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Brewer obviously NOT overpaid

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Old
07-19-2004, 01:17 AM
  #76
momentai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
But remember if Hannan gets a good reward or if that GM blinks then Meehan now has a new comparable for Brewer.
Just a question. But whose arbitration goes first?

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07-19-2004, 01:47 AM
  #77
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Not known yet

But for Igor to be right we can hope that Brewers is first and that no other GM gets crazy.

Because if not those comparables will he ever moving targets.

It all seems cut and dried until you consider there are other dman that have arbitration hearings and that IMO is what Meehan is counting on.

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07-19-2004, 02:29 AM
  #78
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Some very interesting posts here by everybody - notably igor & oilswell. I think oilswell's explanation of events leading to the situation we have now with Brewer are pretty bang on. (or rather, they are a spitting image of my personal opinion )

Also, I think igor's view of Lowe as a hockey man vs. a business man are bang on as well. While I am confident that as a GM, Lowe does have lawyers/businesspeople whom he consults during matters such as this, there is always trepidation when awaiting the actions of a GM like Lowe as opposed to a GM like Jay Feaster, a lawyer by trade.

Man, it's gotta be tough to separate hockey & business in this sense as a GM. It's kinda like the junior company employee who works himself up to a management position - you kinda wanna look out for your buddies and employees, 'cause you've been in their shoes and can feel for them, but as a manager you've still got have it in you to put your foot down when needed.

Hockeywise, I think Lowe does a good job. Businesswise, I think he's getting better, but still has a little ways to go.

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07-19-2004, 08:39 AM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
But for Igor to be right we can hope that Brewers is first and that no other GM gets crazy.

Because if not those comparables will he ever moving targets.

It all seems cut and dried until you consider there are other dman that have arbitration hearings and that IMO is what Meehan is counting on.
The Hannan comparable is a good point ... it could be a worry if Doug Wilson panics before his arbitration hearing. I'd feel much more comfortable if Lombardi was still the gm in S.J.

If Hannan gets an increase from Wilson ... it wouldn't be the death knell for the Oilers in arbs against Brewer ... but it wouldn't help. And more significantly it would give Lowe justification to avoid arbitration.

As far as McCabe goes, by the numbers ... Brewer isn't anywhere close to McCabes level. McCabe faces tougher opposition which lesser team-mates on the ice ... and gets stellar results. McCabe is also decent, though erratic, on the powerplay. And McCabe is coming off of a great year.

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07-19-2004, 11:12 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
The Hannan comparable is a good point ... it could be a worry if Doug Wilson panics before his arbitration hearing. I'd feel much more comfortable if Lombardi was still the gm in S.J.

If Hannan gets an increase from Wilson ... it wouldn't be the death knell for the Oilers in arbs against Brewer ... but it wouldn't help. And more significantly it would give Lowe justification to avoid arbitration.

As far as McCabe goes, by the numbers ... Brewer isn't anywhere close to McCabes level. McCabe faces tougher opposition which lesser team-mates on the ice ... and gets stellar results. McCabe is also decent, though erratic, on the powerplay. And McCabe is coming off of a great year.
No doubt that McCabe is a higher end comparable but Mathesons article mentions him as a comparable so I brought him up. A agent or GM can use anybody and it is up to the arbitrator to reject that comparsion.

There are a lot of dman going to arbitration througout the league, obviously some make better comparables than others but the decisions of the arbitrator or the GM will have a trickle effect on Brewer and that is why Meehan was so comfortable going to arbitration IMO.

Lowe can't just think about Brewers stats, he has to look at possible arbitration awards and contracts awarded. Another reason I wouldn't want to be a GM.

So does he play hardball and hope no other GM gets stupid or an arbitrator makes a decision that makes his case more difficult or does he give Brewer that small raise to 2.8/2.9 on a two year deal? Maybe not as cut and dry as many people think.

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07-19-2004, 01:07 PM
  #81
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This is just a thought, but if Brewer is awarded a raise that Lowe isn't willing to pay, what kind of return do you think Lowe would get for him?


...so here's my Idea:

- sign Nedved
- if Brewer gets awarded too much in arbitration, trade him to NJ along with Reasoner for Colin White and a 2nd round pick
- sign Lindros

This leaves us with a team salary of about 36 million US (going on the assumption of Nedved and Lindros signing for about 3.2 million each, Dvorak getting 2.6, Bergeron & Semenov signing at 800,000 a piece, Rita at 600,000 and Smith at around 2.5), and a lineup looking like this:

Smyth - Lindros - York (or Smyth - York - Lindros)
Torres - Nedved - Dvorak
Moreau - Stoll - Hemsky
Isbister - Horcoff - Pisani

White - Smith
Staios - Cross
Ulanov - Bergeron

PB - Rita, Laraque, Cross

Not only is our lineup much improved (IMO), but we get to reverse the flow of players between NYR and Edmonton, only we're doing it with players who have proven chemistry together (Dvorak and Nedved, and York and Lindros).

I'm probably way off as far as the reality of it all (I really have no clue), but it's fun to think about.

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07-19-2004, 05:48 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit
This is just a thought, but if Brewer is awarded a raise that Lowe isn't willing to pay, what kind of return do you think Lowe would get for him?


...so here's my Idea:

- sign Nedved
- if Brewer gets awarded too much in arbitration, trade him to NJ along with Reasoner for Colin White and a 2nd round pick
- sign Lindros

This leaves us with a team salary of about 36 million US (going on the assumption of Nedved and Lindros signing for about 3.2 million each, Dvorak getting 2.6, Bergeron & Semenov signing at 800,000 a piece, Rita at 600,000 and Smith at around 2.5), and a lineup looking like this:

Smyth - Lindros - York (or Smyth - York - Lindros)
Torres - Nedved - Dvorak
Moreau - Stoll - Hemsky
Isbister - Horcoff - Pisani

White - Smith
Staios - Cross
Ulanov - Bergeron

PB - Rita, Laraque, Cross

Not only is our lineup much improved (IMO), but we get to reverse the flow of players between NYR and Edmonton, only we're doing it with players who have proven chemistry together (Dvorak and Nedved, and York and Lindros).

I'm probably way off as far as the reality of it all (I really have no clue), but it's fun to think about.
Of possible Brewer replacements if we had to find one, White is one IMO. I'd also say Hannan and Mara, but I don't think there's any others that we could get for him, afford, and would be able to fill his role.

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07-19-2004, 07:27 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamie
Of possible Brewer replacements if we had to find one, White is one IMO. I'd also say Hannan and Mara, but I don't think there's any others that we could get for him, afford, and would be able to fill his role.
Man you look at Mara's stats and he's a bit worse than Brew in terms of +/- but kills him in offensive production. At $1.5 million he is a killer comparable to Brew and he's the same age. As others have said - the last year of Brew's contract was silly and is way out of line given his age and performance. The fact that he's going arb now just make things worse. Brew is simply not worth any more than $2 million - and that's what I'd offer in arb.

Would you swap Brew for Mara? I'd consider it.........

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07-19-2004, 08:03 PM
  #84
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I'd have to look it up, but I think I've read before that arbitration decisions of the current year can't be used as precedents for later arb decisions.

don't want to say I categorically know that, but I thought I'd read it before.

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07-19-2004, 08:30 PM
  #85
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I just did and you are wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I'd have to look it up, but I think I've read before that arbitration decisions of the current year can't be used as precedents for later arb decisions.

don't want to say I categorically know that, but I thought I'd read it before.
Directly from the CBA.

In each League Year, the League and the
NHLPA shall agree on a Joint Exhibit setting forth the
Compensation terms contained in all then current contracts of
League players. The Joint Exhibit shall be completed by the
start of the NHL playoffs in that League Year and thereafter
updated on a rolling basis through and including June 20 of such
League Year. The Joint Exhibit shall then be utilized to
determine Average League Salary for such League Year. The Joint
Exhibit shall also be utilized by the League and the NHLPA to
create a second list by each July 1st (the "Comparable Exhibit")
setting forth the Compensation terms contained in all then
current contracts of those players eligible to be used as
comparables for the purposes of that year's salary arbitrations.
The parties may then use extracts from the Comparable Exhibit to
apprise the Arbitrators of the Compensation of those players
alleged by such party to be comparable to the player who is the
subject of the arbitration.The full Joint Exhibit and
Comparable Exhibit shall not be distributed to the Arbitrators.

The applicable section is below.

The Joint Exhibit and the Comparable Exhibit shall promptly be
updated to reflect the following:


(A) the issuance of a salary
arbitration decision;

(B) verified settlement of any salary
arbitration proceeding; and

(C) verified recent signings of any
other player.

The only way they can't use if if a decision comes down while they are meeting, any thing that can be verified even by conference call three hours before the meeting can be used.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 07-19-2004 at 08:38 PM.
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07-19-2004, 08:37 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Man you look at Mara's stats and he's a bit worse than Brew in terms of +/- but kills him in offensive production. At $1.5 million he is a killer comparable to Brew and he's the same age. As others have said - the last year of Brew's contract was silly and is way out of line given his age and performance. The fact that he's going arb now just make things worse. Brew is simply not worth any more than $2 million - and that's what I'd offer in arb.

Would you swap Brew for Mara? I'd consider it.........

If I'm Brewer, the comparables I want are- (03/4 salaries) - age differential compared to Brewer (WRT CBA - July 1):

Danny Markov - 2.9 mil - 2 years older

Tom Poti - 3.1 mil

Brian MacCabe -RFA - 3.5 mil last year - can you even use a "last year" salary, or would McCabe need to sign first? - 4 years older

If I'm Lowe:

Rhett Warrener (maybe - he's not a bad comparison for Smith either, I suppose, not great though) - 2.2 mil - 3 years older

Paul Mara - 1.5 mil - 1 year younger

Dan Boyle - 2.75 mil - 2 years older

Colin White - 2.25 mil - 1 year younger

Andrei Markov - 1.8 mil - same age

Nick Boynton - 1.75 mil - same age - statistically the closest comparison in most categories for Brewer, in terms of points, minutes, age, etc. Kills Brewer on +/-, but BOS is a better team (at least that's what I'd say if I'm Brewer's agent. It would be funny if the arbitrator gave Brewer a lower settlement than this, though I can't say I'd be expecting it. He's EDM's best comparable, that I've yet seen.

Brad Stuart - 2.5 mil - better stats, same salary

Robin Regher - 1.75 mil - 1 year younger, plays a couple less minutes a game, same as Boynton, 2 less a game than Brewer. Haven't checked it out, but that might be an indicator of nothing more than EDM's 6th D being worse/playing less than CAL's or BOS's. ???

Sami Salo - 1.68 mil - 4 years older

Radislav Suchy - 1.25 mil - 3 years older - not a great comparison, but certainly as valid as a guy like McCabe from the other side

Karel Rachunek - 1.5 mil - 1 year younger


McLaren is a weird comparable, he makes 2.5 mil, I guess Meehan would use him saying it's the same salary as Brewer and Brewer's been better historically, but mcLaren is coming off a pretty good year so perhaps Lowe would use that?

All in all, I like EDM's case better than Brewer's. but no doubt Spaz44 is right in that Brewer obviously at least thinks he has a case, otherwise he'd have signed the qualifier or else not elected to go to arb.


Last edited by speeds: 07-19-2004 at 08:55 PM.
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07-19-2004, 08:40 PM
  #87
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fair enough spazz, I thought I had read that somewhere, guess not.

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07-19-2004, 08:42 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
fair enough spazz, I thought I had read that somewhere, guess not.
No problem it was like me thinking that players could not be awarded less than their qualifying offer. You were the one that corrected me on that one.

I though I had read that somewhere too.

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07-19-2004, 09:32 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
If I'm Brewer, the comparables I want are- (03/4 salaries) - age differential compared to Brewer (WRT CBA - July 1):

Danny Markov - 2.9 mil - 2 years older

Tom Poti - 3.1 mil

Brian MacCabe -RFA - 3.5 mil last year - can you even use a "last year" salary, or would McCabe need to sign first? - 4 years older

If I'm Lowe:

Rhett Warrener (maybe - he's not a bad comparison for Smith either, I suppose, not great though) - 2.2 mil - 3 years older

Paul Mara - 1.5 mil - 1 year younger

Dan Boyle - 2.75 mil - 2 years older

Colin White - 2.25 mil - 1 year younger

Andrei Markov - 1.8 mil - same age

Nick Boynton - 1.75 mil - same age - statistically the closest comparison in most categories for Brewer, in terms of points, minutes, age, etc. Kills Brewer on +/-, but BOS is a better team (at least that's what I'd say if I'm Brewer's agent. It would be funny if the arbitrator gave Brewer a lower settlement than this, though I can't say I'd be expecting it. He's EDM's best comparable, that I've yet seen.

Brad Stuart - 2.5 mil - better stats, same salary

Robin Regher - 1.75 mil - 1 year younger, plays a couple less minutes a game, same as Boynton, 2 less a game than Brewer. Haven't checked it out, but that might be an indicator of nothing more than EDM's 6th D being worse/playing less than CAL's or BOS's. ???

Sami Salo - 1.68 mil - 4 years older

Radislav Suchy - 1.25 mil - 3 years older - not a great comparison, but certainly as valid as a guy like McCabe from the other side

Karel Rachunek - 1.5 mil - 1 year younger


McLaren is a weird comparable, he makes 2.5 mil, I guess Meehan would use him saying it's the same salary as Brewer and Brewer's been better historically, but mcLaren is coming off a pretty good year so perhaps Lowe would use that?

All in all, I like EDM's case better than Brewer's. but no doubt Spaz44 is right in that Brewer obviously at least thinks he has a case, otherwise he'd have signed the qualifier or else not elected to go to arb.
Yeah Markov is the only real comparable that Brew could use - but he's 3 years older. MacCabe's older and his numbers are just plain better. Poti was a dog this year but he almost got 50 points the year he got his big award. So none of these guys are great comparables. Yeah McLaren is a good one - but Brew makes the same salary and there are more guys with better numbers who are the same age as a Brew.

Really I think he's given Lowe a golden opportunity to reduce his salary and/or lock him up for a couple of years. So I look on this as a great low risk way of settling this contract on terms advantageous to the Oilers. No way I settle before the hearing - I would just offer up $2 million and see how it goes. For every comparable Brew has - Lowe can pull out 3 guys who make less. Damned if I can figure out why Brew filed - it seems crazy to me and I would die laughing if he got less and had to accept a 2 year deal.

What's the deal regarding the length of contracts settled at arb anyway? Does the team have a choice of 1 or 2 years or is it the players option?

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07-19-2004, 09:47 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Really I think he's given Lowe a golden opportunity to reduce his salary and/or lock him up for a couple of years. So I look on this as a great low risk way of settling this contract on terms advantageous to the Oilers. No way I settle before the hearing - I would just offer up $2 million and see how it goes. For every comparable Brew has - Lowe can pull out 3 guys who make less. Damned if I can figure out why Brew filed - it seems crazy to me and I would die laughing if he got less and had to accept a 2 year deal.

What's the deal regarding the length of contracts settled at arb anyway? Does the team have a choice of 1 or 2 years or is it the players option?
As far as I know, it's up to the team if they want a 1 or 2 year deal, but they have to specify before the hearing.

I think I'd start out at something like 1.9, but it depends how strong my case is when I really break down the stats. I wouldn't be afraid to get dirty in this hearing either.

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07-19-2004, 10:14 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
As far as I know, it's up to the team if they want a 1 or 2 year deal, but they have to specify before the hearing.

I think I'd start out at something like 1.9, but it depends how strong my case is when I really break down the stats. I wouldn't be afraid to get dirty in this hearing either.
Really....before the hearing? That's kind of strange but it may be worth it in this instance.

I agree with you on the dollar amount and on playing to win. Brew is a big boy and should know what he's getting into with an arb hearing - he really should not expect the Oilers to play nice when his agent is pitching spitballs.

All in all though - this represents an opportunity to lock the kid up for a couple of years at a reasonable rate IMHO. Much better then a long dragged-out negotiation and a possible hold-out. Still can't see where Brew's agent sees the advantage though

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07-19-2004, 10:22 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Really....before the hearing? That's kind of strange but it may be worth it in this instance.
sorry, my mistake, it's actually during the hearing they make this request, but what I meant was they aren't given 2 settlements, 1 and 2 years, and then allowed to pick one or the other.

If they pick one year the arb will prepare a one year settlement, if they pick 2 year, he'll only prepare a 2 year settlement.

I wonder how the psychology works here, if they go for a 2 year settlement while trying to give him a pay cut it looks like they're trying to tie him up longer term but not risk a good season, wonder what the arbitrator thinks of that, if anything?

I wonder if they'd have an easier time getting a lower settlement on a 1 year deal? In a 2 year deal the 2nd year is always higher than the 1st year (in every settlement I've seen), but I wonder if they'd make the 1st year salary higher on a 2 year deal than it would have been on a one year deal. Probably I suppose, maybe not?

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07-19-2004, 11:03 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
I don't know why Brewer is doing this, but it seems like awesome news to me.

Enjoy your paycut, Brewer, or so I'll hope

This should absolutely be a "gloves off" session, for this guy to go to arb and try to land more after the contract Lowe gave him last time is just a slap in Lowe's face.
I totally agree speeds. He hasn't had a very flattering couple of seasons. Very little progress for the big d-man that skates so swiftly but makes it look so easy. It's either real bad advice he's getting or he actually thinks he's worth it. Perhaps he puts alot of emphasis on all the minutes he gets. I feel it's too bad my team had to be in the situation that we had to use him that much...........and watch him progress.......marginally. And stop hitting. Thats what got everyone interested in him his first season here. Once every couple games......he would flatten someone.

Whenever I go off on Brewer everyone keeps reminding me how old he is. (I know) But he's played in the NHL for 6 seasons now. 404 regular season games. 34 goals, 79 assists, 113 points............and a +/- of -32

I feel Eric Brewer is one of the most overrated d-men in the league. I would be excited to see what Lowe could get for him. But he would have to be a d-man that could take some minutes.

Someone earlier mentioned trying to get someone back for a Brewer and Isbister trade. 2.5 mil and 1.9 mil = 4.5 mil/season. 2 big stiffs gone.

Kevin phone Milbury and get Janne back......obviously Mike wouldn't want Isbister back though. But perhaps Brewer coming back would interest him. Everyone seems to still think he's great. Or was Mike that far ahead of us all?

I think this arb idea is great! The cuts will run deep and Lowe will start shopping him. I honestly think Kevin could really shaft someone out there with Brewer.

HELLO GANG!

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07-19-2004, 11:06 PM
  #94
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Good to read a g2k post again.

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07-20-2004, 01:11 AM
  #95
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Originally Posted by gretzky2kurri
HELLO GANG!
Hello yourself. It's been a while.

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07-20-2004, 01:24 AM
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I thought I felt a sense of foreboding...that must mean a G2K sighting.

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07-20-2004, 01:35 AM
  #97
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Your new avatar is sad.

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07-20-2004, 08:42 AM
  #98
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thinking about it a bit more, if current arb decisions are aavailable as comparisons, then the following guys might act as comparables as well, depending of course on their awards:

VanRyn
Hannan
Kubina
Rachunek - nhlpa says he's signed, tsn lists him as headed for arb, is nhlpa wrong here, or has he resigned and it hasn't been changed yet on TSN?
Witt
Sarich
McCabe
Kaberle

Kubina is probably the best match in terms of overall game for Brewer, it'll be interesting to see which guy goes first/signs first.

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07-20-2004, 02:05 PM
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Some Arb Dates:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...tacodalogin=no


VanRyn -???
Hannan - Aug 8
Kubina - ???
Rachunek - nhlpa says he's signed, tsn lists him as headed for arb, is nhlpa wrong here, or has he resigned and it hasn't been changed yet on TSN?

above article says he's come to terms with NYR already, I'm guessing at the 1.5 mil listed at on nhlpa.com? Good news, because this recent signing is one Lowe can use nicely to show teh market is changing, vs. Meehan's argument that McCabe is a comparable. Lowe can say the market has changed since the McCabe signed the deal that paid him 3.5 last year, and that's if McCabe is even a decent comparable which Lowe will say he isn't.

Witt - ???
Sarich - ???
McCabe - Aug 7
Kaberle - Aug 13

Kubina is probably the best match in terms of overall game for Brewer, it'll be interesting to see which guy goes first/signs first.


Last edited by speeds: 07-20-2004 at 02:17 PM.
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07-20-2004, 03:38 PM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
Some Arb Dates:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...tacodalogin=no


VanRyn -???
Hannan - Aug 8
Kubina - ???
Rachunek - nhlpa says he's signed, tsn lists him as headed for arb, is nhlpa wrong here, or has he resigned and it hasn't been changed yet on TSN?

above article says he's come to terms with NYR already, I'm guessing at the 1.5 mil listed at on nhlpa.com? Good news, because this recent signing is one Lowe can use nicely to show teh market is changing, vs. Meehan's argument that McCabe is a comparable. Lowe can say the market has changed since the McCabe signed the deal that paid him 3.5 last year, and that's if McCabe is even a decent comparable which Lowe will say he isn't.

Witt - ???
Sarich - ???
McCabe - Aug 7
Kaberle - Aug 13

Kubina is probably the best match in terms of overall game for Brewer, it'll be interesting to see which guy goes first/signs first.
Didn't someone mention that Meehan will want Hannan to go after Brewer.

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