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Thrashers to Winnipeg: done deal

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Old
05-26-2011, 07:27 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
I disagree. They will have the lowest capacity, and hence, probably some of the stiffest prices for tickets. For one, I bet there will be a big demand for the tickets, and two, to make up for that discrepancy in seats, the ownership will hike the prices a bit.



More than 20 teams average over 16,000 fans a game? You got a source for that?
You might be right, but with less potential ticket purchasers you are also treading a thin line if you overprice your tickets. They'll likely be in line with what people are paying in Edmonton/Calgary/Ottawa (60$/60$/56$ on average respectively). Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver is 114$/82$/65$ respectively.

I do have a source, as a matter of fact.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance

Enjoy.


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05-26-2011, 07:42 PM
  #127
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I highly doubt boston would be moved to many epic games between the habs and bruins and also leafs and bruins. My guess is buffalo, but would boston really like to be in an all canadian division?
I would imagine that Buffalo would want to be in the same division as Toronto too.

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05-26-2011, 08:06 PM
  #128
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What it comes down to is: Sure, those markets are much larger, but the percentage of fans actually interested in the game is extremely low in comparison to Winnipeg/Canada.

Seattle still needs to build an arena, to me this is a logical destination in the future for the NHL. It's proximity to Canada and the potential rivalry with the Californian teams and Vancouver is definitely of interest.

The NHL should do more to grow the game down there, support minor hockey programs and promote promote promote. It's the only way they'll get into the niche, and even then... It can often take generations to break into a market that isn't interested, how many of us are into the game of hockey because either our Father/Family or Friends we're? There is correlation there.. It takes a long time to grow interest in a non-traditional sport. Americans (especially southern) will always look at Football (NFL, NCAA), MLB, NBA, Nascar before hockey. It's tradition.
I agree, and the league has bigger issues to worry about than to set aside millions and YEARS in promoting the game within a market to hopefully have convinced an investor to invest in a team and an arena.

Yes, Winnipeg is boring and cold, and probably very ugly too... but it's a Canadian city with a population of 750K so it's the perfect market to expand the NHL to.

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05-26-2011, 08:47 PM
  #129
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Yes, Winnipeg is boring and cold, and probably very ugly too... but it's a Canadian city with a population of 750K so it's the perfect market to expand the NHL to.
Just my 2 cents, I love Winnipeg. I travel across Canada every few months, and it's often my favorite stop. Folks there are a bit crazy, in a good way. I get more of a Montreal type vibe there than I do in Toronto, Vancouver or Calgary.

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05-26-2011, 08:58 PM
  #130
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To further elaborate on my earlier post on ticket prices and the market of Winnipeg in general....

In 2009-2010 the average ticket price for a Thrashers game was 46$, The average attendence for the season was 13,600 spectators. They had an operating loss of 8M. Average gate with this formula would work out to 625 600$ per game.

If Winnipeg follows a similar price structure as Ottawa (similar market size) the average ticket price should come in around 56$. The arena current capacity for hockey is 15 015 (Wiki). Average gate with this formula would work out to 840 840$ per game. This is 215 240$ more per game in gate receipts, not including the extra earned on concessions and other things like parking. This works out to a 8 824 840$ per year difference. There is other things to consider like tax rates and what not, one thing that will hurt profits for Winnipeg next season surely is the travelling to the SE division as their home division, so the first year results should be disregarded entirely. That being said, Winnipeg is likely to generate considerably more in local sponsorships, merchandising sales and likely in local TV deals.

Of course, I am forecasting a sellout every game for Winnipeg... This could very well not happen, but I am banking on it. I'm confident in it. It makes perfect sense in today's economic climate where the Canadian dollar is at par. You reserve the trend to 2001 levels where the dollar is .61 cents to a Greenback and I will fully concede that a market like Winnipeg is not-viable.

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05-26-2011, 09:35 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by JGRB View Post
To further elaborate on my earlier post on ticket prices and the market of Winnipeg in general....

In 2009-2010 the average ticket price for a Thrashers game was 46$, The average attendence for the season was 13,600 spectators. They had an operating loss of 8M. Average gate with this formula would work out to 625 600$ per game.

If Winnipeg follows a similar price structure as Ottawa (similar market size) the average ticket price should come in around 56$. The arena current capacity for hockey is 15 015 (Wiki). Average gate with this formula would work out to 840 840$ per game. This is 215 240$ more per game in gate receipts, not including the extra earned on concessions and other things like parking. This works out to a 8 824 840$ per year difference. There is other things to consider like tax rates and what not, one thing that will hurt profits for Winnipeg next season surely is the travelling to the SE division as their home division, so the first year results should be disregarded entirely. That being said, Winnipeg is likely to generate considerably more in local sponsorships, merchandising sales and likely in local TV deals.

Of course, I am forecasting a sellout every game for Winnipeg... This could very well not happen, but I am banking on it. I'm confident in it. It makes perfect sense in today's economic climate where the Canadian dollar is at par. You reserve the trend to 2001 levels where the dollar is .61 cents to a Greenback and I will fully concede that a market like Winnipeg is not-viable.
Attendance is only a tiny part of the pie. The analysis here is overly simplistic.

The real dough is in luxury boxes and corporate sponsorship (advertising). These should, in theory, be much better in Winnipeg than Atlanta. Both tend to follow attendance (if no one goes to games, it's harder to demand high prices for ads), but neither are directly related to it.

Also, where on Earth did you read Atlanta lost $8-million? Every media report had it well over $20-million.

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05-26-2011, 09:48 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Lucius View Post
Attendance is only a tiny part of the pie. The analysis here is overly simplistic.

The real dough is in luxury boxes and corporate sponsorship (advertising). These should, in theory, be much better in Winnipeg than Atlanta. Both tend to follow attendance (if no one goes to games, it's harder to demand high prices for ads), but neither are directly related to it.

Also, where on Earth did you read Atlanta lost $8-million? Every media report had it well over $20-million.
Forbes. See: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/31/...rs_317422.html

I realise it's simplistic, it was never meant to be a business model. But attendence is a big piece of the pie, considering the operating loss can be wiped out just by the gate receipts alone is encouraging... If the Forbes numbers can be deemed as correct.

Your right about luxury boxes and corporate sponsorship, it should in theory be as good or better in Winnipeg, because of the reasons we are alluding too... The "Jets" will be the hottest ticket in town/province and business will be interested in getting their names up in there. Thrashers we're an after-thought in Atlanta/Georgia.

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05-26-2011, 10:37 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by JGRB View Post
Forbes. See: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/31/...rs_317422.html

I realise it's simplistic, it was never meant to be a business model. But attendence is a big piece of the pie, considering the operating loss can be wiped out just by the gate receipts alone is encouraging... If the Forbes numbers can be deemed as correct.

Your right about luxury boxes and corporate sponsorship, it should in theory be as good or better in Winnipeg, because of the reasons we are alluding too... The "Jets" will be the hottest ticket in town/province and business will be interested in getting their names up in there. Thrashers we're an after-thought in Atlanta/Georgia.
Fair enough, but I am not so confident in the Forbes numbers. If the real losses were $8 million, the Thrashers wouldn't be this desperate. You can turn that around.

I think the team will definitely be fine in the short term in Winnipeg. The worry is that it completely and totally depends on the Canadian dollar.

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05-26-2011, 10:42 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by JGRB View Post
Forbes. See: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/31/...rs_317422.html

I realise it's simplistic, it was never meant to be a business model. But attendence is a big piece of the pie, considering the operating loss can be wiped out just by the gate receipts alone is encouraging... If the Forbes numbers can be deemed as correct.

Your right about luxury boxes and corporate sponsorship, it should in theory be as good or better in Winnipeg, because of the reasons we are alluding too... The "Jets" will be the hottest ticket in town/province and business will be interested in getting their names up in there. Thrashers we're an after-thought in Atlanta/Georgia.

To add to your point, True North Entertainment is planning an expansion of 2500 seats (source Agence QMI), which they should easily fill.


My theory is that the expirement of bringing back a team of a lost Canadian market into the new cap structure and revenue sharing, will be so good as to prompt the league to do the same with Quebec.

Both cities are sure to get a minimum of 5 seasons with almost complete attendance, if not more.

Considering the losses in $ for both teams right now and the strenght of the CND compared to the USD, this would only be good for the league. Not to mention that ratings are much better here in Canada than in the US.

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05-26-2011, 10:46 PM
  #135
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Fair enough, but I am not so confident in the Forbes numbers. If the real losses were $8 million, the Thrashers wouldn't be this desperate. You can turn that around.

I think the team will definitely be fine in the short term in Winnipeg. The worry is that it completely and totally depends on the Canadian dollar.
The cap structure, bigger population and the lesson learned (always go to games), would easily counter a weaker CND... it's not the 90's.

And anyway, most experts see the CND keeping its lead on the USD in the foreseeable future.

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05-26-2011, 10:48 PM
  #136
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To add to your point, True North Entertainment is planning an expansion of 2500 seats (source Agence QMI), which they should easily fill.


My theory is that the expirement of bringing back a team of a lost Canadian market into the new cap structure and revenue sharing, will be so good as to prompt the league to do the same with Quebec.

Both cities are sure to get a minimum of 5 seasons with almost complete attendance, if not more.

Considering the losses in $ for both teams right now and the strenght of the CND compared to the USD, this would only be good for the league. Not to mention that ratings are much better here in Canada than in the US.
Part of the issue of Quebec leaving was Montreal didn't have to compete as hard for province's fans. I think their competitivness declined partly when the Nordiques moved in the 90s.

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05-26-2011, 10:54 PM
  #137
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The cap structure, bigger population and the lesson learned (always go to games), would easily counter a weaker CND... it's not the 90's.

And anyway, most experts see the CND keeping its lead on the USD in the foreseeable future.
Hopefully so, but the dollar is a bigger factor than you think.

Bottom line: Most expenses (salaries) are in USD and most income is in Canadian dollars.

If the dollar went from roughly par to say 75 cents, then a Jets team spending to the cap is going to cost them $15 million extra per year. They just cannot overcome that, especially when you consider that if their revenues are around $60 million, that suddenly gets transformed into $45.

Seriously think about that. With $60 million in payrolll and $60 million in revenue... a 25 cent swing in the dollar takes them from break even to a $30 million dollar loss.

The numbers are WAY bigger than they were in the 90s.

If the dollar swings for a prolonged period of time, Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto could be the only teams left.

I think you're right though for the short term, but even a small shift in the dollar is going to have massive effects on the NHL. This growth in revenue since the lockout perfectly mirrors the dollar. That bubble could just as easily burst.

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05-26-2011, 11:03 PM
  #138
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What it comes down to is: Sure, those markets are much larger, but the percentage of fans actually interested in the game is extremely low in comparison to Winnipeg/Canada.

Seattle still needs to build an arena, to me this is a logical destination in the future for the NHL. It's proximity to Canada and the potential rivalry with the Californian teams and Vancouver is definitely of interest.

The NHL should do more to grow the game down there, support minor hockey programs and promote promote promote. It's the only way they'll get into the niche, and even then... It can often take generations to break into a market that isn't interested, how many of us are into the game of hockey because either our Father/Family or Friends we're? There is correlation there.. It takes a long time to grow interest in a non-traditional sport. Americans (especially southern) will always look at Football (NFL, NCAA), MLB, NBA, Nascar before hockey. It's tradition.
I don't know why that market hasn't been tested yet.

Some of the markets which would be ready to take a team, have already failed as hockey markets, while Seattle hasn't seen elite pro hockey since the early 20th century and seems more suited for the sport.

Some people don't like the idea of Utah, but Salt Lake IMO might be a much better fit than Kansas City or Vegas.

The West with cities like SD, SLC, San Antonio, Portland and Seattle, seems ripe for the picking compared to central-US with destinations like KC, Cleveland, Houston, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and Cincinnati, seeing how much trouble teams like Columbus and Dallas have and to some extent Nashville too.

EDIT: Just saw on RIS that Bill Daly has met with some people in Seattle for a relocation.


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05-26-2011, 11:13 PM
  #139
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Hopefully so, but the dollar is a bigger factor than you think.

Bottom line: Most expenses (salaries) are in USD and most income is in Canadian dollars.

If the dollar went from roughly par to say 75 cents, then a Jets team spending to the cap is going to cost them $15 million extra per year. They just cannot overcome that, especially when you consider that if their revenues are around $60 million, that suddenly gets transformed into $45.

Seriously think about that. With $60 million in payrolll and $60 million in revenue... a 25 cent swing in the dollar takes them from break even to a $30 million dollar loss.

The numbers are WAY bigger than they were in the 90s.

If the dollar swings for a prolonged period of time, Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto could be the only teams left.

I think you're right though for the short term, but even a small shift in the dollar is going to have massive effects on the NHL. This growth in revenue since the lockout perfectly mirrors the dollar. That bubble could just as easily burst.
The CND just doesn't go from 102 to 75 like that.

The US economy would have to come back way up and the CND way down for that to happen... why do you think Bettman is finally giving up and sending the teams back to Canada? The US economy is nowhere near recovery. It'll take at least 10 years if not 20, and that's if they don't go and ****-up home owners again.

Their situation is still precarious, and they keep losing ground because the USD has been devalued too much.

Read this :

http://economics.about.com/od/exchan...s_canadian.htm

"From the statistics gathered in this article, it’s clear that the huge jump in the Canadian Dollar relative to the American Dollar over the last six months is due to both the Canadian Dollar appreciating on world foreign exchange markets and the U.S. Dollar falling in value."

The USD isn't close to come back up, so even if the CND's value goes down some, it will still be strong compared to the USD.

I don't think Winnipeg will have to worry. Compared to Atlanta, their situation seems much better, considering it is a hockey market and will get plenty of TV ratings and fans at the arena every night.

Oh, and there's always the revenue sharing, and the 2500 seats they want to add.


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05-26-2011, 11:55 PM
  #140
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The CND just doesn't go from 102 to 75 like that.

The US economy would have to come back way up and the CND way down for that to happen... why do you think Bettman is finally giving up and sending the teams back to Canada? The US economy is nowhere near recovery. It'll take at least 10 years if not 20, and that's if they don't go and ****-up home owners again.

Their situation is still precarious, and they keep losing ground because the USD has been devalued too much.

Read this :

http://economics.about.com/od/exchan...s_canadian.htm

"From the statistics gathered in this article, itís clear that the huge jump in the Canadian Dollar relative to the American Dollar over the last six months is due to both the Canadian Dollar appreciating on world foreign exchange markets and the U.S. Dollar falling in value."

The USD isn't close to come back up, so even if the CND's value goes down some, it will still be strong compared to the USD.

I don't think Winnipeg will have to worry. Compared to Atlanta, their situation seems much better, considering it is a hockey market and will get plenty of TV ratings and fans at the arena every night.

Oh, and there's always the revenue sharing, and the 2500 seats they want to add.
Agree. Plus, how much will new merchandise generate? Irregardless of whether the team is renamed the Jets or something else, it is safe to say that memorabilia would sell huge for the first few years. My only fear is that players won't want to sign there because it is Winnipeg. That may de-rail the team faster than anything, including currency.

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05-27-2011, 12:22 AM
  #141
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Atlanta serves as an incubator for teams that migrate to Western Canada (first the Flames, now the Thrashers). These moves are annoying because they necessitate realigning divisions and conferences. I say keep Winnipeg in the Southeast division after the move. Who cares about their logistical problems in playing 32 games in the East? Tough love, I say. On the other hand, it would be easier for the Habs to get to Winnipeg twice a season than to Atlanta because they would remain within Canada while doing so.

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05-27-2011, 12:32 AM
  #142
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I highly doubt boston would be moved to many epic games between the habs and bruins and also leafs and bruins. My guess is buffalo, but would boston really like to be in an all canadian division?
Aren't names of teams, cities and countries supposed to be capitalized?

What a school system.

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05-27-2011, 05:36 AM
  #143
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Hopefully so, but the dollar is a bigger factor than you think.

Bottom line: Most expenses (salaries) are in USD and most income is in Canadian dollars.

If the dollar went from roughly par to say 75 cents, then a Jets team spending to the cap is going to cost them $15 million extra per year. They just cannot overcome that, especially when you consider that if their revenues are around $60 million, that suddenly gets transformed into $45.

Seriously think about that. With $60 million in payrolll and $60 million in revenue... a 25 cent swing in the dollar takes them from break even to a $30 million dollar loss.

The numbers are WAY bigger than they were in the 90s.

If the dollar swings for a prolonged period of time, Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto could be the only teams left.

I think you're right though for the short term, but even a small shift in the dollar is going to have massive effects on the NHL. This growth in revenue since the lockout perfectly mirrors the dollar. That bubble could just as easily burst.
No one is disputing that, Lucius.

I even conceded in one of my posts that if the dollar went back down to levels seen in the early 2000s that a team in Winnipeg wouldn't be viable financially. Most financial experts do not see this happening in the near future though, we have a lot of safe haven resources that our economy can/is falling back on. That is something the USA does not have, and it's the primary reason why we've managed to do so well all things considered.

Anything can happen, we could all be wrong and you could be very well right. But I think we all agree for the short-term it's an option worth trying.

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05-27-2011, 06:46 AM
  #144
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yay Canada

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05-27-2011, 07:33 AM
  #145
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Okay...

The MTSC holds 15000(ish) people. The owner (Mark Chipman) has been on the record saying the arena is not easily and cheaply expandable, and will not be doing anything of the sort. The arena size is appropriate for the market size.

They will also be a middle of the road team, in terms of cap spending.

With everything all in he figures the would be about 80-90 million dollars a year in hockey renevues.

If all goes to plan.

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05-27-2011, 08:24 AM
  #146
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I conjecture that Columbus will be moved to the East to replace Atlanta. How thrilling!

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05-27-2011, 10:05 AM
  #147
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How about Winnipeg and Nashville just swapping divisions?

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05-27-2011, 10:40 AM
  #148
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Okay...

the MTSC holds 15000(ish) people. The owner (Mark Chipman) has been on the record saying the arena is not easily and cheaply expandable, and will not be doing anything of the sort. The arena size is appropriate for the market size.

They will also be a middle of the road team, in terms of cap spending.

With everything all in he figures the would be about 80-90 million dollars a year in hockey renevues.

If all goes to plan.
So how long before the Winnipeg owners go to local levels of government asking for funding for a new stadium ala the Oilers to remain viable?

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05-27-2011, 10:41 AM
  #149
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How about Winnipeg and Nashville just swapping divisions?
This seems like a good solution... I like it.

Although the NHL will probably do something crazy. The NHL is like a monarchy from the 1400's. Bettman and his court are the only people with a divine right to make those kind of calls.

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05-27-2011, 11:50 AM
  #150
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Does this mean the name of the team and everything will be settled by the training camp ?

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