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Joffrey Lupul Next Season

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Old
05-26-2011, 01:44 PM
  #26
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I'll be conservative and say 20 is good for a start.
I don't know if he'll be hurt or not.

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05-26-2011, 01:46 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by gabeliscious View Post
i think he has the potential to be a 30-30 guy however id be satisfied if he could hit 20 goals and 30 assists. i think that is reasonable playing top 6 minutes with some pp time.
Pretty much what I am expecting too.

He should be considered a lock for 20 goals. He was on pace for 25 in his time as a leaf last year. I know pace isn't worth much, and it's a small sample size. But remember all the chances he had in his first few games that didn't go in? He has been even better as a Leaf than the numbers show.

Not to mention how much potential there is if we get a #1C. If Burke gets this team a top playmaker for that line, then Lupul could have a chance to put a lot of pucks in the net.

Imagine this team with two 30~ish goal scorers on both the first and second line!

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05-26-2011, 01:53 PM
  #28
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Well lets look at this from a Team perspective and bang for your buck $$ in a cap World, irregardless of the unknown center as of today.

Lupul is the Leafs 2nd highest paid forward bringing in $4.25 mil per in cap hit to the team. That means he is being paid like a #3-4 forward league wide.

Therefore he is likely to play on the top line with Kessel and based on his salary should be putting up 25-30-55 points minimum. So as the team gets more competitive his remuneration should be a reflection on his contribution made to the team. Good Cup competitive teams don't have the luxury of paying out high salaries without getting production worthy of it, without it affecting the team negatively in the big picture.

In comparison Kulemin playing on the 2nd line at 1/2 the $$ is producing 30-27-57 points. While Grabs at $2.9 mil recorded 29-29-58 points.
At the end of the day this doesn't really matter at all. Every team has one or two players who were slightly overpaid. See Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet, Cam Barker, and Kris Versteeg last year for Chicago.

If Lupul puts up 50 points this year playing 1st line minutes he'll be playing on par with his contract. It's not completely about stats but also the minutes the player is giving you combined with the intangibles and other good things on the ice he does.

4.25 million for the next two years is not a crippling contract by any standards. By the time everything is said and done once Kulemin's contract expires and he is resigned, and a #1 C is signed. Combined with the possible signing of FA's and emergence of our young players earning contracts, lupul could very easily be the 4th or 5th highest paid forward on the team two years from now (when this team is expected to be not only a playoff team but a contender).

And if you're trying to smash Burke for trading for him, I can easily reverse it and commend our GM for the wonderful job he did signing Grabo and Kulie to great contracts below their actual worth.

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05-26-2011, 02:03 PM
  #29
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We need to stop putting expectations/predications on players. This is where it goes entirely wrong, and on top of that, they are mostly wrong.

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05-26-2011, 02:03 PM
  #30
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20-25 goals, 20-30 assists is good.

If he plays with Phil all next season I could see 55+ pts and 23 goals.

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05-26-2011, 02:08 PM
  #31
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depends who burke gets to play between him and kessel, really.

if he can land a solid 2nd line type center with decent passing ability, i'd say he's good for 50-60 points. 20-25 goals, maybe a few more if he can get on a hot streak.

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05-26-2011, 02:09 PM
  #32
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I expect him to get traded before July 1.....

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05-26-2011, 02:14 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
We need to stop putting expectations/predications on players. This is where it goes entirely wrong, and on top of that, they are mostly wrong.
What, exacty, goes entirely wrong when people make predictions?

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05-26-2011, 02:16 PM
  #34
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Not to bee too optimistic, since I know that is frowned upon on here, but.....

He had come off an injury which kept him from playing hockey or even training for nearly 1.5 years.

Before he came to Toronto, he had only played about 25 games and that was a limited role which lowered his confidence and swagger.

When he was drafted #7 overall he HIGHLY looked upon as a prospect and lived up to expectations in goal scoring in almost every season other than Edmonton.

He is only 27 years old.

Lupul joined a struggling team and had 28 games to develop any sort of chemistry.

In his 28 games, his C was a rookie named Bozak.

In those 28 games, he had a pace for 26G, 26A 52P.

After a fully healthy summer of training, an upgrade at C, an improving 23 year old Kessel, and time to feel like a part of the Leafs and develop further chemistry....

WHY can't this guy do at least 30G 30A?

I don't get people who act like a 20G, 25A is likely?

He was better than that in the 28 games last year with all of the issues which went against him.

I fully expect a 27 year old Lupul to set career highs in G,A,P this season.

This guy can play and he knows how to score goals.

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05-26-2011, 02:26 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
What are people expecting to get out of Joffrey Lupul next season?

He has a career high of 28 goals, and his best production per game came in 07-08 with 20 goals and 46 points in 56 games. He scored 9 goals and 9 assists in 28 games with us last season, after missing significant time in Anaheim from a back surgery.

He will likely play with Kessel again next season, as he played well with him this year creating space and being physical.

So give some predictions. How many goals do you think he will score? Will he stay on Kessels line? Will he remain healthy the whole season? How much would he benefit if we landed a top playmaking center?
What if we move him to Center...

Leino - Lupul - Kessel

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05-26-2011, 02:34 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by tpc77 View Post
Not to bee too optimistic, since I know that is frowned upon on here, but.....

He had come off an injury which kept him from playing hockey or even training for nearly 1.5 years.

Before he came to Toronto, he had only played about 25 games and that was a limited role which lowered his confidence and swagger.

When he was drafted #7 overall he HIGHLY looked upon as a prospect and lived up to expectations in goal scoring in almost every season other than Edmonton.

He is only 27 years old.

Lupul joined a struggling team and had 28 games to develop any sort of chemistry.

In his 28 games, his C was a rookie named Bozak.

In those 28 games, he had a pace for 26G, 26A 52P.

After a fully healthy summer of training, an upgrade at C, an improving 23 year old Kessel, and time to feel like a part of the Leafs and develop further chemistry....

WHY can't this guy do at least 30G 30A?

I don't get people who act like a 20G, 25A is likely?

He was better than that in the 28 games last year with all of the issues which went against him.

I fully expect a 27 year old Lupul to set career highs in G,A,P this season.

This guy can play and he knows how to score goals.
Nothing wrong with being optimistic, however, don't confuse optimism with living in a fantasy world.

I completely agree with you that he has shown heart by coming back from serious injuries and producing at the level he did last season on a less than ideal situation.

He's always been a guy who showed he can play with heart...when he feels like. I just feel over an 82gm schedule, he disappears for long stretches. Don't know if it's motivation issues or if injuries cause this, but he's never been able to keep his compete level high for very long. Here's to hoping that's different this year...if he isn't traded by beginning of the season...

I hope he gets 30G and 30A, but that's not what my brain is telling me is going to happen...

And for the record I think he'll set career highs in Goals and Assists, not Points....

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05-26-2011, 02:38 PM
  #37
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He's weak defensively, but he's good at cycling and finishes his check. He's a good fit with Kessel, and I think he'll score at least 20 goals and 25
Assists, could be more, probably won't be less barring injuries though. I also think he'll be a -15 or lower if bozak is our #1 center again...

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05-26-2011, 02:39 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by tony135420 View Post
Nothing wrong with being optimistic, however, don't confuse optimism with living in a fantasy world.

I completely agree with you that he has shown heart by coming back from serious injuries and producing at the level he did last season on a less than ideal situation.

He's always been a guy who showed he can play with heart...when he feels like. I just feel over an 82gm schedule, he disappears for long stretches. Don't know if it's motivation issues or if injuries cause this, but he's never been able to keep his compete level high for very long. Here's to hoping that's different this year...if he isn't traded by beginning of the season...

I hope he gets 30G and 30A, but that's not what my brain is telling me is going to happen...

And for the record I think he'll set career highs in Goals and Assists, not Points....

Well, I must admit, I have never watched him play close to 82 games in one season!

FYI, I don't think there is a single player who is on top of their game for 82 games, they are humans after all.

However, his numbers suggest he doesn't necessarily "disappear" for long stretches. He has had great PPG paces over his career, he just seems to have injury issues.

I think being healthy is key. However, if motivation is an issue, Toronto is probably at the top of the league in terms of a team to play for and easily become motivated for each game. ( Hockey night in Canada, atmosphere in TO etc.)

Let's just say, it's A LOT easier than getting up for games in Anaheim when people don't really care as much, it feels like summer outside, and no one is talking about the hockey team.

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05-26-2011, 02:44 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Well lets look at this from a Team perspective and bang for your buck $$ in a cap World, irregardless of the unknown center as of today.

Lupul is the Leafs 2nd highest paid forward bringing in $4.25 mil per in cap hit to the team. That means he is being paid like a #3-4 forward league wide.

Therefore he is likely to play on the top line with Kessel and based on his salary should be putting up 25-30-55 points minimum. So as the team gets more competitive his remuneration should be a reflection on his contribution made to the team. Good Cup competitive teams don't have the luxury of paying out high salaries without getting production worthy of it, without it affecting the team negatively in the big picture.

In comparison Kulemin playing on the 2nd line at 1/2 the $$ is producing 30-27-57 points. While Grabs at $2.9 mil recorded 29-29-58 points.
If his play directly increases his linemates production as others suggest then he should get credit for his linemates production at a discounted price.

Edit: I'll go 25g 30a LOL I guess I'm expeccting the min.

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05-26-2011, 02:48 PM
  #40
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If Lupul puts up 50 points this year playing 1st line minutes he'll be playing on par with his contract. It's not completely about stats but also the minutes the player is giving you combined with the intangibles and other good things on the ice he does.

4.25 million for the next two years is not a crippling contract by any standards. By the time everything is said and done once Kulemin's contract expires and he is resigned, and a #1 C is signed. Combined with the possible signing of FA's and emergence of our young players earning contracts, lupul could very easily be the 4th or 5th highest paid forward on the team two years from now (when this team is expected to be not only a playoff team but a contender)..
$4.25 mil is not crippling at all if the player is producing at a rate worthy of that pay, which was exactly my point in the first place, by the method I used to determine that.

Besides your own expectation of 50+ points and my 55 point approximation are in the very same point production range. So where do you see the problem here, when you yourself claim those totals are playing on par to the contract?

However you had better do the Math and consider the salary Cap consequences of that last thought process of Lupul potentially being the 5th highest paid forward in time. Can you name many Cup competitive teams who have their 5th highest paid forward making + $4.25 mil?

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05-26-2011, 02:52 PM
  #41
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he'll probably produce something in line with what he's done before. 20-25g, 50ish points. I wouldn't automatically assume he'll be playing kessel quite yet though.

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05-26-2011, 02:54 PM
  #42
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I expect roughly 25 goals and 25-30 assists from Lupul, he definitely has it in him to get more.

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05-26-2011, 03:05 PM
  #43
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If his play directly increases his linemates production as others suggest then he should get credit for his linemates production at a discounted price.

Edit: I'll go 25g 30a LOL I guess I'm expecting the min.
Example a top line $$$:

Lupul $4.25 mil + Richards $7-8 mil + Kessel $5.5 mil = ~$18 mil of a $60 mil Team Salary Cap = 30% or nearly 1/3 of your teams total salary Cap tied up in only 3 players one of which the player in question Lupul.

Your remaining 20 players (9 forwards, 6 dmen, 2 goalies + 3 spares) on your 23 man roster can now only account for the 2/3 balance remaining.

So as you can see 3 players invested @ 1/3 cap cost + 20 players = 2/3 cost than those 3 players better be highly productive and if Lupul is one of those 3 players he better increase his linemates production significantly as that line will be relied on to carry the team.

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05-26-2011, 03:12 PM
  #44
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he'll probably produce something in line with what he's done before. 20-25g, 50ish points. I wouldn't automatically assume he'll be playing kessel quite yet though.
If we get Richards I wouldn't mind seeing him and Kulemin switch spots, Kulemin-Richards-Kessel just screams elite to me.
This also bumps Lupul to his natural RW position, and if I remember correctly him and Macarthur are good friends since the junior days, I'm sure they'd like to play together. Lupul and Kulemin are similar players too, I think you would see equal production as last year.

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05-26-2011, 03:14 PM
  #45
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$4.25 mil is not crippling at all if the player is producing at a rate worthy of that pay, which was exactly my point in the first place, by the method I used to determine that.

Besides your own expectation of 50+ points and my 55 point approximation are in the very same point production range. So where do you see the problem here, when you yourself claim those totals are playing on par to the contract?

However you had better do the Math and consider the salary Cap consequences of that last thought process of Lupul potentially being the 5th highest paid forward in time. Can you name many Cup competitive teams who have their 5th highest paid forward making + $4.25 mil?
Of course 50 and 55 are in the same range. Thats what Lupul has shown in the past he can do. No reason to expect with 1st line minutes he wouldn't be able to put up a 50pt season.

You suggested that from a cap perspective Lupul's contract is too big, I'm trying to point out that at 50pts he's not going to be a contract that is a burden on the team.

And of COURSE anyone not putting up points is a bad contract. Heatley was a bad contract this year as a 1st line winger for example. Thats not a good argument to make. Nothing is crippling if the player is producing worth his pay.

As for the last part (note that I said 4 or 5, not "5"):

Philly: Hartnell #4 @ 4.2
Wash: Arnott #4 @ 4.5
San Jose: Pavelski #4 @ 4
Pitt: Staal #4 @ 4
Boston: Horton & Ryder #4 and 5 @ 4 mill each
Anaheim: Selanne #4 @ 4.5 & Blake # 5 @ 4
LA: Handzus #4 @ 4
MTL: Gionta #4 @ 5 mill
Tampa: Malone @ 4.5 (# 5 is Stamkos @ 3.75)

Every one of those teams was a playoff team and paying their 4 or 5th highest player 4 million or higher. Lupul is as good as some of those guys, better than a couple too. So really it's not out of the realm of possibility for that to be the case in two years for the leafs. And with a few exceptions those guys are all producing in the range of 50-60pts give or take.

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05-26-2011, 03:14 PM
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Example a top line $$$:

Lupul $4.25 mil + Richards $7-8 mil + Kessel $5.5 mil = ~$18 mil of a $60 mil Team Salary Cap = 30% or nearly 1/3 of your teams total salary Cap tied up in only 3 players one of which the player in question Lupul.

Your remaining 20 players (9 forwards, 6 dmen, 2 goalies + 3 spares) on your 23 man roster can now only account for the 2/3 balance remaining.

So as you can see 3 players invested @ 1/3 cap cost + 20 players = 2/3 cost than those 3 players better be highly productive and if Lupul is one of those 3 players he better increase his linemates production significantly as that line will be relied on to carry the team.
No one carries a roster of 23 players these days, 19 or 20 is more like it.

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05-26-2011, 03:28 PM
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Dude, he has been traded for Pronger twice. The only time he was traded for production was in Edmonton where it was a bad fit. He is anything else but lazy. I would have traded Beauchemin for him straight up without even thinking about it. That we got Gardiner too made it into a steal.

Don't confuse injuries with laziness
First trade... because of "potential"
second trade... because of Cap

He is lazy... read up on the boards of the teams he has played for.. they all say he is lazy and floats.

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05-26-2011, 03:30 PM
  #48
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If we get Richards I wouldn't mind seeing him and Kulemin switch spots, Kulemin-Richards-Kessel just screams elite to me.
This also bumps Lupul to his natural RW position, and if I remember correctly him and Macarthur are good friends since the junior days, I'm sure they'd like to play together. Lupul and Kulemin are similar players too, I think you would see equal production as last year.
Kulemin should be on a line with Kessel. He makes players better, who better then Kessel?

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05-26-2011, 03:33 PM
  #49
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If he can stay healthy, I'm positive he is a consistent 25+ goal scorer.

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05-26-2011, 03:45 PM
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Of course 50 and 55 are in the same range. Thats what Lupul has shown in the past he can do. No reason to expect with 1st line minutes he wouldn't be able to put up a 50pt season.

You suggested that from a cap perspective Lupul's contract is too big, I'm trying to point out that at 50pts he's not going to be a contract that is a burden on the team.

Boston: Horton & Ryder #4 and 5 @ 4 mill each

Every one of those teams was a playoff team and paying their 4 or 5th highest player 4 million or higher. Lupul is as good as some of those guys, better than a couple too. So really it's not out of the realm of possibility for that to be the case in two years for the leafs. And with a few exceptions those guys are all producing in the range of 50-60pts give or take.
Not sure why you keep disputing my post when your figures and expectations are similar to mine, which were based on what they should be based on contract $.

Take Boston for example as they're a Cup contender, a division rival for our Leafs and division leader. Lets compare Lupul's salary (outside of the vacuum) of Leafs team only, now to our competition.

Their highest paid forward Bergeron @$4.75 mil (80 games 22-35-57 points) is +$500k more than Lupul, who would be #2 @$4.25 mil highest among Boston's forwards.

Boston's entire 1st line Cap and production consisted of;

Milan Lucic @$4.08 mil (79 games 30-32-62 points)
David Krejci @$3.75 mil (75 games 13-49-62 points)
Nathan Horton $4.0 mil (80 games 26-27-53 points)

So why do you feel its unreasonable to expect Lupul making slightly more $$ and also playing on Leafs top line shouldn't be expected to produce in comparison similarly to our Div rivals top line, if we want our Leafs to be a competitive playoff team?.

If teams have 4 or 5 players outproducing our #2 highest than it makes it that much tougher to remain competitive. We certainly are not going to gain the advantage defensively as Bruins are one of the lowest goals against best defensive teams in the league.


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