikely to score 50 points any time soon) but a consistent game that a coach can count on. Like Jason Smith with some extra weight and a better head man pass.

Brewer didn't make that big step like a Wade Redden did, and I agree with Lowe that his filing is a surprise because he doesn't deserve a raise.

And I LOVE Eric Brewer's game.
If that were the case then why did the agent go to arbitration. If you are arguing that he didn't have a good season then he shouldn't have a case for arbitration but we all know that agents rarely if ever lose their cases.

If he didn't deserve a raise then wouldn't his agent have grabbed the qualifying offer knowing Brewer is overpaid.

Seems to me that this argument now holds no water, because he is overpaid like many are contending than his agent would NEVER opted for arbitration.

How many arbitration cases does the player get the same as he is being paid? How often do they lose?

I hope you are all right but I expect that I was right all along and Brewer was not as horribly overpaid as many have said and the fact that his agent went to arbitration strengthens that argument.

If you are all correct they will not settle early and Brewer will go to arbitration and get slaughtered. We'll see, I for one and not holding my breath.

This is one of those times where I would LOVE to be wrong.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 07-16-2004 at 07:46 PM.
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07-16-2004, 07:48 PM
  #27
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I don't know why Brewer is doing this, but it seems like awesome news to me.

Enjoy your paycut, Brewer, or so I'll hope

This should absolutely be a "gloves off" session, for this guy to go to arb and try to land more after the contract Lowe gave him last time is just a slap in Lowe's face.

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07-16-2004, 07:48 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog

brewer - 2.7
smith - 2.5
dvorak - 2
nedved - 3-3.2
semenov - 0.8-0.9

now right there thats about 11.5 or so.... and there are a couple players i am forgetting from his list.... something might have to give
Bergeron is the only player you missed.

Burke traded to get Linden back (a good move, and signed him at less $$$) so that's one good thing. Bertuzzi and Naslund were not Burke deals. I don't question that Bertuzzi is a great player. I'm just saying Burke did something when there was (from what I saw) no REAL pressure to do so. This time last year Bertuzzi was still a few years from UFA status, making $3.7M US. He was coming off two strong seasons, but WAS UNDER CONTRACT and certainly not living hand to mouth. He finished the year with JUST 17 goals! He would have had the least amount of leverage one could have imagined at the start of the 2003-04 campaign. Now the Canucks are locked into a long-term contract that will pay Bertuzzi over $7M US per season.

Examples of market correction that has happend this summer: Primeau took a pay cut even though he was a UFA and could have gone to the highest bidder. He was far and away Philly's best player in the playoffs and was one of the top 3 skaters in the entire playoffs. Demitra was not given a $6.5M qualifying offer from the Blues and became a UFA, VERY unlikely to get that money on the open market.

Bertuzzi probably could have been locked up for 3 years 16M bucks had the Burke and the Canucks owners not freaked out for no good reason last year. Had the Canucks waited until this summer they'd have had indisputable proof that Bertuzzi is not Iginla!

Just to compare over the last 3 years:
Iginla (2 years younger than Bertuzzi)
238GP-----------Playoffs: 22Pts in 26GP, 13G
236Pts----------1 Art Ross, 2 Rocket Richard, 1 Lester B. Pearson
128G

Bertuzzi (happily playing with Naslund)
223GP-----------Playoffs: 14Pts in 24GP, 6G
242Pts----------no awards
99G

I'm sure if you asked Bertuzzi himself and Pat Morris who the best RW in hockey is, they'd tell you, in an honest moment, that it's Todd Bertuzzi. Not Iginla, Jagr, Palffy, Hossa, St. Louis, Hejduk or Heatley. Bertuzzi. That's the problem. Teams need to be stronger when players think they're the BEST. Jagr and Iginla have been league scoring champions and have both produced more in the playoffs than Bertuzzi (to be fair Iggy has only have two playoff years, not as much time as Bertuzzi to underproduce@$!$#!).

Burke's handling of Bertuzzi displays exactly why the NHL is in the boat it's in. The current CBA has lots of tools GMs can use to control spending. They just don't use those tools.


Last edited by Hemsky4PM: 07-16-2004 at 08:08 PM.
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07-16-2004, 08:03 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I don't know why Brewer is doing this, but it seems like awesome news to me.

Enjoy your paycut, Brewer, or so I'll hope

This should absolutely be a "gloves off" session, for this guy to go to arb and try to land more after the contract Lowe gave him last time is just a slap in Lowe's face.
Yeah agree 100% speeds - if it gets to the hearing they should take the spurs to him. Lowe has done everything in his power to boost Brew and the investment has not been fully re-paid. If Brew thinks he doesn't owe anyone anything - then slap him down in the hearing.

But back to my earlier question - can the Oilers offer less than the qualifying offer at the arb hearing?

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07-16-2004, 08:09 PM
  #30
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"I don't think there would be any reason for them to (file)," said GM Kevin Lowe. "I've said all along that I don't think any of them would have much of a case."

I just hope it doesnt get ugly. That sometimes spells the end of a player with a team, if the GM trashes him at the hearing.

Hopefully they can get an 11th hour deal done, like Smyth.

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07-16-2004, 08:27 PM
  #31
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Just because Eric Brewer and his agent don't think he's overpaid, doesn't justify the original thread starter;s claim that Brewer is "obviously NOT overpaid"

They think that he's not, but that far from makes it so

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07-16-2004, 08:28 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
But back to my earlier question - can the Oilers offer less than the qualifying offer at the arb hearing?
As far as I know, they can.

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07-16-2004, 08:29 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cawz
"I don't think there would be any reason for them to (file)," said GM Kevin Lowe. "I've said all along that I don't think any of them would have much of a case."

I just hope it doesnt get ugly. That sometimes spells the end of a player with a team, if the GM trashes him at the hearing.

Hopefully they can get an 11th hour deal done, like Smyth.
I hope if it goes that long and Brewer gets into the hearing that Lowe tears a strip off him.

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07-16-2004, 08:33 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skylab
Just because Eric Brewer and his agent don't think he's overpaid, doesn't justify the original thread starter;s claim that Brewer is "obviously NOT overpaid"

They think that he's not, but that far from makes it so
My argument is that how often is the agent wrong? I think we can count on our fingers the amount of arbitration cases have resulted in the player losing. Were any of them with Meehan as an agent? Anyone know how many arbitration cases the player has actually lost.

If he was so obviously overpaid as many posters suggest then Meehan never would have filed. My suggestion is that this argument which has been so prevalent took a hit today.

Again I hope I am completely out to lunch and Meehan has suddenly become stupid and Lowe will win this one big time.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 07-16-2004 at 08:36 PM.
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07-16-2004, 08:57 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
My argument is that how often is the agent wrong? I think we can count on our fingers the amount of arbitration cases have resulted in the player losing. Were any of them with Meehan as an agent? Anyone know how many arbitration cases the player has actually lost.

If he was so obviously overpaid as many posters suggest then Meehan never would have filed. My suggestion is that this argument which has been so prevalent took a hit today.

Again I hope I am completely out to lunch and Meehan has suddenly become stupid and Lowe will win this one big time.
It's all about the numbers and comparables - and I am totally stunned that Brew and Meehan think they have a case in either area. There are LOTS of guys comparable to Brew making less coin - and a few guys who are clearly better making a bit more. The guy has had crappy +/- numbers on a team that does very well in this area and he has never had more than 29 points.

I like Brew and I don't think he was over-paid until this year IMHO - but going arb now really is a slap in the face for Lowe. The guy has a very slim case while the Oilers have a very strong one. I would be angling for a pay-cut and would only offer $2 million at arb if it went that far. Worst case scenario is he gets paid the same as last season - he just doesn't have the numbers - no how no way.

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07-16-2004, 08:58 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM
Bergeron is the only player you missed.

Burke traded to get Linden back (a good move, and signed him at less $$$) so that's one good thing. Bertuzzi and Naslund were not Burke deals. I don't question that Bertuzzi is a great player. I'm just saying Burke did something when there was (from what I saw) no REAL pressure to do so. This time last year Bertuzzi was still a few years from UFA status, making $3.7M US. He was coming off two strong seasons, but WAS UNDER CONTRACT and certainly not living hand to mouth. He finished the year with JUST 17 goals! He would have had the least amount of leverage one could have imagined at the start of the 2003-04 campaign. Now the Canucks are locked into a long-term contract that will pay Bertuzzi over $7M US per season.

Other than Bertuzzi's contract, I would say that Burke has gotten more for less on a large majority of his contracts. Matt Cooke, Markus Naslund, Linden and yes even Jovanovski are all contracts that are well below what they could have garnered on the market. Your whole opinion about Bertuzzi's contract is absurd... you make him sound like he's a bum because of one year that started slowly (huge crackdown on Bertuzzi by the refs was very noticable... not saying he didn't deserve the attention, cause he always pissed and moaned and complained ), and ended extremely badly. You many not like Bertuzzi, but you're selling his recongnized ability extremely short, and when he starts playing again I am certain you will proven extremely ignorant with your judgment of his ability.

Examples of market correction that has happend this summer: Primeau took a pay cut even though he was a UFA and could have gone to the highest bidder. He was far and away Philly's best player in the playoffs and was one of the top 3 skaters in the entire playoffs. Demitra was not given a $6.5M qualifying offer from the Blues and became a UFA, VERY unlikely to get that money on the open market.

Riiight... everyone could have just known in advance that Primeau would sign that kind of contract, because there's been so much evidence of players doing that for years. I'd take Bertuzzi over Primeau and Demitra at their salarys anyday. Guess you were a huge Primeau fan the previous seasons when he was unproductive... or when they went out against the Sens while scoring a couple of goals while being favorites to go deep?

Bertuzzi probably could have been locked up for 3 years 16M bucks had the Burke and the Canucks owners not freaked out for no good reason last year. Had the Canucks waited until this summer they'd have had indisputable proof that Bertuzzi is not Iginla!

Burke paid Bertuzzi good money because he felt he was an intergal part of the team and was good value for his $. I think Burke wanted to show the fans he was commited to the team and commited to them after they had really come out in support of the Canucks. And yet you find that attitude dumb and short sighted because of ... well pretty much hindsite. What happens to Bertuzzi's contract if he played like he had the two previous seasons? Or a new CBA was signed with a soft cap (like many seem to there will be)? Maybe the Canucks get by the Flames in the first round... that's not a huge stretch is it? You know.. to even concider? So, there's a good chance then that Bertuzzi's value has now gone through the roof, and maybe you can tack on a couple more million a year to his demands (a la' your evil money grubbing agent's demands). Let's also not forget that the UFA agreement would likely be lower, and well maybe Bertuzzi just leaves after that next season... or signs a minimum one year contract or something. Seems like Bertuzzi has a whole lot of leverage in his hands in that senario.

Yeah right... you don't think even after all this that Bertuzzi's agent would be asking for more than 6 million a year, and you don't think that the Leafs or Rangers or Wings wouldn't pay that in a second to get Bertuzzi... regardless of any new CBA.

Your "proof" of how much better Iginla is.... right. You compare a guy who played his best down the stretch and in the playoffs to a player who wasn't even on the ice for most of it. Smart. Interesting to hear what your thoughts about Iginlas contract were last year.



Just to compare over the last 3 years:
Iginla (2 years younger than Bertuzzi)
238GP-----------Playoffs: 22Pts in 26GP, 13G
236Pts----------1 Art Ross, 2 Rocket Richard, 1 Lester B. Pearson
128G

Bertuzzi (happily playing with Naslund)
223GP-----------Playoffs: 14Pts in 24GP, 6G
242Pts----------no awards
99G

LOL So Iginla get's AWARDS!!! for having less points.... I guess that must make him a much better player. Last year in the playoffs Bertuzzi had a wrist injury ... you know, the kind of injury that hampers a players ability to pass and shoot the puck. I actually do think that Iginla is a better player, and his next contract will be higher than Bertuzzi's. This actually shows that they are in a similiar earning bracket.

I'm sure if you asked Bertuzzi himself and Pat Morris who the best RW in hockey is, they'd tell you, in an honest moment, that it's Todd Bertuzzi. Not Iginla, Jagr, Palffy, Hossa, St. Louis, Hejduk or Heatley. Bertuzzi. That's the problem. Teams need to be stronger when players think they're the BEST. Jagr and Iginla have been league scoring champions and have both produced more in the playoffs than Bertuzzi (to be fair Iggy has only have two playoff years, not as much time as Bertuzzi to underproduce@$!$#!).

What the heck is this comment? How do you know anything of the kind? There is no basis for this kind of comment at all... other than you don't like Bertuzzi.

Burke's handling of Bertuzzi displays exactly why the NHL is in the boat it's in. The current CBA has lots of tools GMs can use to control spending. They just don't use those tools

Wrong... for all the reasons I posted above. You should pack up your 20/20 vision and try opperating in the reality of sequencial time. Anyone who says that the contract given to Bertuzzi pre CBA expiration where the UFA age was thought to be going down to Bertuzzi's age doesn't know what they're talking about.

There's lots of things you can dislike about Burke (and I'm sure you know them all), but signing unrealistic contracts isn't one of them.

.

Thought this was a thread about Brewer, a defenceman, not being overpaid?

Is Adrian Accoin (sp?) a good comparison for Brewer? I know he puts up more points... but they are of a similar size and playing style. Both able to log big minutes.

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07-16-2004, 09:06 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quat
Thought this was a thread about Brewer, a defenceman, not being overpaid?

Is Adrian Accoin (sp?) a good comparison for Brewer? I know he puts up more points... but they are of a similar size and playing style. Both able to log big minutes.
Here's Aucoin's line from last year:

81GP 13G 31A 44PTS 54PIM +29

It's not even close in terms of points (especially considering the amount of PP time Brew gets) and +/- where Aucoin destroys him (Brewer is 234th in league for dmen while Aucoin was 3rd). I think you could make an easy case that Brew is one of the least effective PP dmen in the league and not great defensively. Not something that wins you a raise and it may even get you a pay cut.


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07-16-2004, 09:10 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by quat
Thought this was a thread about Brewer, a defenceman, not being overpaid?

Is Adrian Accoin (sp?) a good comparison for Brewer? I know he puts up more points... but they are of a similar size and playing style. Both able to log big minutes.
The best comparison I can think of for Brewer is Hannan, but he's going to arbitration as well, so it'll be interesting to see how the two contracts compare afterwards.

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07-16-2004, 09:18 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie
The best comparison I can think of for Brewer is Hannan, but he's going to arbitration as well, so it'll be interesting to see how the two contracts compare afterwards.
Yeah but Hannan is always a plus player and he only made $1.25 million last year - he actually has a case.

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07-16-2004, 09:26 PM
  #40
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i would trade staios before i would even consider trading brewer at all. but brewer would most likely get the better return than staios but still every team needs that one solid D man and i believe Brewer can be it even though he hasnt really progressed i still believe in him. If next year he doesnt do anything remarkable than we trade him but i say give him one more year since he got married in summer or is getting married soon.

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07-16-2004, 09:29 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Here's Aucoin's line from last year:

81GP 13G 31A 44PTS 54PIM +29

It's not even close in terms of points (especially considering the amount of PP time Brew gets) and +/- where Aucoin destroys him (Brewer is 234th in league for dmen while Aucoin was 3rd). I think you could make an easy case that Brew is one of the least effective PP dmen in the league and not great defensively. Not something that wins you a raise and it may even get you a pay cut.
By the way things look then, the Oilers may really come out well with this case. If Eric get's a small arbitration figure, he would really have lot's to prove and a good team to prove it on. That fact his play hasn't improved much may be the Silver lining for the team over the next couple of years... if he does step it up.

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07-17-2004, 01:15 AM
  #42
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No one has bothered to answer my question

How many arbitration cases has an agent actually lost, and when was the last arbitration case that a player received a cut in pay or has there ever been one? Meehan is one of the best agents in the basis and I can't believe you all think that he is going to lose and that he hasn't done his research.

It seems to me you are all dreaming in technicolour. (To borrow a posters phrase)

If I turn out to be wrong I will be the first to admit it and will be happy to do so.. Arbitration cases seem to always favour the player and when the agent chooses to do so they almost always win.

This is my concern, it is nice that you are all so confident that this will go Lowe's way but history says that this is not going to be the case.

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07-17-2004, 09:06 AM
  #43
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http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Edmont...17/546290.html

Brewer earned $2.5 million US last season and it's likely that he will look for a new deal for somewhere in the neighbourhood of $3.3 million. The 25-year-old's production dipped slightly last season (25 points in 77 games from 29 points in 80 games in 2002-03) and he was often the target of criticism from fans during the first half of the campaign.

The Oilers may initially counter with a slight drop in pay for Brewer and then hope the arbitrator's reward is not far above last year's salary. Arbitration hearings will be held in Toronto from Aug. 1-15, with the final decisions coming no later than Aug. 17.


slight drop in pay, hope for barely a raise.

I hope that jerk lands 2.2 in arb, geez I would laugh.

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07-17-2004, 09:45 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Edmont...17/546290.html

Brewer earned $2.5 million US last season and it's likely that he will look for a new deal for somewhere in the neighbourhood of $3.3 million. The 25-year-old's production dipped slightly last season (25 points in 77 games from 29 points in 80 games in 2002-03) and he was often the target of criticism from fans during the first half of the campaign.

The Oilers may initially counter with a slight drop in pay for Brewer and then hope the arbitrator's reward is not far above last year's salary. Arbitration hearings will be held in Toronto from Aug. 1-15, with the final decisions coming no later than Aug. 17.


slight drop in pay, hope for barely a raise.

I hope that jerk lands 2.2 in arb, geez I would laugh.
Matheson offers same comparibles.

The Oilers will likely use Kyle Mclaren who makes exactly the same as Brewer, Meehan will most likely use Bryan McCabe who makes 3.5 million. (Why are we not surprised that Meehan has a Leaf as a comparable) The Judge usually decides in the middle. Lowe will start a little lower than 2.5.

They will most likely will ask for a two year deal and are thinking that it will be something like 2.8/2.9. (Hmm sounds reasonable, does this ever get to arbitration, I doubt it)

Lowe knows that he doesn't have the offensive stats but minutes played goes in Brewers favour and can be used by Meehan.

Meehan may also use Wade Redden and Jovanoski because of the comparable on-ice minutes but working against him as both those guys are older, have played in 200 more NHL minutes and have better offensive numbers.

Quoting Lowe "Brew has the minutes (24.39 a game) but not the points"

He also can use the fact that only one Oiler had a lower plus minus. (Alex Hemsky).


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07-17-2004, 09:50 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie
The best comparison I can think of for Brewer is Hannan, but he's going to arbitration as well, so it'll be interesting to see how the two contracts compare afterwards.
Interesting you bring that up. Lowe mentions that the agents are using both Brewer and Hannan to get raises for both. (In the Sun this morning)

If one gets a raise from a arbitrator the agent then can use that raise as a comparable. Its another way that the CBA offers artificial comarables.

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07-17-2004, 10:17 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
He also can use the fact that only one Oiler had a lower plus minus. (Alex Hemsky).
And Meehan will counter "and no other Oiler played the same minutes against the other team's top lines".

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07-17-2004, 10:22 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kraigus
And Meehan will counter "and no other Oiler played the same minutes against the other team's top lines".
Yep. That will be Meehans argument as all have already mentioned Brewer doesn't have the offensive stats but has the defensive stats like minutes played and who he plays against.

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07-17-2004, 10:33 AM
  #48
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2.9 is still way overpaid imo. Brewer right now is not close to being an impact defensive dman, and he's never put up the big time numbers guys like McCabe have done.

There probably isn't enough time before the hearing to deal him, but Lowe must at least be entertaining the idea of offloading a guy who is turning into a monster (somewhat) of Lowe's creation.

DAMN that last contract was a bad one (for the record, I defended it at the time).

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07-17-2004, 10:41 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
2.9 is still way overpaid imo. Brewer right now is not close to being an impact defensive dman, and he's never put up the big time numbers guys like McCabe have done.

There probably isn't enough time before the hearing to deal him, but Lowe must at least be entertaining the idea of offloading a guy who is turning into a monster (somewhat) of Lowe's creation.

DAMN that last contract was a bad one (for the record, I defended it at the time).
I'm still defending it because at the time he had arbitration rights and as we can see, even after a so-so year there are enough comparables that he will get a raise. Imagine if he woudl have had a good offensive year.

As soon as a guy has arbitration rights players are automatically "overpaid" because there is always a comparable that will get them more money and if there isn't the agent will NEVER pick arbitration.

Arbitration throws any sanity out the window IMO.

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07-17-2004, 02:41 PM
  #50
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The player I most often hear Brewer compared with is Paul Mara:

Mara in 2003-04 ($1.5M)
81gp - 6g - 36a - 42pts - -11 - 48pim - 23.60min/gp

Brewer
77gp - 7g - 18a - 25pts - -6 - 67pim - 24.64min/gp

Both are the same age and approximately the same size.

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